by Aziz Poonawalla on October 6, 2011
in Blogs and Blogging
My friend Aamer is a practicing cardiologist in LA and he has started blogging on his own site, courtesy of wordpress.com. One of his first posts is about the Conrad Murray case – Dr. Murray is being prosecuted for manslaughter in the death of his patient, Michael Jackson, and Aamer argues quite convincingly that the case should not be a criminal case but rather a simple malpractice one.
Aamer also shares his perspective on the “job creator” debate – in a nutshell, he IS one, but a reluctant one!
In general, check out his thoughts. Well worth reading for a non-cookie-cutter view of politics and issues. He’s a great writer and an incisive intellect, even if he still insists on his Huntsman for President nonsense!
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by Dean Esmay on October 6, 2011
in History,technology
Holy ….! Steve Jobs has died.
I don’t even know what to say. I was not an admirer, exactly, yet his influence on my life, and the world, is simply not possible to calculate.
I’ll have to collect my thoughts and figure out if there’s anything more to say besides: “Wow. Just wow.”
*Update*: This commencement address he gave at Stanford in 2005 gives the flavor of the man’s accomplishments and the better side of his personality.
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I suppose it marks me as old to note that the big buzz in the 1990s was the so-called “thin client,” which (back in the late ’90s) was supposed to supplant the traditional desktop PC, with a very bare-bones computer that depended on a server to do most of its work. I remember being extremely skeptical at the time. My skepticism was justified; it never worked out.
When “the cloud” came along I at first thought the same exact thing, but the more I read about it, analyzed it, and looked at the trends, the more convinced I became that no, this probably is the future.
Although I have been repeatedly accused of saying the Personal Computer would “die,” I have never said that and do not believe it. What I do believe is that it’s in the process of disappearing, and that this is an exponential trend. What I’ve said for the last few years is the trend has started, and that some time around the end of the decade (the decade that ended with 2010) that would start becoming more apparent to more people. Well, perhaps I’m still a little ahead of the curve on that, but it’s increasingly apparent to me that more and more people are showing a preference for not having to know where their data is, they just want it to be there for them wherever they are. The increase in use of personal devices–smart phones and tablets–is now undeniable. The number of people who actually need a PC is slowly dwindling, although the number who use one is probably dwindling even slower.
Still, I see that even the Open Source companies are starting to adopt the technology. As much as I love open source, I ruefully note that when it comes to the cutting edge, they’re usually a few steps behind. But I think when even that community is starting to realize “hey I really would like my data in a cloud,” it means the changes are accelerating.
I suspect that by the time this decade’s out, the Personal Computer as we know it will be much like it was when we first got to know it back in the 1980s: something that scientists, engineers, geeks, gamers, and specialists use. Everyone else will be on their phones, tablets, and God knows what else. And that today’s children will grow up rather amused at the notion that your personal data storage is actually in some physical thing you have to be aware of, rather than just generally available wherever they go.
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by Dean Esmay on October 1, 2011
in Best Discussions,Economics,History,Politics
So, uhm, it sorta looks like the Euroskeptics were right after all, although not necessarily always for the same reasons.
I was always skeptical of the project because it was based on the wrong premise, that great wars were caused by economic and ethnic tensions and that unifying Europe would end centuries of warfare. But that’s not what caused Europe’s centuries of war, nor was ending those things what caused them to stop. And while you can unify people of varying language and ethnicity (Switzerland and India being living proof) it’s always a dicey proposition (see Pakistan and Bangladesh’s former status as part of each other and India for living proof).
The European project had no sound theory underlying it and no strong reason for doing it except a vague ideology with vague goals. Had it just been an idea for one big free trade zone it might have worked. Had the Euro been a separate currency that all the other European currencies floated against it might have worked. But the whole thing as they did it was an incoherent mess from start to finish. Or so I always thought anyway. I mean, I guess you could say Europe itself has always been an incoherent mess, but fixing an incoherent mess with an even bigger, messier incoherency dressed up to look like a government-that’s-not-a-government just always looked foolish to me.
Prediction: a few riots. A lot of name calling. Further recession, reform. Stabilization eventually. They’ll mostly otherwise keep taking it out on each other on the soccer field.
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This site was down almost all day today. I’m not sure what happened but the ISP has us back up.
Sorry about that. But now I really am getting paranoid. I don’t know as yet what happened exactly but we’re back.
