Protect the Opportunity
So the Arab league suspended Syria’s membership. In my view, the primary intention of this is not to end the Syrian dictatorship but to end the real Syrian revolution.
The Gulf States never wanted to change Bashar or his regime. The Syrian revolution took them by surprise because they never planned for it. The Arab leaders initially advised Bashar to reform his government so he doesn’t lose the streets. Al Jazeera did not report on Syria in the first 4 weeks of the revolution. In fact, the Qatari prince visited the Syrian president to advice but the Syrian leader thought that he was being misled. Furthermore, the United States of America kept saying for a long time that the solution to the Syrian revolution is in reform. Bashar never listened or was as usual misled by his close net of advisers. He invented the conspiracy theory then believed it. There was no conspiracy at the beginning of the Syrian revolution. No regional or world leader has any interest in the instability of Syria. The conspiracy has started recently; it is the conspiracy to stop the real revolution and to claim authority over it. It is not in the Arabs’ best interest to have a democracy in Syria.
It is not in their best interest to have people from many sects and religions living peacefully together or rising up together. That doesn’t happen in the Gulf so why should it happen in Syria. Bashar was meant to secure the balance in Syria and keep it as dormant as ever. However, his obsession in keeping his position has made him paranoid. Eventually, he stopped thinking logically, made many mistakes in the last few months and misread the intention of others to the point that he lost his credibility in the eyes of his close allies. He lost his grip, which is why the Arab leaders have lost faith in him. Anyone who believes that the Gulf States are moving in purely to support Sunnis and overthrow Alawii is wrong. I personally don’t think that they care. Anyone who believes that the Arab States’ intention is to protect Syrian civilians is wrong and misguided; they never protected civilians in Bahrain or Saudi. What is important for Arab leaders is the balance that guarantees their places and chairs… Nothing else!!!
Syrian Eid al-Adha 2011
Not a great Eid in Syria. The traditional open air Eid prayers turned into anti-regime demonstrations and, as usual, the regime’s insecurity forces fired at the demonstrators. At least fifteen people were murdered today, including an infant. Many of the dead were in the central city of Homs, which has been a veritable war zone for weeks, the site of clashes between loyalist and defected soldiers as well as tank bombardments and sniper fire from the regime. In the last four days, since the regime supposedly agreed to release prisoners and withdraw its forces from civilian areas according to the Arab League plan, at least 80 people have been reported killed in the city.
There is one piece of very important good news, however. Burhan Ghalyoun, leader of the Syrian National Council, delivered an Eid address to the Syrian people which was carried by al-Jazeera. Ghalyoun, who does not wish to become a future president, was truly presidential. He appealed to those Syrians still hesitant or afraid to support the revolution, assuring them that the future Syria will be a state of citizenship and equal rights, and that minorities will be protected. Bringing larger sections of the Alawi and Christian minorities on board is the only way for the revolution to move forward, so Ghalyoun’s speech is most welcome, and long overdue. The English translation which follows after the break was posted at al-Jazeera’s live blog, but I found it at the excellent Walls.
Some Syria Resources
I am going through a period of (relatively) silent reflection on Syria. Of course, in Syria history continues to move at a rapid pace. At least 44 people were murdered by the regime yesterday. Today there is news of 17 soldiers killed by army deserters in Homs, a city which now appears to be in the early stages of a civil war. Syria’s criminal regime has brought this catastrophe on the country.
I’m remaining quiet for a while, but here are some highly recommended sites and articles. First, Walls is rapidly becoming the successor blog to Syria Comment, a space for intelligent discussion of the situation. Syria Comment was perceived by many (including me) to have lost its bearings. It always had a pro-regime and somewhat anti-Sunni slant; as the regime proved its stupidity and it became clear that the country would come closer to disintegration so long as the regime retained power, SC only reinforced its loyalty. Its reporting of events in Syria was highly selective, it gave a false view of the protestors, their motivations and leaders, it sometimes repeated absurd regime propaganda verbatim, and it even stooped to repeating false regime slanders of opposition figures. Now that Joshua Landis has taken a back seat the site is in less academic, even more blatantly partial hands. So it’s really good to see the Walls blog attracting SC’s best commentors and building such a big audience.
