In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction, a general slowdown in economic activity. During recessions, many macroeconomic indicators vary in a similar way. Production, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), employment, investment spending, capacity utilization, household incomes, business profits, and inflation all fall, while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rise.

Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending, often following an adverse supply shock or the bursting of an economic bubble. Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary macroeconomic policies, such as increasing money supply, increasing government spending and decreasing taxation.

Definition

In a 1975 ''New York Times'' article, economic statistician Julius Shiskin suggested several rules of thumb for defining a recession, one of which was "two down quarters of GDP". In time, the other rules of thumb were forgotten. Some economists prefer a definition of a 1.5% rise in unemployment within 12 months.

In the United States, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." Almost universally, academics, economists, policy makers, and businesses defer to the determination by the NBER for the precise dating of a recession's onset and end.

Attributes

A recession has many attributes that can occur simultaneously and includes declines in component measures of economic activity (GDP) such as consumption, investment, government spending, and net export activity. These summary measures reflect underlying drivers such as employment levels and skills, household savings rates, corporate investment decisions, interest rates, demographics, and government policies.

Economist Richard C. Koo wrote that under ideal conditions, a country's economy should have the household sector as net savers and the corporate sector as net borrowers, with the government budget nearly balanced and net exports near zero. When these relationships become imbalanced, recession can develop within the country or create pressure for recession in another country. Policy responses are often designed to drive the economy back towards this ideal state of balance.

A severe (GDP down by 10%) or prolonged (three or four years) recession is referred to as an economic depression, although some argue that their causes and cures can be different. As an informal shorthand, economists sometimes refer to different recession shapes, such as V-shaped, U-shaped, L-shaped and W-shaped recessions.

Type of recession or shape

The type and shape of recessions are distinctive. In the US, V-shaped, or short-and-sharp contractions followed by rapid and sustained recovery, occurred in 1954 and 1990–91; U-shaped (prolonged slump) in 1974–75, and W-shaped, or double-dip recessions in 1949 and 1980–82. Japan’s 1993–94 recession was U-shaped and its 8-out-of-9 quarters of contraction in 1997–99 can be described as L-shaped. Korea, Hong Kong and South-east Asia experienced U-shaped recessions in 1997–98, although Thailand’s eight consecutive quarters of decline should be termed L-shaped.

Psychological aspects

Recessions have psychological and confidence aspects. For example, if the expectation develops that economic activity will slow, firms may decide to reduce employment levels and save money rather than invest. Such expectations can create a self-reinforcing downward cycle, bringing about or worsening a recession. Consumer confidence is one measure used to evaluate economic sentiment. The term "animal spirits has been used to describe the psychological factors underlying economic activity. Economist Robert J. Shiller wrote that the term "...refers also to the sense of trust we have in each other, our sense of fairness in economic dealings, and our sense of the extent of corruption and bad faith. When animal spirits are on ebb, consumers do not want to spend and businesses do not want to make capital expenditures or hire people."

Balance sheet recession

The bursting of a real estate or financial asset price bubble can cause a recession. For example, economist Richard Koo wrote that Japan's "Great Recession" that began in 1990 was a "balance sheet recession." It was triggered by a collapse in land and stock prices, which caused Japanese firms to have negative equity, meaning their assets were worth less than their liabilities. Despite zero interest rates and expansion of the money supply to encourage borrowing, Japanese corporations in aggregate opted to pay down their debts from their own business earnings rather than borrow to invest as firms typically do. Corporate investment, a key demand component of GDP, fell enormously (22% of GDP) between 1990 and its peak decline in 2003. Japanese firms overall became net savers after 1998, as opposed to borrowers. Koo argues that it was massive fiscal stimulus (borrowing and spending by the government) that offset this decline and enabled Japan to maintain its level of GDP. In his view, this avoided a U.S. type Great Depression, in which U.S. GDP fell by 46%. He argued that monetary policy was ineffective because there was limited demand for funds while firms paid down their liabilities. In a balance sheet recession, GDP declines by the amount of debt repayment and un-borrowed individual savings, leaving government stimulus spending as the primary remedy.

Liquidity trap

A liquidity trap is a Keynesian theory that a situation can develop in which interest rates reach near zero (ZIRP) yet do not effectively stimulate the economy. In theory, near-zero interest rates should encourage firms and consumers to borrow and spend. However, if too many individuals or corporations focus on saving or paying down debt rather than spending, lower interest rates have less effect on investment and consumption behavior; the lower interest rates are like "pushing on a string." Economist Paul Krugman described the U.S. 2009 recession and Japan's lost decade as liquidity traps. One remedy to a liquidity trap is expanding the money supply via quantitative easing or other techniques in which money is effectively printed to purchase assets, thereby creating inflationary expectations that cause savers to begin spending again. Government stimulus spending and mercantilist policies to stimulate exports and reduce imports are other techniques to stimulate demand. He estimated in March 2010 that developed countries representing 70% of the world's GDP were caught in a liquidity trap.

Predictors

Although there are no completely reliable predictors, the following are regarded to be possible predictors.

