A government budget deficit is the amount by which some measure of government revenues falls short of some measure of government spending.
If a government is running a positive budget deficit, it is also said to be running a negative budget surplus (and conversely, a positive budget surplus is a negative budget deficit).
The meaning of 'deficit' differs from that of 'debt', which is an accumulation of yearly deficits. Deficits occur when a government's expenditures exceed the revenue that it generates. The deficit can be measured with or without including the interest payments on the debt as expenditures. The primary deficit is defined as the difference between current government spending on goods and services and total current revenue from all types of taxes net of transfer payments. The total deficit (which is often called the fiscal deficit or just the 'deficit') is the primary deficit plus interest payments on the debt.
Therefore, if is a timeframe, is government spending and is tax revenue for the respective timeframe, then the primary deficit is :If is last year's debt, and is the interest rate, then the total deficit is :
Finally, this year's debt can be calculated from last year's debt and this year's total deficit, as follows: :
Economic trends can influence the growth or shrinkage of fiscal deficits in several ways. Increased levels of economic activity generally lead to higher tax revenues, while government expenditures often increase during economic downturns because of higher outlays for social insurance programs such as unemployment benefits. Changes in tax rates, tax enforcement policies, levels of social benefits, and other government policy decisions can also have major effects on public debt. For some countries, such as Norway, Russia, and members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), oil and gas receipts play a major role in public finances.
Inflation reduces the real value of accumulated debt. If investors anticipate future inflation, however, they will demand higher interest rates on government debt, making public borrowing more expensive.
A government deficit can be thought of as consisting of two elements, ''structural'' and ''cyclical''.
At the lowest point in the business cycle, there is a high level of unemployment. This means that tax revenues are low and expenditure (e.g. on social security) high. Conversely, at the peak of the cycle, unemployment is low, increasing tax revenue and decreasing social security spending. The additional borrowing required at the low point of the cycle is the cyclical deficit. By definition, the cyclical deficit will be entirely repaid by a cyclical surplus at the peak of the cycle.
The structural deficit is the deficit that remains across the business cycle, because the general level of government spending exceeds prevailing tax levels. The observed total budget deficit is equal to the sum of the structural deficit with the cyclical deficit or surplus.
Some economists have criticized the distinction between cyclical and structural deficits, contending that the business cycle is too difficult to measure to make cyclical analysis worthwhile.
The fiscal gap, a measure proposed by economists Alan Auerbach and Laurence Kotlikoff, measures the difference between government spending and revenues over the very long term, typically as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product. The fiscal gap can be interpreted as the percentage increase in revenues or reduction of expenditures necessary to balance spending and revenues in the long run. For example, a fiscal gap of 5% could be eliminated by an immediate and permanent 5% increase in taxes or cut in spending or some combination of both. It includes not only the structural deficit at a given point in time, but also the difference between promised future government commitments, such as health and retirement spending, and planned future tax revenues. Since the elderly population is growing much faster than the young population in many countries, many economists argue that these countries have important fiscal gaps, beyond what can be seen from their deficits alone.
+National Government Budgets for 2004 (in billions of US$) | Nation !! GDP !! Revenue !! Expenditure !! Exp/GDP !! Budget Surplus (or Deficit) !! Deficit/GDP | ||||||
11700 | 1862| | 2338 | 19.98% | -25.56% | -4.07% | ||
align="left" | US (state) | -| | 900 | 850 | 7.6% | +5% | +0.4% |
align="left" | Japan | 4600| | 1400 | 1748 | 38.00% | -24.86% | -7.57% |
align="left" | Germany | 2700| | 1200 | 1300 | 48.15% | -8.33% | -3.70% |
align="left" | United Kingdom | 2100| | 835 | 897 | 42.71% | -7.43% | -2.95% |
align="left" | France | 2000| | 1005 | 1080 | 54.00% | -7.46% | -3.75% |
align="left" | Italy | 1600| | 768 | 820 | 51.25% | -6.77% | -3.25% |
align="left" | China | 1600| | 318 | 349 | 21.81% | -9.75% | -1.94% |
align="left" | Spain | 1000| | 384 | 386 | 38.60% | -0.52% | -0.20% |
align="left" | Canada (federal) | 900| | 150 | 144 | 16.00% | +4.00% | +0.67% |
align="left" | South Korea | 600| | 150 | 155 | 25.83% | -3.33% | -0.83% |
These loans became popular when private financiers had amassed enough capital to provide them, and when governments were no longer able to simply print money, with consequent inflation, to finance their spending.
