Bombings shake Damascus, kill 70

Posted on 05/10/2012 by Juan

The continuing turmoil in Syria turned even more deadly on Thursday morning when two enormous bombs were set off at a government intelligence building in Damascus, the capital.

The bombings took place during morning rush hour, guaranteeing that there would be lots of casualties. And there were. Some 70 were reported killed and over 300 wounded, mostly just innocent by-standers. The bomb site, now a large crater surrounded by burned-out hulks of cars, is near the al-Qazzaz intersection.

The Syrian government reports that the explosives were set off by suicide bombers.

The bombings come a day after UN special envoy warned that if Syria’s revolution continues, it could result in a civil war.

As CBS/AP reported, above there is always a lot of speculation about the perpetrators of such bombings, which have also occurred in Aleppo and Idlib.

The opposition Syrian National Council’s allegation that the regime bombed itself is not plausible.

So the perpetrators were almost certainly regime opponents. The similarities between this bombing and the ones we see in Baghdad raises the question of whether these guerrillas are linked or even the same. It has been reported that fighters once based in Iraq have flocked to Syria. It is possible that a forensics team could get at this issue more precisely.

If the bombing issues from some such quarter, is is politically stupid. Some 70 UN inspectors are in Syria trying to get a sense of where they country is going amid all this turbulence, and they flocked to the bomb site.

But it would be wrong to tar the Syrian Natonal Council with this horrible act. Their strategy has mainly been peaceful demonstrations. The SNC is saying absurd things such as that the regime bombed itself in order to avoid having the world community swing around and come to view it as a terrorist organization.

Likewise the bombings will alienate further the nervous, fence-sitting ethnic minorities of Syria, including the 14 percent or so of the population that is Christian and the 10 percent that is Allawite Shiite.

But in leaderless, networked revolutions there are lots of unconnected political actors working simultaneously, and that might well be the case here. If jihadi volunteers came from Iraq or elsewhere, determined to make good use of their munitions training, the SNC could do little about that.

0 Retweet 1 Share 1 StumbleUpon 0 Printer Friendly Send via email

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment

The New Energy Wars (Klare)

Posted on 05/10/2012 by Juan

Michael Klare writes at Tomdispatch.com:

The Energy Wars Heat Up
Six Recent Clashes and Conflicts on a Planet Heading Into Energy Overdrive

By Michael T. Klare

Conflict and intrigue over valuable energy supplies have been features of the international landscape for a long time.  Major wars over oil have been fought every decade or so since World War I, and smaller engagements have erupted every few years; a flare-up or two in 2012, then, would be part of the normal scheme of things.  Instead, what we are now seeing is a whole cluster of oil-related clashes stretching across the globe, involving a dozen or so countries, with more popping up all the time.  Consider these flash-points as signals that we are entering an era of intensified conflict over energy.

From the Atlantic to the Pacific, Argentina to the Philippines, here are the six areas of conflict — all tied to energy supplies — that have made news in just the first few months of 2012:

* A brewing war between Sudan and South Sudan: On April 10th, forces from the newly independent state of South Sudan occupied the oil center of Heglig, a town granted to Sudan as part of a peace settlement that allowed the southerners to secede in 2011.  The northerners, based in Khartoum, then mobilized their own forces and drove the South Sudanese out of Heglig.  Fighting has since erupted all along the contested border between the two countries, accompanied by air strikes on towns in South Sudan.  Although the fighting has not yet reached the level of a full-scale war, international efforts to negotiate a cease-fire and a peaceful resolution to the dispute have yet to meet with success.