Inverted yield curve, the model developed by economist Jonathan H. Wright, uses yields on 10-year and three-month Treasury securities as well as the Fed's overnight funds rate. Another model developed by Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists uses only the 10-year/three-month spread. It is, however, not a definite indicator; The three-month change in the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims. Index of Leading (Economic) Indicators (includes some of the above indicators).

Lowering of asset prices, such as homes and financial assets, or high personal and corporate debt levels.

Government responses

Most mainstream economists believe that recessions are caused by inadequate aggregate demand in the economy, and favor the use of expansionary macroeconomic policy during recessions. Strategies favored for moving an economy out of a recession vary depending on which economic school the policymakers follow. Monetarists would favor the use of expansionary monetary policy, while Keynesian economists may advocate increased government spending to spark economic growth. Supply-side economists may suggest tax cuts to promote business capital investment. When interest rates reach the boundary of an interest rate of zero percent conventional monetary policy can no longer be used and government must use other measures to stimulate recovery. Keynesians argue that fiscal policy, tax cuts or increased government spending, will work when monetary policy fails. Spending is more effective because of its larger multiplier but tax cuts take effect faster.

Stock market

Some recessions have been anticipated by stock market declines. In ''Stocks for the Long Run'', Siegel mentions that since 1948, ten recessions were preceded by a stock market decline, by a lead time of 0 to 13 months (average 5.7 months), while ten stock market declines of greater than 10% in the DJIA were not followed by a recession.

The real-estate market also usually weakens before a recession. However real-estate declines can last much longer than recessions.

Since the business cycle is very hard to predict, Siegel argues that it is not possible to take advantage of economic cycles for timing investments. Even the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) takes a few months to determine if a peak or trough has occurred in the US.

During an economic decline, high yield stocks such as fast moving consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and tobacco tend to hold up better. However when the economy starts to recover and the bottom of the market has passed (sometimes identified on charts as a MACD), growth stocks tend to recover faster. There is significant disagreement about how health care and utilities tend to recover. Diversifying one's portfolio into international stocks may provide some safety; however, economies that are closely correlated with that of the U.S. may also be affected by a recession in the U.S.

There is a view termed the ''halfway rule'' according to which investors start discounting an economic recovery about halfway through a recession. In the 16 U.S. recessions since 1919, the average length has been 13 months, although the recent recessions have been shorter. Thus if the 2008 recession followed the average, the downturn in the stock market would have bottomed around November 2008. The actual US stock market bottom of the 2008 recession was in March 2009.

Politics

Generally an administration gets credit or blame for the state of economy during its time. This has caused disagreements about when a recession actually started. In an economic cycle, a downturn can be considered a consequence of an expansion reaching an unsustainable state, and is corrected by a brief decline. Thus it is not easy to isolate the causes of specific phases of the cycle.

The 1981 recession is thought to have been caused by the tight-money policy adopted by Paul Volcker, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, before Ronald Reagan took office. Reagan supported that policy. Economist Walter Heller, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in the 1960s, said that "I call it a Reagan-Volcker-Carter recession. The resulting taming of inflation did, however, set the stage for a robust growth period during Reagan's administration.

Economists usually teach that to some degree recession is unavoidable, and its causes are not well understood. Consequently, modern government administrations attempt to take steps, also not agreed upon, to soften a recession.

Impacts

Unemployment

The full impact of a recession on employment may not be felt for several quarters. Research in Britain shows that low-skilled, low-educated workers and the young are most vulnerable to unemployment in a downturn. After recessions in Britain in the 1980s and 1990s, it took five years for unemployment to fall back to its original levels. Many companies often expect employment discrimination claims to rise during a recession.

Business

Productivity tends to fall in the early stages of a recession, then rises again as weaker firms close. The variation in profitability between firms rises sharply. Recessions have also provided opportunities for anti-competitive mergers, with a negative impact on the wider economy: the suspension of competition policy in the United States in the 1930s may have extended the Great Depression.

Social effects

The living standards of people dependent on wages and salaries are more affected by recessions than those who rely on fixed incomes or welfare benefits. The loss of a job is known to have a negative impact on the stability of families, and individuals' health and well-being.

History

Global

There is no commonly accepted definition of a global recession, although the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regards periods when global growth is less than 3% to be global recessions. The IMF estimates that global recessions seem to occur over a cycle lasting between 8 and 10 years. During what the IMF terms the past three global recessions of the last three decades, global per capita output growth was zero or negative.

Economists at the IMF state that a global recession would take a slowdown in global growth to three percent or less. By this measure, four periods since 1985 qualify: 1990–1993, 1998, 2001–2002 and 2008–2009.

United Kingdom

The most recent recession to affect the United kingdom was the late-2000s recession.

United States

According to economists, since 1854, the U.S. has encountered 32 cycles of expansions and contractions, with an average of 17 months of contraction and 38 months of expansion. However, since 1980 there have been only eight periods of negative economic growth over one fiscal quarter or more, and four periods considered recessions:

July 1981 – November 1982: 14 months

July 1990 – March 1991: 8 months

March 2001 – November 2001: 8 months

December 2007 – June 2009: 18 months

For the past three recessions, the NBER decision has approximately conformed with the definition involving two consecutive quarters of decline. While the 2001 recession did not involve two consecutive quarters of decline, it was preceded by two quarters of alternating decline and weak growth.

