Bits and pieces… A new blog…the economy, Havel, the Central Library, sweets from a stranger, Sick pay and the private sector, mortgages and just what does house ‘ownership’ mean, ‘lazy’ Greeks, ‘hardworking’ Germans? And as others see the EU. January 6, 2012
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, European Politics, Irish Politics, US Politics.add a comment
First up a new blog about SIPTU which will be of interest to many of us, it’s here.
Interesting piece in the Guardian by Gavan Titley and John O’Brennan which asks the reasonable question where is the reward for the Republic being the poster child for austerity. Of course there is no reward. This is ‘medicine’ and therefore has to be accepted come what may.
But as interesting are the comments. There’s the usual boilerplate about ‘living beyond means’ and ‘brought it on your/ourselves’, but as one person points out that’s all very fine, but explain away the intriguing thought that during the 2000s the Republic was the… er… poster child for the previous economic orthodoxy, a period where the IMF, ratings agencies, ECB [and not immaterially the Conservative Party as the writer notes] et al were hardly falling over themselves to show up any inconvenient issues like a… well… property boom fuelled off a banking and building sector gone mad.
No indeed.
Always quite liked Vaclav Havel, but not so keen on his approach to the Iraq war.
One small snippet that may have escaped peoples attention is the issue over the relocation of the Central Library in Dublin. Originally it was slated to be positioned in the old Ambassador cinema, a location that for any bibliophile would be more or less perfect. Seems though that that is now on hold.
“Space plan modelling and feasibility testing of the requirements of the city library brief revealed a minimum space requirement of 5,000 sq metres in a landmark building in the heart of Dublin City Centre. This was not achievable within the site of the Ambassador Theatre.”
The lease on the Ilac expires in 2016 and the council said it would be “desirable” to have the new library opened by this date. A number of sites in the city centre are under consideration including buildings of “significant educational, architectural and historic interest”, the council said.
It said it could not estimate the costs of developing the library until a specific site was selected.
With a lease up in 2016 where the CL goes next is an interesting question. The current library which I use very regularly is good on many levels, but there are clear problems with it as a study noted…
“It is inadequate for reasons, which include poor location, no public visibility and no off-street presence, all detrimental to maximising the potential for attracting public usage.”
It’s funny, I’d never thought about the ‘no public visibility/off-street presence’ before, and it is amazing, isn’t it, that a pivotal public service should be squirreled away in a shopping centre. It’s not so much that there’s a problem with it being accessible from the shopping centre so much as not being accessible from the street.
Meanwhile, before Christmas on my way with the creature to the Central Library one Saturday morning a teenager in handed out a bag of Haribo sweets. Now not to me, but to the creature directly. Naturally, being three and a half, the creature was grateful, or at least gratefully puzzled, because she isn’t used to people handing her sweets just like that [or wasn’t before Christmas]. But I found it pretty intrusive, not least because in any other context I’d expect to be asked whether it was okay. It’s not that I’m po-faced about sweets, though the intake is limited. But a company, a corporation, handing out sweets to very small children, or indeed any children, without making any effort to talk about this with parents or guardians irritates me. And granted, it’s most likely not the fault of those handing these sweets out, but… Given that the hapless Ivor Callely, rightly got serious flak for his canvassers sticking election badges on children leaving a school in his constituency some time back it’s difficult to know what the justification is for this other than increasing Haribo’s no doubt reasonably healthy profit margins.
There’s still some sort of entertainment to be had in the response of the…erm… private sector… to the news that the government is shifting the burden of sick pay onto them. But there’s no end of allies of the private sector willing to step forward, like the following:
Fianna Fáil spokesman on social expenditure Barry Cowen said businesses would be facing a VAT increase of 2 per cent on top of commercial rates in a context of reduced turnover and retail spending. This would be a further imposition on employers and seemed to be anti-jobs, he added.
And FF aren’t alone, for sitting at the same cabinet table, according to the Sunday Business Post are opponents:
A fresh cabinet row is looming between social protection minister Joan Burton and jobs minister Richard Bruton over the issue of employee sick pay. Following a consultation period, Burton is likely to proceed with plans to cut the state’s contribution to employees’ sick pay, which currently costs the exchequer some Ђ900 million a year.
