People may have to starve! 86 years on the same old track.

'People may have to die in this country and may have to die through starvation.'
Cumann Na nGaedheal Minister for Industry and Commerce, Patrick McGilligan 1924

Tweedledum and Tweedledee

70 years ago.

A quote from an enjoyable post in the Dublin Opinion blog clearly showing how the southern state existed from an early day to protect the interests of a well heeled few who could peddle influence. How different, in mindset, is that McGilligan quote above to the words of Brian Lenihan snr. saying the underpopulated south could not support us all. How different to the deeds of Brian Lenihan jr. who has raised levies, taxes and cut services while bending backwards to protect the interests of failed developers and failed bankers.

The same bankers who are now relying on captial infusions taxed, levied and promised against ordinary Irish people. Which institutions are now the self same banks jacking up the interest rates on mortgage rates

A month or two ago  Sinn Fein spokesperson on Workers Rights Martin Ferris in a speech on the Social Welfare bill pointed up the  Government hypocrisy in how it treats people on social welfare and those who through property and financial speculation were largely responsible for the current economic mess.

Martin said:

“The current policy of attacking those on low wages and social welfare is not just a short sighted policy, it is an anti social one. It is also one that I suggest would not have gone down well with earlier Fianna Fáil cabinets who were attacked not for cutting social welfare payments and programmes but for increasing them. And they were attacked by the very same sort of people whose interests Fianna Fail now seems to have adopted as its priority.

“These were the people who in the 1930s were claiming that they couldn’t afford to take their money out of the London banks and stock exchange and invest it here because the tenement dwellers of Ireland would have no incentive to work for buttons if they were given outrageous luxuries like proper housing, schools, hospitals and so on.

“We are hearing the very same arguments now from people who are of the opinion that the only way to get the economy working again is to force people to work for a few hundred Euro a week and as part of that to reduce social welfare far below what it is now.

“In theory that may make sense but it overlooks a few important facts. Chief among them is that much of the growth during the Celtic Tiger was in highly skilled and well paid employment and of course a large proportion of that came from overseas investment in technology and other sectors. The economy did not grow on the basis of employing demoralised brow beaten poorly educated people on low wages, as IBEC and ISME and their cheerleaders in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would have us believe.

“Indeed the greatest contribution of some of our own native entrepreneurs was to piggyback on the genuine growth in the economy by charging us exorbitant amounts for everything from mortgages to rents to pints of lager and paninis. And being careful at the same time to ensure that they paid as little tax or wages as possible. And these are the patriots whose bacon that the so-called republican party is proposing to save by imposing a massive drop in living standards on the decent people of this country, whose only crime was to work when there was work and suffer the indignity of unemployment when the work was gone.”

I think he hit the nail on the head.  Cumann Na nGaedheal, Fianna Fail, Fine Fail, Fianna Gael. 86 years is enough of that lot.

Shouting Stop - the return of emigration.

Over 5,000 people a month are now choosing to emigrate from Ireland every month. Just like in the 80s communities are being drained of their lifeblood and their futures threatened by emigration. The death of rural Ireland was a consistent theme for years. We all thought this era had ended with the advent of the Celtic Tiger but we didnt figure on Fianna Fail and developers gambling with the future of Irish communities and losing.

An example of the destructive return of emigration is the village of Gneeveguilla in County Kerry. Gneeveguilla is well known for its Athletics club which epitomised the spirit of Irish communities - a communal spirit, a volunteer ethos, a sense of local pride.

Another expression of that local spirit is naturally the local GAA club. Gneeveguilla is a small village and emigration can quickly make its mark. The BBC noted that the local GAA club is being particulary hard hit by emigration (and isn't it typical that we must rely on foreign media to bring such a story to our attention rather than having RTE report on it. State broadcaster? yeah right!)

Emigration has made such an impact that the local GAA chairman is worried about the team’s collapse because so many players are likely to have eimgrated in the near future.