Late 2000s

Official economic data shows that a substantial number of nations are in recession as of early 2009. The US entered a recession at the end of 2007, and 2008 saw many other nations follow suit. The US recession of 2007 ended in June, 2009 as the nation entered the current economic recovery.

United States

The United States housing market correction (a possible consequence of United States housing bubble) and subprime mortgage crisis has significantly contributed to a recession.

The 2008/2009 recession saw private consumption fall for the first time in nearly 20 years. This indicates the depth and severity of the current recession. With consumer confidence so low, recovery will take a long time. Consumers in the U.S. have been hard hit by the current recession, with the value of their houses dropping and their pension savings decimated on the stock market. Not only have consumers watched their wealth being eroded – they are now fearing for their jobs as unemployment rises.

U.S. employers shed 63,000 jobs in February 2008, the most in five years. Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on April 6, 2008 that "There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession." On October 1, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that an additional 156,000 jobs had been lost in September. On April 29, 2008, nine US states were declared by Moody's to be in a recession. In November 2008, employers eliminated 533,000 jobs, the largest single month loss in 34 years. For 2008, an estimated 2.6 million U.S. jobs were eliminated.

The unemployment rate in the US grew to 8.5 percent in March 2009, and there were 5.1 million job losses until March 2009 since the recession began in December 2007. That was about five million more people unemployed compared to just a year prior, which was the largest annual jump in the number of unemployed persons since the 1940s.

Although the US Economy grew in the first quarter by 1%, by June 2008 some analysts stated that due to a protracted credit crisis and "rampant inflation in commodities such as oil, food and steel", the country was nonetheless in a recession. The third quarter of 2008 brought on a GDP retraction of 0.5% the biggest decline since 2001. The 6.4% decline in spending during Q3 on non-durable goods, like clothing and food, was the largest since 1950.

A Nov 17, 2008 report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia based on the survey of 51 forecasters, suggested that the recession started in April 2008 and will last 14 months. They project real GDP declining at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter and 1.1% in the first quarter of 2009. These forecasts represent significant downward revisions from the forecasts of three months ago.

A December 1, 2008, report from the National Bureau of Economic Research stated that the U.S. has been in a recession since December 2007 (when economic activity peaked), based on a number of measures including job losses, declines in personal income, and declines in real GDP. By July 2009 a growing number of economists believed that the recession may have ended. The National Bureau of Economic Research announced on September 20, 2010 that the 2008/2009 recession ended in June 2009, making it the longest recession since World War II.

Other countries

Many other countries, particularly in Europe, have undergone decreasing rates of GDP growth. Some countries have been able to avoid a recession but have still experienced slower economic activity, such as China. Australia was able to maintain positive growth throughout the late-2000s recession.

See also

Buffer Theory

Economic depression

Economic stagnation

Stagflation

;Causes

Crisis theory

Currency crisis

Financial crisis

Overproduction

Underconsumption

;Effects

Bankruptcies

Credit crunches

Deflation (or disinflation)

Foreclosures

Unemployment

Specific:

Great Depression – August 1929 to September 1939: the longest (and most severe) recession of the 20^th century

Financial crisis of 2007-2010- current recession

List of recessions in the United States – a list of important recessions in the United States

References

External links

Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions The National Bureau Of Economic Research

Independent Analysis of Business Cycle Conditions - American Institute for Economic Research (AIER)

Category:Recessions Category:Macroeconomics Category:Business cycle Category:Economic problems Category:United States housing bubble

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Coordinates	52°18′44″N104°17′45″N
Name	Young Jeezy
Background	solo_singer
Birth name	Jay Wayne Jenkins
Alias	Lil J
Born	October 12, 1977 Columbia, South Carolina
Death date	|origin Atlanta, Georgia, United States
Genre	Hip hop
Occupation	Rapper, songwriter
Years active	2001–present
Label	Corporate Thugz/Def Jam, Def Jam South
Associated acts	USDA, Freddie Gibbs, Drake, T.I., Kanye West, Rihanna, Jay-Z, Lil Wayne, Ludacris, Bun B, Usher
Website	www.islanddefjam.com/artist/home.aspx?artistID7320

Jay Wayne Jenkins (born October 12, 1977), better known by his stage name Young Jeezy, is an American rapper and member of the hip hop group United Streets Dopeboyz of America (USDA) and a former member of BMF (Black Mafia Family). He began his career in 2001 under an independent label and joined Boyz 'N Da Hood in 2005, the same year his solo major label debut ''Let's Get It: Thug Motivation 101'' was released. Its single "Soul Survivor", which featured Akon, became a top-ten hit in the US.

''The Inspiration'' followed in 2006, and ''The Recession'' followed in 2008; both albums yielded chart-topping singles. Jeezy has also appeared on numerous other rap and R&B; singles such as "Say I" by Christina Millian, "I'm So Paid" by Akon, "Hard" by Rihanna, and "Love In This Club" by Usher, the latter being a number one single on the US Billboard Hot 100 in 2008.

