Russia's presidential saga resolved as Duma election takes a familiar shape.

Last Saturday a lengthy political saga finally came to an end at United Russia’s conference in Moscow.  Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin announced that the latter will contest next year’s Russian Presidential election.  This resolves the “will he or won’t he” speculation about President Medvedev seeking a second term in office.

There will, of course, be many Russian liberals who see this decision as a fatal blow to Russia’s democracy.  There will also be a chorus of “we told you so”s from commentators hostile to the Kremlin who always maintained that Medvedev’s presidency was a sham.  

Their arguments have some force, but they’re very far from the full picture.  

The President has defended his decision to step aside and let Putin contest the election, observing that the Prime Minister is Russia’s “most authoritative” leader.  

The Russian public has consistently expressed its preference for Putin, ahead of Medvedev, where polls gave a choice between the two men.  Alexei Levinson, from the Levada Institute, runs through the figures on Open Democracy.

Another switch of positions between Medvedev and Putin hardly suggests flourishing political competition, but it is broadly reflective of the will of the Russian people.  Russia will end up with the President whom a majority wishes to fill the post. 

Earlier in the year I mentioned the thesis of Richard Sakwa’s book, The Crisis of Russian Democracy.  Sakwa argues that the competitive element in Russian politics is subsumed within the administrative system but he also maintains that the ‘constitutional’ aspect of Russian politics holds the worst excesses of the unelected ‘administrative regime’ in check.

He can’t be re-examining his theory with any undue concern this week.  The competitive element seems more than evident after the liberalising Finance Minister, Alexei Kudrin, was forced to step down, when he expressed unwillingness to serve under the new arrangements.  And the fact that Putin felt obliged to observe the letter of the Russian constitution, before launching his comeback, emphasises that proprieties hold some force.

Witness the Kremlin’s efforts, now in disarray, to establish the market-friendly party Right Cause as a contender in December’s State Duma elections.  Sakwa has a fascinating article in OD explaining how the leadership of billionaire, Mikhail Prokhorov, has fallen apart.

Only months ago Right Cause was being touted as a pro-Medvedev, liberal alternative to Putinite United Russia.  Now Prokhorov has been ousted, Right Cause is in a mess and Medvedev has stepped aside to give Putin a free run.

There is a justifiable degree of scepticism about the independence of the parties which can realistically challenge for seats in the State Duma; whether it’s Just Russia or even Zhirinovsky’s LDPR, but although United Russia is dominant, the party isn’t allowed to hold a monopoly of power and both Putin and Medvedev remain a step removed from it.   

That’s just another small reason why the “Putinism = the new Stalinism” editorials which graced many papers on Monday morning seem so hysterically shrill. 

So we move towards an election in December that will be viewed effectively as a plebiscite on the inverted Putin – Medvedev tandem which will surely follow the presidential contest in March.  It's all a little familiar, given the equivalent contest in 2007.    

You don't learn basic honesty at journalism school.

For months now the Johann Hari affair has gripped the political blogosphere.  The Independent columnist caused consternation when he was caught out embellishing some of his interviews with quotes taken from other sources. 

Now I don’t intend to make any contribution to the highly personalised debate which has taken place for and against Hari.  I didn’t particularly enjoy his columns, but neither did they send me into apoplectic rage.  The most I can say about his writing is that it was highly ideological and as such it had that precocious-but-angry adolescent feel to it.

His interviews, I must admit, I rarely bothered to read.  The Independent may take a great deal of pride in its ‘journalistic integrity’, but it’s by some distance the least read national quality newspaper and it is (let’s be honest) seriously dull. 

Its coverage of the UK regions is frankly shameful and the best that can be said about the re-modelled paper is that it’s dropped those intensely irritating ‘issue’ front pages, which had a minimum of text and a big picture illustrating the ‘outrage’ of the day.

I did buy the Independent yesterday though and I  read Hari’s ‘personal apology’.  It was highly unconvincing.

The columnist is promising to take a four month course in journalism, after which he intends to continue working at the Independent.  He assures his readers that any future articles will be published online with accompanying foot-notes and, where interviews have taken place, video evidence of their content.

Now, I know that Hari must attract readers to the Independent, but for goodness sake, give it up!  

Who on earth wants to read a journalist who is so discredited that he has to jump through hoops before anyone can believe a word that he’s written?  "Interesting interview, but I’d better boot up the old computer and double-check that it actually took place"!

Imagine if a cowboy handy-man caused litres of brown sludge to swamp your bathroom; would you employ him six months later if he pledged to undertake a plumbing night-class?