However, Richard Bruton has warned cabinet colleagues that Burton’s plans would cost jobs and unfairly target the private sector, and is simply a revenue-raising exercise by the social protection minister.
Does all the rhetoric about according to European ‘norms’ in other areas mean nothing? Apparently not. Though the disparities are truly breath-taking. Joan Burton, let’s give her her due, did a little research…
“The extent to which employers are liable varies significantly, with two years in the Netherlands, 28 weeks in the UK and north of the Border, and nine days in Finland,” she added.
Is it not instructive how vehemently this particular initiative is being pushed back against. Sauce of the goose… springs to mind. But as even the most cursory perusal of Conor McCabe’s book will demonstrate – as noted here recently, this is a state which was established and run to assist the upper middle class in their ‘business’, so why change now?
An interesting point was made to me recently that in technical terms most people who have mortgages don’t actually own their houses and in this respect the household charge is problematic. After all, if one has a mortgage the mortgage provider owns the house. I’ve already noted the significant issues around the lack of non-recourse mortgages in this state, but that merely emphasises that property devolves back to the provider and that the ‘owner’ then gets hit for the outstanding mortgage. Indeed one could argue that it was this that made the dynamics of the last decade in relation to property to pernicious, the idea that there was genuine ‘ownership’ of houses, rather than a situation where effectively the house is rented off the mortgage provider until the full amount is paid. One wonders how many coughs would have been softened if ‘ownership’ had been presented as ‘rental’ on behalf of mortgage providers during that period. Perhaps even the ‘ballsy’ guys beloved of Brendan O’Connor might have hesitated in their dreams of taking over the property world.
It is notable how many landlords are saying they will pass the charge onto tenants. This seems to be a complete distortion of what should be taking place. But it points up the entirely confused issue of ‘ownership’ of property.
I’m not sure this will have any traction at all with government, but it might be interesting to see what a legal challenge might do.
And here’s a mythbuster from Matthew Yglesias of Slate.com…
It’s true that Germans and Greeks work very different amounts, but not in the way you expect. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the average German worker put in 1,429 hours on the job in 2008. The average Greek worker put in 2,120 hours. In Spain, the average worker puts in 1,647 hours. In Italy, 1,802. The Dutch, by contrast, outdo even their Teutonic brethren in laziness, working a staggeringly low 1,389 hours per year.
If you recheck your anecdata after looking up the numbers, you’ll recall that on that last trip to Florence or Barcelona you were struck by the huge number of German (or maybe they were Dutch or Danish) tourists around everywhere.
And Yglesias makes an excellent point here which is well worth reflecting upon:
The truth is that countries aren’t rich because their people work hard. When people are poor, that’s when they work hard. Platitudes aside, it takes considerably more “effort” to be a rice farmer or to move sofas for a living than to be a New York Times columnist. It’s true that all else being equal a person can often raise his income by raising his work rate, but it’s completely backward to suggest that extraordinary feats of effort are the way individuals or countries get to the top of the ladder. On the national level the reverse happens—the richer Germans get, the less they work.
Finally, Left Right and Centre on KCRW continues to be a source of… well, something or another. I like it. Host Matt Miller nailed it for me when he was discussing the latest Eurozone ‘agreement’. As he put it…
I guess what still mystifies me is this focus on using this crisis to enforce some sort of budget discipline for European states, or Germany using this moment to enforce better long term budget discipline. That’s a nice thing in theory but it’s not really what’s needed for the immediate crisis which is some kind of back stop for the banking system and for the sovereign debt that all of a sudden everyone is spooked about and nobody wants to hold because of a fear of Greece which was a big budget problem. But Italy had been on a better budget trajectory before, so had Spain and it just seems like they’re using this moment to try to clamp down on the Budget stuff in ways that isn’t going to be … it’s not what the real issue is in the near term.
Amen.
The Forgotten Emigrants – Irish American Radicals in the early 20th century January 6, 2012
Posted by irishelectionliterature in United States, US Politics.add a comment
Fascinating article over at the Irish History Podcast site.
The Forgotten Emigrants – Irish American Radicals in the early 20th century.