Early life

Jay Wayne Jenkins was born in Columbia, South Carolina and relocated to Atlanta, Georgia when he was a toddler. Because his parents were separated, custody of him transferred between family members frequently. At one point, he lived with his grandmother in Hawkinsville, Georgia. In an interview with ''XXL'' magazine, he described his childhood as "empty". In 1994, he spent nine months in YCA (Youth Challenge Academy), a boot camp in Fort Stewart, Georgia, for narcotics possession.

Music career

Independent debut

Jeezy released his first independent album, ''Thuggin' Under the Influence'' (''T.U.I.''), in 2001 under the name Lil J. It featured artists such as Freddy J.,Kinky B, Fidank, and Lil Jon, who also produced some of the tracks. In 2003, Jeezy released (also independently) ''Come Shop wit Me'', a two CD set featuring completely new tracks with some songs from ''T.U.I.'' Jeezy signed with Bad Boy Records in 2004 and joined the group Boyz n da Hood, whose self-titled album was released in June 2005 and peaked at #5 on the ''Billboard'' 200 albums charts.

''Let's Get It: Thug Motivation 101'' (2005)

In May 2004, Jazze Pha's manager Henry 'Noonie' Lee showed Young Jeezy's demo to his friend Shakir Stewart, Vice President Artist and Repertoire (VP A&R;) at Def Jam. Stewart "fell in love with it [the demo] the first time [he] heard it" and took it to L.A. Reid. Reid recognised the talent and gave Stewart the green light to sign him. As the "hottest thing on the street" at the time, various labels - including Warner and Interscope – were after his signature. However, Jeezy decided he wanted to be in business with Stewart and Reid. As a result, signed with Def Jam Records.

Jeezy's major label debut, ''Let's Get It: Thug Motivation 101'', was released on July 26, 2005. He debuted at #2, selling 172,000 copies in its first week. It spawned several hit singles such as "Soul Survivor" featuring Akon. It reached #4 on the ''Billboard'' Hot 100 and #1 on the Hot Rap Tracks charts. "And Then What" featuring Mannie Fresh, which reached #67 on the Hot 100 and #13 on the Hot Rap Tracks. "My Hood", #19 on the Rap chart. In an interview with HitQuarters, A&R; Shakir Stewart said that Jeezy had recorded over 60 songs for the album.

Jeezy partially wrote and performed on Gucci Mane's song, "Icy". Supposedly, Jeezy was never paid properly for his services. Those in Gucci Mane's camp have suggested that gang members from the Mechanicsville area attacked Gucci Mane to defend Jeezy's honor. Jeezy put out a track called "Stay Strapped" dissing Gucci Mane to the beat of "T.I.'s" song "A.S.A.P." Jeezy responded to Gucci Mane's, while rapping "even his own momma know, Radric Davis a bitch". In a recent Cutmaster C mixtape, ''The Hood News Page 3: Jay-Z Boycotts Cristal'', Gucci disses Jeezy along with Jay Z in his track, "745". Jeezy addresses Gucci back on the same mixtape. While on the track "Break It Down", featuring Cmillz. On "Streets On Lock", from The Inspiration, Jeezy addressed Gucci Mane again, saying "What type of real nigga name himself after a bag?/Nigga you's a hoe, a Louis Vuitton fag". Towards the end of 2009, DJ Drama brought Young Jeezy to the radio station and called Gucci Mane to settle the beef once and for all. The two stopped feuding but throughout early 2010, the crews of Jeezy & Gucci (CTE & Brick Squad) have been in and out altercations with each other despite the fact Jeezy & Gucci have nothing to do with that. In 2011, Jeezy plans to release a new single featuring DJ Spluge and the rest of the Gangster Brigade.

In interviews and on several records, Jeezy has affirmed his resistance to commercialism in his music. Maintaining his street credibility, according to Jeezy, is of the utmost concern to him as an artist. In 2005, Jeezy was featured in several popular hip hop songs including Gucci Mane's "Icy" and Boyz n da Hood's "Dem Boyz". Due to having a successful solo career, he left the group. From time to time he still keeps in contact with a few of the members, but in early 2010 Jeezy & Jody Breeze (who is still a member of Boyz N Da Hood) began to diss each other which started a new beef between the two.

''The Inspiration: Thug Motivation 102'', U.S.D.A. (2006–2007)

In 2006, he was featured in Christina Milian's single "Say I". Jeezy's second major label album was ''The Inspiration'', released in 2006. The album's first single "I Luv It" peaked at #14 on the ''Billboard'' Hot 100. "Bury Me A G" and "Go Getta" featuring R. Kelly, and "Dreamin’" featuring Keyshia Cole followed.

He also portrayed himself in the hip-hop fighting themed game ''Def Jam: Icon''. In 2007, Jeezy released ''Cold Summer'', an album by rap group USDA which consists of Jeezy, Blood Raw, Slick Pulla, 2Eleven and Boo Rossini.

Jeezy presented a week-long toy drive and charity event series with his CTE family with the first annual Toyz n da Hood toy drive. The series presented 1,000 toys for 1,000 kids at various locations in Macon and Atlanta, which began on December 17, 2007, with the CTE Christmas Kickoff from 10 pm to 5 am at Club Miami. The toy giveaway took place in the Unionville neighborhood of Macon and at the Old Fourth Ward Community in Atlanta.