The preposterous conceit here is that Hari didn't quite fully realise that he was doing something wrong, because he’d been fast-tracked through the world of journalism and hadn’t received the necessary basic training.  As someone who isn’t a trained journalist, but who has tried, for a spell, to make a living writing in newspapers and magazines, I resent that analysis.

Hari is accused of plagiarism. 

He went to Cambridge for goodness sake.  Is anyone seriously suggesting that no-one ever walked him through a few basic lessons in not copying huge chunks of other people’s work and claiming it as his own?  That’s one of the first things that any university drills into its students nowadays.  It’s even a major theme in schools.

I’m not for a moment suggesting that anyone can walk into a newspaper and do the job of a seasoned reporter.  But honesty - basic intellectual honesty - in writing, that’s not something that can be picked up at journalism school. 

Since time immemorial writers have taken different paths into journalism.  But if you’re currently thinking of making money by penning articles professionally and you haven’t come up through the traditional route, working for a local paper, whether your background is academia, politics or even blogging, your prospects have just got that bit bleaker.

And you have Johann Hari to thank.  

Boundary changes in Northern Ireland

If you're one of the chosen few pouring over details of the boundary commission's proposed changes to the electoral map in Northern Ireland, this map will prove useful.  We're set to lose 2 out of our current 18 Westminster constituencies and these are the commission's plans to change the boundaries.

The possible electoral ramifications will keep pundits busy over the coming weeks and months, but a few weird and wonderful geographical / local identity issues will also keep debate boiling.

For instance it's intriguing that the new mid-Antrim constituency will snake out from the coast to encompass Ballymena, as well the East Antrim locale of Larne and Carrickfergus.  Indeed Ballymena town will be separated from outlying villages like Cullybackey and Broughshane, which are part of Ballymena council and undoutbedly part of the same area.

No doubt there will be similar issues elsewhere.  Intriguing.  

Guest Post: Rugby, thuggery, and the judge

A guest post by itwassammymcnallywhatdoneit


Rugby, thuggery, and the judge

Manu Tuilagi is an outstanding rugby player and at 20, he is the youngest of six professional rugby playing brothers.

His 5 older brothers have all represented Samoa, but Manu, having arrived from Samoa at the age of 13, declared for the England senior team having played through the National age grade structures. Season 2010-11 was Manu’s first season in the Aviva Premiership and he almost immediately showed his potential, not only as an outstanding prospect for his club Leicester, but also as a future England international.

In boxing parlance, he weighs in at 17.5 stone and stands 6.1 tall (reach undeclared) and as he proved on the 14th May, when lining out for Leicester against Northampton, in the Aviva Premiership semi-final, he packs a hell of punch.

His Tysonseque attack (shown here about 30 seconds in) on England’s winger Chris Ashton, would have been worthy of Iron Mike himself and resulted in both players being sin-binned. After the game, which was a knockout blow, not only for Ashton but also for Northampton’s Premiership interest, a clearly angry Northampton coach, Jim Mallinder, whilst acknowledging that Ashton had pushed Tuilagi, reasonably complained that “you cannot react with three punches to the head without a red.”

In the fallout from the affair, Jon Sleighthome (ex England and Northampton), observed in the Northampton Chronicle and Echo, the following Tuesday - “I am sure that the citing officer, and the disciplinary panel will make an example of Manu, and the outside chance that he had of being in England’s World Cup squad were extinguished in a blow.” But although Sleighthome’s prediction did seem like a reasonable one, with Tuilagi indeed being cited and the incident being categorised as a “top level entry offence”, he hadn’t reckoned with the RFU disciplinary committee, headed up by His Honour Judge Jeff Blackett.

Blackett commented that “the top-end range is eight to 52 weeks and we determined that the appropriate entry point within that range is 10 weeks." And having gone for the lower end of the range the committee then decided that the 10 weeks should be “reduced by 50% to reflect Manu's youth and inexperience, his admission of guilt and his genuine remorse."

As the English rugby blog Blood and Mud  commented “He's 20, not 12 so youth is no mitigation. On the 'Admission of guilt'; he was recorded on TV from two angles punching the shite out of someone, how exactly could he plead not-guilty? Then we have 'Genuine remorse'; where he's basically being rewarded for not saying "I'm glad I smacked the bastard and I'd happily do it again".