The collapse of the Irish construction industry hit rural Ireland especially hard. As economist Ronan Lyons demonstrated construction of new housing was particularly feverish in the west. Voters in Kerry and elsewhere would do well to remember that the reason their sons and daughters are emigrating is because the Govt. singularly failed to build a sustainable economy. All the way up the west coast in Donegal they will face the exact same problem. While the govt. dallies over the Donegal By Election the rate of unemployment for males under 25 in Donegal is estimated at up to 75% making Donegal a youth unemployment blackspot.

The Economic and Social Research Institute estimated that 120,000 will have emigrated in 2010 and 2011 combined, if the current rate continues.

Additional proof of the scale was evident last week when Eurostat revealed figures showing that the south of Ireland had the highest net outflow of population in the EU.

Once again the prospect of Irish communities withering away is a possible future.

We have been here before. John Healy famously shouted stop about the looming death of his homebirth place Charlestown. He firmly pointed the finger at the failed policies of the Govt. which did so little to save small town Ireland.

43 years later we need another John Healy as history repeats itself. Ogra Shinn Fein are currently running a campaign to highlight the current level of Emigration in Ireland

The Working Class is being replaced with the Unemployed class

The relentless trend of economic bad news is not going away. CSO figures for the Live Register shows unemployment is only getting worse. The Figures have now risen from 13.4% up to 13.7%. Since the last election the govt. has tripled the unemplyment rate from 4.5% up to that 13.7%.

But how long will all this last. Aren't things looking up according to the dublin govt. Well according to Ernst & Young's latest report persistent unemployment is going to remain around for a long time. Progressive-economy reports they suggests that it will be well over a decade before all-Island employment returns to its peak of 2.9m achieved in 2007. (And interestingly the report repeatedly focuses on all-Ireland rather than the component economies of each state which is at least one positive trend). For the 26 counties employment levels won’t return to their pre-recession level until 2022.

Some commentators have optimistically looked at the jobless figures and noted that the rate of increase for the live register is droppiing off.

But thats to miss the huge social implications of the return of long term unemployment, under-investment and emmigration.

Over 10 years of Fianna Fail jobs for the boys means another 10 years of unemployment and pain for ordinary people.

Its got to end. We need those bye-elections held, the govt. removed, and the serious work to begin so that the inherent stregth of the economy is developed for the benefit of ordinary people and not a cosy circle of insiders.

Problem Solved?

The Govt. could be forgiven for thinking that things were starting to improve for them. The recent bounce in the opinion polls and a fairly deft treading on water over the last few months saw them apparently pull through a difficult period.

And although today they did have the embarassing situation of defending a perjurer they did seem to be stabilising a bit.

The reason for that stability I contend is their success in defining the debate on the economy so narrowly. Successful economic policy today is not defined by how many people are in employment, wealth creation etc. but by how much our borrowing requirement can be reduced. The only criteria for success is the often arbitrary opinion of the the sovereign debt market.

And how successful they were in defining that as the yard stick of success. The budget, the McCarthy report, savage and sectional in their targeting went through without any real opposition.

The issue of budget deficit was a substantive one and no party could shy away from it, certainly SF did not and sought to tackle the structural deficit in a non-deflationary way. Sustantive as it is its not the only issue to be handled.

When Brian Lenihan went on RTE yesterday to state that Ireland was out of danger and commented we had found our own solution to our problems he was to some extent stating the truth. Indeed we have managed to avoid the situation whereby we undergo soverign default. But at what cost to our medium term economic prospects and societal cohesion. And while no one is arguing against avoiding an unsustainable deficit many are arguing against the deflationary measures of the Govt, even from the pages of the Wall street journal. And what about Michael Casey the former chief economist with the Central Bank and currently board member of the International Monetary Fund who commented that:

Our Government and the EU Commission have sold out to the rating agencies, none of whom cares about unemployment or emigration.

