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HEALTH-SOUTH AFRICA
HIV-Related Deaths Slow Economy
By Kristin Palitza
CAPE TOWN , Jan 27, 2012 (IPS) - If there was no HIV/AIDS, South Africa would have 4.4 million more people than
today, the size of a major city. This significant slow-down in population growth
is causing a slow down in economic growth and resulting in social ills,
researchers warn.
New data by research organisation South African Institute for Race Relations (SAIRR) show that South Africa should
theoretically count 55 million citizens this year. But it only has a population of 50.6 million.
By 2040, the country’s population would have been 77.5 million without AIDS – 24.1 million more
people than is projected for that year.
"The decrease of population growth has a negative impact on South Africa, because the group most
affected by HIV and AIDS is aged between 15
and 49 years, which is the most productive part of the population," explains SAIRR researcher
Thuthukani Ndebele of the date published on Jan. 23.
"If this age group continues to die early, we will see an acute social and economic impact throughout
the country," he warns. South Africa was quickly losing large chunks of its workforce and skills, which
led to loss of productivity.
The institute’s analysis – which is based on statistics sourced from the Actuarial Society of South Africa
and the South African Institute for Futures Research – shows that almost a third of all deaths in 2011
were AIDS-
related. By 2025, this proportion is expected to rise to a whopping 121 percent more AIDS deaths
than there were in 2000, according to SAIRR.
Economic experts have no doubt that this will slow down economic growth. "An epidemic like this one,
that effects a large proportion of the population, has undeniably a negative economic impact," confirms
David Hornsby, a researcher of the Department of International Relations at the University of the
Witwatersrand in Johannesburg. "It limits the amount of educated and skilled people who participate in
production, entrepreneurism, innovation and development."
SAIRR further predicts that the total number of people living with HIV/AIDS will reach six million in
2015, which is double the number recorded in 2000. "This should be a serious wake-up call for South
Africa. It would be a serious crisis for the country’s economic and social development to reach such a
high number of HIV infections and related deaths," says Hornsby.
Not only does HIV/AIDS reduce life expectancy and increase mortality, but it is largely responsible for
wider social ills such as orphanhood and child-headed households. In 2009, about two million South
African children had lost one or both parents, according to United Nations Children’s Fund
(UNICEF).
"Almost a third of South Africa’s population, or 31 percent, is under the age of 15 today," highlights
UNICEF chief of child survival and development Dr. Siobhan Crowley. "This signifies a serious population
imbalance. And the South African government is struggling to provide the support those young people
need, in terms of education, social welfare and health services."
The large number of orphans in this age group as well as households led by grandparents have started
to create an increased level of dependency on the social welfare system, which demands an ever bigger
growing slice of the country’s national budget.
South African social welfare organisations confirm persistently increasing levels of destitution due to
HIV/AIDS. "The numbers of families in need, people who are unable to meet their most basic needs, are
growing continously," cautions Bernice Roeland, director of Cape Town-based non-governmental
organisation AIDS Response.
She worries that without a concerted effort to prevent new HIV infections and handle existing infections
more effectively, the future burden on South Africa’s social welfare system will soon become
unbearable.
"Issues like social welfare, health, food security, poverty and housing are all tightly interlinked," says
Roeland. "If the long-term investments in our people, especially in our children, are not thorough
enough, the social system might eventually collapse."
SAIRR researchers say they are particularly concerned about the increased burden HIV/AIDS will have on
the public health system. According to the World Bank, South African spent almost nine percent of its
GDP on health in 2009 – almost double the amount than most developed nations. This percentage
might increase in the near future even further.
"Nine percent a significant amount. Health budgets might have to increase even further, if governments
wants to prevent HIV/AIDS having an even more negative impact on the economy than it already has,"
says Ndebele, pointing out that because HIV-positive people live longer due to live-saving treatment
with antiretroviral (ARV) medication, they also incur large amounts of health care expenditure before
their deaths. "AIDS deaths therefore cost government a lot of money. It’s not like dying in a car
accident," says Ndebele.
But there is also an upside: increased access to ARV treatment does help HIV-positive adults to stay
economically active for longer, thus alleviating other costs to the social system.
Experts from research, economic and social sectors therefore all stressed the urgent need to make a
bigger effort to prevent new HIV infections – as the only way to effectively reduce the costs of the
illness places on society.
Says Ndebele: "South Africa has 0.7 percent of the world population but accounts for about 17 percent
of all HIV cases globally. That correlation is worrying and needs to change."
(END)
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