The convenient leniency shown by the RFU for such outright thuggery not only reflects very poorly on English rugby in particular - with their National team’s pedestrian midfield now bolstered by the dynamic Tuilagi at the World cup - but also reflects very badly on the image of rugby in general. …and for those of us, who like to complacently lecture football (soccer) supporters on what they can learn from Rugby what this tawdry episode and others (such as the Bloodgate affair also featuring Judge Blackett) reminds us of, is that there are far more serious matters than falling over in the penalty area and arguing with referees which are rather more deserving of our attention.

Four points or bust for Northern Ireland in next two games

Another Northern Ireland match is looming.  Last time the team took an early lead against the Faroe Islands, before falling into the old pattern of slow sideways passing.  Luckily the introduction of Niall McGinn, early in the second half, revitalised the line-up and Steven Davis notched up a second from long range, before Pat McCourt decided to take the Islanders apart twice with his mesmerising ball skills.

This time the opposition is a sight stiffer.  Mind you, over at The Social Club, Jonathan Wilson notes that the Serb manager, Vladimir Petrovic, has indicated that he would be happy to return from Belfast with a draw. 

It is therefore likely that the Serbs, with a number of players missing, will set up defensively against Northern Ireland.  Nigel Worthington is also an innately cautious manager and it looks probable that McCourt and Kyle Lafferty, both of whom are reportedly suffering from calf-strains, will be missing,   It's therefore shaping up to be a turgid encounter.  Think about the Italy game, where both sides were happy to sit in front of each other’s defences.

Theoretically a draw would keep Northern Ireland in the hunt, with all eyes then turning to Tallinn, where we play Estonia on Tuesday.  My feeling is that a win is needed, because it is by no means likely that we will take three points in an away game against reasonably credible opposition.  Estonia have already beaten Serbia during this campaign.

Without a shadow of doubt, two draws will leave too much to do.

It's not that supporters ought to expect Northern Ireland to qualify, but they do have a right to expect the team and the coach to give it their best go.  Unless there is a properly committed performance on Friday night and unless there is a clear will to win, as distinct from a will not to lose, then calls for another manager to be given a chance in the next campaign will grow louder. 

Transparency on Spads

My column from News Letter 25 August 2011.

SPECIAL advisers, or Spads as they’re generally known, are a rather unique type of civil servant. Appointed directly by ministers, they aren’t required to go through a competitive recruitment process and their role is openly political.

Spads do operate within certain limits; for instance they can’t get involved in campaigning during elections, but they’re bound by no requirements of impartiality. There’s nothing wrong with that per se, but it means that, effectively, the taxpayer foots the bill so that ministers can receive highly political advice.

Obviously such an arrangement should carry with it some pretty strict responsibilities, because while parties and ministers pick Spads, it’s the public that pays for them. At Stormont, though, the special adviser role seems be shrouded in secrecy and recently it has attracted one controversy after another.

There was widespread revulsion earlier this year when Sinn Féin culture minister, Caral Ni Chuilin, chose a convicted killer, Mary McArdle, to be her Spad. Quite understandably the family of Mary Travers felt the appointment was an unacceptable insult to their loved one’s memory.

The public has a right to expect that only people of good character and standing should be given special advisers’ posts, which come with a healthy salary.

In the instance of Mary McArdle, it’s pretty clear that that precept wasn’t kept to. The appointment was a hurtful and unnecessary reminder of a terrible crime and it seemed, to many people, like a reward for an act of violence.

Where public tax money is used we also have a right to expect it to be spent as sensibly and efficiently as possible, but in the case of special advisers at Stormont, prudence doesn’t seem to be a major consideration.

The First and Deputy First Ministers’ Office alone has eight special advisers, with the 11 remaining departments boasting one each. By comparison, Owen Paterson, a member of the UK cabinet, has a single Spad and Alex Salmond, the First Minister in Scotland, makes do with one part time adviser.

Recently the News Letter reported that the maximum salary for Spads in Northern Ireland would rise to £90,000 a year. That is substantially higher than the wages of all but a handful of special advisers to the Westminster administration, which governs over 60 million people.

If you tot up the figures, Spads at Stormont could be costing us approaching £7 million over the lifetime of an Assembly. In fact, we can’t know the total cost to the public purse because their salaries are kept secret!

In contrast, when David Cameron became prime minister, his government published a complete list of its special advisers, including exact details of their pay grades and salaries. That’s a healthy attitude to transparency, but it’s also simply what the public deserves. Unfortunately, in Northern Ireland, the executive is falling far short of these standards.

