Eurozone (euro area)

Eurozone as of 2012   Non-eurozone areas using the euro
Currency	euro
Union type	Economic & Monetary
Established	1 January 1999
Members	17 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Future members Further usage
Governance
Political control	Euro Group
Group president	Jean-Claude Juncker
Issuing authority	European Central Bank
ECB president	Mario Draghi
Affiliated with	European Union
Statistics
Population (2011)	331,962,860[1]
GDP (2010)	€9.2 trillion[2]
Interest rate	1.00%[3]
Inflation	1.6%[4]
Unemployment	10%[5]
Trade balance	€0.9 bn surplus[6]

The eurozone ( pronunciation (help·info)), officially called the euro area,^[7] is an economic and monetary union (EMU) of 17 European Union (EU) member states that have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender. The eurozone currently consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Most other EU states are obliged to join once they meet the criteria to do so. No state has left and there are no provisions to do so or to be expelled.

Monetary policy of the zone is the responsibility of the European Central Bank (ECB) which is governed by a president and a board of the heads of national central banks. The principal task of the ECB is to keep inflation under control. Though there is no common representation, governance or fiscal policy for the currency union, some co-operation does take place through the Euro Group, which makes political decisions regarding the eurozone and the euro. The Euro Group is composed of the finance ministers of eurozone states, however in emergencies, national leaders also form the Euro Group.

Since the late-2000s financial crisis, the eurozone has established and used provisions for granting emergency loans to member states in return for the enactment of economic reforms. The eurozone has also enacted some limited fiscal integration, for example in peer review of each other's national budgets. The issue is highly political and in a state of flux as of 2011 in terms of what further provisions will be agreed for eurozone reform.

On occasion the eurozone is taken to include non-EU members who use the euro as their official currency. Some of these countries, like San Marino, have concluded formal agreements with the EU to use the currency and mint their own coins.^[8] Others, like Kosovo and Montenegro, have adopted the euro unilaterally. However, these countries do not formally form part of the eurozone and do not have representation in the ECB or the Euro Group.^[9]

Members[link]

In 1998 eleven European Union member states had met the convergence criteria, and the eurozone came into existence with the official launch of the euro (alongside national currencies) on 1 January 1999. Greece qualified in 2000 and was admitted on 1 January 2001 before physical notes and coins were introduced on 1 January 2002 replacing all national currencies. Between 2007 and 2011, five new states acceded.

  EU Eurozone (17)

  EU states obliged to join the Eurozone (8)

  EU states with an opt-out on Eurozone participation (2)

  States outside the EU with issuing rights (3)

  Other non-EU users of euro (4)