For a govt. which has defined our economic problems as being under the control of foreign lenders and money markets this is a worrying shift back to real world concerns.
The govt. have skilfully turned fear of default into one of its success criteria and having avoided such a default and created the illusion of stability it has managed to stabilise its own position in the polls. However I suspect that rather than this marking a come back for the govt. they now face a new danger. The narrative of fear surrounding debt default is receding and the more Lenihan claims we are out of the woods the weaker it gets.
Its been a successful diversion but with nearly half a million unemployed its becoming less possible for the govt. to sideline the issue.
Ultimately the govt. will have to face the issue of job creation. And job creation will not be easily managed or manipulated in the media since the govt. record is extremely poor on this issue.
According to Forfas in the years 98 to 08 less than 4000 net new jobs were added by foreign and irish-owned firms in the international tradable goods and services sectors.

Yet in retail, constructions etc up to half a million jobs were created. Likewise
in 2006, 83,000 new jobs were added to the economy but yet direct job creation in the export sectors was less than 6,000.
Clearly the capacity of the Irish economy to create jobs on its own is tiny, or is it more that the capacity of the economy to create jobs has been simply ignored. Considering that in 2007 the Irish invested €13.9 billion in European property deals but the Irish-owned business sector got under €200 million in venture capital investment is it surprising.

The SME sector has been sorely neglected by the govt. over many years and these difficult times are showing how. The number of corporate insolvencies in Ireland has soared to 1,406 in 2009, according to InsovencyJournal.ie

The govt. would love people to think that with the cost of Irish debt stabilising that they have saved us.
Yet we now have an economy that has very little demand in it and very little investment (now at 1998 levels) - the 2 pillars that created most jobs in the tiger era. People are saving like crazy and shops and construction are flatlining. But at the same time the lack of vision of the govt. is now catching up with the neglected SME sector and jobs are being lost.
Brian Lenihan may be happy thinking that its problem solved. However there is only so much treading water this govt. can do and as the debate switches away from bond spreads to job creation and the need for real reform on the structural deficit then the govt. will be once more vulnerable on the economic front.

Fás: New Board - Same Old System.

This is an article received from Red Rebel.

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The new Fás Board appointed by Mary Coughlan shows once again how the system of capitalist cronyism is perpetuated while the public is duped by the Government and the media into believing that reform is taking place. Phrases such as ‘accountability and transparency’ ‘new slimmed down Board’ and ‘root and Branch reform’ abounded throughout media reports which reflected Government spin and led to very little comment or questioning by a compliant media.. Ok so the Board was cut from 17 to 11 members. There will be rolling membership (which I presume means that there will be changes in membership during the lifetime of the Board) allowing the Minister make even more appointments. The new act makes the FÁS Director General accountable to the Oireachtas. It bans directors and staff of FAS from any involvement on matters where they have a conflict and also provides protection for whistleblowers who report serious wrongdoing in the organisation. Sounds lovely but the reality may prove to be a little different. First of all this is just another Government appointed Quango. The Quangos' combined annual budget was €13bn in 2006, according to a Think Tank for Action on Social Change report, and it's sure to be even more now. This is more than the projected total Government budget deficit of 9.4 billion euro for the year.


So lets take a look at who is on the Board. The new Chairman of the Board, Michael Demspey from Wexford is a former senior director of the mulit-national Bristol Myers Squibb, and a board member of BIM . He will have a fellow St. Mary's CBS old boy at the FÁS table as a newly appointed board members is Tony Dempsey, a former Fianna Fáil TD from Wexford. Martin Hogan ( innovation manager at Dun Laoghaire Institute of Art, Design and Technology) and of course a member of the Green Party is also there as is Donegal Fianna Fail supporter Margaret Sweeney (CEO of Postbank Ireland). This is the same Margaret Sweeney who pocketed a tax-efficient exit package of €529,315 plus pension contributions of €250,000 and her €25,000 Mercedes, bringing the total to over €800,000 from Aer Rianta in 2004 after less than a year in the job. Seán Gallagher, Managing Director, Smarthomes Limited;Board Member, InterTradeIreland and sometime TV personality. Emer Gilvarry Solicitor; Managing Partner, Mason, Hayes and Curran.Ms. Annette Hughes, Director, DKM Economic Consultants; Member, Euroconstruct; Member, National Competitiveness Council.. Séan Ó Longáin, Barrister; Former Chief Executive Officer, County Donegal Vocational Education Committee. r. Brendan J. Murphy, resident, Cork Institute of Technology. The usual Golden Circle of the Cream of the Country. Good at creaming it more like as friends of the establishment.


