The Baseball Prospectus team is hardly alone in their skepticism: various baseball analysts, including Bill James, Pete Palmer, and Dick Cramer, have similarly found so-called "clutch hitting" ability to be a myth. This is not to say that clutch hits, like those listed below, do not exist, but rather that any innate ability to perform well in high-pressure situations is an illusion. In his 1984 Baseball Abstract, James framed the problem with clutch hitting thusly: "How is it that a player who possesses the reflexes and the batting stroke and the knowledge and the experience to be a .260 hitter in other circumstances magically becomes a .300 hitter when the game is on the line? How does that happen? What is the process? What are the effects? Until we can answer those questions, I see little point in talking about clutch ability." Most studies on the matter involved comparing performance in the "clutch" category of statistics (production with runners in scoring position, performance late in close games, etc.) between seasons; if clutch hitting were an actual skill, it would follow that the same players would do well in the clutch statistics year in and year out (the correlation coefficient between players' performances over multiple seasons would be high). Cramer's study was the first of its kind, and it found that clutch hitting numbers between seasons for the same player varied wildly; in fact, the variance was the kind one would expect if the numbers had been selected randomly. Since Cramer published his results, many others have tried to find some evidence that clutch hitting is a skill, but almost every study has confirmed Cramer's initial findings: that "clutch hitting," in terms of certain players being able to "rise to the occasion" under pressure, is an illusion.
The explanation offered by most skeptics is that players who have several memorable hits in big games, especially early in their careers, acquire the mantle of "clutch hitter," and fans then unconsciously watch for such hits in the future from those players in particular, falsely reinforcing their beliefs over time. Despite the evidence, many people in baseball steadfastly believe in the idea of the clutch hitter. Derek Jeter once told Sports Illustrated after SI reported to the Yankees shortstop that many analysts deny clutch hitting as a skill, "You can take those stat guys and throw them out the window."
In many cases, a simple review of statistics debunks the notion that certain players are "clutch" performers. Baseball's Reggie Jackson has long been known as "Mr. October" because of his alleged ability to elevate his game in the post-season. A look at his post-season statistics is instructive. In 281 post-season at-bats, Jackson batted .278 with 18 homers and 48 RBIs. Extrapolated, that would mean 36 homers and 96 RBIs in a full season, which is approximately what we would expect from Jackson in a typical season. The numbers suggest that Reggie Jackson was not a "clutch" performer but a very solid player who performed about the same in the regular season and the post-season.
Similarly, despite his reputation as a "money pitcher," Jack Morris had a post-season E.R.A. of 3.80, almost exactly the same as his career 3.90 E.R.A. in the regular season. And Derek Jeter, supposedly a "clutch" hitter, has batted .314 in the post-season, almost the same as his career .317 average in the regular season.
At the same time, skeptics note that, over his career, Robert Horry has hit 36.3% of his 3-point shot attempts in the post-season. Horry's career 3-point shot percentage is almost exactly the same. Hence, while Horry has hit some very memorable shots in important games, he has not "elevated" his performance in the post-season. Rather, he has performed in the post-season just as he always has in the regular season.
Steve Kerr is another NBA player who, while not a superstar by any stretch of the imagination, always seemed to be in the middle of big playoff moments. In 1997, it was Kerr who took the pass from Michael Jordan and made the game-winning shot in Game Six of the NBA Finals against the Utah Jazz, giving the Bulls back-to-back championships. In the last minute of Game 2 of the 1998 Finals, Kerr missed a 3 point shot but grabbed his own rebound and dished to Michael Jordan, who scored a layup that helped the Bulls even the series at 1-1. Chicago would go on to win another championship that year, thanks in part to Kerr's efforts. In 1999, Kerr helped the San Antonio Spurs win the franchise's first-ever title, and in the 2003 playoffs Kerr made four critical three-pointers in the final minutes of Game Six of the Spurs' Western Conference Finals series against the Dallas Mavericks, keying their victory. That same season, Kerr and San Antonio would go on to win the NBA championship over New Jersey.
Los Angeles Lakers Derek Fisher is also known for his clutchness, one of his greatest clutch moments is in game 4 of the 2009 NBA finals where he hit a 3-pointer to tie the game in 4th quarter and a 3-pointer that won the game in overtime
Claude Lemieux seems to be ice hockey's version of Horry and Kerr, winning four Stanley Cups with three different teams in the 1990s and early 2000s (including one Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP). Dwayne Roloson is another example of an average player who steps up his game during the playoffs with his performances in the 2006 Playoffs with the Edmonton Oilers and the 2003 Minnesota Wild. Glenn Anderson could be considered amongst the most clutch players in NHL history with 5 overtime goals and 17 game winning goals in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Golfer Andy North (at best a mediocre PGA Tour player) won only three career tournaments, but two of them were U.S. Opens. In 2003, golfers Ben Curtis and Shaun Micheel made Major Championships the site of their first PGA Tour win.
This text is licensed under the Creative Commons CC-BY-SA License. This text was originally published on Wikipedia and was developed by the Wikipedia community.
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