“Being Bashar al Assad”
Another excellent contribution by Aleppian:
Being Bashar Al Assad
The title is inspired from the movie “Being John Malkovich” which is about a puppeteer who discovers a portal that leads into the head of a movie star. Unfortunately, while we do not have direct access to Bashar’s thoughts, we can only guesstimate what the hell is going through his mind. At the time of writing, many important events have occurred since the start of the revolution in March, most notably the downfall and murder of Gaddafi, the Mubarak family behind bars, Saleh of Yemen nearly being blown up to pieces, and Ben Ali, who in hindsight was the smartest of all, now living in absentia.
The capture and murder of Gaddafi, and I say murder because of the contradicting evidence and the gaping hole in his head, would have given Bashar some food for thought more so than the other events. Besides the fact of invigorating the protests on the streets of Syria, his death must have been a sign of what destiny may yet hold for him. I cannot speak on behalf of all the protesters, but, surely the thought of Bashar having the same destiny as Gaddafi must have crossed their minds. And surely it must have crossed Bashar’s mind as well. The question is, would he have given it its two cents worth?
I would assume so. Firstly, Bashar is not in the same mould as his inner circle. He is not regarded as a leading figure, not one who commands authority, but rather a goofy figure that is only there to fill the gap left by his father Hafez, leaving his inner circle to pull the strings in Syrian politics, and if he is seen in such light by observers, then one would assume that this is only because he has a weak personality. Secondly, the regime has dug a massive hole of lies that no matter what he does, he will not be able to get out of. Thirdly, he does not have the power to go against his inner circle, as mostly are his family, and if he does, they will probably lock him up or exile him. Finally, Bashar has lost all respect and credibility from most foreign leaders, and I do not think any self-respecting leader will be able to host Bashar as a guest let alone be seen with him.
So it seems like he is in a similar situation to a dog cornered in a Mosque (this is an Arabic analogy for “you are screwed”). It may not seem like he is in trouble now, but, I believe at this moment in time he must be thinking about an escape route since it is more than likely that Syria will descend into a war between the people and the regime. And if that does happen, then you would probably see figures like Maher Al Assad, Asef Shawkat, Abdul Fatah Qudsiya, or Ali Mamluk, take a more central role. These are the people who, like Gaddafi, have the belief that they and their militia are the most powerful people in Syria. Bashar on the other hand will be used a puppet to direct people’s anger.
I wonder if Bashar still drives around Damascus with his fancy first lady.
Morale Boost for the Syrian Protesters
There isn’t much I can say here about the death of Gaddafi that hasn’t already been said, but from the perspective of Syria, his death is a major blow for the Syrian regime. Although Assad’s supporters would be quick to say that Syria is not Libya, deep down they must know that the Colonel was a very good friend of Hafez al Assad, and there were strong intelligence and economic links between the two regimes. When the Libyan regime first started facing protests, Syria began sending pilots to Libya along with Algeria, mainly because Libyan pilots were refusing to fire upon the rebels and were defecting to Malta and Italy as soon as they took off. The Syrians also sent a ship to allegedly pick up the Syrian families and workers there, a curious move the reasons of which might only become clear if the Syrian regime collapses one day.
Today it is Friday, and the deaths and protests in Syria have already begun. Yet somehow it seems as if there is something new, and vigorous in the protests. With the Arab Spring claiming its third dictator, the spotlight is now on Syria in a way that it has never been before. It seems that a repeat of NATO’s intervention in Libya is out of the question with Syria, but perhaps that won’t be necessary if the pressure is maintained on the Syrian regime. Even as this is written, there are reports that Syria is planning to switch to Russian Roubles rather than the Euro, in light of the unilateral economic sanctions that have been placed on Syria and the Assad regime. As far as I have been able to tell, Syrian oil is still not being bought in any way that is viable, and Syria’s economy is at a standstill, if not yet in freefall, because of the protests that have paralysed the country. The Assad camel has a lot of straws on its back as it is, so it’s possible that time will accomplish what sanctions and foreign intervention cannot.