There really isn’t any excuse for this lack of openness. The Stormont executive has got to catch up with Westminster and provide a full list of special advisers and their salaries. This is basic information which we all have a right to know.

We also need to ask whether it is really necessary for Northern Ireland to have 19 Spads when Scotland, a country with a population three times as large, can make do with 11.

Where taxpayers’ money is being spent, secrecy is no longer acceptable. The new government at Westminster has breathed a new spirit of openness and accountability through public life. People in Northern Ireland deserve the same approach at Stormont

Guest post: What does a vote for Sinn Féin really mean?

The following is a thought-provoking guest post by itwassammymcnallywhatdoneit.  It's interesting because it rather flies in the face of the usual nationalist analysis: i.e. that a vote for Sinn Féin does not necessarily imply any degree of approval for the IRA's campaign of violence.  


By itwassammymcnallywhatdoneit


Berty Ahern,  famously opined that SF and the Provos “are two sides of the same coin”. 

Now, if we leave aside the boul Berty’s general tendency to get things wrong (especially when he was Taoiséach) and if we also leave aside the amusing protestations of President Adams that he has never heard of the IRA (or whatever it is Gerry likes to tell us from time to time) and assume that on this one at least, Bertram is on the money, then what does that tell us about the majority of the Northern Nationalist electorate who vote for SF?

Well, it surely tells us, that Northern Nationalists have, at the least, an ambivalent attitude to the Provo’s campaign of violence. It surely also tells us, that Northern Nationalists view the Provo campaign as having been more inspired by politics than criminality - and that however unpleasant and unfortunate some of it may have been,  those who organised it (and according to Berty that would be the current SF leadership), are now fully deserving of the rewards of political office.

It is not as if the Nationalist electorate have no choice. The decline of the SDLP began when John Hume (probably the most popular Nationalist politician since the 1930s in either part of the island) was still at the helm and that decline has continued with the SDLP’s two remaining redoubts, South Down and Derry coming under increasing electoral siege.   

No one in the SDLP has ever fired a shot, or set off a bomb, or organised any such activities, and yet, having stood their political ground and supplied in John Hume the political architect of the current settlement, not just between Orange and Green, but also between Ireland and Britain, they nevertheless find themselves losing out to SF - who are now claiming the SDLP’s political ground as their very own.

Nationalists, it would therefore seem, don’t not vote for the SDLP because, as it is sometimes claimed, they don’t cut the political mustard, but rather because most Nationalists prefer to vote for a party, who (according to Berty) did either fire guns and set off bombs or organised such activities.

Northern Nationalists now accept the legitimacy of the northern political arrangements but their current voting habits suggest they also accept the legitimacy of a Provo campaign of violence that helped destroy the previous political arrangements.

Such views on the legitimacy of the Provo campaign are not of course shared by Unionists, but Unionists do generally share Berty’s view of the relationship between SF  and violence, as reflected in the continued use of the term ‘SF-IRA’ and the occasionally less than diplomatic outbursts such as the ‘SF scum’ remarks by UUP Leader Tom Elliott.

Perhaps, it is with deference to Unionism’s sensitivities, or perhaps because of the proverbial ‘Catholic’ guilt, that when Nationalists are opinion-polled the level of SF support is generally under recorded.  But, when it comes to the polls that really matter, Nationalists clearly prefer to vote for those who (according to Berty), have a violent past.

…and however politically uncomfortable it may be to admit this in a society still scarred and divided by decades of violence and still striving to come to terms with that past - let’s not pretend otherwise.

Operation 'Certain Death'

It's nearly six months late, but here's my take on Northern Ireland's rather bizarre trip to Serbia.  It's an early, diary style draft of an article which appeared in Four Four Two magazine.

They’ve become known simply as ‘The 200’.  A group of Northern Ireland fans determined to defy security warnings and a UEFA edict in order to attend their country’s Euro 2012 qualifier in Serbia. 

It’s 1.15pm on Friday 25^th March and FourFourTwo dashes across Budapest airport on a mission to join these steely souls.  I reach the gate just as it closes and collapse in a sweaty, panting heap on the connecting flight.  Next stop Belgrade - home of the most feared football hooligans in Europe.

Violence at Serbia’s last qualifying match in Italy led UEFA to rule that the game against Northern Ireland at Red Star’s ’Marakana’ Stadium should take place behind closed doors.  After protests from the Irish Football Association (IFA) the authorities grudgingly agreed to admit travelling fans who booked their trips prior to the ruling.  

