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Sunday
Mar182012

The Latest from Iran (18 March): Relying on India

0700 GMT: Elections Watch. It may be two weeks since Iran's Parliamentary elections, with the uncertainties over the actual turnout, but Iranian officials are still pushing the event as a historic triumph. Fars features First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi's proclamation, "The Iranian nation created a great epic in a free election shattering the smallest hope of the enemies and ill-wishers of the country. The enemies of the nation feared the message and ideals of the Islamic Republic and its impact on the entire region and the hearts of the nations."

However, even the most forthright of declarations can display cracks in propaganda. Fars asserts, "Initial estimates showed that at least 65% of [Iranians} have been present at the polling stations."

"Estimates"? Surely the website should be putting out "confirmed" turnout 15 days after the vote?

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Sunday
Mar182012

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: After the Damascus Explosions

A demonstration on Saturday night in the Al Marjah district of Aleppo


0628 GMT: Syrian State news agency SANA report that 27 people died and 140 were wounded in Saturday's two suicide bombings. It has now removed the statement that the car bombs were near security and intelligence buildings, saying only " the Customs Square, and the zone linking Baghdad Street to al-Qasaa' Quarter".

However, the Ministry of Interior is clear in its placing of blame: "These two terrorist bombings are part and parcel of targeting the Syrian people in its security and stability and come in light of the recently witnessed escalation by regional and international parties, which was lately manifested in public calls for sending arms to Syria."

Beyond the rhetoric, there is little to establish responsibility, as is the case with earlier attacks in Damascus and in Aleppo last month. Some activists put out the claim that the regime set up the bombings. Al Jazeera English, with no evidence plays up the US spin "that al-Qaeda could be involved, could be taking advantage of the security vacuum in that country".

Saturday
Mar172012

The Latest from Iran (17 March): Ahmadinejad All-is-Well Alert

2004 GMT: Oil Watch. The Indian Governmennt has exempted payment in rupees for oil imports from Iran from 40% withholding tax, easing the way for refiners to use the local currency for purchases.

In Jnauary, India and Iran agreed to settle 45% of oil trade in rupees, but Indian refiners and the National Iranian Oil Company had refused to pay the tax.

1959 GMT: Tough Talk of the Day. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has declared that Israel will not launch a military assault: “They make a lot of fuss about it but don’t dare to attack Iran. They are like dogs that keep barking but are not for attacks.”

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Saturday
Mar172012

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Explosions in Damascus

Images from Syrian State TV of this morning's explosions in Damascus

See also Friday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Anticipating Today's Protests


1800 GMT: As confirmation comes through of the arrest of the former head of intelligence of Libya's Qaddafi regime, there is a scramble over who will try him on criminal charges.

Mauritanian authorities arrested Abdullah al-Senussi, as he arrived on an overnight flight from the Moroccan city of Casablanca (see 1125 GMT).

Al-Senussi has been sought by the International Criminal Court on charges of crimes against humanity. However, Libya's National Transitional Council want to put him on trial, and France is also seeking his extradition, citing his alleged role in the 1989 bombing of an airliner over Niger in which 54 French nationals died.

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Saturday
Mar172012

Iran Feature: A Beginner's Guide to the Squeeze on Tehran's Money (Recknagel)


On March 15, SWIFT agreed with the European Union not to forward messages to any Iranian bank or individual that is blacklisted by the bloc.

That bans some 30 Iranian banks from the global financial network, banks which Tehran currently depends upon to import and export goods and, most importantly, sell its oil internationally.

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Friday
Mar162012

The Latest from Iran (16 March): The Oil Squeeze

See also Iran Video Interview: Leading Official Larijani on the Nuclear "Grand Bargain"

The Latest from Iran (15 March): OK, Folks, Show's Over....


2109 GMT: The Battle Within. According to Serat News, the battle over the next Speaker of Parliament has started --- Hamid Rasaei of the Islamic Constancy Front said an effort will be made to force out Ali Larijani as the head of the Majlis.

2100 GMT: Political Personality Watch. It looks like Ali Motahari, the conservative MP who has led criticism of the President, has gotten a boost in recognition from the campaign --- he is second in voting amongst Khabar Online readers for Personality of the Iranian Year.

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Friday
Mar162012

Syria 1st-Hand: How Abuse Created an Insurgent (Gunn)

Raw footage from the battle for Idlib


Released after six days, Abu Youssef's feet were swollen "like footballs." The shoes he had been wearing when seized from outside his local mosque no longer fit. 

Far from cowing him, the Assad regime had created another enemy. Within a week this soft-spoken, formerly apolitical construction foreman was organising Friday protests in his hometown of Darkush, just a few miles from the Turkish border.

Abu Youssef's activism continues to this day, even as the settlement of 17,000 people is encircled by Syrian tanks, the country's death toll rockets, and peaceful protests seem a relic of more innocent times.

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Friday
Mar162012

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Anticipating Today's Protests

2115 GMT: We close our live coverage with this thought...

One year ago the protests started, and in the last week alone new towns and cities have joined the uprising. Protests today were large, defiant, and were in every area of the country. Even Aleppo and Damascus are now host to regular protests, and the areas around these citties are opposition strongholds. Even forcing government workers to attend pro-government rallies cannot net Assad the large crowds of support that he once enjoyed. More people are joining the protests, and more people who are not in the opposition are refusing to speak up in support of the government.

The violence is not working. The opposition is not going anywhere. The debate about how to end this crisis rages, but the crowds are undeterred. Without intervention, next Friday there will be huge protests in nearly every area of Syria. A month from now, with our without intervention, that will not change. Will it change in 6 months? In 12? In 18? The protests have only a single trend - with every passing month, more people die, and more people join the Syrian uprising.

This is the fact that most analysis overlooks. No matter what the international community does, until Bashar al Assad is out of power there will be protests. And unless foreign nations stop him, Assad will continue to shoot and arrest the protesters. This is the cycle that will not end anytime soon. This is the only certainty of the crisis in Syria.

All other information is less certain - but all other information is arguably less important.

2100 GMT: An activist shares a jubilant video from a protest in rural Aleppo, reportedly earlier today:

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Friday
Mar162012

Iran Video Interview: Leading Official Larijani on the Nuclear "Grand Bargain"

Mohammad Javad Larijani, the head of the human rights section of Iran's judiciary, is interviewed by Christiane Amanpour of CNN.

Don't expect anything on human rights, however. Amanpour's attention, reflecting a media emphasis on "war" v. the possible resumption of discussions with Tehran, is almost exclusively on Iran's nuclear programme.

And on that, Larijani's line --- which would not be put out without the backing of the Supreme Leader --- is that Iran is ready for a "grand bargain", provided its right to uranium enrichment is recognised.

Thursday
Mar152012

Syria Video: Stop One Year of Bloodshed

Today is the one year anniversary of the first protests in Syria, an organized rally in Daraa. Since that day, conservatives estimates of the amount of people killed in the resulting crackdown range from 8,000 to 12,000. EA's estimate is closer to 11,000, but some activists claim to have lists over nearly 20,000 dead. Beyond this, countless are wounded, and perhaps more than 100,000 political prisoners remain in detention, where allegations of torture, or worse, are always whispered.

There have been many video campaigns to commemorate the event. The one below, a collection of videos from the conflict and statements by western celebrities, was sent to EA by super-activist Rami al Jarrah.

Click to read more ...