24/7 Wall St.

Zecco Morning Report (OCT 8 2009)

<Section>MARKET UPDATE </Section>
<ArticleDate>2009-10-08 </ArticleDate>
<market_commentary>
Equities are much after Alcoa (AA) kicked off earnings season last night with a bang.  DJIA futures are up about 75 points and S&P futures are up about 9 points. Late morning trading in Europe has the FTSE up 0.6%, the CAC in France up 1.1% and the DAX in Germany up 1.2%.  In Asia, Hong Kong rose 1.2% and Japan rose 0.35%.

Treasury prices are lower with the 10-year yielding 3.195% and the 30-year is yielding 4.01%.  Asian central banks are intervening to protect the US Dollar.

Commodities are higher this morning along with equities: NYMEX WTI Crude is up $0.65 per barrel at $70.22 and gold is up 1.1% at $1,054.00 per ounce.

</market_commentary>

<Section>ECONOMIC & MACRO EVENTS</Section>
<ArticleDate>2009-10-08 </ArticleDate>
<EconomicMacro>
These are today’s top economic data:
8:30 AM EST Weekly Jobless Claims
10:00 AM EST Wholesale Inventories (AUG)
10:30 AM EST Weekly Natural Gas Inventories

Earnings Today: CalAmp (CAMP), International Speedway (ISCA), <arriott (MAR), Nu Horizons (NUHC), Pepsico (PEP).

</EconomicMacro>

<UpgradesDowngradesSection>ANALYST UPGRADES &  DOWNGRADES
<Upgrades>
Adobe (ADBE) Raised to Outperform at RW Baird.
Clorox (CLX) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Goldman Sachs (GS) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Morgan Stanley (MS) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Monster Worldwide (MWW) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Rackspace (RAX) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.

</Upgrades>

<Downgrades>
BB&T (BBT) Started as Sell at UBS.
Broadcom (BRCM) Cut to Neutral at RW Baird.
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) Started as Sell at UBS.
L-3 Communications (LLL) Cut to Conviction Sell List from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
PNC Financial (PNC) Started as Sell at UBS.
Prosperity Bancshares (PRSP) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
SunTrust (STI) Started as Sell at UBS.
Wells Fargo (WFC) Started as Sell at UBS.

</Downgrades>
</UpgradesDowngradesSection>

<Section>BULLISH EVENTS </Section>
<CompanyName> ALCOA </CompanyName>
<Exchange>NYSE </Exchange>
<Symbol>AA </Symbol>
<Sentiment>Bull</Sentiment>
<Rank>1</Rank>
<ArticleDate>2009-10-08 </ArticleDate>
<Summary> Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) rose after earnings.  The aliminum giant led metals higher after the company posted a surprise profit as most analysts were expecting a quarterly loss to be the end result.  </Summary>

<CompanyName>PepsiCo   </CompanyName>
<Exchange>NYSE </Exchange>
<Symbol>PEP </Symbol>
<Sentiment> Bull</Sentiment>
<Rank>2</Rank>
<ArticleDate>2009-10-08 </ArticleDate>
<Summary> PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) just posted earnings at $1.09 EPS on $11.08 billion in revenues.  Thomson Reuters had estimates at $1.03 EPS and $11.26 billion in revenues.  The net earnings of $1.72 billion compares to $1.58 billion a year ago. </Summary>

<CompanyName>ScanSource </CompanyName>
<Exchange>NASDAQ </Exchange>
<Symbol>SCSC </Symbol>
<Sentiment> Bull</Sentiment>
<Rank>3</Rank>
<ArticleDate>2009-10-08 </ArticleDate>
<Summary> ScanSource Inc. (SCSC) has raised its first-quarter sales guidance to a range of $480 million to $488 million for the quarter ended September 30.  Thomson Reuters has estimates at $450 million, but this is down from $539.8 million a year ago.
  </Summary>

<CompanyName> Zumiez </CompanyName>
<Exchange>NASDAQ </Exchange>
<Symbol> ZUMZ </Symbol>
<Sentiment> Bull</Sentiment>
<Rank>4</Rank>
<ArticleDate>2009-10-08 </ArticleDate>
<Summary> Zumiez (ZUMZ) has traded very little, but the retailer posted a drop of less than 1% in September same store sales  </Summary>