• v
• t
• e

State	Adopted	Population (Jan. 1, 2011)	Nominal GDP World Bank, 2009	Relative GDP of total (nominal)	Exceptions
Austria	01999-01-011 January 1999	&100000000084042520000008,404,252	&10000000000384908000000384,908	3.09%
Belgium	01999-01-011 January 1999	&1000000001091840500000010,918,405	&10000000000468522000000468,522	3.76%
Cyprus	02008-01-011 January 2008	&10000000000804435000000804,435	&1000000000002491000000024,910	0.20%	Northern Cyprus[note 1]
Estonia	02011-01-011 January 2011	&100000000013401940000001,340,194	&1000000000001912000000019,120	0.15%
Finland	01999-01-011 January 1999	&100000000053752760000005,375,276	&10000000000237512000000237,512	1.91%
France	01999-01-011 January 1999	&1000000006507537300000065,075,373	&100000000026493900000002,649,390	21.26%	New Caledonia[note 2]  French Polynesia[note 2]  Wallis and Futuna[note 2]
Germany	01999-01-011 January 1999	&1000000008175160200000081,751,602	&100000000033300320000003,330,032	26.73%
Greece	02001-01-011 January 2001	&1000000001132589700000011,325,897	&10000000000329924000000329,924	2.65%
Ireland	01999-01-011 January 1999	&100000000044808580000004,480,858	&10000000000227193000000227,193	1.82%
Italy	01999-01-011 January 1999	&1000000006062644200000060,626,442	&100000000021127800000002,112,780	16.96%	Campione d'Italia[note 3]
Luxembourg	01999-01-011 January 1999	&10000000000511840000000511,840	&1000000000005244900000052,449	0.42%
Malta	02008-01-011 January 2008	&10000000000417617000000417,617	&100000000000074490000007,449	0.06%
Netherlands	01999-01-011 January 1999	&1000000001665579900000016,655,799	&10000000000792128000000792,128	6.36%	Aruba[note 4] Curaçao[note 5] Sint Maarten[note 5] Caribbean Netherlands[note 6]
Portugal	01999-01-011 January 1999	&1000000001063697900000010,636,979	&10000000000227676000000227,676	1.83%
Slovakia	02009-01-011 January 2009	&100000000054352730000005,435,273	&1000000000008764200000087,642	0.70%
Slovenia	02007-01-011 January 2007	&100000000020501890000002,050,189	&1000000000004847700000048,477	0.39%
Spain	01999-01-011 January 1999	&1000000004615292600000046,152,926	&100000000014602500000001,460,250	11.72%
Eurozone		&10000000331963357000000331,963,357	&1000000001246036200000012,460,362	100%

Enlargement[link]

Ten countries (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Sweden, and the United Kingdom) are EU members but do not use the euro. Before joining the eurozone, a state must spend two years in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II). As of 2011, the National Central Banks (NCBs) of Latvia, Lithuania, and Denmark have participated in ERM II.

A clickable Euler diagram showing the relationships between various multinational European organisations.v • d • e

Denmark and the United Kingdom obtained special opt-outs in the original Maastricht Treaty. Both countries are legally exempt from joining the eurozone unless their governments decide otherwise, either by parliamentary vote or referendum. Sweden gained a de facto opt-out by using a legal loophole. It is required to join the eurozone as soon as it fulfils the convergence criteria, which include being part of ERM II for two years; joining ERM II is voluntary.^[10][11] Sweden has so far decided not to join ERM II.

The 2008 financial crisis increased interest in Denmark and initially in Poland to join the eurozone, and in Iceland to join the European Union, a pre-condition for adopting the euro.^[12] Since Latvia requested help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as a precondition, it may be forced to drop its currency peg. This would take Latvia out of ERM II and possibly move the euro adoption date even further from 2013 than currently planned.^[13] However, by 2010, the debt crisis in the euro zone caused interest from Poland and the Czech Republic to cool.^[14]

Non-member usage[link]

The euro is also used in countries outside the EU. Three states—Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City—^[15][16] have signed formal agreements with the EU to use the euro and mint their own coins. Nevertheless, they are not considered part of the eurozone by the ECB and do not have a seat in the ECB or Euro Group. Andorra reached a monetary agreement with the EU in June 2011 which will allow it to use the euro as its official currency when ratified. Under the agreement it is intended that Andorra should gain the right to mint its own euro coins as of 1 July 2013, provided that Andorra implements relevant EU legislation.^[17]

Some states (viz. Kosovo,^{[note 7]} and Montenegro) officially adopted the euro as their sole currency without an agreement and, therefore, have no issuing rights. These states are not considered part of the eurozone by the ECB. However, in some usage, the term eurozone is applied to all territories that have adopted the euro as their sole currency.^[18][19][20] Further unilateral adoption of the euro (euroisation), by both non-euro EU and non-EU members, is opposed by the ECB and EU.^[21]

Expulsion and secession[link]

While the eurozone is open to all EU member states to join once they meet the criteria, the treaty is silent on the matter of states leaving the eurozone, neither prohibiting nor permitting it. Likewise there is no provision for a state to be expelled from the euro.^[22] Some, however, including the Dutch government, favour such a provision being created in the event that a heavily indebted state in the eurozone refuses to comply with an EU economic reform policy.^[23]