This conflict is being fueled by many factors, including economic disparities between the two Sudans and an abiding animosity between the southerners (who are mostly black Africans and Christians or animists) and the northerners (mostly Arabs and Muslims).  But oil — and the revenues produced by oil — remains at the heart of the matter.  When Sudan was divided in 2011, the most prolific oil fields wound up in the south, while the only pipeline capable of transporting the south’s oil to international markets (and thus generating revenue) remained in the hands of the northerners.  They have been demanding exceptionally high “transit fees” — $32-$36 per barrel compared to the common rate of $1 per barrel — for the privilege of bringing the South’s oil to market.  When the southerners refused to accept such rates, the northerners confiscated money they had already collected from the south’s oil exports, its only significant source of funds.  In response, the southerners stopped producing oil altogether and, it appears, launched their military action against the north.  The situation remains explosive.

* Naval clash in the South China Sea: On April 7th, a Philippine naval warship, the 378-foot Gregorio del Pilar, arrived at Scarborough Shoal, a small island in the South China Sea, and detained eight Chinese fishing boats anchored there, accusing them of illegal fishing activities in Filipino sovereign waters.  China promptly sent two naval vessels of its own to the area, claiming that the Gregorio del Pilar was harassing Chinese ships in Chinese, not Filipino waters.  The fishing boats were eventually allowed to depart without further incident and tensions have eased somewhat.  However, neither side has displayed any inclination to surrender its claim to the island, and both sides continue to deploy warships in the contested area.

As in Sudan, multiple factors are driving this clash, but energy is the dominant motive.  The South China Sea is thought to harbor large deposits of oil and natural gas, and all the countries that encircle it, including China and the Philippines, want to exploit these reserves.  Manila claims a 200-nautical mile “exclusive economic zone” stretching into the South China Sea from its western shores, an area it calls the West Philippine Sea; Filipino companies say they have found large natural gas reserves in this area and have announced plans to begin exploiting them.  Claiming the many small islands that dot the South China Sea (including Scarborough Shoal) as its own, Beijing has asserted sovereignty over the entire region, including the waters claimed by Manila; it, too, has announced plans to drill in the area.  Despite years of talks, no solution has yet been found to the dispute and further clashes are likely.

* Egypt cuts off the natural gas flow to Israel: On April 22nd, the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation and Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company informed Israeli energy officials that they were “terminating the gas and purchase agreement” under which Egypt had been supplying gas to Israel.  This followed months of demonstrations in Cairo by the youthful protestors who succeeded in deposing autocrat Hosni Mubarak and are now seeking a more independent Egyptian foreign policy — one less beholden to the United States and Israel.  It also followed scores of attacks on the pipelines carrying the gas across the Negev Desert to Israel, which the Egyptian military has seemed powerless to prevent.

Ostensibly, the decision was taken in response to a dispute over Israeli payments for Egyptian gas, but all parties involved have interpreted it as part of a drive by Egypt’s new government to demonstrate greater distance from the ousted Mubarak regime and his (U.S.-encouraged) policy of cooperation with Israel.  The Egyptian-Israeli gas link was one of the most significant outcomes of the 1979 peace treaty between the two countries, and its annulment clearly signals a period of greater discord; it may also cause energy shortages in Israel, especially during peak summer demand periods.  On a larger scale, the cutoff suggests a new inclination to use energy (or its denial) as a form of political warfare and coercion.

0 Retweet 0 Share 2 StumbleUpon 0 Printer Friendly Send via email

Posted in Energy, Uncategorized | Leave a Comment

Kenyan police accused of brutal attacks on Somalis (Serle)

Posted on 05/10/2012 by Juan

Jack Serle writes at the Bureau of Investigative Jounalism:

For more than two decades Somalia has been pummelled by a bloody conflict. The country has suffered warlords, invading neighbours, Islamic extremists and international misadventures in two decades of civil war.

In the report Criminal Reprisals: Kenyan Police and Military Abuses Against Ethnic Somalis, Human Rights Watch (HRW) documents yet more instances of human rights abuses and brutality stemming from the war. As fighting from this asymmetrical conflict has spilled over into neighbouring countries, civilians have suffered at the hands of the militants and their government.