<CompanyName> Hot Topic </CompanyName>
<Exchange>NASDAQ </Exchange>
<Symbol>HOTT </Symbol>
<Sentiment> Bull</Sentiment>
<Rank>5</Rank>
<ArticleDate>2009-10-08 </ArticleDate>
<Summary> Hot Topic (HOTT) brought in same store sales for September at -4.0%, but this was better than what was expected.  As many traders have been using this is a teen-bogey, shares rose 7% on the news. </Summary>

<Section>BEARISH EVENTS</Section>
<CompanyName> Finisar </CompanyName>
<Exchange>NASDAQ </Exchange>
<Symbol>FNSRD </Symbol>
<Sentiment> Bear</Sentiment>
<Rank>1</Rank>
<ArticleDate>2009-10-08 </ArticleDate>
<Summary> Finisar (NASDAQ: FNSRD) used to trade as FNSR, but this stock tanked after the close.  This is what happened after a $75 million capital raise was announced via the sale of convertible notes. </Summary>

<CompanyName> Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc.  </CompanyName>
<Exchange>NASDAQ </Exchange>
<Symbol>SVNT </Symbol>
<Sentiment> Bear</Sentiment>
<Rank>2</Rank>
<ArticleDate>2009-10-08 </ArticleDate>
<Summary> Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SVNT) is down on reports that it would sell some 4 million shares of common stock.  Based on the close, that generate $60 million in stock being sold versus a market cap of $928 million.  The drop is somewhere around 7% on the news. </Summary>

<CompanyName> RINO International Corporation </CompanyName>
<Exchange>NASDAQ </Exchange>
<Symbol>RINO </Symbol>
<Sentiment>Bear</Sentiment>
<Rank>3</Rank>
<ArticleDate>2009-10-08 </ArticleDate>
<Summary> RINO International Corporation (RINO) traded down by some 4% after word that it filed a mnized securities shelf to allow the firm to raise capital via the sale of multiple classes of securities.   </Summary>

<CompanyName>Live Nation </CompanyName>
<Exchange>NYSE </Exchange>
<Symbol>LYV </Symbol>
<Sentiment> Bear</Sentiment>
<Rank>4</Rank>
<ArticleDate>2009-10-08 </ArticleDate>
<Summary> The U.K. merger regulator has decided that a proposed merger between Live Nation (LYV) and Ticketmaster (TKTM) would prevent new competitors from being able to open for ticket retailing activities. It also fears that this could lead to higher ticket prices.  </Summary>

<CompanyName> IBM </CompanyName>
<Exchange>NYSE </Exchange>
<Symbol>IBM </Symbol>
<Sentiment> Bear</Sentiment>
<Rank>5</Rank>
<ArticleDate>2009-10-08 </ArticleDate>
<Summary>IBM (IBM) is facing a DOJ inquiry over antitrust behavior.  The reports are that IBM mainframes did not allow non-IBM compliant software to properly function on the mainframes, which IBM has effectively said is not the case.  </Summary>

Week Ahead: Coke vs. Pepsi Investor Taste Test (KO, PEP)

This coming week will mark the earnings reports for two key household consumer stocks, both of which are supposed to be defensive.  The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) reports earnings on Thursday while Pepsico Inc. (NYSE: PEP) issues results Friday.

IMF: Depression May Have Already Started

For some countries, it may already be too late to keep their economies in a recession, hoping for a recovery late in the year.

That notion would make some sense. In the US and UK, unemployment is almost certainly headed toward 10%. If people out of work and no longer looking for jobs are included, the figure could move much closer to 15%.

Consumer and business spending have virtually shut down because of a lack of access to credit. In the US, several major industries may be in the late stages of complete failure. This would almost certainly include the retail and automotive sectors, and could, if the government does not take appropriate action, move to the largest financial firms.

The 52-Week Low Club (SKX)(AIG)(EXXI)

Skechers (SKX) Big loss and analysts cuts. The daily double. Drops to $7.11 from 52-week high of $25.20.

AIG (AIG) Report says government investment in the company is a bust. Sells down to $.90 from 52-week high of $52.41.

Energy Xxi (EXXI) No news. Shares have been dropping forever. Off to $.57 from 52-week high of $7.93.

Douglas A. McIntyre

GE Finally Opens Door To Dividend Cut (GE)

General Electric Company (NYSE:GE) has authorized its regular quarterly dividend of $0.31 per share.  This will keep the dividend the same, but if you read into Jeff Immelt's comments, it seems as though he is preparing investors for a cut.  We think the line is drawn in the sand.  Finally.

The Ten Companies That Will Lead The US Out Of The Recession

There are an extremely small number of companies which are likely to do relatively well during the recession, either because they are the market share leaders in their industries by a wide margin, or they are in businesses which sell products and services which are a necessary part of everyday life.