The benefits of leaving the euro would vary depending on the exact situations. If the replacement currency were expected to devalue, the state would experience a large scale exodus of money, whereas if the currency were expected to appreciate then more money would flow into the economy. Even so a rapidly appreciating currency would be detrimental to the country's exports.^[24]

Administration and representation[link]

Euro Group President Jean-Claude Juncker

The monetary policy of all countries in the eurozone is managed by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Eurosystem which comprises the ECB and the central banks of the EU states who have joined the euro zone. Countries outside the eurozone are not represented in these institutions. Whereas all EU member states are part of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). Non EU member states have no say in all three institutions, even those with monetary agreements such as Monaco. The ECB is entitled to authorise the design and printing of euro banknotes and the volume of euro coins minted, and its president is currently Mario Draghi.

The eurozone is represented politically by its finance ministers, known collectively as the Euro Group, and is presided over by a president, currently Jean-Claude Juncker. The finance ministers of the EU member states that use the euro meet a day before a meeting of the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Ecofin) of the Council of the European Union. The Group is not an official Council formation but when the full EcoFin council votes on matters only affecting the eurozone, only Euro Group members are permitted to vote on it.^[25][26][27]

Since the global financial crisis first began in 2008, the Euro Group has met irregularly not as finance ministers, but as heads of state and government (like the European Council). It is in this forum, the Euro summit, that many eurozone reforms have been agreed. French President Nicolas Sarkozy is pushing, as of 2011, for these summits to become regular and twice a year in order for it to be a 'true economic government'.

On 15 April 2008 in Brussels, Juncker suggested that the eurozone should be represented at the International Monetary Fund as a bloc, rather than each member state separately: "It is absurd for those 15 countries not to agree to have a single representation at the IMF. It makes us look absolutely ridiculous. We are regarded as buffoons on the international scene."^[28] However Finance Commissioner Joaquín Almunia stated that before there is common representation, a common political agenda should be agreed.^[28]

Economy[link]

Comparison table[link]

^a GDP in PPP, exports/imports as goods and services excluding intra-EU trade.

Inflation[link]

HICP figures from the ECB, taken from May of each year:^[30]

Interest rates[link]

Interest rates for the eurozone, set by the ECB since 1999. Levels are in percentages per annum. Between to June 2000 and October 2008, the main refinancing operations were variable rate tenders, as opposed to fixed rate tenders. The figures indicated in the table from 2000 to 2008 refer to the minimum interest rate at which counterparties may place their bids.^[3]

Public debt[link]

The following table states the ratio of public debt to GDP in percent for Eurozone countries. The euro convergence criterion is 60 %.

Country	CIA 2007[31]	OECD 2009[32][33]	IMF 2009[34]	CIA 2009[35]	EuroStat 2010[36]
Austria	59.10	72.7	&1000000000000006709999967.10[37]	66.40	&1000000000000007229999972.3
Belgium	84.60	100.4	&1000000000000009370000093.70[38]	101.00	&1000000000000009679999996.8
Cyprus	59.60		&1000000000000005620000056.20[39]	56.20	&1000000000000006079999960.8
Estonia	3.40			7.10	&100000000000000065999996.6
Eurozone					&1000000000000008600000086.0[40]
Finland	35.90	52.6	&1000000000000004400000044.00[41]	40.30	&1000000000000004839999948.4
France	63.90	87.1	&1000000000000007809999978.10[42]	77.60	&1000000000000008170000081.7
Germany	64.90	76.5	&1000000000000007250000072.50[43]	77.20	&1000000000000008320000083.2
Greece	89.50	120.2		113.40	&10000000000000142800000142.8
Ireland	24.90	72.7	&1000000000000006400000064.00[44]	64.80	&1000000000000009620000096.2
Italy	104.00	127.7	&10000000000000115799999115.8[45]	115.80	&10000000000000119000000119.0
Luxembourg	6.40	18.0	&1000000000000001639999916.40[46]	14.60	&1000000000000001839999918.4
Malta				69.00	&1000000000000006800000068.0
Netherlands	45.50	69.4	&1000000000000005889999958.90[47]	60.90	&1000000000000006270000062.7
Portugal	63.60	86.3	&1000000000000007579999975.80[48]	76.80	&1000000000000009300000093.0
Slovakia	35.90	39.8	&1000000000000003570000035.70[49]	35.70	&1000000000000004100000041.0
Slovenia	23.60	44.1		31.30	&1000000000000003800000038.0
Spain	36.20	62.4	&1000000000000005320000053.20[50]	53.20	&1000000000000006010000060.1