This Week At The Irish Election Literature Blog January 6, 2012
Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Election Literature Blog.Tags: election ephemera, fianna fail, Irish Politics
2 comments
Starting off this week with a 1979 Local Elections leaflet from the Socialist Labour Party candidates Bert Bennett, Máirín Breheny, Jim Maher and Dr. Dave Neligan who were running in Artane. In the leaflet there are profiles of the candidates , a message from Noel Browne and policies of the Socialist Labour Party.
On then to a recent Sinn Fein Superhero Beermat
Then from the 1972 Referendum on EEC entry a striking image presented by the Irish Farmers Association “If you don’t want to go back to this…. vote ‘yes’”
Then From 1978 “The Aims of Fianna Fail”
Finally from 1992 and 1989 “Greyhound Supporters -Remember Your Friends”
The Wood for the Trees. Another Massive Leap for Progress. Or, More Ignoring of Imperialism. January 5, 2012
Posted by Garibaldy in Commemoration, Republicanism.3 comments
The recent trend for commemorating WWI as a good thing because Catholics and Protestants/Unionists and Nationalists both fought in it is something that drives me absolutely nuts (previous rants include this against Myers, this in praise of Nadine Coyle, and this. Usually we are spared this rubbish apart from the run-up to November 11th, but Belfast City Council’s decision to invite an Irish minister to its Somme commemoration has brought it back into the spotlight.
The motion, from former Lord Mayor Pat McCarthy of the SDLP (and former member of the Republican Clubs to save anyone else the trouble of pointing that out), was unopposed, with PSF abstaining on the grounds that this should have been dealt with by a sub-committee that exists to deal with the forthcoming centenaries (kicking off this year with the Ulster Covenant). There’s a thread about this on Sluggerotoole that makes for depressing reading. Amidst all the sound and fury, no reflection on what the war actually meant, nor what it was about. One of the greatest disasters in human history, the very epitome of all that is wrong with imperialism, reduced to a petty squabble about here.
This is the reality of politics in Northern Ireland still. Empty gestures that are in and of themselves are often either meaningless or – as in this case – utterly reactionary, and serve only to reveal how either variety of nationalism (British or Irish) on offer in the north is inherently limited in its potential to be progressive. So wrapped up are they in their combat with one another, any place for consistently progressive politics, for secularism, for class politics, gets squeezed out almost entirely by all-too-often sectarian forms of populism. See the 11 Plus debacle for a fine example. Unfortunately, this is what the people want, and this is especially what the middle and lower middle classes represented best by the DUP and PSF especially like. In my opinion, anyone who considers themselves a principled progressive who can look at these maps and think about the commemoration of WWI in positive terms because of nationalism and unionism in Ireland is kidding themselves. I’ve mentioned this before, but in 2003, The WP in Waterford opposed the erection of a statue to a VC winner by proposing a memorial to all the victims of imperialism. No doubt in my mind which is the progressive option, and which is the message most fit to build class unity across the island.
“We are at war with Eastasia. We’ve always been at war with Eastasia. We will always be at war with Eastasia” or… Austerity in perpetuity. January 5, 2012
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics.4 comments
Read this New Years piece by Michael Taft for a sense of what the above means in terms of our GDP/debt projections past the supposed Maastricht compliance target of 2015.
Houses, houses everywhere… January 5, 2012
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics.4 comments
Reading the Sunday Business Post at the weekend one would be forgiven for getting the impression that in terms of housing things were easing up. Under the heading ‘The Decline and Fall of Bricks and Mortar’ Michelle Devane noted though that:
For a fifth consecutive year, we’re starting the new year with falling property prices. A lack of disposable income, oversupply and a lack of credit continues to affect the market negatively and hinder any recovery. The latest CSO figures show the rate of decline in house prices accelerated in November – property prices across the country fell by 15.6 per cent in the year to November.
Which is all very sensible. But then quoted are a range of opinions which seem panglossian, at best.
Economist Ronan Lyons said looking at multiples of rents and incomes, 2012 could well be the year that prices in some parts of the country reach their ‘natural’ level. But, he said, three factors might prevent prices levelling off.
…
Lyons anticipates a further fall of 15 per cent in house prices this year..