Some thoughts on Syria’s “First Lady”
More on Asma al Assad, this time from the British “Independent” newspaper:
She asked us about the risks of working under the current conditions,” he added. But when she was told about the abuses of power being committed by her husband’s notorious secret police, Mrs Assad’s blank face left them unimpressed. “She sees everything happening here. Everything is all over the news. It’s impossible she doesn’t know,” said the volunteer. Yet even if Mrs Assad does know about the worst of the violence and the 3,000 civilians human rights groups accuse the regime of killing, many people who have met her question what she could possibly do about it.
“Whatever her own views, she is completely hamstrung,” said Chris Doyle, the director of the Council of Arab-British Understanding. “There is no way the regime would allow her any room to voice dissent or leave the country. You can forget it.”
I have never been a big fan of Asma al Assad, even when she was at the height of her popularity. I would have friends here in London who would excitedly tell me that they had met her family, or just had tea with her mother. My suspicions of her were reinforced when I was involved with a documentary about Syria and saw some footage of her with some school girls.
She was sat with them in a classroom, discussing their career and business plans, and innocently posed a question to one of the girls. She asked her what she’d do if her future husband told her he didn’t want her to work anymore. The girl was a bit confused and laughed nervously. Not sure what to say. At that moment, the Adhan was called out, and everybody went quiet, until Asma started to laugh at the sound of it. The schoolgirls did the same.
That is not the behaviour a so-called first lady is expected to have for a country that is largely Muslim, who is herself originally so, and in front of school children. You would not see the American First Lady giggle in ridicule if she heard church bells whilst sitting with school children, nor would you expect this from the British monarch or the head of state of any country who actually identifies with their own people. Syria is a secular country true, but as the so-called first lady and wife of the (then) head of state (his security services had not yet killed three thousand Syrian people yet) she must have beeen prepared to respect – at least outwardly – the faiths of all Syrians and regardless of her own personal beliefs. That video clip, and other little things, shaped my perception of this silly person as an Englishwoman who happened to have Syrian roots – and there is nothing wrong with that – but thought by marrying a president she could transform Syria, gradually, into her own version of an idyllic Avalon, and that is something very wrong. I think that her vision of Syria can now safely be relegated to the dustbin of history, and any hopes she may have had of a future life of dazzling state pageantry, glamour and importance along with it. The fairy tale is over Mrs Assad.
A Syrian Reader’s Contributions
Aleppian (a pseudonym) is an ex-pat who flies back and forth between Syria regularly. Here are his thoughts on what he believes freedom means, and his fears from what the future holds for his country.
What does freedom mean for Syrians
Freedom has various meanings depending on which side of the fence you sit on, and for most Syrians, you are either with or against the regime. I have always been against the regime and this article is mostly about my personal perceptions of what freedom means for the thousands of brave Syrians risking their lives against the cruel and oppressive forces of this regime.
I was watching the Syrian state television interviewing a female student about her thoughts on the “troubles” Syria is going through and what freedom really meant for her. What caught my attention during her 15 minutes of fame was
the way she condemned the opposition supporters, accusing them of conspiring with foreign elements to destabilise Syria, while not knowing what freedom actually meant. Apparently this made her angry because if she was to press
any of them about it, they would simply reply back with a blank look followed by silence. The read between the lines message of the whole interview was that the opposition do not know what they are talking about, are putting Syria in danger, and is all part of a big foreign conspiracy. In her final statement, she proudly declares what freedom means for her: the ability to have a coffee with her friends whenever she likes.
I don’t think I need to bother commenting on her statement. Obviously the opposition movement know what freedom is all about, and it is important here to try to put yourself in their shoes, because when they take to the streets demanding the downfall of the regime, they are also risking their lives either by being shot at or arrested by security forces, and we all know what happens to you when you are arrested. When one risks all for such a cause then you know that it is an important cause. And for this reason it is imperative to hit home what freedom actually means, I don’t hear it enough, I know what it means, yet I don’t hear it enough on the news, blogs, Facebook, or Twitter.