There is speculation in the Northern Irish press that Serb Ultras aren’t happy and intend to wreak revenge on visiting supporters.  FFT peaks out the aircraft window and sips a drink.  Let Operation ‘Certain Death’ begin!

Friday 25^th March, 4.15 pm:

Three hours later and the pace has slackened, with FFT’s taxi stuck in Belgrade Friday afternoon gridlock.  “There is a problem”, explains the driver, “you bombed our bridges”.  The passengers protest their innocence.  “Nato destroyed the bridges”, the Serb admonishes, “now the traffic is bad“. 

Just twelve years ago Serbia was bombarded from the air by the west.  Our visit coincides with the anniversary of Nato’s intervention in the Kosovo War.  No wonder some Serbs are a little touchy!  We decide it’s quicker to walk.

We’re en route to the Intercontinental Hotel, headquarters for the Northern Ireland squad and IFA officials.  There we will be given match tickets and hush-hush details of a pre-game meeting point.  Serbian police will ensure our safety before a convoy of buses leaves for the ground. 

An atmosphere of caution and secrecy has shrouded all the arrangements for this match.  In October Northern Ireland fans’ travel plans were plunged into chaos after hooligans rioted in Genoa and UEFA handed Serbia a supporters’ ban for its next qualifier.  The IFA sought refunds for fans who had already shelled out money, but it quickly became apparent that many of the ‘Green and White Army’ intended to travel to Belgrade anyway.  The Association and supporters’ representatives changed tack and lobbied UEFA to reverse Serbia‘s punishment. 

          

Eventually the authorities decided that a small number of Northern Ireland fans could attend the game after all, but Serbs would still be locked out.  It was a reluctant concession. UEFA even offered free tickets to the Europa League final in Dublin, to tempt potential travellers not to make the trip. Northern Ireland supporters are made from sterner stuff than that.  The vast majority chose to stick with their original plans and two months later they’re forming an orderly queue for tickets.  They number just over 240, with UEFA revising its estimate of 200 upwards to accommodate all but a small handful who booked after the deadline.   

Kristijan has travelled from Macedonia to meet supporters from the internet forum ’Our Wee Country’ (OWC).  He explains that the notorious Serb warlord Arkan was gunned down right here in the Intercontinental’s lobby, back in 2000.  The Red Star fanatic recruited many members of his Tigers paramilitary group from among the club‘s hooligan element.  They subsequently became notorious for their brutality during the war in Bosnia. 

A sobering thought and another reminder of Serbia’s troubled recent history.

5.30pm:

Back in central Belgrade things are relaxed.  Most Northern Ireland supporters ignore warnings to keep their colours hidden.  This isn’t a typical away trip though.  The Green and White Army likes to gather en masse in a city centre square to drink and meet locals, but today small groups hurry to bars and keep things low key.

  

FFT joins one set of supporters in Bar Red on Skadarlija, a Bohemian street in the heart of old Belgrade.  Two policemen sit inside watchfully, resisting fans’ attempts to buy them beer.  It seems to be an unnecessary precaution, because the Northern Ireland contingent are getting on famously with locals.   A TV crew stops to interview travelling fans and ply them with slivovitz, the local plum brandy.  They film Gordon McKeown from Portadown downing a shot and turning an alarming shade of purple.  “It’s an interesting mix of flavours”, he concludes diplomatically.

We chat to a group of Montenegrin Serbs who describe themselves as ‘Ultras’.  They’re miffed to be locked out of the game but they take our banter in good part.  A drunk guy at the bar is going to attend.  He describes himself as a journalist and pulls out a sheaf of press passes.  “Are you working?” asks an incredulous FFT.  Apparently so.  That’s one match report which should be worth reading!

7pm:

Supporters in University Square board a fleet of buses.  Access is strictly ticket only and a burly security guard frisks passengers for bottles or cans.  For an hour or so fans have gathered in the square, mingling with early evening commuters and surrounded by heavily armed police. 

The convoy jolts into motion, flanked by motorcycle outriders with sirens wailing.  Each junction is manned by traffic policemen to ensure that there are no delays.  An occasional passer-by waves or makes a thumbs down gesture but it’s hardly ’welcome to hell’ stuff.

FFT asks Marty Lowry, owner of the OWC forum, about his experience in Belgrade so far.  “It’s been great”, he confirms, “everyone’s been exceptionally friendly, though the local supporters like to tell some hair-raising tales”.

“We visited the two main club grounds yesterday, which are less than a mile apart.  We bought some souvenirs at the Red Star shop and the staff warned us to keep our bags well hidden if we were walking anywhere near Partizan.”