And…
Marian Finnegan, chief economist with Sherry FitzGerald, the largest estate agency in the country, forecast a more modest single-digit decline for this year. But she said it would not be homogeneous across the market….
She maintains the property market is “poised for recovery”.
And…
Like O’Driscoll, Felicity Fox of the estate agency of the same name in Dublin, believes that prices are virtually at the bottom for mature houses in prime areas of the capital.
“I’m hoping we are at the bottom. It certainly feels that way. When property is priced correctly, there are a number of prospective buyers bidding,” she said.
The areas that should recover most quickly are those still in demand even in this turbulent climate, such as Dublin 2, 4, 6 and part of D8, due to their proximity to the city centre, the Dart and the Luas line, according to Fox.
[by the way, note the location of those ‘in demand’ locations]
Then a much needed note of reality:
…whereas Savills Ireland residential director Ronan O’Driscoll said he expected prices could fall as much as 30 per cent in some areas this year.
And…
Aoife Brennan of Lisney’s research department said many house prices were now well below the cost of construction but prices would continue falling until the money was available to buy them.
But perhaps bundling all those more negative statements together comes one that is eminently sensible – and quoted in the Irish Times no less on foot of a report for the IT’s own little property empire, MyHome.ie:
Annette Hughes, director of DKM Economic Consultants, who wrote the MyHome.ie report, said prices would not stabilise until there was sustained economic and employment growth.
And how soon is that likely to occur in a deflationary economy with 14 per cent unemployment?
Fetishising ‘choice’ in taxation… January 5, 2012
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics.add a comment
A real insight into the attitudes of some as regards taxation and VAT in particular, and the VAT increases specifically, is provided in the Sunday Business Post by Pascal Brennan, ‘indirect tax partner’ in Deloitte. He starts as he means to continue:
Whatever the real financial impact of indirect tax increases, it always helps if you feel you have a choice whether you incur a tax or not. How real that choice is – when essentials such as clothes, petrol or diesel for the car are taken into account – is debatable. Nevertheless, it still just feels better when you open your pay packet and find that it has not been depleted again.
Think about it. The reality of living on a low income, with service provisions remaining more or less constant but income tax increased is outweighed in his mind by the ‘feeling’ of choice. Even if, as he more than half-admits, this choice is an illusion. This doesn’t merely illuminate an attitude to tax matters, and underline the remarkable, almost fetishistic aversion to increasing income taxes on the part of those who could be defined as comfortable or well off, it also points to the remarkable, some would say wilful, detachment from that already mentioned reality.
And even the examples he provides are telling.
Following the recent budget increase, the Irish Vat rate will be the highest in the EU after Sweden, Denmark and Hungary, which each have rates of 25 per cent, followed by Romania with 24 per cent. Ireland will share the third highest rate with Poland, Finland, Greece, Portugal and Italy.
Except Sweden and Denmark have strong and resilient social welfare networks so that high VAT is mitigated by social provision – moreover it would be interesting to see the sorts of goods and services that VAT covers in those two states.
Brennan argues:
The prevailing wisdom across Europe just now is that increasing indirect taxes is preferable to increasing direct taxes when it comes to the impact on consumer confidence. On balance, I believe this is a correct assessment.
But on what basis does he agree with that assessment? He tells us nothing.
Then note the following:
For those younger folk complaining about the increased Vat rate, a glance back at the rates during the last recession provides some context. In 1983, the ‘low’” rate of Vat was actually 23 per cent and the standard rate was 35 per cent. Looking further back to the 1970s, there were Vat rates as high as 40 per cent on electrical goods.
Now this is an interesting argument, not least because it seems unlikely that he would argue for, say, raising income tax to it’s 2000 level. So presumably we can dismiss it as entirely rhetorical.
He continues:
As far as the current increase is concerned, it is likely that many retail businesses will absorb the costs of the increase rather than try to pass it on. The rate increase represents only €20 on a spend of €1,000, so its effect on the average weekly household spend is unlikely to be noticeable to all but the most hard-pressed.