Although various belligerents have battled for the control of Somalia over the years, the war is currently being fought by al Qaeda-linked group al Shabaab against the weak but internationally supported Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and UN-backed African Union peacekeepers.

Alongside this fight, a covert war is going on.

The Bureau has been tracking the impact of the American military and the CIA in the region. Our work has shown the US has been launching air strikes against al Shabaab since at least 2007. Between 58 and 169 people have been killed in US attacks, up to 58 of them civilians.

The covert war
American special forces have been deployed on the ground to hunt down high-profile al Shabaab and al Qaeda militants. In 2006 Ethiopia invaded Somalia with financial, logistical and military support.

Between 58 and 169 people have been killed, up to 58 of them civilians, in US attacks.

We have recorded strikes taking place close to the Kenyan border and Jeremy Scahill, writing in The Nation reveals Kenya is embroiled in America’s covert war. He reports Kenyan security and intelligence forces ‘have facilitated scores of renditions for the US and other governments.’ In 2007 85 people were rendered to Somalia, Scahill adds, where the CIA has a not-so-secret base next to Mogadishu’s airport.

In October 2011 Kenyan security forces marched into Somalia, apparently without warning their US allies. They went in with the stated aim of eliminating the threat posed by the al Qaeda-linked Islamic militants al Shabaab.

But the advance through al Shabaab territory was accompanied with reports of attacks on civilians, including the October 2011 shelling of a refugee camp near the town of Jilib. Following the incursion, the Islamic militant group looked to punish Kenya. After threats of violence, al Shabaab attacked a Nairobi nightclub and a crowd at a bus stop in the city, killing one and injuring 30.

After these attacks the militants’ focus shifted from the Kenyan capital to North Eastern province of the country. Home to ethnically Somali Kenyans and almost half a million Somali refugees, the province shares a 700 km border with Somalia.

HRW has compiled a list of 24 attacks in North Eastern province. According to the HRW report, Kenyan security forces and the TFG’s soldiers’ response has been inadequate, counterproductive and brutal.

Second-class citizens
Ethnic Somali Kenyans and Somali refugees have been arbitrarily rounded. They have endured extortion and savage beatings. Police and soldiers carry out their actions with impunity – the civilians feel they have no hope of redress.

Kenyan security forces and the TFG’s soldiers’ response has been inadequate, counterproductive and brutal.

Somali refugees have fled their homes because of the protracted civil war. The people have sought refuge in neighbouring countries parched by drought and famine where they have to endure hunger and disease in crowded refugee camps.

Somali Kenyans of North Eastern province have been treated like second-class citizens for more than 50 years. An uprising of Somali Kenyan secessionists was brutally put down by the Kenyan state in the early 1960s. A 28-year state of emergency followed during which ethnic Somali Kenyans were expelled from Kenya for being ‘found to have sympathy with Somalia’ and were required to carry distinctive pink identity cards.

In 1984 an estimated 2,000 Somalis were massacred by Kenyan troops in the Wagalla Massacre. Suspected bandits were rounded up and shot dead on a landing strip in Wajir district.

The egregious human rights abuses have to some extent abated but harassment persists. Farah Maalim, speaker of Kenya’s parliament, told HRW: ‘The police have always treated the population of North Eastern, Somali or Kenyan, as an ATM.’ Half a century of repression undoubtedly leaves its mark on a population, as HRW declares: ‘Each time ethnic Somalis are brutalised in North Eastern province the bitter memories of the 1984 Wagalla massacre resurface.’

Rather than investigate the attacks and pursuing the perpetrators, HRW reports the Kenyan state has instead ‘regularly rounded up local residents and refugees and beaten them.’ There is reportedly little sympathy of al Shabaab in North Eastern province.

Instead of protecting its own citizens, the reason for invading its neighbour, the Kenyan government has meted out random brutality. The actions and impunity of the Kenyan police and army is widening the rift between the people and their government.

You can read the full report here.