Wal-Mart (WMT) recently announced that its same store sales in January were up 2.1%, which was more than forecast. With the company's huge network of stores and ability to strong arm suppliers, Wal-Mart offers shoppers good merchandise at prices which becomes more and more attractive as the downturn continues.

McDonald's (MCD) says its same-store sales are holding up fairly well. Its "value meal" concept is likely to keep customers returning to its restaurants for plentiful and inexpensive food.

Colgate (CL) sales have also held up well as the recession has deepened. People are going to buy toothpaste and shampoo unless they are completely out of money.

Over the last year, shares of Colgate, Wal-Mart, and McDonald's have significantly outperformed the DJIA.

The signals of a recovery will probably come from companies which are No. 2 or No.3 in their industries. It will be telling if they can begin to show even slightly improving trends operating in the shadow of larger competitors. The other area of corporate America worth watching is the sectors which have done substantially worse than most. That includes airlines, automobiles, and media companies.

Looking though a list of some of America's largest companies to find firms which fit these descriptions, 24/7 Wall St. identified ten companies to watch for the signs of an economic recovery. A reasonable quarter or a slightly better-than-expected outlook from some of these companies should show that the recession is coming to a close.

Constellation Energy Exits North American Gas Trading Business (CEG, GS)

In its seemingly never-ending quest to raise cash, Constellation Energy Group, Inc. (NYSE:CEG) has sold its downstream natural gas trading business to the North American trading arm of Australia's Macquarie Group. Financial details of the sale were not disclosed. Last month, the company sold its international commodities trading operations to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS).

salesforce.com, Failed Coup or Poor Results?

If this was during good times, we'd be under the impression that there was a failed coup inside salesforce.com, Inc. (NYSE: CRM).  Steve Cakebread, the company's president & chief strategist, has resigned.  And there are two other departures as well.  It seems that the economy may be catching up to salesforce.com faster than was expected late last year.

Allis-Chalmers... Too Little, Too Late? (ALY)

We noted this morning that Allis-Chalmers Energy Inc. (NYSE:ALY) had been downgraded and that the oil field services sector as a whole faced a more general turn south from at least S&P with warnings of more oil drillers and services sector company downgrades. In an effort to stop the bleeding, Allis-Chalmers announced cost reduction steps that it says will reduce its costs by $21.7 million annually. Included in that number are 235 jobs that will be cut.

ETF Launch: Colombia ETF... Really (GXG, EC, CIB)

Exchange Traded Funds have been going through some changes. New ETF's are coming to market while others are de-listing because of lack of interest.  Today is marking the launch of an ETF that will allow US investors the first public exchange traded vehicle to get exposure to Columbia.  Global X Management Company and Colombian broker InterBolsa S.A. Comisionista de Bolsa have launched the Global X/InterBolsa FTSE Colombia 20 ETF (NYSE: GXG).  You can probably imagine all the jokes that will be coming for this one, but the Colombian market has for all practical purposes been unavailable to US investors.

Evergreen... or Nevergreen (ESLR)

The sun is not shining on solar stocks these days. Evergreen Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:ESLR) reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $52.1 million (EPS of -$0.32) on revenue of $44.2 million. Analysts had expected an EPS loss of -$0.14 on revenue of $46.5 million.  Evergreen's woes are the result of a plant closure, an equipment write-down, and start-up costs on new plants in Massachusetts and Michigan. According to Reuters, the company missed its own fourth-quarter forecasts for revenue and gross margins.

The share price fell in after-hours trading to $1.99, from a closing price of $2.22. The 52-week low for Evergreen was $1.89.... we are currently under that level.

Paul Ausick
February 6, 2009

Pipeline Company Predicts Weaker 2009 (OKE, OKS)

ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE:OKE) and its pipeline partnership ONEOK Partners, L.P. (NYSE:OKS) have issued guidance for 2008 and 2009. ONEOK has affirmed 2008 EPS "at the low end" of the $2.95-$3.05 range it had previously announced. ONEOK Partners expects to end up in the "lower half" of earlier 2008 guidance of $5.95-$6.15 per common unit, and distributable cash flow of $625-$655 million.

Everyone Comes to Bank of America's Aid (BAC)

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) is gapping up over 13% this morning.  Keep in mind that there was already a huge recovery from yesterday's lows that went under $4.00, but this gap-up is on the continued hopes and calls that there will be no nationalization and that the bank will make it.  CNBC's Maria Bartiromo is also interviewing CEO Ken Lewis later this morning.   

