By AlJazeera Centre for Studies

Tensions surrounding the Iranian nuclear programme have risen again, but the main determinants of the issue remain largely the same as they had previously been. As before, these determinants will most likely reduce the chances of a war being waged against Iran. New factors – particularly the upcoming elections in the United States – will act as additional restraints preventing the launch of military operations against Iran in 2012.

Addressing a seminar organised by the Afro-Middle East Centre at its Hyde Park offices, Iraqi ambassador to South Africa, Hisham Al-Alawi, spoke about the challenges his country faces in establishing an indigenous democracy where Iraqis would take full control of state-building in a post-invasion context.

The AMEC seminar, on 14 March 2012, was themed ‘The Iraqi experience of democratic transition and establishing good governance’. Al-Alawi also challenged the assumption that Islam and democracy were incompatible. He emphasised, instead, that the principles of democracy were not only consistent with Islam, but were also integral to the faith and embedded in the Qur’anic text.

By Dr. Mohsen Saleh

Introduction

Fear of the Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan al-Muslimoon), the leading Islamist movement, has gained unprecedented international prominence since the beginning of the Arab uprisings. Outside official institutions this fear is most commonly found among liberal or ‘leftist’ figures. Western media also reflect common concerns about the Brotherhood that have been expressed by politicians in both Israel and the United States.

Concerns regarding Islamists heightened especially after it was realised that the Muslim Brotherhood or an associated organisation was involved in the protest movements in Egypt, Yemen and Jordan; and had also assumed significant roles in the uprisings in Libya and Syria. One of the key origins of this newfound “Ikhwanophobia” is the role played by Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist group that was formerly the Muslim Brotherhood.

By Laws & Processes (Jadaliyya & Ahram Online)

The following article was compiled by Jadaliyya and Ahram Online, and gives a brief and concise insightful guide to the upcoming Egyptian elections beginning on the 28th of November.

Egypt population: (est.) 85 million

Parliamentary composition: bicameral

• The People’s Assembly: the lower house

• The Shura Council: upper consultative house

By Abdulaziz Al-Heis

The decision to allow women to participate in the Shura Council and municipal councils of Saudi Arabia is an important step forward, especially given that Saudi Arabia is in dire need of any movement on this issue. At the same time, however, such a step is not expected to bring about the desired concrete and effective changes, given the limitations of the realities on the ground. Furthermore, the predominant popular and cultural impression of the Shura and municipal councils in the Kingdom is that they offer no space for any real and meaningful participation in the political decision-making of the state.

By Toufic Haddad

If the prisoner exchange deal announced on 11 October 2011 between Hamas and the Israeli government is fully implemented without major hitches, there is little question who ‘won’ this five-year war of wills: the deal will constitute a major victory for Hamas and the resistance-oriented political forces in Palestinian society, while simultaneously representing a significant retreat for Israel and its historical doctrines of forceful coercion and rejectionism vis-à-vis the Palestinian people and their rights.

By AlJazeera Centre for Studies

Whether foreseen or unexpected, the continuing developments in Tunisia’s political arena do not cease to surprise observers. With the approaching elections for the country’s Constituent Assembly, scheduled for 23 October, various voices are already calling for a referendum on the same day to decide on the length of the term of the Assembly. Meanwhile, employees of the state security apparatuses have launched a series of protest actions. These culminated on Tuesday, 6 September, when a number of security personnel who had been protesting in al-Qasabah Square in Tunis broke into the Government Palace where Tunisia’s prime minister, Beji Caid el Sebsi, was delivering a speech.

By Richard Falk and Phyllis Bennis

The latest United Nations report on last year’s lethal flotilla incident – in which nine people were killed and many injured by Israeli commandos on board a humanitarian ship bound for Gaza – was released at the beginning of September, and generated much controversy. On the one hand, the report makes clear that Israel’s use of force on board the Mavi Marmara and in the treatment of those detained on the ship was excessive and unreasonable. It acknowledges that forensic evidence indicates at least seven were shot in the head or chest, five of them at close range, and recognises that Israel still refused to provide any accounting of how the nine people were killed. It calls on Tel Aviv to compensate the families of those killed, eight Turks and one American, and also those who were seriously injured during and after the incident, passengers roughed up while in Israeli custody and whose cameras, cell phones and other belongings were confiscated.

By Na'eem Jeenah

The revolutionary fervor that swept across North Africa and the Middle East is leaving discernible imprints on the political and social landscape of South Africa. For many South Africans, the Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings gave new hope for the possibilities of what could be achieved through mass action.

For a people who had engaged in a long struggle for justice and freedom , but who had subsequently become largely demobilised, the idea of a despotic government being toppled through people’s power had become a distant idea tinged with the kind of romanticism that suggests it could not be replicated. That changed when other peoples on our continent,took to the streets, faced down the might of brutal security services and armed forces, and succeeded in forcing out their dictators. In South Africa, activist organizations, think tanks, and even businesses hosted events to discuss the events, and a protest was held outside the Egyptian embassy, with protesters shouting ‘irhal’ (Leave) as Husni Mubarak was still trying to cling to power.

The making of the 2011 constitution in Morocco has renewed debates and theoretical curiosity about the trajectory of elite accords and their impact on pushing countries in transition beyond their intermediate phase of liberalization. Proponents of cooperative transitions shaped by soft-liners within regimes and assisted by political and civil society actors assert that democratic transitions based on compromise and a strategic necessity to reform have a better chance of success in managing uncertainty and securing a safe exit from authoritarian rule. Despite its elitist and undemocratic nature, the new Moroccan political pact is desirable as it constitutionalizes the principles of individual rights (freedom of expression, freedom of association, criminalization of torture and arbitrary detention) and citizen equality, and convincingly enhances legislative capacity and access to the policy realm. Transitional periods, argue its advocates, are naturally characterized by limited levels of democracy, but as civic consciousness rises and political competition becomes fully routinised, potent political parties and civil society actors are bound to emerge, strengthening in the process the institutions of government and driving levels of democracy up.