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by Dean Esmay on September 29, 2011
in Law and Morality,Science
Recent discussions here on Dean’s World led the Fabulous Gi to send me an interesting article, which notes that recent study has concluded that about 1 out of 25, or 4%, of high-level company managers are psychopaths, which is about 4 times the number of psychopaths in the general population.
I would like to get ahold of the original study–I rarely trust mainstream news sources to report on science correctly–but I am willing to accept at face value that this number is reasonably close to correct. Intuitively, the number sounds about right. Having been a manager, and having worked at, or with, multiple companies from very small all the way up to the Fortune 500 level, I’m quite certain I’ve encountered these people. They aren’t everybody (not even close) but they’re clearly almost always there. In fact I’m pretty sure most anyone who’s worked in corporate America has encountered them; the very traits that make a psychopath would allow many of them to be tremendously successful on a personal level, although I would expect them to wreak all sorts of damage on whatever organization they’re attached to in the long run. I would also expect most of them to eventually fail personally as the very traits that made them successful would often wind up destroying them.
Although the study probably did not look at this question, I am fairly certain a similar percentage of psychopaths are to be found among politicians. Some might say the number is higher in politics, but I’m not inclined to think so. Despite my admitted cynicism about politicians, I believe most people who enter politics do so out of a genuine desire to improve their city, state, country, etc.
This leads to the natural question of “what is a psychopath? And can it be defined objectively?” The answer there is yes; it has been defined fairly well by psychiatric researchers for decades. The shorthand definition is a person who is incapable of feeling empathy, guilt, or remorse. Although it’s controversial to say so, it appears to be a brain-wiring issue; they literally lack this capacity. Having no capacity for guilt, remorse, or empathy would lead to all sorts of things, but not necessarily the Hollywood stereotype of the psychopathic killer. Being unable to feel guilt would not make you automatically sadistic, for example, although if you had sadistic impulses you would have little to hold you back from acting on them (except maybe wishing to avoid being caught). It would not make you prone to commit murder, but if you did commit a murder, or even an accidental killing, you would not feel bad about it. It would not lead you to steal, but you wouldn’t feel bad about it if you did.
If you had this lack of any ability to feel guilt or remorse, and you also had a tendency toward violence, theft, vandalism, etc. then you would probably be more likely to commit those acts. Thus the psychopath is not necessarily dangerous, but what you would expect is for psychopaths to make up a large percentage of the population of criminals. But you would also find them in higher numbers in any endeavor–military positions, politics, business, etc.–where being utterly without a conscience might serve you well. If killing people doesn’t bug you a bit, then bombing a city into oblivion wouldn’t even make you flinch. If screwing someone over in a business deal wouldn’t bother you, you’d be willing to do anything to get ahead. If you just wanted sex, you’d have no problem lying to someone to make them think you loved them just so you could get them into bed. And so on and so forth.
Dr. Robert Hare appears to be the researcher who has done the most to define what psychopathy is, and is not, in clinical terms. And he’s expressed many concerns over the use of his work, since it can be misapplied in many ways. For example, while psychological tests can indicate with a high degree of reliability whether or not someone is psychopathic (and again, their percentage in the pgeneral opulation appears to be about 1%), the questions about what to do with that information are huge. For example, as already stated, most psychopaths are not violent and do not commit criminal acts. We just know they’re more likely to do so, since their lack of empathy, pity, or remorse makes them more impulsive and less prone to give a damn what anyone thinks of them. They instinctively tend to like themselves and be narcissistic–but, although most psychopaths will be narcissists, all narcissists will not be psychopaths.
Furthermore, what do you do if through testing you can nail down with high certainty that a person is a psychopath? Do you incarcerate them or place them under constant observation, just on the theory that they might do something wrong? Do you immediately remove them from any position of power, on the theory that they might do damage? Such questions are not theoretical; in some countries such laws have been proposed, and apparently, in criminal cases, someone testing positive for psychopathic traits has been used in trials against accused criminals, or in sentencing them. Is that even ethical? And what about misuse of these tests by unqualified individuals?
Then there’s the really hot-button issue: psychological treatment to help criminals identify their own dysfunctional behavior may help them be less likely to repeat their offenses and become better people–but with a psychopath (which, again, is specifically defined as a person incapable of empathy or remorse), such treatment may only make them more likely to offend, as they learn the buzz words and tricks necessary to make them look rehabilitated when all you’ve done is make them more clever at disguising their misbehavior.