JP Morgan Said General Electric (GE) Triple-A Rating Not Sustainable And Dividend Will Likely Be Cut

JP Morgan commented on General Electric (NYSE: GE), saying the triple-A credit rating is not sustainable and the dividend will likely be cut. The firm also cut their estimates and price target from $13 to $9.

The firm said fundamental pressures continues to mount on GE's earnings stream, especially at GE Capital.

Read more...

After 7.6% Unemployment, Double-Digit Risks Now Look Real

The dreaded and feared employment data is out, and it isn't pretty.  Unemployment came in at 7.6% and the change in non-farm payrolls was -598,000.

Dow Jones had estimates at 7.5% unemployment and non-farm payrolls coming in at -525,000 jobs.  Bloomberg had estimates from economists being 7.5% unemployment and non-farm payrolls at -524,000.  We heard many outside calls as recently as yesterday for a report closer to the vicinity of -600,000 non-farm payrolls.

Carl Icahn Goes After Biogen Idec (BIIB)

Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB) is coming under fire from activist investor Carl Icahn this morning.  A release came out as a "shareholder proposal" from Icahn Partners LP.  He is asking for four positions for new board members, as well as jurisdiction changes.

Top Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades (CAVM, COST, EVVV, MET, SE, TOT)

These are some of the top pre-market analyst upgrades and downgrades we are seeing from Wall Street this Friday morning with more than two hours until the open:

• Cavium Networks (CAVM) Started as Buy at Piper Jaffray.
• CostCo Wholesale (COST) Raised to Buy at UBS.
• EV3 (EVVV) Started as Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
• MetLife (MET) Raised to Buy at B of A Merrill Lynch.
• Spectra Energy (SE) Raised to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies.
• Total S.A. (TOT) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.

Jon C. Ogg
February 6, 2009

Top Pre-Market Analyst Downgrades (LNT, CNP, ESLR, FORR, IFF, LTM, LQDT, NTRS, OPXT, REG)

These are the top analyst downgrades and negative research calls we have seen on Wall Street this Friday with more than two hours until the market opens:

• Alliant Energy (LNT) Cut to Neutral at Baird.
• CenterPoint (CNP) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
• Evergreen Solar (ESLR) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Forrester Research (FORR) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair.
• International Flavors (IFF) Cut to Underweight at KeyBanc.
• Life Time Fitness (LTM) Cut to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan.
• Liquidity Services (LQDT) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
• Northern Trust (NTRS) Cut to Market Perform at KBW.
• Opnext (OPXT) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
• Regency Centers (REG) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.

Jon C. Ogg
February 6, 2009

Is Chrysler Near The End? Management Press Dealers To Order More Cars

Car dealers don't want more cars. They have them stacked up on their lots, many several months old and rusting. Most dealers are paying interest on that inventory. They borrowed to have them trucked in.

It is the goal of most dealers to sell what they have and not take what they cannot sell.

TARP Funds Were Badly Invested, Unless They Kept Banks In Business

It is wonderful to watch boobs look back at history. It takes great skill to examine details and miss the obvious.

The Congressional Oversight Panel which is reviewing how well TARP money was spent by the Treasury says taxpayers got a raw deal.

No Car Company Will Ever Outperform Toyota (TM)

Barry Bonds' home run record will never be broken. No car company will ever do better than Toyota (TM).

The Japanese company said it would lose $4 billion in the current fiscal and was hit with a downgrade from Moody's. Those were the rewards for becoming the No.1 automaker in the world.

Who Hired All The People Who Are Getting Laid Off?

Some of the companies that need to let people go have lost such a large portion of their sales that they have virtually no choice but to cut staff. That certainly holds true for GM (GM) and United Airlines (UAUA).

There are a number of firms which are looking at 2009 and making prophylactic layoffs. They reasonably assume that their business prospects will get worse, but, in some cases not much worse.

Suddenly, The Talk Turns To Depression

A number of seemingly unrelated pieces of news in the last day showed that several high profile people and organizations are at least considering the idea that the global economy could slip into a depression.

It was a bad day for anyone hoping to see stimulus money put to work creating jobs quickly. Those for and against the Administration's plan to right the economy spent the day shooting mortar rounds at one another in the Capitol.

In the financial sector, rumors that Bank of America (BAC) might be nationalized nearly turned shares in the firm into a penny stock.

Media Digest 2/6/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

According to Reuters, Democrats say that the Senate will pass the stimulus bill today.

