The Weather Man

National: Decent rain for parts of the Northern Territory, Queensland and Tasmania.

Accumulated falls between 20 and 50mm will fall over the south east quarter of Queensland, Western Tasmania and the northern inland of the Northern Territory with possible heavier falls over parts of Queensland.

A developing inland trough that extends from the Northern Territory to the north east of NSW will trigger showers and thunderstorms and as an upper trough approaches the trough in southern Queensland showers and storms will spread out into a thundery rain band with some moderate falls developing Saturday. Showers and storms will have the potential to become severe about the south east quarter of Queensland and northern border areas of NSW before clearing to the tropics late in the weekend.

The trough will gradually shift north through the NT with showers and storms over the coming days. Models suggest Sunday and Monday for the better falls across the Darwin-Daly district.

A weekend cold front will be followed by a strong high and deliver moist west to south west winds and widespread rainfall across western Tasmania with some decent falls about the west and south west of the state with conditions improving later Monday.

Showers and Thunderstorms are also likely to develop as troughs cross the eastern states but are more likely along the ranges. Warmer weather is expected to develop across the south east states during next week.

Weatherman going on leave tonight.... next post Thursday October 13th, see you then.

National: More warm and windy weather, with potential for rain in the east next week.

 

Another 24 to 48 hours of warm and windy weather is developing across the eastern half of the continent as a cold front currently crossing the south west of Western Australia moves east. North west winds will freshen ahead of the front although the strongest winds are not expected to reach as far north compared to the last front.

Rainfall will not be significant with the front although by Monday a broad area of low pressure should develop over South Australia and track east through the week with more widespread rainfall possible but there is still some variation between the models as to this development and the potential for rain but it is worth watching.

Behind today's front a ridge of high pressure will return most of the South West Land Division back to dry and sunny conditions until the next front reaches the region later Sunday. This front will lead to some cold conditions returning on Monday and Tuesday.

National: High clears the east as fronts descend on the south west.

 

A high developing over the south east inland will return the region to mostly dry and sunny conditions with temperatures slowly rising over the next 2 to 3 days. Winds are expected to become light in most areas before freshening again later Thursday across South Australia, Tasmania and Victoria as a front moving into Western Australia tomorrow moves into the south east.

Tasmania will remain under the influence of fresh to strong north west to south west winds over the coming days maintaining cloud and showers in the west of the state with accumulated falls up to 50mm.

Cold fronts will reach the south west of Western Australia tomorrow with a renewed burst of showers across the South West Land Division but the only accumulated falls in excess of 10mm are likely to be confined to the South West District. A ridge of high pressure will provide drier weather Friday and Saturday ahead of the next front late in the weekend. 

The tropics will remain warm and generally sunny with very warm to hot conditions

National: Fire dangers and winds to ease only to return with another front late in the week.

 

A cold front triggering strong and gusty northerly winds and dangerous fire conditions ahead of it will cross NSW and Queensland tomorrow although winds are not expected to be as extreme as experienced in parts of the south east states today.

Apart from the wind the front is not overly strong. Temperatures will only fall to average behind it with warmer conditions returning within 24 to 48 hours. Rainfall will be minimal across the mainland with the front. Falls up to 15mm are possible about western Tasmania and along the western side of the north east ranges of Victoria.

A ridge of high pressure will ease winds across most of the continent ahead of the next front due into Western Australia Wednesday before approaching the south east Thursday and crossing through to NSW Friday. This front could trigger very similar conditions to today's front with strengthening and possibly gusty and warm north to north west winds and increasing fire dangers ahead of the cold front with winds easing behind it. Rainfall with the front is not expected to be significant.  

 

National: Strong winds and rapid temeprature changes in the southern states.

 

There is little change in the overall synoptic pattern with cold fronts moving quickly across the southern mainland coastline with the greatest wind and rain impact in the south west of WA and western Tasmania. A stronger front moving through WA on Sunday will arrive overnight Monday and through Tuesday with very strong winds ahead of and with the change and widespread wind warnings are likely with increasing fire dangers in NSW and Queensland.

The only rain of note will be about western Tasmania where accumulated 8 day falls could reach 100mm. The south west of WA is the only other area with an expectation of greater than 10mm over the coming 8 days but even there falls are not expected to exceed 25mm apart from the western fringe of the south coast.

Temperature will increase ahead of the fronts as strengthening north west winds pull heat south from the hotter parts of central and northern Australia with cooler conditions directly behind the fronts. Across the South East the changes will be quick and frequent with big variations from day to day with areas further north experiencing more steady temperatures through the next 8 days.

Asthma alert for Sydney residents due to hazard reduction smoke.

 
Media Release from NSW Asthma Foundation

Date: 16 September, 2011

Burn Off Alert for Asthmatics 

 With smoke modelling indicating that wood smoke from scheduled hazard reduction work is going to drift across the Sydney Basin this weekend, Asthma Foundation NSW is issuing a wood smoke and high pollution alert for residents of Sydney and surrounding areas.

  Between today and Sunday, hazard reduction burns are scheduled for the Wollondilly, Blue Mountains, Hills District, Pittwater and Gosford areas.

Outside of Sydney, burns are planned in and around Lake Macquarie and Kempsey, down to Bega Valley and Eurobodalla, and further west to Cobar and Hay.

