With Syria on the verge of collapse, what comes next?
by Tim Fenton

There may have been despair at the United Nations after Russia and China vetoed the latest attempt to get some kind of order into the situation in Syria, but it is looking more likely over time that Bashar Assad and his pals will soon be out of power.

This is because the Syrian army may not be able to carry on much longer. This estimation has not been made by a pundit or hack, but by General Mustafa al-Sheikh, who has left the country and has taken refuge in neighbouring Turkey.

The General has asserted that no more than a third of the army is now at combat readiness, with defection and absenteeism rife. That limits the amount of time for which it can maintain its effectiveness.
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3 Comments   ¦   Published at 8:20 am, 6th February

by Chris Dillow

If you ignore the mindless tittle-tattle, David Miliband’s New Statesman article raises a genuine issue: what should be the left’s attitude to the state?

Although this is seen as “Blairite” it is also consistent with a more radical leftist tradition of scepticism about big government is a longstanding tradition on the left such as guild socialism, anarchism, market socialism or Marxism.

by Guest

We’ve seen a steady stream of groups representing health professional formally oppose the Bill, with the Royal College of GPs among the most recent and significant. Many Coalition MPs and Ministers will be wondering how they can save face and pull back at this late stage.

There is one way: publish the Department of Health’s Risk Register.

by Éoin Clarke

The Daily Epxress on Wednesday gave a platform to Anne Widdecombe to peddle her ‘cure gay people’ mantra. You can read it here.

Not only is this a breach of the ethical standards of journalism, it is an incitement to anti-gay verbal and physical attacks.

by Leo Barasi

In the party horserace, 2011 was the year of not much happening. In fact, it was a year of exceptional boringness on that front, punctuated only by a small and quite possibly transient boost for the Tories after the EU veto in December.

But behind that headline of ‘no change’, there were interesting shifts on other fronts.

by Sunny Hundal

It has been one of the most pervasive dictums of the last 18 months – that massive cuts to public services will make this government unpopular and halt them in their tracks. It has been echoed not only by lefties but also Tories, who are over-joyed that despite the cuts they are riding high in the polls.

I bought into this theory initially, but I don’t any more. My point is to say that raising expectations in such a way can be counter-productive.

by Guest

It has become a media consensus that turning a school into an academy will automatically turn it into a more successful school, improve its results.

But a closer look at the figures, which the mainstream media has conspicuously failed to carry out, shows a very different story.

by Sunny Hundal

George Eaton at the New Statesman says that ‘Labour has reason to hope’ because ‘new data shows that 88 per cent of Osborne’s cuts are still to come.’ To be blunt, having looked at the polls over the last 18 months, I now think this is hopelessly optimistic. I say this for several reasons.

by Jon Stone

Hopi Sen insists that In the Black Labour (ITBL) is a Keyensian project. He explains that “fiscal conservatism does not entail short-term fiscal stupidity” and compares ITBL’s publication now to writing a paper in the winter telling people to prepare for spring.

The message is that once the need for fiscal stimulus to revive the economy has passed, the principles of ITBL – not running a budget deficit – can be enshrined through the proposed measures; though not before.

But there is a problem: when has the time passed for a need for a stimulus to revive the UK economy?

by Richard Murphy

Expect £75 billion next week. That will be £350 billion in all of Quantitiative Easing.

The outcome is simple: another £75 billion of government debt will be purchased by the Bank of England. And as I explained last week, this debt will never be resold.

by Sue Marsh

Today, at 12.30pm the welfare reform bill will return to the Hous.

It is vast and impenetrable – most of the ministers arguing for it have very little understanding of the detail within it. Yes, that’s right, they don’t understand the details or effects of their own policies.

 

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