Campaign 2012 has reached the stage where partisans have moved from attacking their opponents to attacking the polls. …
One common complaint in the current conservative fusillade is that many 2012 polls are using the “2008 turnout model.” …
In fact, the “2008 turnout model” critique is so far off base that responding to it simply entails explaining how polls work. [cont.]
Nate Cohn, New Republic
A common theme we keep hearing from conservatives who are unhappy with the public polls is that the surveys assume a 2012 electorate that looks a lot like the one in 2008. For instance, The Weekly Standard’s Jay Cost argues that we should be wary of polls showing a strong national and swing state advantage for President Obama for exactly that reason.
It’s worth considering Cost’s argument, because we’ll likely be hearing a lot of this. [cont.]
Jamelle Bouie, Washington Post
Three new Washington Post polls in swing states reveal a positive snapshot for President Obama, who holds leads in Ohio, Florida and Virginia. For most voters, the decision is over: More than eight in 10 of each candidate’s supporters say they will “definitely” vote for them.
But, which pieces of the support coalitions for President Obama and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney are the shakiest? [cont.]
Scott Clement, Washington Post
… [A] lack of weighing [for partisan identification] creates its own problems, which many pollsters often fail to acknowledge. Specifically, many polls have, in my judgment, overestimated the Democrats’ standing right now. I base this conclusion not on a secret, black box statistical methodology or some crystal ball, but rather on a read of American electoral history going back to 1972.
If I am right, then some of the polls are giving a false sense of the true state of the race, and will likely correct themselves at some point or another.
One important “tell” in my opinion, is this president’s continued weak position with independent voters, who remain the true swing vote. [cont.]
Jay Cost, Weekly Standard
Americans trust the judicial branch most and the legislative least of the three branches of government, with trust in the executive branch falling in between these two.
Trust in all three branches is up slightly this year, but from a longer-term perspective, the legislative branch has lost by far the most trust over the last 10 years. [cont.]
Frank Newport, Gallup
For weeks, Republicans in Ohio have been watching with worry that the state’s vital 18 electoral votes were trending away from Mitt Romney. The anxiety has been similar in Florida, where Republicans are concerned that President Obama is gaining the upper hand in the fight for the state’s 29 electoral vote
Those fears are affirmed in the findings of the latest Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News polls of likely voters in both states, which show that Mr. Obama has widened his lead over Mr. Romney and is outperforming him on nearly every major campaign issue, even though about half said they were disappointed in Mr. Obama’s presidency. [cont.]
Jim Rutenberg and Jeff Zeleny, New York Times
Republican Mitt Romney’s negative ratings are preventing him from capitalizing on President Barack Obama’s vulnerabilities in the race for the White House, according to a new poll that gives the incumbent a lead heading into the first of three presidential debates.
Half of Americans hold an unfavorable view of Romney — a September high for a presidential challenger in the last three decades — and 49 percent of likely voters consider the former Massachusetts governor out-of-touch compared with 40 percent who say that of Obama in the latest Bloomberg National Poll conducted Sept. 21-24. [cont.]
Julie Hirschfeld Davis, Bloomberg
It’s fairly clear that President Obama holds a healthy-sized lead in the race for president. … Yet, it is the pollsters who are showing the closest races – that is, in this contest, those the friendliest to Mitt Romney – who are, not surprisingly, receiving the most attention from conservatives. One of the two pollsters with consistently good Mitt Romney numbers compared to the average has been Rasmussen Reports. …
The other poll consistently favorable to Romney has an illustrious history. The Gallup poll has been around longer than most of us have been alive. … Gallup passes the press’s tests for a “legitimate” poll, which Rasmussen fails. …
The question is whether Gallup deserves the outsized attention it is receiving this year? The answer in my opinion is an unequivocal no. Here are three reasons why: [cont.]
Harry Enten, The Guardian