Dr. Hare maintains his own web site here, and it includes a fascinating article on all these matters here.
Although you probably want to read all of the above first, a fascinating documentary is available about a genuine self-admitted psychopath who is willing to talk about it. He hasn’t killed anyone, but he’s been a ruthless businessman who’s gained and lost several fortunes, and now makes money promoting himself and his views on psychopathy. It’s fascinating stuff and while I haven’t watched it all yet, I’ve watched a good chunk and intend to watch the rest: I, Psychopath, a film about self-admitted psychopath Sam Vaknin.
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by Dean Esmay on September 28, 2011
in Economics,Politics
In a recent discussion, these people were actually called not just socialists, but outright communists.
Really?
I mean, really really?
There is a temptation in politics to demonize those you disagree with, and there is always a trend for the most strident voices to stick out. But I have to ask: can’t we just disagree with people without calling them names, armchair psychoanalyzing them, or otherwise denigrating their character?
I used to consider myself a libertarian; I don’t really anymore, mostly because I think our economic system is far more artificial and government-supported than many libertarians are willing to acknowledge. And that our elaborate system of corporate law is mostly a state invention. That doesn’t mean we do away with corporations–that would be silly–but it does mean that they need to be watched and regulated. You don’t have to agree with me–we don’t all have to share the same values or ideas–but it’s foolish to draw sweeping conclusions. Capitalism has produced many things, and capitalists have done many great things; destroying it or them would be foolish in the extreme. And I have learned a lot from libertarian economic thinkers over the years, and they often made me think about things differently even when I didn’t always agree with them, or have changed my mind on some things now.
I don’t think any of that makes me or anyone else a socialist or a communist. I don’t think that’s true of the people in that video, and I don’t think it’s true of people like Warren Buffet either. I suspect they’re mostly people who agree with the belief that our society, and the system of government which is an integral part of it, has made most of their wealth possible, and that it’s right to ask that if you benefit disproportionately, you pay disproportionately–not to destroy you, envy you, hate you, or anything else. Again, you do not have to agree, and disagreeing doesn’t make you evil; it makes you part of the national dialogue. It makes us all part of it.
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Some time in the last couple of days this site got hacked. If you tried posting anything you’d be instantly redirected to a site trying to sell you Viagra and other pharmaceuticals. If I were paranoid I’d wonder whose political or religious sensibilities I’d so annoyed. But I’ll just go with the explanation that this is a high-traffic site and there’s no end of scummy things some people will do to make money.
Anyway, we appear to have it fixed. If you see it again please alert us.
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by Dean Esmay on September 24, 2011
in Science
No way.
It would be amazing if true. Someone has to duplicate it to confirm, and obviously the most important question is going to be to the accuracy of the measurements.
This could be a huge mistake, but if not, it’s huge, period. The next thing you’ll tell me is that the laws of thermodynamics need rewriting too.
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by Dean Esmay on September 23, 2011
in Music
OK, I made an allusion to it last week, so let’s make it formal. Great music from cartoons! Here’s an old favorite:
(Higher-quality versions are available commercially by the way, such as here.)
Of course we can open it up to anything involving great music tied to animation. Got anything cool?
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by Dean Esmay on September 21, 2011
in Best Discussions,Economics,Politics
I, for one, have grown sick of recent paint-by-numbers armchair psychoanalysis and mangling of the English language to score cheap political points. For example:
So Warren Buffet is now a “socialist” huh? Ace Greenberg is a “socialist” huh? That’s funny, they look like some of the world’s most successful capitalists to me, and quite rightfully proud of their own achievements as capitalists. Capitalists who’ve done good by producing jobs and goods and services, and capitalists who are still doing good by recognizing that it’s this country that made their wealth possible.
The word “socialism” means “the workers own the means of production.” It means you abolish capitalists and put the workers in charge of every business. It does not mean “you tax the rich disproportionately.” Use a dictionary for God’s sake, or do some reading on what actual socialists believe.
Warren Buffet is not a socialist. Ace Greenberg is not a socialist. I am not a socialist. Neither is the President. Although some socialistic ideas, like having everyday people own part of publicly-traded corporations–such as your 401(k) plan–are not bad, raw absolute socialism is no better than raw absolute capitalism is.
Then there was this not-so-long-ago cheap shot from Neil Cavuto, saying that rich people who think they should pay more taxes “feel guilty” for being successful:
This sort of armchair psychoanalysis is slanderous. Most of all, it’s cheap. It’s a bumper-sticker substitute for thought. You think it’s your patriotic duty to help your country, and that means you feel “guilty?” Does that mean people who volunteer to serve in the armed forces “feel guilty” too?