The ‘Eternal Derby’ between Red Star and Partizan Belgrade is one of the most fiercely contested in world football.  Marty clutches a bunch of white tulips in an obscure tribute to Partizan.  FFT doesn’t accept the offer of a flower to carry into the Red Star Stadium!

Our bus pulls up outside the ground amid a media scrum.  Disembarking Northern Ireland supporters are met by rows of armed police in body armour and, with every conceivable access route closely guarded, there are more officers than spectators.  There isn’t a Serb fan in sight and photographers scramble to snap partying supporters beside frowning policemen.  For riot police these guys are pretty tolerant though and they don‘t complain as 240 fans crowd round to jostle for photographs.  A familiar face, Gerry Armstrong, hero of Northern Ireland’s 1982 World Cup squad, looks on with bewilderment.

8.15pm:

The last few supporters pass through security after a long and occasionally ill-tempered wait.  The novelty of the searches has long since worn off and a UEFA delegate chivvies the stewards along. A rigorous frisk is followed by a once over with a metal detector.  Supporters ditch little mounds of coins which are eagerly snapped up by some Serb children who have slipped through the ranks of policemen. 

Inside the Marakana Stadium FFT takes in a surreal scene.  The Northern Ireland contingent is housed in Red Star’s VIP section, a phenomenal distance from the pitch.  Green and White foot-soldiers lounge in enormous, cinema style chairs facing a row of security guards.  The rest of the 53,000 seat arena is empty - save for a packed press gallery (just imagine how it might look whenever West Ham moves to the Olympic Stadium).   

Northern Ireland supporters have a boisterous reputation and as kick off approaches they do their best to create an atmosphere.  In this cavernous stadium, though, it feels like their chants simply drift off into the chilly Belgrade night.

When the teams line up and Northern Ireland’s anthem is played over the PA there is a palpable sense of relief.  Early arrivals witnessed a rehearsal where the Republic of Ireland’s anthem was played instead!      

9.10pm

Mayhem in the VIP section as Gareth McAuley connects with Chris Brunt’s free kick to head the opening goal.  It’s Northern Ireland’s first first-half strike in two years and the fans are almost in raptures again when Kyle Lafferty squanders a glorious opportunity to nick a second. 

Munching a choc ice in the bar at half-time, Richard Oliver from Ballymena is apprehensive, despite the score-line.  “Knowing Nigel Worthington (the Northern Ireland manager) he’ll try to shut up shop.  There’s a long 45 minutes ahead”, he warns FFT.  It’s a prophetic analysis.  The fans become frustrated after the interval, as Northern Ireland drop deeper and deeper.  “Attack, attack, attack!”, becomes the most frequent chant, replacing, “shall we sing a song for you”, and, “big ground, no fans”.

When the equaliser finally comes, the press gallery, which tonight contains more than 100 “accredited journalists“, explodes with delight.  The Serbs’ second is inevitable and it’s greeted with delirium by a small group of bus drivers in our section.  The Green and White Army belt out “2-1 and you still don’t sing”, but on this occasion there is a riposte.  “Serbia! Serbia!”, ventures a lone driver.   

Usually stoical in defeat the Northern Ireland supporters feel that Worthington’s negative tactics are to blame.  Kenny Armstrong from Ballymena asks why Celtic’s “Derry Pele” Pat McCourt is not introduced.  “The game’s crying out for his creativity”.

The match limps to a close and Northern Ireland are beaten 2-1.  Dejected fans muster a final roar for their heroes who respond with applause.  The Serb team also comes over to wave and receive an ovation from Northern Ireland supporters.  It’s a nice touch.

In normal circumstances there would be a lengthy wait for home fans to vacate the stadium but tonight it’s straight back unto the buses for another police escort.  The streets are quiet, without any sign of celebrating Serb fans.  Back at Bar Red, though, our Montenegrin friends are triumphant. “Even without any fans, Serbia wins.  UEFA will be disappointed - they punish our supporters, but we win anyway“.  They feel that their team has prevailed, despite an unfair disadvantage.  

 

Saturday 27^th March, 11am:

At Republic Square, in Belgrade City Centre, FFT contemplates the previous day with fellow Northern Ireland fans. 

After all the horror stories, Serbia has confounded expectations.  There’s disappointment about the result but overwhelmingly everyone’s impressions are positive.  The principal regret is that home fans weren’t there to complete a memorable experience.  “Can you imagine 50,000 Serbs in that stadium”, enthuses Gavin Nixon from Belfast, “the atmosphere would be incredible”.