“While wood smoke does pose a health risk for asthmatics and people with other lung or respiratory conditions,; the hazard reduction work that the RFS does now is vital to protect property and lives during the warmer months when bushfires are a threat,” said Michele Goldman, CEO of Asthma Foundation NSW.

The 1:9 adults and children who live with asthma should be aware that exposure to wood smoke or high levels of other air pollutants could make asthma symptoms worse trigger a potentially fatal attack,’

We should always be mindful that asthma claims the lives of some 400 Australians each year.’

Wood smoke from bush fires contains particles that go deep into the lungs and irritate the airways. It also contains noxious gases like carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and a range of organic compounds. When combined with pollution from cars and industrial and domestic activities and exposed to intense sunlight, these chemicals produce smog. When the air is still, this pollution can become trapped over population areas instead of rising and dispersing.

The Department of Environment and Conservation issues air pollution reports twice daily for the Sydney, Illawarra and the Lower Hunter regions. When there are bushfires or high temperatures the Regional Pollution Index (PRI) will be high or hazardous. The information can be found at http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/aqms/aqi.htm or by calling 131 555.

 

 

 

 

 

“We advise people to research the places they intend to visit and weigh up the risks carefully. If intending to undertake a strenuous activity, such as bushwalking, aim to do it at times when there is a lower risk of bushfire and the Regional Pollution Index (RPI) is medium to low,” said Ms Goldman.

 

“People should consider avoiding sporting or exercise activities when pollution levels are high, to avoid making their asthma worse.”

 

“It is vital that all asthmatics continue to take their preventer medication and carry their reliever medication with them at all times in case of an emergency. Everyone with asthma

should have a written action plan so they know how to change their medication if their asthma becomes worse.”

 

Current information on the status of bushfires can be obtained on the Rural Fire Service website at: http://www.bushfire.nsw.gov.au  or call 1800 679 737.

 

In the event of a bushfire:

 Unless ordered to evacuate, stay indoors, close all windows and doors and block all air vents.

 Stay low to the ground and wear a face mask if exposure to smoke cannot be avoided, ensuring it firmly covers the nose and mouth.

 If you are in your car, put the air system onto recirculate to reduce your exposure to smoke

 Continue using your preventer medication as prescribed and ensure you have plenty of reliever medication on you at all times. Use your asthma action plan if your asthma starts to get worse.

 If your reliever medication isn’t reducing your asthma symptoms, seek medical attention without delay.

 After the fire, damp down any dry, dusty areas before doing a clean-up and wear a face mask.

Consumers with questions or concerns around this issue can call the Asthma Foundation NSW information line on 1800 645 130, or log onto: www.asthmafoundation.org.au

National: Four day's, two fronts and above average temperatures.

 

A weak cold front will cross the south east states Saturday but a ridge of high pressure will prevent any significant weather from developing with a run of above average temperatures developing ahead of the second and stronger front sweeping into the south east states during Monday and Tuesday.

A generally north west wind flow will draw warm air from the northern and central parts of the continent and combine with increasing heating of the land under sunny skies to push temperatures well above the September average. Although temperatures are expected to be warm at this stage there is no indication of record maximums developing over the next 4 days.

Ahead of the second and stronger front north west winds will strengthen significantly across the southern states with coastal and land wind warnings likely.

South west to north west winds will keep the south west of Western Australia cooler with some showers and cloudy conditions at times but falls away from the far south west coast should be light. The best potential for rain will be with a front on Sunday.

Western Tasmania will also be under the influence of north west to south west winds with showers fairly persistent in the west where falls could reach up to 50mm.

National: No significant change in the weather pattern for another week.

 

At this stage the forecast models are not indicating any significant change to the overall weather pattern until the middle to end of next week. A ridge of high pressure will dominate with warm and sunny conditions across most of the continent.

The ridge will keep any significant cold fronts south of the mainland and although a couple will clip the south east, the impact will not be significant. Temeperatures will increase ahead of the fronts and cool slightly behind but there will be no major outbreak of cold conditions with the impact from the fronts short lived.

Tasmania and the south west of Western Australia are the only areas likely to pick up more than a couple of millimetres of rain accumulated over the next 4 days with the only fall in excess of 15mm in western Tasmania. The following 4 days will could see some slightly better falls about the far south west of WA.

Winds will also be fresh to strong at times especially ahead of and behind the cold fronts with the southern coastline and Tasmania the area's most likely to experience windy conditions as well as the far north east tropical coast of Queensland.

National: Temperatures soar in the north west ahead of warm weekend in the south east.

 
 
Temperatures across the north west of the continent will push into the mid 30's and remain there for the next week with some locations possibly pushing into the high 30's over the weekend. Winds are expected to ease and humidity rise which should also ease the extreme fire dangers. This is only the beginning of the heating with the nations first 40 degree temperature usually recorded in the north west districts during September or early October. 

Elsewhere temperatures will warm towards the weekend as a high draws warm air from the north west and central Australia into the south eastern and eastern states. Weak fronts clipping the south east coastline will have little impact away from the coast and Tasmania with the only rainfall above a millimetre or two confined to western Tasmania. These fronts are due Wednesday and Saturday.

The south west of Western Australia will also come under the influence of weak fronts however the only areas looking at falls above 10mm are the South Coastal and South Western districts. Temperatures will remain close to average and vary little over the coming 7 days.