Let’s take an average Syrian as an example, his name is Hani, has three children and his wife is pregnant. Hani is finally looking to setup his own business in the suburbs of Damascus; he has found a small shop to rent where he plans to start selling mobile phones and work in communications. The first hurdle in Hani’s plan is to get a license. Where do you get a license from? You need to go to the local council. At the council he is told that he won’t be able to get the license from here. Why? Isn’t this allowed by law? Do I have the right to open a business? Yes and yes, but you ultimately need to get approval from the mukhabarat (internal security forces, though more akin to the Gestapo in my view). Why? What does the mukhabarat have to do with me earning a living? It’s just the way it is. Deal with it. How long does this take? Don’t know. So three months pass by and no news from the mukhabarat, the shop has gone to someone else, is running out of money, won’t be able to feed his family, has debts to pay off, and is worried about his future, so decides to open up a shop anyways and wait for the approval.
Hani eventually waited 4 years for the approval to be issued by the mukhabarat. During that period he was frequently visited by members of the police, the mukhabarat, and even the council threatening to close his business as he does not have a valid license. Hani obviously protested but on deaf ears. Luckily for him they were willing to turn a blind eye if he paid them, which he had to do, otherwise how the hell is he going to feed his family if he is sent to prison for “violating” his right to earn a living? Hani thus became a source of income for these government officials.
If this is not a mafia then I do not know what is. This is a common theme for all middle to lower classes in Syria, for example, a farmer in the country side has to get approval from the mukhabarat to drill a well in his own farm. Another one that amuses me the most, are young Syrians looking for job opportunities abroad had to worry about applying for permission from the mukhabarat first before they even applied for a visa. In essence, nothing can be done without the approval of the mukhabarat and is just the tip of the iceberg as the role of the feared mukhabarat goes way deeper than this.
The Syrian people have been intimated by the regime and mukhabarat for over 40 years, while the elite enjoy privileges and rights an average Syrian only dreams of. Unfortunately for Syria, the elite rob the wealth of the land
and the mukhabarat rob the wealth of the people. The Syrian people want to be freed from this oppressive rule of the mukhabarat and the regime. This is what freedom means to them.
Syria at a crossroad
I often wonder what would happen if the Syrian regime manages to stay in power. The revolution certainly caused a shock to the system since Bashar and the regime must have been under the illusion that the Arab Spring will not affect Syria. One wonders then, what measures the regime will take to stop the uprising from ever happening again? A close friend of mine jokingly remarked that if the regime was to stay in power then any new born baby that doesn’t shout “God, Syria, and Bashar” the security forces will immediately send it back to its mother’s womb. Many people consider Syria to be quite backward, and many fear that the regime will make Syria go backwards another 300 years, even though Bashar has announced various reforms.
On the other hand, people are also fearful of a Syria without the iron grip of Bashar, his family, and the security forces, and rightly so, as no one can guarantee a bright and prosperous future for Syria if the revolution were to
succeed in overthrowing the regime. I am often surprised at hearing the responses to the question of whom or what is the alternative to Bashar. I would just love to hear a response that simply states: “We don’t care, let it be whoever,
what is important is that the people are not afraid anymore, if the alternative is as bad as Bashar then we will fight for our rights again”.
At least with the latter scenario we have hope. I truly believe that Syrians have little confidence in the reforms undertaken by Bashar, for example, the emergency law has been replaced with the terrorism law which in essence are the same thing but worded differently, a new media law allowing freedom of expression but one does not see press criticising Bashar and his family or high ranking government officials, a demonstration law where one has to provide the name of every single demonstrator and be personally liable to any damages and costs, a multi-party law that allows the creation of political parties but has to be approved via a committee whose members are unknown and has to abide to ridiculously low budgets, a law that abolishes all penalties incurred by farmers but without mentioning that all these penalties were made up by the security forces in the first place and was a source of income for them.
All these reforms sound promising yet they are deceptive in nature, the regime, in my opinion, wants to delay elections, or any real reforms, for as long as possible, or until they manage to re-instil the same level of fear that Hafez so successfully managed to do. Right now, if the regime removed their tanks, snipers, shabeeha, and allowed free elections under UN supervision then you will really see who is with the regime and who is not. The regime knows there is a fair majority who are yet silent. These are the people the regime wants to control via fear, the killing, arrest, and torture of peaceful demonstrators, or via media propaganda which bombards people ignorant enough to watch or listen with constant fabricated claims that this crisis is a foreign conspiracy. Besides, no elections can be even considered to be meaningful as long as rule 8 (Baath party has sovereignty over the people and parliament) of the constitution still exists, and according to state media is currently being studied, which for me,
means the regime are trying to find a way to keep their sovereign rule but in a subtle way. Let us not forget in 2000 when the regime changed the law in less than 5 minutes to allow Bashar to be president.