Last night green and white were the prevalent colours but this morning it’s just green.  A small group protests against Nato’s action in Libya, waving posters of Muammar Gadaffi, who provided aid to Serbia after it was bombed in the late 1990s. They’re particularly keen to hand out green Libyan flags to tourists.  It’s a fitting image.  Belgrade has proved welcoming, exciting and, contrary to its reputation, surprisingly beautiful, but history and politics are never far away. 

A guide arrives to conduct a walking tour featuring bomb damaged buildings and murals which are guarded night and day by Partizan Ultras.  Belgrade’s attractions are never conventional!  Members of the Green and White Army shuffle along behind, nursing hangovers, but hoping to visit Serbia again sooner rather than later.

Guest post: The other football world cup

The following is a guest post from itwassammymcnallywhatdoneit, who well be well known among Slugger readers.  Thanks to Sammy for a great pre competition analysis.  Coincidentally I'm off to Dublin on Saturday to see the Irish team prepare for the competition with another match against France. 

On the 9^th September the Rugby football world cup kicks off and for a sizeable minority on the island of Ireland this will be the major sporting event of this year – if not the last four.

Ireland, share group C with Australia, Italy, Russia and the USA and if the form book proves reliable, we will qualify as runner-ups to Australia and exit at the quarter final stage to South Africa. Rugby, doesn’t tend to do surprises and the winners, on home soil, are likely to be New Zealand, the strong bookies favourites at 8/15.

Four years ago in France, Ireland were tipped as the dark horses (and with some encouragement from the Irish camp) and then immediately set about proving wrong, those who had mistakenly placed their faith in them - almost losing to Rumania(a team largely comprised of converted Greco-Roman wrestlers) and getting thumped by France and Argentina.  

The rebranding of the proverbial underdogs clearly backfired.

So any optimism about Ireland’s fortunes will have to be kept very quiet and tempered by the knowledge that  if the players get wind of such musings they will no doubt set about falling apart all over again.

So there should be absolutely no talk at all of Ireland’s grand slam win 2 years ago, the fact that we thrashed England(world cup winners and twice finalists) in the final game of this year’s 6 Nations, have a half dozen world class players in O’Driscoll, O’Connell, Ferris, Heaslip, Bowe and O’Brien and that Irish Provincial teams have won the Heineken Cup in 4 of the last 6 years.

And there should certainly not be any discussion of the possibility that if we did beat the very talented but very inconsistent Australians that there would most likely be no further Southern Hemisphere opposition until the final.

No, arguably the most talented Irish rugby team of all time need to keep their heads down, their feet firmly on the ground and with their underdog tag securely in place head off to do battle -  and maybe, just maybe, they will surprise us.

Gwan Ireland.

Democratic Unionist Party are on moderate ground ...... in Sudan

I've been reading The State of Africa: A History of Fifty Years of Independence, after a trip to the Gambia earlier this summer and I was rather startled to discover, in a chapter about Sudan, that the blighted East African country has its very own Democratic Unionist Party.

No doubt the knowledgeable readers of Three Thousand Versts (if any still remain) will be way ahead of the curve on this fact, but it came as a revelation to me.

Now Sudan is not renowned for its history of religious tolerance.  Indeed it provided sanctuary for Bin Laden in the 1990s and it was widely regarded at the time as the country in the world with least religious freedom.

Even back then the Democratic Unionist Party in Sudan campaigned for pluralism and state neutrality as regards religion.  Get your heads around that Northern Irish readers!

Here we go again. Group F and Brazil 2014.

It may have seemed a little premature, given that the race to reach the Euro 2012 finals in Poland and Ukraine is far from resolved, but on Saturday evening FIFA conducted the preliminary draw for the World Cup in 2014.  The tournament will take place in Brazil and Northern Ireland supporters now know the hurdles which their team will face if it is to defy the odds and make it to Rio.

Predictably it’s not going to be easy.

First out of the pot in Group F was little Luxembourg.  In theory the lowest ranked team needs to offer up a simple 6 points, if we have any aspirations of qualifying.  Mind you we saw how that can easily go awry in the Faroe Islands last autumn.  Luxembourg is not the worst side in European football by a long stretch, that title’s reserved for San Marino, and they form exactly the type of stumbling block which Northern Ireland has traditionally failed to avoid.