____
Mirrored from the Bureau of Investigative Journalism

0 Retweet 0 Share 0 StumbleUpon 0 Printer Friendly Send via email

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

New Israeli government likely won’t launch Iran attack

Posted on 05/09/2012 by Juan

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu moved from the far right to just the Right on Tuesday by bringing into his government the center-right Kadima Party, led by Shaul Mofaz.

Mofaz has been sharply critical of reported plans by Netanyahu and his defense minister Ehud Barak, to launch a go-it-alone military attack on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Mofaz is not opposed to military action against Iran in and of itself, but wants it coordinated with the United States. He last week aligned himself with the views of former Israel domestic intelligence head Yuval Diskin, who strongly opposed a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran and who attacked Netanyahu as erratic. Mofaz said, “Let President Obama handle Iran. We can trust him…”

Having Mofaz in the cabinet makes Netanyahu less dependent on extreme hawks, and makes it highly unlikely that Israel will act on its own against Iran. I say this despite some attempts of right wing Israeli and pro-Israeli outfits like the so-called ‘Washington Institute for Near East Policy’ (which should be ‘Tel Aviv Institute for Near East Policy) to spin the news by saying that the new government is not necessarily less hawkish on Iran. Of course it is! Since the saber rattling by Netanyahu was part of a psychological war with Iran, Jewish nationalist hawks can’t afford to have this simple reality stated.

Mofaz’s joining the government comes at a time of changing leadership in Europe. Francois Hollande, the new French president, is less hawkish on Iran than was Nicolas Sarkozy. And, Vladimir Putin is now president of Russia again, and has been far more outspoken in wanting to prevent a Western attack on Iran than was Dmitri Medvedev, who seemed to vacillate with regard to Tehran.

Netanyahu can now remain prime minister until scheduled elections in October of 2013. He had just the day before called for new elections, in part because his Haredim (Jewish fundamentalist) allies would not accept a new bill providing for Haredim to serve in the Israeli military, nor would they accept Netanyahu’s plans to demolish illegal Israeli settlements on the West Bank.

Netanyahu therefore likely brought Kadima on board so as to be less beholden to Shas and other parties that strongly back the Haredim. Moreover, the extreme right in Netanyahu’s cabinet had blocked any serious negotiations with the Palestinians, putting Netanyahu in difficulties with the US & Europe, whereas Mofaz has a plan for moving forward on the Palestinian front, which he presented to Netanyahu on joining his government. (It is patronizing and unrealistic, but no one else in the government has even talked about the need to formulate a plan).

The coalition was made possible because Shaul Mofaz, who was born in Iran, had recently replaced Tzipi Livni as head of Kadima. Livni had refused to join a Netanyahu-led government. Mofaz is less rigid on the issue. Likewise Kadima was facing the loss of several seats if elections had been held. They would likely have been picked up by the Labor Party, which could have more than doubled its strength. Labor and the liberal Meretz Party were furious about the back room deal, which deprived them of a chance to grow the number of seats they hold.

Aljazeera English reports:

0 Retweet 3 Share 18 StumbleUpon 1 Printer Friendly Send via email

Posted in Iran, Israel/ Palestine | 9 Comments

Power and Money in America (Noam Chomsky)

Posted on 05/09/2012 by Juan

Noam Chomsky writes at Tomdispatch.com

Plutonomy and the Precariat
On the History of the U.S. Economy in Decline
By Noam Chomsky

The Occupy movement has been an extremely exciting development. Unprecedented, in fact. There’s never been anything like it that I can think of. If the bonds and associations it has established can be sustained through a long, dark period ahead — because victory won’t come quickly — it could prove a significant moment in American history.

The fact that the Occupy movement is unprecedented is quite appropriate. After all, it’s an unprecedented era and has been so since the 1970s, which marked a major turning point in American history. For centuries, since the country began, it had been a developing society, and not always in very pretty ways. That’s another story, but the general progress was toward wealth, industrialization, development, and hope. There was a pretty constant expectation that it was going to go on like this. That was true even in very dark times.

