Third Socialist Debate

I didn't see it, but Arun Kapil has an excellent rundown.

Changes in French Universities Noted in US

This will not come as news to regular blog readers, but changes in the French university system have begun to attract attention in the US.

Sixty: The Magic Number

So, the Socialists have had their third debate, and the field still looks pretty much the same. All except Valls and Baylet seem to think that "the legal retirement age of 60" is carved in stone and promise to abide by the Socialist platform, which pledges to return to it.

Ah, but there is fine print in the statements of the frontrunners. Sure, you can retire at 60, but only if you've paid in to the system for 41 to 41.5 years, which means starting work at 18.5 or 19, if math serves, and not missing any quarters because of unemployment, illness, childbirth, etc. And there will of course be exceptions for women and those whose work is difficult, but we'll talk about those things later ... which of course opens the door to all kinds of wheeling and dealing with this or that union when it comes down to brass tacks. So, in short, what you'll get is not what you see, but don't expect anyone to come clean on this issue. Don't even expect them to discuss the principles that might figure in their calculations. This is just too sensitive a topic, discussion of which might upset any number of applecarts. In other words, business as usual--and in the end, not much difference between the Aubry/Hollande position and the latest round of reform from the government. The crux of the matter is whether it will be necessary to go further, and if so, how far. On these questions the candidates are silent.

Trichet Ends with a Whimper

Jean-Claude Trichet didn't have the luck of Alan Greenspan. Nobody ever mistook Trichet for the Master of the Universe. And now he is ending his tenure at the European Central Bank with a whimper, possibly to be followed by the bang of a major crash:

“We are the epicenter of this global crisis,” Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank, said on Tuesday at the European Parliament.

True enough. A pity he didn't recognize this a few months back:

In a sign of how quickly the ground is shifting, the European Central Bank might lower interest rates on Thursday — just a few months after it started raising them in what is now seen as a misguided effort to stem incipient inflation.

Meanwhile, there is a general strike in Greece, a harbinger of things to come:

A growing chorus of analysts now predict that Europe is heading for an outright recession. “The sovereign debt crisis is like a fungus on the economy,” said Jörg Krämer, the chief economist at Commerzbank. “I thought it would be just a slowdown,” he said. “But I have changed my mind.”
Goldman Sachs predicted Tuesday that both Germany and France would slip into recession, although other forecasts are less grim.
Already, the euro zone economy has slowed to essentially zero growth. It could stay in a slump, many economists say, at least through next spring. If that happens, tax revenue is likely to fall and unemployment, already high, is expected to rise, making it even more difficult for Europe to address the sovereign debt crisis and protect its shaky banks.

Dexia

Dexia? What kind of name is that for a bank? Bank names are supposed to connote solidity: Banque Nationale de Paris, Crédit Agricole. Dexia sounds like a laxative. And it seems to be the first European bank to have succumbed to the crisis, although the French and Belgian governments, while assuring depositors and creditors that they will be made whole, isn't actually using the word "bankrupt." Instead, they speak of "breaking up" the bank and selling off the pieces. What they aren't saying quite so loudly is that the pieces are worth far less than the whole, and that one of the pieces will be a "bad bank," filled with Dexia's now worthless investments and owned by the taxpayers of France and Belgium. But there we are.

Strangely, this news isn't even in this morning's Times, which is still on the news of the day before yesterday that Dexia's stock was collapsing, and the US stock market rose sharply yesterday after falling sharply the day before, supposedly because of concerns about European debt. But here is the first major casualty of European debt, and the market is up. Go figure.

Juppé and "European Federation"

Has the euro crisis nudged key political leaders in Germany and France closer to a fiscal union? Perhaps. Jean Quatremer notes Alain Juppé's favorable mention of a "European federation," while Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, seems to be on the same page. (h/t Henry Farrell)

The only problem: I suspect that substantial majorities in both country would oppose the idea--unless, of course, the financial system were to be on the brink of collapse, in which case it will probably be too late.

Juppé and Schäuble may be moving closer, but Sarkozy and Merkel are not.

Presidentialism: Piège à Cons?

Is the outsized importance of the French presidency a detriment to democracy in general? Pierre Brunet and Arnaud Le Pillouer consider the issue:

Bien évidemment, les Français se passionnent pour les campagnes présidentielles et l’abstention y est donc bien plus faible que pour les autres scrutins. Mais c’est là que réside précisément le problème : à prendre comme seul indice de sa popularité le taux de participation à cette élection, on néglige le taux de déception qu’elle engendre, tant la personnalisation et la dramaturgie excessives à laquelle cette élection conduit inéluctablement, nourrissent le mythe de l’homme providentiel. Or, d’une part, la désillusion est toujours à la hauteur du fol espoir que l’on a bien été contraint de créer pour s’extirper des désillusions précédentes. D’autre part, en focalisant toute l’attention du public, cette compétition occulte l’importance (pourtant réelle) des autres scrutins. Aussi l’élection du président au suffrage universel direct est-elle nocive pour la santé politique de notre pays en ce qu’elle laisse place à l’idée que la démocratie pourrait se réduire à la volonté d’un seul homme. Il ne faut dès lors pas s’étonner que l’abstention augmente pour tous les autres scrutins lesquels, médiatiquement moins spectaculaires, apparaissent politiquement moins décisifs. Populaire, l’élection du président ne l’est donc qu’en surface : au fond, elle mine insidieusement la confiance de nos concitoyens dans leurs institutions.

No Fire in Borloo's Belly

It might seem an ideal moment for a centrist to make a run for the presidency, but Borloo isn't going to do it:

Jean-Louis Borloo renonce à se présenter à l'élection présidentielle

Interrogé sur le plateau du 20 heures de TF1, le président du Parti radical, qui avait laissé planer le doute sur une éventuelle candidature, a annoncé qu'il ne se présenterait finalement pas en 2012. (AFP)

Will someone else try? Bayrou, for sure. Morin? Villepin? Qui?

Juppé in the Wings?

The timing is interesting: The New York Times today has a quite laudatory profile of Alain Juppé, highlighting his contrast with Nicolas Sarkozy. Only yesterday Juppé himself revealed that he sometimes "dreams with his eyes open" about the possibility that some "surprise" might make him president. With many on the Right grumbling more or less publicly, especially after the Senate loss last Sunday, that Sarkozy is going to pull down the house around him, many are hoping for just such a divine surprise.

Of course we are seeing similar rumblings in the US as one Republican candidate after another stumbles out of the box. As the Rick Perry boomlet subsides, now we have a Chris Christie boomlet. And in France we have an Alain Juppé boomlet. Have the '95 strikes been forgotten already? The felony conviction? To be sure, Juppé mellowed somewhat while in Canadian exile, but the opposition can dredge up any number of Marie-Antoinette style "Let them eat cake!" pronouncements from his past. He may look like an ideal candidate for the moment simply because he is not Nicolas Sarkozy, speaks impeccable French, has a rapier wit, and displays Normalien precision in discussing any number of dossiers. Steven Erlanger says that the French can overlook these qualités because he has the redeeming défaut of dullness, which makes him un homme sérieux. On the contrary, he is the ultimate énarque, the man who knows better about absolutely everything. He might make an excellent president, but as a candidate I think he would quickly look like St. Sebastian.

Juppé vs. Zemmour

Interesting passe d'armes: