A different take on Global Warming
And now a different take on scientists! I recently gave the talk of my life (unless one of you organizes a successful campaign to get TED Talks to call) at the American Geophysical Union's (AGU) Fall Meeting--the largest conference of physical scientists in the world!
I took it as the opportunity to give a big ol' slap in the face to a crowd that I fear may very well be our last hope--the climate scientists themselves. The ridiculous string of hiccups, screwups, sh*t happenses, and travel drama would be tedious to describe (though not as tedious as enduring it), and resulted in a talk that was a little over the top. But it contains the message that three years of debate with Joe Average online have convinced me is perhaps our only chance left to pull our butts out of the increasingly dire threat (+4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2060 is the latest figure).
I'll do a neater job of posting all this later (my HD crashed during that fun fun spurt at AGU). But for now, the transcription of the speech can be found here.
--Greg Craven Dec. 22, 2010
And now back to our normal message. . . .
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Look. Anyway you look at the question of global warming, the stakes seem to be the whole world.
The skeptics promise global economic DOOM if we take hasty action on an unproven question. The activists warn of global climate DOOM if we don't take immediate action on an imminent threat. And the only way to know for sure who's right is to let the experiment play itself out.
Unfortunately, we're in the test tube. So there's got to be a better way to go about this besides shouting at each other.
I'm no expert, but as a high school science teacher, I am pretty familiar with how the lay person intersects (wc***) with science. So in an online video two years ago, I offered a suggestion for how to cut through the shouting match and draw your own conclusion in the debate, without needing to decide which side to believe. It centers on a simple little 2-by-2 "decision grid," and I asked for suggestions on how to improve it.
Two years later, "The Most Terrifying Video You'll Ever See" has collected over 7.5 million views, spawned 7 hours of follow-up videos, led to an offer of my own t.v. show (thanks, but no thanks), and ultimately resulted in a book. (Geez. I was just trying to offer a suggestion.)
I guess there must be something to that little grid.
And in the meantime, the stakes have only gotten higher. After the brush with the Next Great Depression in 2008, no one can deny that the economy is more delicate than ever before. Yet the updated science suggests that the global climate may be the same type of "non-linear" system that the global financial system is--capable of sudden, unexpected lurches set off by seemingly small bumps.
So with stakes like that, isn't it worth spending just a couple minutes looking at the issue in a new way? Why not watch the video now and see what you think of this approach?
Turns out, the reasoning in that video has a hole in it large enough to drive a Hummer through, which is what led to all the follow-up material.
I don't have all the answers. But together, we might. So if you are intrigued, share this video with others, and ask them what they think. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ
I believe that process--of proposing an idea and enlisting many people to find problems with it and suggest fixes--is the best way of getting closer to the truth. And so the basic idea in the video--trying to come up with a method for tackling a complex, uncertain problem when you have little expertise and even less time--has evolved as well. Way, way beyond the thinking presented in "The Most Terrifying Video." That evolution of an idea continues to this day.
That's why I ask you to sign up for the newsletter [link], so I can let you know of new developments, improved approaches, and additional thinking tools for tackling the most thorny question--of what (if anything) we should do about climate change--that humanity has ever faced.
In addition, I'll toss you fun little "gimmees" as I produce them, from a deal on the upcoming eBook (containing the material that didn't make it into the book), to the secrets of the explosions and puzzles in the "How It All Ends" videos [link], to updates on where the book and the videos (or even me, Greg Craven) are getting featured. Rest assured, I won't share your email address with anyone, and it will be easy to unsubscribe if you ever become discontented with my infrequent mailings.
If you're curious about the holes and the fixes that arose from my 2-year back-and-forth with the Internet community, then check out what came next. The "How It All Ends" video series resulted from several months of me combing through tens of thousands of online comments for every single objection, question, "How About," "Yeah, But," and "You Missed a Spot" that I could find to "The Most Terrifying Video." And the book, "What's the Worst That Could Happen? A Rational Response to the Climate Change Debate," went a step beyond that, enlisting the critiques of dozens of leading scientists, economists, authors, and analysts in the climate change debate. (I may not be right, but no one can say I'm not excruciatingly thorough.)
The videos are available online for free, or you can purchase them all on a single DVD [Buy Now], which also throws a few pennies my way. And if you decide to buy the book, then doing so through one of the links on this page [Buy Now] would help me tremendously, because I receive a small percentage of the order, with no difference in cost to you.
Whatever the outcome of all this, one thing is for certain. We are all in this together. There are no emergency exits to either the global economy, or the global climate. So let's enlist as many people as we can, to make the most solid decision we can. I hope you'll agree that we owe ourselves--and our kids--nothing less.
Thank you so much for taking the time to do that.
Sincerely,
Greg Craven
Corvallis, Oregon, USA
Greg Craven grew up on a farm in Oregon, experimented with different jobs for a decade, and finally found his calling as a high school physics and chemistry teacher. His main qualification for proposing a layman’s approach to climate change is having borrowed the 30 brains in his classroom every period to mull questions of science and critical thinking for the last ten years. He’s found there’s no better way to refine a thought than to toss it out in front of a roomful of critical teenagers is a bit surprised to find he’s written a book as a result. Craven lives in Corvallis, Oregon with his wife and two young daughters.