Take an average shopping basket and the effects are even lower because of the zero Vat rate on most essential food items. Even if half of the shopping was liable to Vat at the standard rate – which is probably an over-estimation given that the majority of it would be spent on food – the change in Vat rate would add only €2 to a shopping bill of €200 if it is actually passed on in full by retailers.
But here’s the problem. VAT doesn’t exist in isolation. For the hard-pressed, ‘most’ or not, it is but a part of a broader withdrawal of state services and provision (and his optimism as regards it not being passed on seems misplaced) so it is not simply a matter of €2, and of course it’s not just about the ‘average’ shopping basket but about adult clothes and other goods which are also by any reasonable definition necessities.
These measures will impact and harder than Brennan’s analysis would suggest. But then when it’s all about ‘feelings’ as against hard reality how could it be otherwise?
The irony is that reading the editorial in the same edition of the SBP one sees a plea for ‘more stability and less uncertainty’. It’s been mentioned here before. There is markedly greater uncertainty at present over the raft of indirect taxes and various charges and their economic impact than there ever would be over a simple increase in income tax. But somehow this is lost in the noise generated by those whose apparent motto is to have what they already hold rather than genuinely sharing the burden.
But no problem. Next time you’re concerned about your wages [assuming you have a job and that's not a given by any means - though somehow that small detail also gets lost in the narrative] and increasing charges just open that pay packet and bask in the intangible sense of choice – it may do absolutely nothing real for you, but it’ll do wonders for those on higher incomes not paying more tax.
An A to Z of Parties and Labels in Irish Elections from 1924 to date January 4, 2012
Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish History, Irish Politics.Tags: Irish History, Irish Politics
25 comments
Have spent the last while trawling through old election results and was surprised at the amount of different parties and Labels that candidates put themselves forward under. This was especially the case for Local Elections.
Needless to say many of these parties / groups were not registered, so I relied on leaflets, books, old newspaper cuttings and more to get the names.
Would love to know if there are more that I’ve missed.
Agricultural League
Ailtirí na hAiséirghe
An Chomhdhail Phobail | People’s Convention
Anti-Communist
Army Wives
Businessmens Party
Cannabis Legalisation Party
Cavan Road Action Group
Chamber of Commerce
Christian Centrist Party
Christian Democrats
Christian Principles Party
Christian Solidarity Party
Cine Gael
Clann Éireann
Clann na Poblachta
Clann na Talmhan
Coiste Cearta Sibhialta na Gaeltachta
Combined Residents Associations
Communist Party of Ireland
Communist Party of Ireland (Marxist-Leninist)
Community Party
Community Democrats of Ireland
Conservative and Unionist
Constitutional Group
Córas na Poblachta
Cork Socialist Party
Cumann na nGaedheal
Cumann na Poblachta
Cumann Poblachta na hÉireann
Cumhacht
Democratic Left
Democratic Socialist Party
Direct Democracy Ireland
Donegal Progressive Party
Ecology Party of Ireland
Éirígí ***
Farmers
Fathers’ Rights-Responsibility Party
Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Fis Nua
GAY (Gay and Lesbian Equality Campaign)
Green Party/ Green Alliance
GOD- (For Bible Readings in the Dail)
H-Block
Immigration Control Platform
Independent
Independent Farmer
Independent Fianna Fail (Blaney)
Independent Fianna Fail
Independent Fine Gael
Independent Health Alliance
Independent Labour
Independent Ratepayers
Independent Republican
Independent Socialist
Independent Unemployed Worker
Independent Youth
Irish Housewives Association
Irish Liberal Party
Irish Republican Socialist Party
Irish Socialist Network
Irish Solidarity Party
Irish Workers’ League
Labour
Labour Municipal Workers
League for a Workers Republic
Legion of Ex Servicemen
Libertas
Licensed Trade
Local Residents
Letterkenny Residents Party
Militant Labour
Monetary Reform Party
Muintir na hÉireann
Municipal Tennants
National Action
National Businessmen’s Association
National Corporate Party *
National Centre Party
National Labour Party
National League
National Legal Justice Action Group
National Party (1924)
National Party (Nora Bennis)
National Progressive Democrats
Natural Law Party
New Agenda**
New Island Party
New Vision
No Party Ticket
People Before Profit Alliance
Peoples Democracy
Peoples Party of Ireland
Poblacht Chríostúil
Political Organisation for Work