The 5^th seed in our group is Azerbaijan.  In the 2006 qualifying tournament we took 4 points out of our 2 games against the Azeris.  A scoreless draw in Baku was disappointing, but the 2-0 win at Windsor Park set Northern Ireland up for an astonishing victory against England the following Wednesday.  It could’ve been very different though, with Stuart Elliott’s opener coming well into the 2^nd half.

 

Can we get 12 points from our games against these teams?  In theory there is no reason why not.  Mind you historically we’ve had problems achieving that sort of consistency.  I’d imagine 10 points out of 12 would be considered a satisfactory return.

Then we get into the teams ranked above us.

Israel sits third in their Euro 2012 qualifying group.  Although it’s fair to say that their group isn’t as strong as Northern Ireland’s.  Still, the Israelis will fancy their chances at Windsor Park. They can claim a number of stars who play in England or Spain, but other than Chelsea’s Yossi Benayoun they are not household names.  Really we ought at least to be fighting it out with Israel for 3^rd place.

To manage one of the top two spots will be desperately difficult.  The form book suggests that they should go to Russia and Portugal.

I’m delighted that we’ve drawn Russia, as it should provide an opportunity to visit the country again, but they are an extremely strong side and will be desperate to reach the World Cup in Brazil, as a prelude to their own turn as hosts in 2018.  Although another big name gets far more attention, for my money the Russian captain, Arshavin, is the best player Northern Ireland are likely to face in this qualification campaign.  The Arsenal man is enormously talented and creative.  He tends to play just behind Tottenham’s Roman Pavlyuchenko and between them they comprise a formidable goal threat.

Portugal of course are no slouches either.  They currently top their group in the Euros, albeit that they’ve shown they aren’t immune to the odd hiccup.  A 4-4 draw against Cyprus and a 1-0 defeat against an aging Norway team will give Northern Ireland some hope.  Mind you the Portuguese squad is a roll call of famous names from some of the biggest leagues in Europe.  And they have a forward who plays for Real Madrid who has a decent reputation.

So a difficult group, but as I commented on Facebook on Saturday night, they’re all difficult for Northern Ireland.  It contains no team which, on a good night, we cannot beat - particularly at Windsor Park.  We've avoided some of the very best and we've avoided sides whose lowly ranking belies their actual ability.

It would be nice if, by next year when the matches will start, the management is in place to really give it a good go.  

Celebrate Darren's achievement and forget the preaching

Given that this blog has in the past celebrated the achievements of Rory McIlroy, Graeme McDowell, the European Ryder Cup team and Padraig Harrington it’s shockingly remiss that I’ve not yet managed a post about Darren Clarke. 

The big Dungannon man’s Open triumph was the pick of the bunch when it came to defying the odds.  At 42 most experts had written off his prospects of picking up a major title.

Last night, though, the BBC got to screen its now traditional documentary, charting the home-coming of yet another major champion.  It was a bit of a tear-jerker, capturing emotional scenes as Darren brought the claret jug back to his family in Portrush and to his two sons.

Now Clarke is a nice guy, but he’s not one of the generation of non-descript, clean-cut, identikit sports stars.  The documentary captured an awful lot of drinking, alongside the formal celebrations and (let’s be honest) a little on screen inebriation.  Some pompous asses have chosen to focus on this and describe Darren as a “bad example”.

I’d prefer to highlight the years of dedication that it took to hone his skills, the affable, down to earth personality which ensures that Clarke has time for all his fans and the manifestly warm and loving relationship that he has with his sons.  All these factors seem a darn sight more important in the scale of things than his fondness for a pint of Guinness or a fag after he’s finished the front 9.

One of the great things about golf is that you don’t need to be a super-fit gym monkey to compete at the highest level (although actually it can help).  Is it therefore a coincidence that it’s one of the few sports which still boasts a fair smattering of larger than life personalities?

There’s John Daly with his ridiculous trousers and rust-belt mullet, Miguel Angel Jimenez with his mighty gut, advertising an appreciation for the finer things in life and Ian Poulter with his flamboyant dress sense and heart on sleeve tweeting.  People certainly love Darren because he’s come through adversity to achieve his dream, but they also love him because they can identify with him and imagine sharing one or two of those Guinnesses he enjoys so much.

Truth is, before he captured that revered piece of silverware last week most of his critics wouldn’t have known the difference had his habit been to smoke a six foot tall hookah coming up the 18^th green, nor would they have cared. 

A great, down-to-earth, warm Ulsterman has just won the most prestigious golf tournament in the world.  Let’s just enjoy it with him and stop being so judgemental.