''The Recession'' (2008)

His third album, ''The Recession'', was released in 2008. "Put On" featuring Kanye West was the lead single, which also led to a Grammy Nomination for Best Rap performance by a duo, but it came short. Put On was followed by "Vacation", "Crazy World", "My President" with Nas, and "Who Dat" to complete the Recession's singles. Jeezy appeared on the R&B; singles "Love in this Club" by Usher and "I'm So Paid" by Akon (also with Lil Wayne). "Love in this Club" peaked at #1 on the ''Billboard'' Hot 100. Later, he performed on Ciara's single "Never Ever", from her album ''Fantasy Ride''.

In the summer of 2008, Jeezy was at the center of a controversy over his choice for president. While he had previously endorsed Barack Obama, he spoke about meeting and supporting John McCain during an interview with ''Vibe'' magazine. The statement caused a stir, and Jeezy quickly clarified his choice, via a viral video. In the four-minute explanation, Jeezy made it clear, Obama was his main choice. "I represent the Democratic party. ... I've never been nor do I ever plan to be a John McCain supporter", the rapper said. "I support Barack Obama." Jeezy and Jay-Z performed in a concert to celebrate the inauguration of President Barack Obama on January 18, 2009. On ''The O'Reilly Factor'', commentator Bill O'Reilly criticized their performance as a "rant that offended people", but Jeezy responded: "I got white friends. It's nothing like that. I'm a taxpayer, I got a right to voice my opinion at any point in time. I don't think he really understands my struggle."

''TM103'' (2011-present)

Jeezy is working on ''Thug Motivation 103'', his latest LP, as of November 2009. In March 2010, it was reported that Young Jeezy dropped "Young" from his stage name. Later, Young Jeezy denied the name change and claimed it was just a rumor: however, on the cover for his single "Lose My Mind", his name is printed as "Jeezy". On May 17, 2011, Jeezy released the first single for ''Thug Motivation 103'', "Ballin", which features Lil Wayne.

On March 4, 2010 Jeezy released the track "Illin", featuring the group Clipse; specifically Pusha T. On the track Pusha T raps, "No amount of record sales could derail this ...Stuffing dead prezzies in the wall like that Yale bitch..." The line was controversial and many felt the line was in bad taste and demeaned Yale student Annie Le, who was murdered in 2009, by making light of a crime that had grabbed a lot of media attention due to its extremely upsetting and tragic nature. On July 26, 2011, Young Jeezy announced a September 20, 2011 release date for TM103.

Personal life

He is a personal friend of fellow Atlanta rapper Yung Joc. After Hurricane Katrina, Jeezy opened his house to the victims in an effort to help them have a place to stay. In October 2005, the mother of his 9 year old son used this as the basis to petition for child support. Early in the year, she had claimed that she had little income, no assets and did not even have a house.

On March 11, 2005, Jeezy was arrested after an alleged shooting involving some of his friends in Miami Beach, Florida. He was charged with two counts of carrying a concealed firearm without a permit; however, prosecutors dropped his charges two months later over lack of evidence. In the early hours of September 29, 2007, Jeezy totaled his Lamborghini when it was hit by a taxi crossing Peachtree Street, outside of Justin's, Sean Combs’ restaurant in Atlanta. The ''Atlanta Journal Constitution'' reported his claim that this gave him "a new appreciation for life". In Atlanta on June 18, 2008, police arrested him for DUI.

Discography

;Studio albums

2005: ''Let's Get It: Thug Motivation 101''

2006: ''The Inspiration: Thug Motivation 102''

2008: ''The Recession''

2011: ''Thug Motivation 103: Hustlerz Ambition''

Independent albums

2001: ''Thuggin' Under the Influence (T.U.I.)''

2003: ''Come Shop wit Me''

;Collaboration albums

2005: ''Boyz n da Hood'' (with Boyz n da Hood)

2007: ''Cold Summer'' (with U.S.D.A)

2011: ''The Afterparty'' (with U.S.D.A)

Filmography

2009: ''Janky Promoters''

Awards

BET Awards

*2010, Viewer's Choice Award ("Hard") with Rihanna [Won]

*2009, Best Male Hip-Hop Artist [Nominated]

2008, Best Collaboration ("I'm So Hood [Remix]") with DJ Khaled, Ludacris, Busta Rhymes, Big Boi, Lil Wayne, Fat Joe, Birdman, & Rick Ross [Nominated]

BET Hip-Hop Awards

2008, Best Hip-Hop Video ("I'm So Hood [Remix]") with DJ Khaled, Ludacris, Busta Rhymes, Big Boi, Lil Wayne, Fat Joe, Birdman, & Rick Ross [Nominated]

2008, Best Hip-Hop Collabo ("I'm So Hood [Remix]") with DJ Khaled, Ludacris, Busta Rhymes, Big Boi, Lil Wayne, Fat Joe, Birdman, & Rick Ross [Won]

2008, People's Champ Award ("Put On") with Kanye West [Nominated]

2006, Hip-Hop CD of the Year ("Let's Get It: Thug Motivation 101") [Nominated]

2006, Hip-Hop MVP of the Year [Nominated]

Grammy Awards

2009, Best Rap Performance By a Duo or Group ("Put On") with Kanye West [Nominated]