Planning Reform Party
Progressive
Progressive Democrats
Pro Life
Protectionist Farmer
Protestant Association
Ratepayers
Ratepayers Association
Republican Congress
Republican Labour
Republican Sinn Fein
Revolutionary Workers Party
Roscommon Hospital Action Committee
Salthill Citizens Organisation
Saor Éire*
Seniors Solidarity Party
Sinn Fein
Sinn Fein the Workers’ Party
Sligo/ Leitrim Independent Socialist Organisation
Socialist Labour Party
Socialist Party
Socialist Party of Ireland
Socialist Workers Party
South Kerry Independent Alliance
Tax Reform League
Town Tennants
Transport Union
Travellers Rights
Ulster Protestant
Unemployed
Unionist
United Citizens Party
United Left Alliance
Waterford Peoples Party
The Workers’ Party
Workers and Unemployed Action Group
Workers Union
Young Ireland
* Not sure if they contested elections
** Only contested Elections in the North under that name
*** Councillor in the Republic, have contested Local Elections in the North
The Irish Left: Quite a bit larger after 2011 but the questions remain the same as they ever were… January 4, 2012
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics, The Left.30 comments
Interesting article by Eoin Ó Broin at Irish Left Review, and is it out of order to wish that site a Happy New Year after another year of excellent articles?
I think it’s a good run down of the situation of the left, but something got me thinking. Ó Broin argues that:
The combined left vote broke the 40% barrier for the first time in general election history.
We’re getting there, but not quite yet. If we add up the LP/SF/SP/PBP/WUAG vote the total [19.5 LP, 9.9 SF, 1.2 SP, 1 PBP, .4 WUAG] comes to 32%. Thrown in a couple of percentage points for the Green Party, something I’d be loath to do, and we’re just barely topping 34%. There is of course that 12.1 per cent Independent vote, but even accepting that there are, as Ó Broin suggests, 7 or so Independents who can be termed ‘independent left’, though my experience of them is that there’s really a core of perhaps four or five who are clearly left of centre by a generally accepted yardstick whereas others albeit of the left can vote in unexpected, and sometimes not necessarily welcome ways, that would still not nudge us quite up to 40 per cent – if we argue that the 7 ‘independent left’ got, and this isn’t accurate but I’ve not the patience to go through the individual constituencies, half of the 12% of the Independents then we’re at most at 38% without the GP. And to be honest, having canvassed for Tony Gregory I’d be very dubious about ascribing the term ‘left’ to some of that vote. Of course that is true of all candidates of the left or otherwise. Support tends to be heterogenous with people from all points voting for candidates.
None of which is to undermine his argument – this was a good election for the left, arguably its best ever.
Indeed in How Ireland Voted 2011 (Ed. Michael Gallagher & Michael Marsh), an interesting and useful book for any curious about the election the late Peter Mair made the point that a partial electoral realignment may have taken place. He noted that throughout the 1990s and 2000s while the left was polling elsewhere in Europe ‘an average of 40 per cent of the vote (roughly 30 per cent for Social Democrats, 4 per cent for the present and former Communists and 7 per cent for New Left and Green parties)… in Ireland by contrast the respective figures were 20 per cent and 6 per cent – an underestimate to be sure, since it fails to count the support offered to many Independent candidates of the left, but one which still falls substantially below the average Western European polity. Even if we add SF to this total, the contrast remains very marked’.
And he continued:
In 2011, the balance changed. Labour almost doubled its support, and SF, promoting a strong anti-austerity programme, gained 3 per cent. When we add the gains of the small SP and PBP, the total gain is almost 14 per cent, taking the overall left (including SF, but excluding the GP on this occasion) to some 32 per cent of the vote, a level unrivalled in the postwar period and one that is now quite comparable to that in a number of other European countries.
But what to do with this 32 or 38 or even 40 per cent?
I’ve always thought there’s a real tension between left unity and left ability to capture votes. And the 2011 election captures this perfectly. A single unitary left of the Labour party and, say, a left of Labour party would, I suspect, have jointly done markedly worse in terms of electoral outcomes than the current fissiparous crew. Simply put they managed by offering so many different, but essentially credible, choices to voters to sweep up almost every last leftish inclined vote, and a fair few more.