And what if you’re not wealthy but you agree with the Patriotic Millionaires? I know, it’s because you feel “envy,” right? Why does a rational position that our economic system is artificial and requires corrective mechanisms to even the playing field, and believing that people who prosper have a patriotic duty to help their country, equate to “envy?” Answer: it does not.
You can stop calling it “class warfare” while you’re at it; the real “class warfare” comes in idolizing wealth-acquisition as if this is automatically virtuous, and condemning the poor as being “lazy” and “unproductive” or “losers.” That’s real class warfare.
One of the reasons I intend to vote for Obama in the upcoming elections is that I am sick and tired of petty, cheap, slanderous psychoanalysis from the right wing on these sorts of things. You owe this country pretty much everything you have, and it is not in the least bit unfair to ask you to pay more if you’re doing well by manipulating our carefully-designed economic system to your advantage. You don’t have to agree, but you can stop being cheap about people who don’t agree with you, and you can stop mangling the English language.
Because I’ll tell ya what: the alternative is, those of us who disagree with you can just call you greedy, acquisitive, materialist, selfish, and cruel, and accuse you of wanting to return us to slavery and of wanting to throw widows and orphans out in the snow. I think that would be cheap and disingenuous too, but that would be tit for tat, wouldn’t it?
These people do not “feel guilty.” The’re red-blooded patriots. And you will likely never convince me that we are “punishing productivity” by asking them to pay a more fair share back to the society that made every bit of their wealth possible.
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Neal Stephenson’s new book is out!
I have to say that Anathem was probably one of the most astonishing books I ever read. I was very pleased indeed that Stephenson was well-represented on the NPR Top 100 list.
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by John Eddy on September 19, 2011
in Fiction
Methuselah’s Daughter, A Novel: a tale of immortality, madness, love and redemption. One of the very first stories to make the transition from blog to print, a 2007 Blooker Prize Finalist, is now available in paperback, iBook and Kindle formats!
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by Dean Esmay on September 19, 2011
in Economics,technology
The Fabulous Gi and I have been Netflix subscribers for almost a year and have been very pleased with the service. Mind you, there are specific complaints; for example their social networking features suck. You ought to be able to list your friends, make recommendations to them and accept recommendations from them. Also, occasionally, when there are issues with the service that are a little out of the ordinary, figuring out how to give feedback is sometimes difficult. But those are trifles. On the whole, the service has been outstanding.
A couple of months ago we read that they were boosting their prices, and were going to charge $7.99/month for their streaming video service and another $7.99/month for their DVD-by-Mail service. You used to get both services together for something like $9.99/month. When reading their reasons for the new pricing, we both grinned a little and halfway expected to see our names in the press releases; we use the streaming service every day and we average a little over 2 DVDs a week.
You see, unlike most Americans, we don’t even watch TV. Literally, we don’t have a working TV tuner or cable box anywhere in the house. Furthermore, because Hulu+ sucks (and it definitely sucks by the way) we don’t watch much of anything except what Netflix gives us. We halfway expect that we’re on a list somewhere of “crazy customers we should charge more money.”
So when they announced the price change we thought: so, either pay an additional $6/month, or drop one of the services. This is such a big deal? What is that, the cost of a couple of movie rentals at Blockbuster?
But apparently a lot of people were steamed. And didn’t cool off. Netflix’s stock value dropped to half what it was and apparently a ton of customers were furious. I figured this was all an overblown reaction but apparently the Netflix people are freaked. This morning I got this somewhat amusing “I’m sorry, so sorry, I suck, please forgive me” letter:
From: Reed Hastings, Co-Founder and CEO of Netflix info@netflix.com
Dear Dean,
I messed up. I owe you an explanation.
It is clear from the feedback over the past two months that many members felt we lacked respect and humility in the way we announced the separation of DVD and streaming and the price changes. That was certainly not our intent, and I offer my sincere apology. Let me explain what we are doing.
For the past five years, my greatest fear at Netflix has been that we wouldn’t make the leap from success in DVDs to success in streaming. Most companies that are great at something – like AOL dialup or Borders bookstores – do not become great at new things people want (streaming for us). So we moved quickly into streaming, but I should have personally given you a full explanation of why we are splitting the services and thereby increasing prices. It wouldn’t have changed the price increase, but it would have been the right thing to do.