I’m just old enough to remember the Great Depression. After the first few years, by the mid-1930s — although the situation was objectively much harsher than it is today — nevertheless, the spirit was quite different. There was a sense that “we’re gonna get out of it,” even among unemployed people, including a lot of my relatives, a sense that “it will get better.”

There was militant labor union organizing going on, especially from the CIO (Congress of Industrial Organizations). It was getting to the point of sit-down strikes, which are frightening to the business world — you could see it in the business press at the time — because a sit-down strike is just a step before taking over the factory and running it yourself. The idea of worker takeovers is something which is, incidentally, very much on the agenda today, and we should keep it in mind. Also New Deal legislation was beginning to come in as a result of popular pressure. Despite the hard times, there was a sense that, somehow, “we’re gonna get out of it.”

It’s quite different now. For many people in the United States, there’s a pervasive sense of hopelessness, sometimes despair. I think it’s quite new in American history. And it has an objective basis.

On the Working Class

In the 1930s, unemployed working people could anticipate that their jobs would come back. If you’re a worker in manufacturing today — the current level of unemployment there is approximately like the Depression — and current tendencies persist, those jobs aren’t going to come back.

The change took place in the 1970s. There are a lot of reasons for it. One of the underlying factors, discussed mainly by economic historian Robert Brenner, was the falling rate of profit in manufacturing. There were other factors. It led to major changes in the economy — a reversal of several hundred years of progress towards industrialization and development that turned into a process of de-industrialization and de-development. Of course, manufacturing production continued overseas very profitably, but it’s no good for the work force.

Along with that came a significant shift of the economy from productive enterprise — producing things people need or could use — to financial manipulation. The financialization of the economy really took off at that time.

On Banks

Before the 1970s, banks were banks. They did what banks were supposed to do in a state capitalist economy: they took unused funds from your bank account, for example, and transferred them to some potentially useful purpose like helping a family buy a home or send a kid to college. That changed dramatically in the 1970s. Until then, there had been no financial crises since the Great Depression. The 1950s and 1960s had been a period of enormous growth, the highest in American history, maybe in economic history.

And it was egalitarian. The lowest quintile did about as well as the highest quintile. Lots of people moved into reasonable lifestyles — what’s called the “middle class” here, the “working class” in other countries — but it was real. And the 1960s accelerated it. The activism of those years, after a pretty dismal decade, really civilized the country in lots of ways that are permanent.

When the 1970s came along, there were sudden and sharp changes: de-industrialization, the off-shoring of production, and the shift to financial institutions, which grew enormously. I should say that, in the 1950s and 1960s, there was also the development of what several decades later became the high-tech economy: computers, the Internet, the IT Revolution developed substantially in the state sector.

The developments that took place during the 1970s set off a vicious cycle. It led to the concentration of wealth increasingly in the hands of the financial sector. This doesn’t benefit the economy — it probably harms it and society — but it did lead to a tremendous concentration of wealth.

On Politics and Money

Concentration of wealth yields concentration of political power. And concentration of political power gives rise to legislation that increases and accelerates the cycle. The legislation, essentially bipartisan, drives new fiscal policies and tax changes, as well as the rules of corporate governance and deregulation. Alongside this began a sharp rise in the costs of elections, which drove the political parties even deeper into the pockets of the corporate sector.