*2010, Best Rap Performance By a Duo or Group ("Amazing") with Kanye West (Nominated)

*2011, Best Rap Performance by a Duo or Group ("Lose My Mind") with Plies (Nominated)

Ozone Awards

*2008, Best Rap Artist [Nominated]

*2008, Best Rap/R&B; Collaboration ("Love in this Club") with Usher (Won)

*2007, Best Rap Album ''The Inspiration'' (Won)

*2007, Best Rap/R&B; Collaboration ("Go Getta") with R. Kelly [Nominated]

*2007, Best Video ("Grew Up a Screw Up") with Ludacris [Nominated]

*2007, Best Group with Slick Pulla & Blood Raw as USDA [Nominated]

References

External links

Official website

Young Jeezy Interview at prefixmag

Young Jeezy Circulate Music Video

Young Jeezy Talks About Nas

Category:1977 births Category:Living people Category:Def Jam Recordings artists Category:African American rappers Category:Musicians from South Carolina Category:People convicted of drug offenses Category:People from Columbia, South Carolina Category:Rappers from Atlanta, Georgia Category:Southern hip hop musicians Category:Pseudonymous rappers

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Coordinates	52°18′44″N104°17′45″N
name	Peter Schiff
school tradition	Austrian School
color	firebrick
birth date	March 23, 1963
nationality	United States
field	Financial Economics
religion	Jewish
alma mater	U.C. Berkeley (B.B.A.), 1987
influences	Irwin Schiff, Ludwig von Mises, F.A. Hayek, Murray Rothbard
opposed	John Maynard Keynes, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Paul Krugman, Christopher Dodd, Barack Obama,
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Peter David Schiff (; born March 23, 1963) is an American businessman, author and financial commentator. Schiff is CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc., a broker-dealer based in Westport, Connecticut and CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, LLC, a gold and silver dealer based in New York City.

Schiff frequently appears as a guest on CNBC, Fox News, and Bloomberg Television and is often quoted in major financial publications and is a frequent guest on internet radio as well as the host of the former podcast ''Wall Street Unspun'', which is now broadcast on terrestrial radio and known as ''The Peter Schiff Show''. In 2010 Schiff ran as a candidate in the Republican primary for the United States Senate seat from Connecticut.

Schiff is known for his bearish views on the dollar and dollar denominated assets, while bullish on investment in tangible assets as well as foreign stocks and currencies.

Early life and education

The son of Irwin Schiff, a prominent figure in the United States tax protester movement, Peter Schiff was born and raised in New Haven, Connecticut. Schiff graduated from the University of California, Berkeley in 1987 with a Bachelor's degree in finance and accounting.

Financial career

Schiff began his career as a financial consultant at a Shearson Lehman Brothers brokerage. In 1996 Schiff and a partner acquired a small brokerage firm that had been founded in 1980, reincorporated it in California and renamed it Euro Pacific Capital. The company today has more than 15,000 clients and six offices nationwide, with its headquarters in Westport, Connecticut.

According to a 2005 article in ''The Advocate'' of Stamford, Connecticut Schiff relocated the firm to Darien, Connecticut to find brokers "who think like him". The New York Metropolitan Area, Schiff says, has the biggest concentration of brokers in the country, making it easier to recruit employees. The company has offices in Newport Beach, California as well as in Scottsdale, Arizona, Palm Beach, Florida, Los Angeles and New York. Euro Pacific Capital also holds the exclusive rights to broker some Perth Mint gold products in the United States.

Economic forecasting

Peter Schiff specializes in the understanding of the Austrian School, a school of economic thought generally categorized as heterodox (or non-mainstream). Schiff voices strong support for the Austrian School, and says it was first introduced to him by his father, Irwin Schiff..

U.S. bear market

In his 2007 book, ''Crash Proof'', Schiff writes that the current United States economic policies are fundamentally unsound, and predicts that in the future the United States dollar will lose much of its value.

Schiff believes that the imbalance between the amount of goods the U.S. consumes and what it produces will eventually lead to problems for the U.S. economy. As a remedy Schiff favors increased personal savings and production which he says will stimulate economic growth. Schiff cites the U.S.'s low personal savings rate as one of the causes of its transformation from the world's largest creditor nation in the 1970s to the largest debtor nation in the year 2000. Schiff attributes the low savings rate to higher inflation and the artificially low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve.

In a 2002 interview with ''Southland Today'', Schiff predicted that the economic downturn triggered by the bursting of the stock market bubble would lead to a bear market likely to last "another 5 to 10 years." In November 2002, US stocks began a bull market uptrend which held steady for at least five years, until reversing course in 2008, when the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P; 500 began a decline to less than half of their peak 2008 values, followed in 2009 by the Dow climbing 61% from its low point over the following year. After interviewing Schiff in 2009, journalist and finance author Eric Tyson, referenced various Schiff predictions during the 2000s and stated that "On all of these counts, Schiff wasn't just wrong but ended up being hugely wrong." Schiff later released a video stating that, "When I gave that interview in 2002, I had no way of knowing how irresponsible the Fed was going to be ... But I recognized that early: back in 2003 and 2004 I changed my forecast ... if you look at what happened to the Dow in terms of gold [and not U.S. dollars], my forecast was extremely accurate."