However, large long-term loans had a high element of risk for the lender and consequently gave high interest rates. Governments later began to issue bonds that were payable to the bearer, rather than the original purchaser. This meant that someone who lent the state money could sell on the debt to someone else, reducing the risks involved and reducing the overall interest rates. Examples of this are British Consols and American Treasury bill bonds.
;US-specific
Category:Public finance Category:Economic policy Category:Fiscal policy
ba:Дефицит bg:Бюджетен дефицит ca:Dèficit fiscal de:Haushaltssaldo es:Déficit presupuestario eo:Deficito eu:Defizit fa:کسری بودجه fr:Déficit io:Deficito id:Defisit it:Deficit he:גירעון תקציבי lt:Deficitas ms:Defisit nl:Begrotingstekort ja:黒字 pl:Deficyt budżetowy pt:Défice ro:Deficit bugetar ru:Бюджетный дефицит sr:Дефицит sv:Budgetunderskott tr:Bütçe açığı uk:Бюджетний дефіцит vi:Thâm hụt ngân sách zh:赤字This text is licensed under the Creative Commons CC-BY-SA License. This text was originally published on Wikipedia and was developed by the Wikipedia community.
In economics, a deficit is a shortfall in revenue; in more specific cases it may refer to:
Deficit may also refer to:
cs:Deficit de:Defizit eu:Defizit fr:Déficit ru:Дефицит
This text is licensed under the Creative Commons CC-BY-SA License. This text was originally published on Wikipedia and was developed by the Wikipedia community.
The two basic elements of any budget are the revenues and expenses. In the case of the government, revenues are derived primarily from taxes. Government expenses include spending on current goods and services, which economists call government consumption; government investment expenditures such as infrastructure investment or research expenditure; and transfer payments like unemployment or retirement benefits.
Budgets have an economic, political and technical basis. Unlike a pure economic budget, they are not entirely designed to allocate scarce resources for the best economic use. They also have a political basis wherein different interests push and pull in an attempt to obtain benefits and avoid burdens. The technical element is the forecast of the likely levels of revenues and expenses.
National Budget - this is when a country finds out what the government's expected income and expenditure will be for that year.
Category:Public finance Category:Fiscal policy
ar:ميزانية الدولة az:Dövlət büdcəsi bg:Държавен бюджет cs:Státní rozpočet de:Haushaltsplan et:Riigieelarve el:Κρατικός Προϋπολογισμός es:Presupuesto público fr:Budget de l'État hr:Državni proračun it:Bilancio dello Stato he:תקציב המדינה kk:Мемлекеттік бюджет lt:Lietuvos valstybės biudžetas hu:Államháztartás mn:Улсын төсөв ja:官庁会計 no:Statsbudsjett pl:Budżet państwa pt:Orçamento de Estado ru:Государственный бюджет sk:Štátny rozpočet sh:Državni budžet sv:Sveriges statsbudget tr:Devlet bütçesi uk:Державний бюджет vi:Ngân sách nhà nước zh:政府预算
This text is licensed under the Creative Commons CC-BY-SA License. This text was originally published on Wikipedia and was developed by the Wikipedia community.
name | Peter Schiff |
---|---|
school tradition | Austrian School |
color | firebrick |
birth date | March 23, 1963 |
nationality | United States |
field | Financial Economics |
religion | Jewish |
alma mater | U.C. Berkeley (B.B.A.), 1987 |
influences | Irwin Schiff, Ludwig von Mises, F.A. Hayek, Murray Rothbard |
opposed | John Maynard Keynes, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Paul Krugman, Christopher Dodd, Barack Obama, |
signature | }} |
Peter David Schiff (; born March 23, 1963) is an American businessman, author and financial commentator. Schiff is CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc., a broker-dealer based in Westport, Connecticut and CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, LLC, a gold and silver dealer based in New York City.
Schiff frequently appears as a guest on CNBC, Fox News, and Bloomberg Television and is often quoted in major financial publications and is a frequent guest on internet radio as well as the host of the former podcast ''Wall Street Unspun'', which is now broadcast on terrestrial radio and known as ''The Peter Schiff Show''. In 2010 Schiff ran as a candidate in the Republican primary for the United States Senate seat from Connecticut.
Schiff is known for his bearish views on the dollar and dollar denominated assets, while bullish on investment in tangible assets as well as foreign stocks and currencies.
According to a 2005 article in ''The Advocate'' of Stamford, Connecticut Schiff relocated the firm to Darien, Connecticut to find brokers "who think like him". The New York Metropolitan Area, Schiff says, has the biggest concentration of brokers in the country, making it easier to recruit employees. The company has offices in Newport Beach, California as well as in Scottsdale, Arizona, Palm Beach, Florida, Los Angeles and New York. Euro Pacific Capital also holds the exclusive rights to broker some Perth Mint gold products in the United States.
