Christopher Joye
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 13:37
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TD Securities always-excellent Annette Beacher comments after today's inflation data: Higher underlying CPI rattles confidence in a February cut. Core inflation stickier than expected... A higher than expected underlying CPI report for end 2011 takes some of the certainty out of our forecast 25bp rate cut for the February RBA Board meeting. The AUD firmed to $US1.05 and 3yr bond yields added 10bp after its release... We still expect a cash rate reduction of -25bp to 4% at the February 7 RBA Board meeting. Had underlying inflation softened to the extent that we anticipated, we had a near-100% conviction of this view. Now with inflation a little sticker than we expected, we have a 70% conviction, and co-incidentally the OIS probability of -25bp is also closer to 68% [from nearly 90% before]. |
Christopher Joye
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 13:28
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Christopher Joye
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 13:26
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A good summary from JP Morgan: The Q4 CPI data essentially delivered a 1-1 draw and, therefore, is inconclusive for next month’s RBA decision. The headline result printed softer than expected at flat (consensus 0.2%q/q, J.P.Morgan 0.4%q/q), but the all-important trimmed mean core measure was a little higher at 0.6%q/q (consensus 0.5%, JPM 0.7%). There was a small upward revision to the prior quarter’s core print to 0.4%q/q from 0.3%. This all leaves core inflation tracking at an average of 2.5%oya over the second half of last year, bang in line with the mid-point of the RBA’s target zone. Annual headline inflation remains above target at 3.1%oya, but it is trending down. |
Left Flank
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 13:04
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Here is a link to my article on feminism, published yesterday at the ABC's The Drum website. |
Independent Australia
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 12:17
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In an attempt to whitewash history, Tennessee Tea Party members are trying to eliminate references to slavery in American history textbooks. Marie Diamond from Think Progress reports. |
Christopher Joye
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 12:16
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The single best indication of the correct reaction to today's inflation data was in the financial market's response. In short, there was big disappointment--the market was, as I had correctly predicted, positioning for a very low number, and proved way wrong. Those economists forecasting super-low core inflation prints of around 0.2% or 0.3%--one was even angling for a negative number!--were frankly blown out of the water with the RBA's two core measures averaging 0.6% (to one decimal place). |
Catallaxy
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 11:55
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Once again the annual Demographia survey of house prices across seven English speaking nations places Australia in the front rank of the Hall of Shame on housing prices. Aside from land starved Hong Kong, Australia remains the highest cost housing market in the Anglo world. |
The Punch
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 11:45
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Julia Gillard will need to do more to win over the MPs who have deserted her than the offer of a sizzled sausage and a weekend whiteboard session. The love may have come too late. With Parliament due to resume in less than two weeks, the fragility of the PM’s leadership will be the issue she most has to deal with. And for her, there can be no moving forward from the horrors of last year, until she gets the monkey off her back. For that reason, Labor MPs are left with little doubt that the so called special caucus “planning day” scheduled for the Sunday before Parliament resumes, is all about Kevin Rudd. |
Ambit Gambit
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 11:14
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Anna Bligh has called the state election for March 24, one week before the council elections were due to be held. As a result the government (she) is going to reschedule the council elections until late April early May. This is not just a cynical political ploy, but it is desperate too as well as [...] |
Larvatus Prodeo
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 11:04
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Queensland Premier Anna Bligh has just announced that the state election, originally intended to be held on March 3, will now be held on March 24. Local Council elections, scheduled for March 31, will be delayed until April or May. |
Christopher Joye
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 10:41
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At this stage, I think a "surprise" will be anything equal to or less than 0.2% (ie, more than one standard deviation away from the consensus view of 0.5%). Even then, the market is really positioning for a low number, so it might not move huge. The upside is more complex. A "surprise" would certainly be 0.7% or higher, because nobody is expecting it. However, the price action will be in the interbank futures and OIS contracts, and less so in the 3 year government bonds given the structural demand for those contracts, as witnessed during 2011. That is, even with a high number I don't think many will have the balls to short Aussie bonds this far out from an RBA meeting. Having said that, the global theme is risk-on. |
Your Democracy
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 10:31
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An Onymous Lefty
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 10:27