Fiscal policies[link]

The primary means for fiscal coordination within the EU lies in the Broad Economic Policy Guidelines which are written for every member state, but with particular reference to the 17 current members of the eurozone. These guidelines are not binding, but are intended to represent policy coordination among the EU member states, so as to take into account the linked structures of their economies.

For their mutual assurance and stability of the currency, members of the eurozone have to respect the Stability and Growth Pact, which sets agreed limits on deficits and national debt, with associated sanctions for deviation. The Pact originally set a limit of 3% of GDP for the yearly deficit of all eurozone member states; with fines for any state which exceeded this amount. In 2005, Portugal, Germany, and France had all exceeded this amount, but the Council of Ministers had not voted to fine those states. Subsequently, reforms were adopted to provide more flexibility and ensure that the deficit criteria took into account the economic conditions of the member states, and additional factors.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development downgraded its economic forecasts on 20 March 2008 for the eurozone for the first half of 2008. Europe does not have room to ease fiscal or monetary policy, the 30-nation group warned. For the euro zone, the OECD now forecasts first-quarter GDP growth of just 0.5%, with no improvement in the second quarter, which is expected to show just a 0.4% gain.

The European Fiscal Union is a proposal for a treaty about fiscal integration described in a decision adopted on 9 December 2011 by the European Council. The participants are the Eurozone member states and all other EU members except for the United Kingdom. Treaty text is still to be drafted and participation approvals from national parliaments are still to be granted.^[51]

Bailout provisions[link]

The late-2000s financial crisis prompted a number of reforms in the eurozone.^[52] One was a u-turn on the eurozone's bailout policy that led to the creation of a specific fund to assist eurozone states in trouble. The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Financial Stability Mechanism (EFSM) were created in 2010 to provide, alongside the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a system and fund to bail out members. However the EFSF and EFSM were temporary, small and lacked a basis in the EU treaties. Therefore, it was agreed in 2011 to establish a European Stability Mechanism (ESM) which would be much larger, funded only by eurozone states (not the EU as a whole as the EFSF/EFSM were) and would have a permanent treaty basis. As a result of that its creation involved agreeing an amendment to TEFU Article 136 allowing for the ESM and a new ESM treaty to detail how the ESM would operate. If both are successfully ratified according to schedule, the ESM would be operational by the time the EFSF/EFSM expire in mid-2013.

Peer review[link]

Strong EU oversight in the fields of taxation and budgetary policy and the enforcement mechanisms that go with it have sometimes been described as potential infringements on the sovereignty of eurozone member states^[53] However, in June 2010, a broad agreement was finally reached on a controversial proposal for member states to peer review each others' budgets prior to their presentation to national parliaments. Although showing the entire budget to each other was opposed by Germany, Sweden and the UK, each government would present to their peers and the Commission their estimates for growth, inflation, revenue and expenditure levels six months before they go to national parliaments. If a country was to run a deficit, they would have to justify it to the rest of the EU while countries with a debt more than 60% of GDP would face greater scrutiny.^[54]

The plans would apply to all EU members, not just the eurozone, and have to be approved by EU leaders along with proposals for states to face sanctions before they reach the 3% limit in the Stability and Growth Pact. Poland has criticised the idea of withholding regional funding for those who break the deficit limits, as that would only impact the poorer states.^[54] In June 2010 France agreed to back Germany's plan for suspending the voting rights of members who breach the rules.^[55] In March 2011 was initiated a new reform of the Stability and Growth Pact aiming at straightening the rules by adopting an automatic procedure for imposing of penalties in case of breaches of either the deficit or the debt rules.^[56][57]