In an August 2006 interview he said: "The United States economy is like the Titanic and I am here with the lifeboat trying to get people to leave the ship... I see a real financial crisis coming for the United States." On December 31, 2006 in debate on Fox News, Schiff forecast that "what's going to happen in 2007" is that "real estate prices are going to come crashing back down to Earth".

As part of these exchanges on Fox News and his repeated appearances on financial news network CNBC, Schiff had mentioned factors such as speculators and "the absence of lending standards" which are now seen by many to indeed be contributing factors to the housing crisis which began in 2007. On December 13, 2007 in a Bloomberg interview on the show ''Open Exchange'', Schiff further added that he felt that the crisis would extend to the credit card lending industry. Following this observation, it was soon reported on December 23, 2007 by the Associated Press that "The value of credit card accounts at least 30 days late jumped 26 percent to $17.3 billion in October from a year earlier at 17 large credit card trusts examined by the AP... At the same time, defaults -- when lenders essentially give up hope of ever being repaid and write off the debt -- rose 18 percent to almost $961 million in October, according to filings made by the trusts with the Securities and Exchange Commission."

Since 2007, Schiff has stated many times that if the government doesn't change course there will be hyperinflation in the US. Schiff is one of a minority of economists credited with accurately predicting the financial crisis of 2007–2010 while "nearly all [macroeconomists] failed to foresee the recession despite plenty of warning signs". In his book ''Crash Proof'', he described several aspects of the U.S. economy that would lead to a recession.

Online videos

Schiff's notoriety for financial predictions increased when a You Tube video entitled "Peter Schiff was right" became popular in late 2008 and 2009. The video consists of a compilation of clips of his many appearances on various financial news programs from networks including CNBC, Fox News, MSNBC and Bloomberg, most of which took place from 2005 to 2007. In the segments Schiff explains specifically the fundamental problems he saw with the United States economy at that time. Schiff's warnings of a coming economic collapse earned him the moniker "Dr. Doom."

In late 2006, Schiff predicted the housing bubble and resulting subprime mortgage crisis, and in late 2008, he predicted the automotive industry crisis and the crisis in the banking and financial markets.

Investment advice

Despite predictions regarding the housing bubble and automotive industry difficulties coming to fruition, as early as 2009 Schiff was receiving criticism due to the performance of some of his client's accounts in 2008, as well as controversies over the predictions themselves. In January 2009, economic blogger and investment adviser Michael Shedlock reported, "I have talked with many who claim they have invested with Schiff and are down anywhere from 40% to 70% in 2008." Other criticisms followed, including the aforementioned Eric Tyson post as well as an article for the investment news site Seeking Alpha, published on the site two days after Shedlock's blog post. Later that week an article appeared in the ''Wall Street Journal'' reporting that Schiff's broker-dealer firm, Euro Pacific Capital Inc., "advised its clients to bet that the dollar would weaken significantly and that foreign stocks would outpace their U.S. peers" and that instead, the dollar advanced against most currencies, "magnifying the losses from foreign stocks Mr. Schiff steered his investors into."

The Director of Communications at Schiff's investment firm responded to the original Shedlock piece by saying, "While it is true, that our accounts have suffered badly in 2008, a fact that we have never disputed or ran from, [Shedlock's] estimates for the size of our typical client losses are exaggerated and unfair." Schiff personally responded to Shedlock's criticism by saying, "to examine the effectiveness of my investment strategy immediately following a major correction by looking only at those accounts who adopted the strategy at the previous peak is unfair and distortive" and called Shedlock's blog entry "nothing more than an overt advertisement (and a highly deceptive one at that) to use my popularity to advance his career," adding that losses were felt mostly by recent clients and not by others.

Schiff responded similarly to criticisms made by Wade Slome of Sidoxia Capital Management, LLC. in a September 2009 blog entry entitled, "The Emperor Schiff Has No Clothes." Schiff stated not only were the losses suffered by his clients in 2008 highly exaggerated, but also that most of those losses have already been recouped, stating that many who where down then are now up, and most long-term clients were never down at all, but merely temporarily lost some of the profits they had earned over the years.

The January 2009 ''Wall Street Journal'' article discussed the value of Schiff's predictions, and stated how deficiencies "made mincemeat of investors who took his advice in 2008." In an interview the following week Schiff likened himself to billionaire investor Warren Buffett saying they were both "buy and hold" long-term investors. Contrasting his negative press he compared claims about accounts managed under Schiff's firm to the stock market value of Warren Buffett's company, saying: "His approach is you buy stocks and you never sell them—you hope to never sell them—and Berkshire Hathaway is down 40% in the last thirteen months; I don't see the Wall Street Journal saying 'Warren Buffett made mincemeat out of his clients.'" The ''Wall Street Journal'' also published a letter written by Schiff in response to his critics saying: "My central investing premise, a weakening dollar and safety in gold, commodities and foreign stocks, didn't materialize in 2008. But all the ingredients were (and remain) present for those movements to occur. Over the past year, market reactions that I didn't foresee—massive global deleveraging, a knee-jerk 'flight to quality' into U.S. Treasuries and a sharp counter trend rally in the U.S. dollar—have kept the scenario from playing out."