There is no appointee representing workers, the disabled or the unemployed. The Board is also in breach of the Government’ own Equality Legislation of a minimum of 40% female representation with only 3 women appointed. It is about time these Quangos were done away with and an executive of full time workers appointed from within the organisation under the direct control of a Minister who would have to appear with the executive before an Oireachtas Committee every year to account for their performance.

What Next for Ireland's Young?

To get back one's youth one has merely to repeat one's follies - So said Oscar Wilde.

Its an apt quote as south Ireland faces into a new era of large scale unemployment with the young being especially hard hit.

For decade after decade we exported our youth like they were cattle. It appears we are now on the verge of repeating this folly. Youth unemployment is rising dramatically and threatening to condemn another generation to a lost decade or to while their time away in another country.

What Next for Ireland's Young?

We are today beset by many crises in this country. The most serious crisis is of course the banking crisis and the money pit that NAMA represents - the crime of the century.

Attendant to that there are several other crisis - the structural crisis in our financial system where we spend more than we take in; the personal debt crisis coming down the line and the disaster that might happen if the ECB raises its interest rates (Although that seems to be unlikely for a while yet - but for how long?) etc.

With the economic mismanagement in this state having been so criminal its no surprise or wonder we are where we are.

Every sector of society, bar the influential minority able to distort the economy to their advantage, are hurting.

One demographic thats hurting particularly bad is young people. Its a grim time to be young in this state. Your chances of getting a job is low to none and if you do get a job then its more and more likely to be a part time job.

Young men have been especially hard hit by the downturn, with the unemployment rate rising to 40% for 15-19 year-olds and 30% for 20-24 year-olds. With no opportunity to get a job many of them are staying on in in education causing a sizable drop in labour force participation rates for those in the 15-24 year-old category.

The situation is grim all across europe / the euro zone. Currently unemployment for under 25s in spain has hit 41%. Thats a staggering figure. For the Euro region the rate in the euro region was 20.1 percent

In the medium term its likely that youth unemployment will continue to rise rapidly. The economy is likely to contract by nearly 2% in 2010.

Its a crisis thats starting to get some focus. Leading British labour economist David Blanchflower, who recently warned that the FF/Green coalition was driving the economy over a deflationary cliff, recently was reported in the Irish Times as having warned that Ireland, like Britain, faced the prospect of a lost generation. He highlighted research that showed those unemployed in there 20s are more likely to be unemployed, have lower health and generate a lower wage later in life. The problem with disadvantage is once you are disadvantaged you are always on the back foot and its hard to get your head above water.

How long will it be before they get back into the labour force and for those who do get back its more and more likely that they will be in part time labour. All across europe the % of workers in part time labour is increasing. Here its gone up by nearly 5%. Its going up because companies are trying to hold onto their staff rather than let them go, so drop them to part time. But the more part times we have the weaker the economy and the weaker the labour force and its power.

How are we going to solve this crisis.

Its a debate we have entered early with our jobs creation strategy and on Irisheconomy.ie economist Liam Delaney is commenting on it as well highlighting the fact that you can hardly condemn work experience programmes, or such active interventions into the labour market, as a failure when its FAS running them. Delaney recommends that the programme be simple be taken away from FAS. Considering the legacy of FAS is, frankly, a shameful legacy of graft and corruption, then it would be a good start. Lets give intervention and job supports an honest chance and not allow it be squandered by a failed organisation like FAS.

But if this state does not resolve the problem of youth unemployment then that will be another shameful legacy for a state tainted so much by graft and corruption.