See also[link]

European Union portal

• Special member state territories and the European Union
• Sixpack (EU)

Notes[link]

References[link]

External links[link]

Wikisource has original text related to this article: Consolidated version of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union/Title VIII: Economic and Monetary Policy

• European Central Bank
• Central Bank Rates, ECB Key Rate, chart and data
• European Commission – Economic and Financial Affairs – Eurozone

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Gerald Celente (born November 29, 1946) is an American trend forecaster,^[1][2] publisher of the Trends Journal, business consultant^[3] and author who makes predictions about the global financial markets and other events of historical importance. Celente has described himself as a "political atheist" and "citizen of the world".^[4] He has appeared as a guest on television news shows such as The Oprah Winfrey Show, The Today Show, Good Morning America, CBS Morning News, The Glenn Beck Show, NBC Nightly News, The Alex Jones Show and Russia Today.^[5][6][7]

Background[link]

Celente was born in The Bronx, New York City, New York. He had early political experience running a mayoral campaign in Yonkers, New York and served as executive assistant to the secretary of the New York State Senate, which Celente called the worst job he ever had.^[8] From 1973 to 1979 Celente traveled between Chicago and Washington D.C. as a government affairs specialist.^[8] In 1980 Celente founded The Trends Research Institute (at first called the Socio-Economic Research Institute of America), now located in Kingston, New York, publisher of the Trends Journal which forecasts and analyzes business, socioeconomic, political, and other trends.^[9]

Forecasting[link]

His forecasts since 1993 ^[10] have included predictions about terrorism, economic collapses and war. More recent forecasts involve fascism in the United States, food riots and tax revolts.^{[3][11][12][13][14][15]} Celente has long predicted global anti-Americanism, a failing economy and immigration woes in the U.S.^[11] In December 2007 Celente wrote, "Failing banks, busted brokerages, toppled corporate giants, bankrupt cities, states in default, foreign creditors cashing out of US securities ... whatever the spark, the stage is set for panic in the streets" and "Just as the Twin Towers collapsed from the top down, so too will the U.S. economy ... when the giant firms fall, they’ll crush the man on the street." He has also predicted tax revolts.^[16][17] In November 2008 Celente appeared on Fox Business Network and predicted economic depression, tax rebellions and food riots in the United States by 2012.^[18] Celente also predicted an "economic 9/11" and a "panic of 2008."^[19]

In 2009 Celente predicted turmoil which he described as "Obamageddon" and he was a popular guest on conservative cable-TV shows such as Fox News Sunday and Glenn Beck's television program.^[6] In April 2009 Celente wrote, "Wall Street controls our financial lives; the media manipulates our minds. These systems cannot be changed from within. There is no alternative. Without a revolution, these institutions will bankrupt the country, keep fighting failed wars, start new ones, and hold us in perpetual intellectual subjugation."^[20] He appeared on the Glenn Beck show and criticized the U.S. stimulus plan of 2009, calling government controlled capitalism "fascism" and saying shopping malls in the U.S. would become "ghost malls."^[21] Celente has said, "smaller communities, the smaller groups, the smaller states, the more self-sustaining communities, will 'weather the crisis in style' as big cities and hypertrophic suburbias descend into misery and conflict," and forecasts "a downsizing of America."^[14]

Revolution in the USA[link]

On Russia Today, he predicted that the USA would face a revolution.^[22]

Neosurvivalism[link]

Celente's website has stated that:

Predictions[link]

2009[link]

"The Crash of '09 was as dramatic as the crash of '29. The New Depression had begun." (Trends Journal, Summer 2008, pg. 12)

2010[link]