Reuters reports that Moody's cut Toyota's (TM) rating for the first time in 10 years.

Reuters writes that estimates are that the US lost 525,000 jobs in January.

Reuters reports that investments in AIG (AIG) and Citigroup (C) bought the government the least value for its money among financial firms it has given money.

Asia Markets And Europe Open 2/6/2009

Markets in Asia were narrowly mixed.

The Nikkei fell 1.1% to 7,950.

The Hang Seng rose .9% to 13,178.

The Shanghai Composite fell .5% to 2,098.

At the open in Europe, the FTSE was up ,2%, The Dax rose ,4% to 4,429. The CAC 40 was up .6% to 3,083.

Data from Reuters and Marketwatch.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Can Biogen Idec Earnings Generate A Buyout? (BIIB, AMGN, GILD, GENZ, CELG, MRK, SNY, GSK)

Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) is set to report earnings on Friday morning.  What many investors probably want to know is if these results -- or more importantly its guidance -- show that this company will be an acquisition target by a larger rival.

S&P; Pans Retailer Ratings (DDS, M, JWN, JCP, SHLD, BONT, KSS, SKS)

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services has put six department store companies on CreditWatch with negative implications and has changed the outlook on three department store companies to negative from stable.  Moody's & Fitch either downgraded or warned of possible downgrades.  Dillard's Inc. (NYSE: DDS), Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP), Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD), Bon-Ton Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: BONT), Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS), and Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) were all part of the S&P call late today.

Oil Services & Drillers Brace For S&P; Ratings Cut (ALY, HERO, PKD)

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services downgraded several oilfield services and drilling companies.  Among the companies the ratings agencies took action were Allis-Chalmers Energy Inc. (NYSE: ALY), Hercules Offshore Inc. (NASDAQ: HERO) and Parker Drilling Co. (NYSE: PKD).  The problem is that it does not stop here.  S&P said its review is not over and it expects more negative ratings actions over the coming days.

Murdoch & News Corp. Tread Through Earnings (NWS)

News Corporation Limited (NYSE: NWS) has just reported earnings.  You know there is no chance that the company was going to be immune to the major slowdown in advertising and earnings.  What is interesting is that the stock was up initially after the report.

B of A CEO & Insiders Buying Stock (BAC)

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) was already trading as though the options traders were placing a bet today "against nationalization" and now we are getting more news from the company.  SEC filings are showing that key company insiders are buying up stock now that the shares are trading below $5.00.

Options Bet: No Bank of America Nationalization (BAC)

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) has been the worst performer this year in the financial sector, or at least of all the large money center banks.  The reasons are more on fears but the fears have been creating some actual reactions with dire consequences.  And suddenly, Senator Dodd's comments about not nationalizing Bank of America and the possibility of loosening or tweaking the mark-to-market rules have offered some stability.  Shares are back up to flat today and we have seen more than 500 million shares trade hands.

Has Gold Peaked? (ABX, GG, NEM, AU, GLD, GTU, DGL, IAU)

When the going gets tough, the tough go for gold. That's historically the way it's worked out. And the going is definitely tough now. So what about gold? Is it going up or down? Is gold the place to be right now?

Gold miners such as Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:ABX), Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE:GG), Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE:NEM), and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE:AU) offer one way to invest in gold. There is also a mining ETF, Miners Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE:GDX). Another way to invest in gold is either by buying bullion directly or investing in bullion through a commodity ETF such as SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) or PowerShares DB Gold (NYSE:DGL).

Uranium Enrichment Plant Development Slows (USU)

USEC Inc. (NYSE:USU) today announced that it plans to initiate "reduce the planned escalation of project construction and machine manufacturing activities" at its uranium enrichment plant in Piketon, Ohio. The company cited delays in securing a government loan guarantee as the culprit.

IMF Confirms What Bank Stocks Already Show

Bank of America (BAC) hit another 52-week low today at $3.77. Wells Fargo (WFC) got close.

The IMF said that that the banking crisis is far from over.

GE's (GE) Immelt Says Economy As Bad As Early 70s, Maybe Worse

It is worth noting when the head of the world's largest conglomerate comments on how bad the economy. Jeff Immelt made some grim comments this morning. They speak for themselves.

According to Reuters, "The U.S. economy is in its worst shape since the deep recession of 1974 and 1975, and if it deteriorates further the most meaningful comparisons will be to the Great Depression, General Electric Co (GE.N) Chief Executive Jeff Immelt said."

Douglas A. McIntyre