In a November 2009 videoblog, Schiff said that five stocks he picked for ''Fortune Magazine'' in January 2009 had gained a total of 360%.

In a March 2009 speech Schiff said that it would be impossible for the U.S. debt to China to be repaid unless the U.S. dollar's value is substantially diluted through inflation.

In September 2009 Schiff said that "I would not be surprised to see [gold] at $5,000 over the next several years" and that the 2009 stock market rally was a "bear market rally".

Political career

Schiff was an economic adviser to Ron Paul's 2008 presidential campaign. In support of Paul's economic revitalization plan, he said: "We need a plan that stimulates savings and production, not more of the reckless borrowing and consumption that got us into this mess in the first place. Ron Paul's plan is the only one that amounts to a step in the right direction. If you want meaningful change—for the better that is—Ron Paul is the only candidate capable of delivering it."

In 2008, Schiff also endorsed Murray Sabrin for the U.S. Senate seat in New Jersey.

In an interview in February 2009, Schiff's position was summarized as a nonpartisan critique of American policymakers, comparing former presidents George W. Bush to Herbert Hoover and President Barack Obama to former president Franklin D. Roosevelt, with neither of the more recent incumbents comparing favorably to the earlier ones.

Schiff supports the reduction of government economic regulation, and is concerned that President Obama's administration may increase such regulation.

Schiff says that the current economic crisis provides an opportunity to transition from borrowing and spending, to saving and producing. Schiff is critical of the U.S. government's efforts to "ease the pain" with economic stimulus packages and bailouts. According to Schiff, the U.S. government's approach of replacing "legitimate savings with a printing press" could result in hyperinflation.

2010 U.S. Senate campaign

In December 2008, Connecticut citizens created a website encouraging Schiff to campaign against the incumbent Senator Christopher Dodd. Approximately 5,000 people made campaign contributions using the web site. On February 21, 2009, a moneybomb raised over $20,000 for Schiff's campaign. In a May 2009 video blog, Schiff said that he was seriously considering a run for the senate and when questioned by a ''Washington Post'' reporter, he said the chance of him entering politics was "better than 50-50". In June 2009 Schiff commissioned a poll of likely voters which indicated that he trailed Dodd in popularity by four percentage points. On July 9, 2009, Schiff launched an exploratory committee and an official campaign website. He began accepting donations in an attempt to see if "people who really believe in freedom, liberty, sound money and the constitution are prepared to support that with an actual political contribution or to volunteer their services and work on this campaign." He received over 10,000 donations and many e-mails from around the world.

After giving some hints on ''The Daily Show'' Schiff officially announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination on September 17, 2009, during the MSNBC ''Morning Joe'' show. By October 2009 Schiff had received more than 10,000 telephone calls and letters and raised over $1,960,000 (USD) in campaign contributions.

At the May 2010 Republican convention, Linda McMahon received the most delegate votes but not enough to prevent an August primary election. U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons received more than the required 15 percent of the total votes necessary to force the primary. Schiff then collected the signatures necessary to earn a position on the August 2010 GOP primary ballot, submitting at least 400 signatures over the state requirement.

In July 2010, Schiff's campaign received endorsements from Steve Forbes and Ron Paul.

In the Republican primary, held on August 10, 2010, Schiff lost the nomination to Linda McMahon.

The results were:

49% Linda McMahon

28% Rob Simmons

23% Peter Schiff

Ultimately, the election was won by the Democratic Party primary winner, Richard Blumenthal.

Recognition

In 2011 Peter Schiff was listed as one of the Who's Who of Wall Street

Books

Peter Schiff is the author of five books published by John Wiley & Sons. His book, ''Crash Proof 2.0'', appeared on both the ''New York Times'' and ''Wall Street Journal'' bestseller lists.

''Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse'', February 2007, ISBN 978-0-470-04360-8 1

''The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down'', 2008, ISBN 978-0-470-38378-0 2

''Crash Proof 2.0: How to Profit From the Economic Collapse, 2nd Edition'', September 2009, ISBN 978-0-470-47453-2 3

''The Little Book of Bull Moves, Updated and Expanded: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market Is Up, Down, Or Sideways'', 2010, ISBN 0470643994 4

''How an Economy Grows and Why it Crashes'', 2010, ISBN 978-0-470-52670-5 5

Notes

References

External links

Euro Pacific Capital US Brokerage Firm Website

Euro Pacific Precious Metals Coin Company Website

Schiff for Senate Official Campaign Website

Peter Schiff Online, Official book site for Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff radio, Schiff's daily radio show

Peter Schiff blog

The Peter Schiff Blog

Social media

Peter Schiff's Official YouTube channel

Category:American economics writers Category:American economists Category:American finance and investment writers Category:American Jews Category:American libertarians Category:American money managers Category:Austrian School economists Category:Classical liberals Category:Connecticut Republicans Category:Financial analysts Category:Libertarian economists Category:Microeconomists Category:People from New Haven, Connecticut Category:People from New York City Category:Stock and commodity market managers Category:University of California, Berkeley alumni Category:Writers from Connecticut Category:1964 births Category:Living people

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