Some areas of the U.S. are experiencing resurgences in real estate values due to highly localized factors, and some investors profit from this. However, the rises will almost all stop and reverse with time, and the overall national trend in real estate values is downward. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 8)

Ghost malls have become a common sight across America. Especially hard-hit are big chain stores (Sears, Home Depot, etc.). (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 8)

2011[link]

Developers have begun rehabbing some of the ghost malls for more productive uses. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 9)

2012[link]

The economic policies of the U.S. government over the past few years have failed to fix America's fundamental problems and have merely papered over them and in fact made them worse. By 2012, the "American Empire" is collapsing. In the U.S., basic staple goods like quality food and water are too expensive for most people to afford,(T.J. Summer 08, pg. 1) and "food riots" happen across the country (T.J. Summer 09, pg.1). Major American cities look like disaster zones, and mass homelessness exists across the country. Crime is rampant, with much of it being directed at the rich. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 1) Kidnappings and ransomings of rich people are on the rise. Average people fed up with big government, high taxes and out-of-control spending join tax revolts. (T.J. Summer 09, pg. 1) The world is also experiencing major environmental problems and "the blackest of plagues." The global financial system has also "melted down" and the situation is very bad outside the U.S.(T.J. Summer 08, pg. 1) The advanced industrial economies collapse first, and their sagging consumer spending drags down the export-based economies of emerging economies next.(T.J. Summer 09, pg. 2) The economy is as bad as it was during the Great Depression in many ways. In spite of all this, the U.S. government, power elites, and mainstream media continue to insist that the fundamentals of the world economy are sound, and that official policies can lead to a recovery. A growing number of average people, however, doubt this. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 1)

While the Mayan and Hopi prophecies of global destruction do not come to pass, 2012 is indeed a watershed year that sees the death of an ailing and unsustainable global economic system and lifestyle and its replacement with something better. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 2)

By 2012, Obama is viewed by most as a stale president who sold himself as a fresh, visionary candidate in 2008 and instead proved to be a servant of the big corporations and the military-industrial complex like his predecessors.(T.J. Summer 09, pg. 5) His economic policies only delayed disaster and in fact have made the situation worse: Expansionary monetary policy and the various government bailouts and stimulus programs create a "Bailout Bubble" that invariably bursts in a cataclysm for the U.S. and world economy.(T.J. Summer 09, pg. 11) Obama blames other factors for this and might have even tried to start a war by 2012 to distract attention from the domestic misery.(T.J. Summer 09, pg. 12) Obama's foreign policy has also failed to accomplish anything significant on the world stage, and Pakistan is a mess and the Afghan war continues to drag on without hope of conclusion.(T.J. Summer 09, pg. 12)

In the 2012 U.S. elections, online news sites, bloggers and independent journalists wield as much influence on voters as mainstream media outlets (TV, cable, magazines, newspapers) for the first time. This breaks the corporate and moneyed stranglehold on American politics and allows a third party to attain nation-level recognition. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 5)

Broad future trends[link]

Americans will adapt to lower standards of living and will travel less, both on a daily basis and for vacations. Higher fuel costs, advances in telecommuting and an aging American population will push many more people to work from home or close to home. Walking-distance communities will be constructed and will become popular. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 7)

Geographically isolated resort destinations like Las Vegas will wither due to higher fuel costs, lower American incomes and increased overseas competition while vacation spots closer to population centers will revive. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 9)

Government-run lotteries, on the other hand, will thrive. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 9)

In America and to a lesser extent overseas, consumer spending habits will be motivated out of fear and escapism. Businesses that capitalize upon this will succeed. (T.J. Summer 09, pg. 24)

Publications[link]

• Trend Tracking: The System to Profit from Today's Trends (1991), ISBN 978-0446392877
• Trends 2000: How to Prepare for and Profit from the Changes of the 21st Century (1997), ISBN 978-0446519014
• What Zizi Gave Honeyboy: A True Story about Love, Wisdom, and the Soul of America (2002), ISBN 978-0066212661

References[link]