Schiff believes that the imbalance between the amount of goods the U.S. consumes and what it produces will eventually lead to problems for the U.S. economy. As a remedy Schiff favors increased personal savings and production which he says will stimulate economic growth. Schiff cites the U.S.'s low personal savings rate as one of the causes of its transformation from the world's largest creditor nation in the 1970s to the largest debtor nation in the year 2000. Schiff attributes the low savings rate to higher inflation and the artificially low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve.
In a 2002 interview with ''Southland Today'', Schiff predicted that the economic downturn triggered by the bursting of the stock market bubble would lead to a bear market likely to last "another 5 to 10 years." In November 2002, US stocks began a bull market uptrend which held steady for at least five years, until reversing course in 2008, when the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P; 500 began a decline to less than half of their peak 2008 values, followed in 2009 by the Dow climbing 61% from its low point over the following year. After interviewing Schiff in 2009, journalist and finance author Eric Tyson, referenced various Schiff predictions during the 2000s and stated that "On all of these counts, Schiff wasn't just wrong but ended up being hugely wrong." Schiff later released a video stating that, "When I gave that interview in 2002, I had no way of knowing how irresponsible the Fed was going to be ... But I recognized that early: back in 2003 and 2004 I changed my forecast ... if you look at what happened to the Dow in terms of gold [and not U.S. dollars], my forecast was extremely accurate."
In an August 2006 interview he said: "The United States economy is like the Titanic and I am here with the lifeboat trying to get people to leave the ship... I see a real financial crisis coming for the United States." On December 31, 2006 in debate on Fox News, Schiff forecast that "what's going to happen in 2007" is that "real estate prices are going to come crashing back down to Earth".
As part of these exchanges on Fox News and his repeated appearances on financial news network CNBC, Schiff had mentioned factors such as speculators and "the absence of lending standards" which are now seen by many to indeed be contributing factors to the housing crisis which began in 2007. On December 13, 2007 in a Bloomberg interview on the show ''Open Exchange'', Schiff further added that he felt that the crisis would extend to the credit card lending industry. Following this observation, it was soon reported on December 23, 2007 by the Associated Press that "The value of credit card accounts at least 30 days late jumped 26 percent to $17.3 billion in October from a year earlier at 17 large credit card trusts examined by the AP... At the same time, defaults -- when lenders essentially give up hope of ever being repaid and write off the debt -- rose 18 percent to almost $961 million in October, according to filings made by the trusts with the Securities and Exchange Commission."
Since 2007, Schiff has stated many times that if the government doesn't change course there will be hyperinflation in the US. Schiff is one of a minority of economists credited with accurately predicting the financial crisis of 2007–2010 while "nearly all [macroeconomists] failed to foresee the recession despite plenty of warning signs". In his book ''Crash Proof'', he described several aspects of the U.S. economy that would lead to a recession.
In late 2006, Schiff predicted the housing bubble and resulting subprime mortgage crisis, and in late 2008, he predicted the automotive industry crisis and the crisis in the banking and financial markets.
The Director of Communications at Schiff's investment firm responded to the original Shedlock piece by saying, "While it is true, that our accounts have suffered badly in 2008, a fact that we have never disputed or ran from, [Shedlock's] estimates for the size of our typical client losses are exaggerated and unfair." Schiff personally responded to Shedlock's criticism by saying, "to examine the effectiveness of my investment strategy immediately following a major correction by looking only at those accounts who adopted the strategy at the previous peak is unfair and distortive" and called Shedlock's blog entry "nothing more than an overt advertisement (and a highly deceptive one at that) to use my popularity to advance his career," adding that losses were felt mostly by recent clients and not by others.
Schiff responded similarly to criticisms made by Wade Slome of Sidoxia Capital Management, LLC. in a September 2009 blog entry entitled, "The Emperor Schiff Has No Clothes." Schiff stated not only were the losses suffered by his clients in 2008 highly exaggerated, but also that most of those losses have already been recouped, stating that many who where down then are now up, and most long-term clients were never down at all, but merely temporarily lost some of the profits they had earned over the years.