0 Retweet 9 Share 47 StumbleUpon 1 Printer Friendly Send via email

Posted in Uncategorized | 8 Comments

Why India blew Hillary Clinton off about Iran

Posted on 05/08/2012 by Juan

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in India on Monday that New Delhi can reduce its oil imports from Iran further, pressuring that country to fall in line with unilateral US sanctions and Washington’s virtual blockade on the sale of Iranian petroleum. India, however, pushed back, saying it would maintain its trade ties with Iran. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh offered an offset to his disappointing message to Clinton, however, pledging that he would open up ownership of retail businesses to foreign firms (at the moment retailers have to be 51% Indian-owned). US retail corporations are eager to get into the Indian market. I apologize for citing the tabloid Daily Mail here, but actually its story is much better and more thorough than most American outlets, who don’t mention that Singh told the Secretary of State “no” on Iran. The USA Today actually spoke about Iran’s “nuclear arms program” (which Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta says does not exist).

Also yesterday, a major Iranian trade delegation was in India, seeking to boost Iranian imports from India to $6 billion a year. Some Indian firms are afraid, but many see a rare opportunity here to expand their exports to Iran, filling the vacuum created by the increasing US and European Union trade boycott with that country. Those that are oriented in their trade to domestic markets or the rest of Asia might be especially bold in this regard.

Indian state-owned insurers are also stepping up to help insure the Iran-India oil shipping in the face of reluctance on the part of Western insurers.

So as to avoid having to use the international banking system, which the US Departments of State and the Treasury are bullying into declining to handle Iranian oil sales, Iran will accept rupees for much of its oil exports, and then recycle them back into India to purchase imports. The two are talking about trade in “agro and allied products, pharmaceuticals, engineering, shipping, banking, petroleum products polymer, textile, as well as e-commerce.”

Biased Western news outlets keep trumpeting that Iranian exports have fallen, presumably to shore up support for the unlikely idea that the US can unilaterally wish extra millions of oil onto world markets. Few bother to mention that they have fallen in the first two quarters of 2012 primarily because of an Iranian dispute with China over payment terms, delaying Chinese imports. But that dispute has been resolved. China’s oil imports are expected to rise 5% this year, and China will be back to importing a lot of Iranian petroleum soon. The Chinese are also about to deliver a new supertanker to Iran, the first of 12, which will increase Iran’s delivery fleet. And, Iran will accept Renminbi in payment for oil imported by China.

Alok Bansal has an excellent overview of Iran’s importance to India, and explains why Clinton’s pressure on PM Singh will almost certainly largely fail.

1. Iran is India’s gateway to Afghanistan, Central Asia, the Caspian Basin and the Caucausus since it is otherwise geographically blocked from these areas by Pakistan and China, its longstanding rivals. Some of these regions are resource rich, some are potential markets for Indian goods, and some are geostrategically important to India, a rising Asian power.


(modified from this site)

2. India’s Shiite Muslims and even Sunni Muslims reject the US boycott of Iran, and the ruling Congress Party has Muslims as one of its constituencies

3. India is growing rapidly economically and has very little in the way of hydrocarbons itself, and so is very thirsty for Iranian oil and gas.

Note that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are already pumping an extra 2.5 million barrels a day over what they were doing last year, and prices, while softening a bit on US and European slowdowns, are still historically high, suggesting that it will be very difficult for China and India to replace Iranian petroleum. The Sudan crisis has taken some supply off the markets and it could last a while.

0 Retweet 29 Share 52 StumbleUpon 1 Printer Friendly Send via email

Posted in India, Iran, Uncategorized | 17 Comments

How the people’s rights are abridged (James Madison Poster)

Posted on 05/08/2012 by Juan

James Madison

0 Retweet 17 Share 31 StumbleUpon 0 Printer Friendly Send via email

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments

  • Juan Cole

    Juan Cole

    Welcome to Informed Comment, where I do my best to provide an independent and informed perspective on Middle Eastern and American politics.

    Informed Comment is made possible by your support. If you value the information and essays, I make available and write here, please take a moment to contribute what you can.

  • IC Destinations



  • Keep up with Informed Comment at:

  • Donate to Global Americana Institute

    Donate to the Global Americana Institute to support the translation into Arabic of books about America.
  • Friends and Interlocutors:

  • Recent Posts

  • Recent Comments

  • Archives

  • Categories