But, the current fissiparous crew are clearly unable to work in tandem and by any reasonable analysis short of something entirely unforeseen never will. So we’re stuck then in a sense between two poles, one of cannot and one of will not. I don’t know if I actually blame anyone for this – the only blame I’d apportion is to those who don’t live up to their self-ascribed beliefs. In the broad strategic sweep left unity is chimerical because there are so many self-defined lefts competing for space.
How would those lefts, or some of them, work together? This is difficult to determine. The compromises already made with parties of the right are extremely problematic, not just and most importantly because of their direct effects but because of the political legacy they will leave. The configurations are difficult to see. Labour and Sinn Féin? The visceral hatred of some in the former for the latter is remarkable to me, but it endures – perhaps even strengthens as SF consolidates in numbers and percentages that are eminently respectable [and were equally so for the LP across much of its existence in the state]. The ULA formations either collectively or individually seem to sail beyond the very concept of alliance with parties to their right. While the left Independents, or some of them would, if an enthusiastic nation called upon them to work in government with SF or the LP, gladly oblige it seems unlikely and in fairness they’re already working on the ground with both SF and ULA on various campaigns. And…er… that’s more or less it. Granted I’m eliding potential government formation/coalition/alliance and campaigns, but not dissimilar tensions operate on both levels.
The conclusion of which is that for as long as this government survives then the status quo, barring unforeseeable pressures from defections or expulsions from the LP or unusual local or by-election results or something quite improbable on the international level [though we’ve seen a few of those events in recent times], remains extant until the next election. But, if the poll numbers hold up and there is a shifting of position within the left at an election – Sinn Féin supplanting Labour, the Independents returning in similar, or perhaps greater numbers, the ULA holding its own with perhaps some increases, the same problems will also exist in its aftermath. And as can be seen above, these problems are intrinsic to the formations and structure of the Irish left.
And the routes to partial state power will remain limited given that forces and formations will either be too small or not quite large enough to govern alone and will tend towards cooption by alliance with centre/centre right parties. I’m not sure I see a way out of this, but nor do I see the situation as uniformly bleak, simply having a left of this size after decades of near total marginalisation is in itself a huge step forward – and I’d be eager to hear others alternatives.
The War of Independence in the South: “Four glorious years” or squalid sectarian conflict? History Ireland Hedge School Wednesday, 11 January at 7.00pm January 4, 2012
Posted by WorldbyStorm in History, Uncategorized.10 comments
The War of Independence in the South: “Four glorious years” or squalid sectarian conflict?
History Ireland Hedge School Wednesday, 11 January at 7.00pm
National Library Kildare Street
All welcome No booking required
We’re delighted to host the next History Ireland hedge school event entitled The War of Independence: ‘four glorious years’ or squalid sectarian conflict? on Wednesday 11 January at 7.00pm.
The Four Glorious Years 1918-1921 was the title of Frank Gallagher’s (deputy director of the first Dáil’s Department of Publicity) account of the War of Independence. But how glorious were they? Recent scholarship, in particular the late Peter Hart’s on the war in West Cork, has cast it in a darker light with accusations of sectarianism and even ‘ethnic cleansing’ leveled against the IRA, which in turn has provoked a lively and sometimes vitriolic debate. The History Ireland Hedge School, with Tommy Graham Graham in the chair, has assembled scholars from a broad range of interpretations to bring this ongoing debate to a wider public.
Speakers: David Fitzpatrick (TCD), John M. Regan (University of Dundee), Eve Morrison (TCD) and John Borgonovo (UCC).
About the History Ireland Hedge School Series
Like their eighteenth-century predecessors, the hedge schools run by History Ireland are slightly subversive in nature – a unique combination of serious and playful round table discussions conducted by expert contributors, coupled with active participation by, and engagement with, a general audience. The idea behind the twenty-first-century version is that it too can be run ‘anywhere, any time and on any topic’. While not like an academic seminar in terms of its presentation style, it is like an academic seminar in terms of the discussion that takes place. All events are deliberately designed to be provocative, interactive and primarily driven by content.