Syria was taken by force 40 years ago, and unfortunately it can only be retrieved by force. Bashar has had over 10 years to enact real reforms and lead Syria into a prosperous and bright future many of us dream of. So let us ask
ourselves this: what has the regime done for us? What has the regime done for our children? The Syrian elite will not struggle to answer this question, but the rest will.
Syria is at a crossroad because the ruling family are not willing to let Syria go without a fight. I suspect they would rather burn Syria down than lose their grip on the country. Unfortunately also, the time when the pen is mightier than the sword is not for now; it is for when the regime falls.
The Syrian News Roundup
Here is a clip on Youtube of what is said to be a massive funeral march for a child, Ibrahim Muhammad Shaiban, who was shot dead this Friday past. It set off from the Daqaq mosque in the Midan area of Damascus and the crowd are chanting slogans such as: [Let] The Syrian raise his hand, we don’t want Bashar!
The sound, as you can hear from the clip, appears to thunder from this enormous crowd, and there do not appear to be any security personnel or shabiha around.
The Arab League emergency meeting about Syria has been held today, amidst calls for Syria’s membership to be suspended – as happened with Libya – but the General Secretary Nabil al Arabi has dismissed any possibility of this happening. In fact it doesn’t look likely that anything will arise out of this meeting. The Arab League, under Mr Arabi has been visibly toothless with regards to Syria. In a sense they seem to be very good at drawing red line after red line for the Syrian regime. Of course it isn’t entirely fair to place a bigger burden on the league than it can bear, it is only as good as the sum of its parts – and the Arab states leave much to be desired.
The Asia One News site says: Arms Smuggling into Syria Flourishes: Experts
“Smuggling networks that for years have operated along Syria’s borders seem to have turned to weapons trafficking in recent months,” said Peter Harling, a Damascus-based expert with the International Crisis Group.
“It appears that a market has quickly developed in a country which, contrary to Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen or Libya, had few weapons circulating beforehand,” he told AFP.
The article goes on quoting Harling as saying that no one faction or side appears to be behind the increase, contrary to what the Syrian regime claims is happening.
A strange headline from the Washington Post, claiming that, “Syria’s Assad Regime is a Threat to the US“. Considering that the United States and Israel have both carried out military actions against targets in Syria with absolutely no reaction by the Syrian army, I would have thought such a statement to be ridiculous. In fact the opposite is probably more true, as Syria’s army is deployed in Syrian cities to repress protests rather than defend the country, or threaten the United States.
Human Rights Watch have criticised the IBSA bloc (India, Brazil and South Africa) to do more to stop the bloodshed in Syria:
India, Brazil, and South Africa are not leveraging their rising global influence to help stop the bloodshed in Syria, Human Rights Watch said today. Leaders of the three countries should use their two-day Heads of State and Government Dialogue Forum, hosted by President Jacob Zuma on October 17, 2011, to categorically demand that the Syrian government end its widespread and systematic attacks on antigovernment protesters and activists. Syria should also grant access to UN investigators and human rights monitors, Human Rights Watch said.
From Haaretz, the news that the Lebanese authorities have prevented a shipment of arms from reaching Syria. This is according to the official Lebanese National News Agency.
In Syria, the new Iranian envoy, ambassador Mohamed-Reza Sheibani has said that the ties between Syria and the Islamic Republic will expand.
“Relations between the two countries have always been special, and they grew stronger after the Islamic Revolution in Iran… My mission in Syria aims to strengthen the good bilateral ties, and we shall work with officials in both Iran and Syria to overcome the difficulties and challenges that Syria faces,” the Iranian envoy said.
German documentary on the Syrian Revolution
Another documentary about the Syrian revolution. A German journalist managed to enter Syria and remain there undetected as she filmed this footage and interviewed people involved with the protest movement. Quite insightful, and helpfully subtitled in Arabic as well.
NB. Apologies, I had written earlier that the subtitles are in English. That was a mistake on my part. Actually, the subtitles are in Arabic and there doesn’t seem to be a video with English subtitles.