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As Australians continue to be ripped off on digital content (Bernard Keane in yesterday’s Crikey exploring the ridiculous world of ebooks), it’s good to see that some of the former defenders of the copyright industry have now given up on it: As I suggested in the comments to Keane’s piece, our government should: |
Peter Martin
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 10:07
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ANZ: An outcome for underlying inflation of 0.8% q/q or more would be a genuine surprise. It would likely cause the RBA to revise up its inflation forecasts (after they cut them in November) and would lift the hurdle for a February rate cut considerably. |
The Punch
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 10:05
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The viewers are sick of it. The commentators are sick of it. The other players are sick of it - to the point where they’re asking the WTA to act, and even worse, taking the piss out of them behind their backs (see below video of Caroline Wozniacki and Kim Clijsters). Whether it’s cheating or not is open to discussion, but there’s no denying Maria Sharapova and her fellow screaming grunters are driving everyone around the bend. |
Pure Poison
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 10:02
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He can be a bit of a self-parody, Andrew Bolt. This warrior against “elites” has just come back from one of his not-at-all-elitist overseas trips, and once again he’s sniffing disdainfully at the inferiority of Melbourne:
Because, well, we’re just so crap: |
Your Democracy
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 09:32
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The Prime Minister has let us all down, particularly young people .... Some things transcend politics and policy and the lust for power. Truth, honesty, integrity, decency and fairness are immutable values. They are the ethical substance of life. They ought to be cherished. To sell them out is to sell one's soul. It is even worse when a leader expediently betrays these values, because it undermines the entire community. |
Your Democracy
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 09:30
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When you listen to street interviews with people in the troubled countries of the euro zone, a common complaint emerges: whereas some people waxed fat in the boom that preceded the crisis, it's ordinary workers who suffer most in the bust, and they and even poorer people who bear the brunt of government austerity campaigns intended to fix the problem. |
Your Democracy
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 09:27
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The genesis of the tennis grunt is disputed. Some say the grunt was invented in Nick Bollettieri's tennis laboratory where, convinced a noisy expulsion would help a player hit the ball harder, the famed coach played soundtracks from pornographic movies near the test tubes in which his ''Deci-belles'' were incubating. Others are adamant the shriek was secretly encouraged by the WTA Tour marketing department, which hoped to keep spectators awake during early-round matches. |
Christopher Joye
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 09:18
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For most of this year Australians have had to read asinine media articles reporting purported experts predicting catastrophically-large 20%, 40% and, last week, 60% falls in domestic house prices. The fact that these individuals have no experience successfully forecasting housing market conditions seems to be utterly inconsequential to the journalists desperately seeking to peddle doom-and-gloom. The best information we have today suggests that Aussie house prices will have tapered by around 3.5% over the course of 2011. That’s right: less than one-tenth the decline sensationally predicted by the closely-covered doomsayers (no prizes for guessing who I am referring to here). |
Huffington Post
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 09:08
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I hate to sound Pollyanna-ish, but sometimes the sunny point of view turns out to be right. Yes, corporate money has hijacked democracy. And it's true that our two-party system often fails to offer real choices or reflect the will of the majority. Our corporate political system doesn't have a problem. It is the problem. |
Independent Australia
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 09:02
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Today is the first anniversary of the Egyptian revolution. In the first of a two-part series for IA, freelance journalist and former Egyptian resident Max Opray says the tourism industry is still struggling. One year on from the January 25th Egyptian revolution, and the country’s tourism industry is still enduring tough times. |
Digitopoly
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 08:24
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Christopher Joye
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 08:02
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From UBS: OVERNIGHT DATA - Better than expected Euro zone PMIs * EU: Euro zone manufacturing PMI (Jan) was better than expected at 48.7 * EU: Manufacturing PMI rose in Germany to 50.9 (mkt 49, prev 48.4), but |
Peter Martin
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 07:50
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How did The Australian report the pleas about fiscal policy?
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Loon Pond
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 07:04
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Typically it was POTUS (that's OPTUS to you know nothing anti-Murdochians) who set the tone for the week with this message last night.
While the news about cyberlockers has fallen off the front pages, the fall-out from the Megaupload affair has been a virtual massacre of sites (Cyberlocker Ecosystem Shocked As Big Players Take Drastic Action).
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