The January 2009 ''Wall Street Journal'' article discussed the value of Schiff's predictions, and stated how deficiencies "made mincemeat of investors who took his advice in 2008." In an interview the following week Schiff likened himself to billionaire investor Warren Buffett saying they were both "buy and hold" long-term investors. Contrasting his negative press he compared claims about accounts managed under Schiff's firm to the stock market value of Warren Buffett's company, saying: "His approach is you buy stocks and you never sell them—you hope to never sell them—and Berkshire Hathaway is down 40% in the last thirteen months; I don't see the Wall Street Journal saying 'Warren Buffett made mincemeat out of his clients.'" The ''Wall Street Journal'' also published a letter written by Schiff in response to his critics saying: "My central investing premise, a weakening dollar and safety in gold, commodities and foreign stocks, didn't materialize in 2008. But all the ingredients were (and remain) present for those movements to occur. Over the past year, market reactions that I didn't foresee—massive global deleveraging, a knee-jerk 'flight to quality' into U.S. Treasuries and a sharp counter trend rally in the U.S. dollar—have kept the scenario from playing out."
In a November 2009 videoblog, Schiff said that five stocks he picked for ''Fortune Magazine'' in January 2009 had gained a total of 360%.
In a March 2009 speech Schiff said that it would be impossible for the U.S. debt to China to be repaid unless the U.S. dollar's value is substantially diluted through inflation.
In September 2009 Schiff said that "I would not be surprised to see [gold] at $5,000 over the next several years" and that the 2009 stock market rally was a "bear market rally".
In 2008, Schiff also endorsed Murray Sabrin for the U.S. Senate seat in New Jersey.
In an interview in February 2009, Schiff's position was summarized as a nonpartisan critique of American policymakers, comparing former presidents George W. Bush to Herbert Hoover and President Barack Obama to former president Franklin D. Roosevelt, with neither of the more recent incumbents comparing favorably to the earlier ones.
Schiff supports the reduction of government economic regulation, and is concerned that President Obama's administration may increase such regulation.
Schiff says that the current economic crisis provides an opportunity to transition from borrowing and spending, to saving and producing. Schiff is critical of the U.S. government's efforts to "ease the pain" with economic stimulus packages and bailouts. According to Schiff, the U.S. government's approach of replacing "legitimate savings with a printing press" could result in hyperinflation.
In December 2008, Connecticut citizens created a website encouraging Schiff to campaign against the incumbent Senator Christopher Dodd. Approximately 5,000 people made campaign contributions using the web site. On February 21, 2009, a moneybomb raised over $20,000 for Schiff's campaign. In a May 2009 video blog, Schiff said that he was seriously considering a run for the senate and when questioned by a ''Washington Post'' reporter, he said the chance of him entering politics was "better than 50-50". In June 2009 Schiff commissioned a poll of likely voters which indicated that he trailed Dodd in popularity by four percentage points. On July 9, 2009, Schiff launched an exploratory committee and an official campaign website. He began accepting donations in an attempt to see if "people who really believe in freedom, liberty, sound money and the constitution are prepared to support that with an actual political contribution or to volunteer their services and work on this campaign." He received over 10,000 donations and many e-mails from around the world.
After giving some hints on ''The Daily Show'' Schiff officially announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination on September 17, 2009, during the MSNBC ''Morning Joe'' show. By October 2009 Schiff had received more than 10,000 telephone calls and letters and raised over $1,960,000 (USD) in campaign contributions.
At the May 2010 Republican convention, Linda McMahon received the most delegate votes but not enough to prevent an August primary election. U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons received more than the required 15 percent of the total votes necessary to force the primary. Schiff then collected the signatures necessary to earn a position on the August 2010 GOP primary ballot, submitting at least 400 signatures over the state requirement.
In July 2010, Schiff's campaign received endorsements from Steve Forbes and Ron Paul.
In the Republican primary, held on August 10, 2010, Schiff lost the nomination to Linda McMahon.
The results were:
Ultimately, the election was won by the Democratic Party primary winner, Richard Blumenthal.
Category:American economics writers Category:American economists Category:American finance and investment writers Category:American Jews Category:American libertarians Category:American money managers Category:Austrian School economists Category:Classical liberals Category:Connecticut Republicans Category:Financial analysts Category:Libertarian economists Category:Microeconomists Category:People from New Haven, Connecticut Category:People from New York City Category:Stock and commodity market managers Category:University of California, Berkeley alumni Category:Writers from Connecticut Category:1964 births Category:Living people
cs:Peter Schiff da:Peter Schiff de:Peter Schiff (Ökonom) es:Peter Schiff fr:Peter Schiff nl:Peter D. Schiff (econoom) ja:ピーター・シフ pl:Peter Schiff pt:Peter Schiff fi:Peter Schiff uk:Пітер ШиффThis text is licensed under the Creative Commons CC-BY-SA License. This text was originally published on Wikipedia and was developed by the Wikipedia community.
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