So here is what we are doing and why.
Many members love our DVD service, as I do, because nearly every movie ever made is published on DVD. DVD is a great option for those who want the huge and comprehensive selection of movies.
I also love our streaming service because it is integrated into my TV, and I can watch anytime I want. The benefits of our streaming service are really quite different from the benefits of DVD by mail. We need to focus on rapid improvement as streaming technology and the market evolves, without maintaining compatibility with our DVD by mail service.
So we realized that streaming and DVD by mail are really becoming two different businesses, with very different cost structures, that need to be marketed differently, and we need to let each grow and operate independently.
It’s hard to write this after over 10 years of mailing DVDs with pride, but we think it is necessary: In a few weeks, we will rename our DVD by mail service to “Qwikster”. We chose the name Qwikster because it refers to quick delivery. We will keep the name “Netflix” for streaming.
Qwikster will be the same website and DVD service that everyone is used to. It is just a new name, and DVD members will go to qwikster.com to access their DVD queues and choose movies. One improvement we will make at launch is to add a video games upgrade option, similar to our upgrade option for Blu-ray, for those who want to rent Wii, PS3 and Xbox 360 games. Members have been asking for video games for many years, but now that DVD by mail has its own team, we are finally getting it done. Other improvements will follow. A negative of the renaming and separation is that the Qwikster.com and Netflix.com websites will not be integrated.
There are no pricing changes (we’re done with that!). If you subscribe to both services you will have two entries on your credit card statement, one for Qwikster and one for Netflix. The total will be the same as your current charges. We will let you know in a few weeks when the Qwikster.com website is up and ready.
For me the Netflix red envelope has always been a source of joy. The new envelope is still that lovely red, but now it will have a Qwikster logo. I know that logo will grow on me over time, but still, it is hard. I imagine it will be similar for many of you.
I want to acknowledge and thank you for sticking with us, and to apologize again to those members, both current and former, who felt we treated them thoughtlessly.
Both the Qwikster and Netflix teams will work hard to regain your trust. We know it will not be overnight. Actions speak louder than words. But words help people to understand actions.
Respectfully yours,
-Reed Hastings, Co-Founder and CEO, Netflix
p.s. I have a slightly longer explanation along with a video posted on our blog, where you can also post comments.
Good lord. I’m not sure that splitting it into two completely unrelated services is a smart business model, but my God, we must live in economically stressed times indeed when there’s this much hubbub over a price increase from $9.99/month to $15.98/month for all the movies and DVDs you can eat. I’m not unsympathetic to people going through hard times–just two years ago there were days when I wasn’t sure where I would find food–but this seems like a crazy over-reaction by consumers, the stock market, and even Netflix management. I halfway expect to see Reed Hastings on that video sobbing on his hands and knees and begging us to forgive him.
It’s $6/month, people, and you can drop one or the other if that’s too much for you. Calm down!
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by Dean Esmay on September 19, 2011
in Politics,Popular culture
I have over the years gone from loving Jon Stewart to hating Jon Stewart to feeling ambivalent about him. This Esquire piece is the best look at how ambiguity has come to define him. Ultimately I like the guy but… well… you tell me: Jon Stewart and the Burden of History by Tom Junod.
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by Dean Esmay on September 18, 2011
in humor,technology
Boo Google.
(Heh.)
More seriously, long-term, Google’s going to need to look closer at their customer service policies. It’s wonderful how well their stuff works and that it’s free and all, but when you can’t call anybody and can’t write to anybody with decent customer service skills, you’re going to do dumb things and have a hard time having anyone let you know you’ve got a problem. Except in big ways that make you look dumb in the public eye.
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by Dean Esmay on September 17, 2011
in humor
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by jaymaster on September 16, 2011
in Music
What are you listening to?
I’ve been on an old country binge. Don’t know why, really.
I think maybe the approach of Fall makes me reflective.
Not in the shiny way, but in the looking back way.
Sinin’ Country
Not country by any stretch, but I’m digging it right now.
What’s on your playlist?
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by Dean Esmay on September 16, 2011
in Economics,Politics
I see my own Congressman, Thad McCotter (who’s a good guy and the only Republican I voted for in the last election) is running for President and trying to get into the debates. Hardly anyone is taking him seriously as a candidate, but I like the guy and would like to see him in the debates myself.
His proposal on Social Security goes further than I would with the program, but I think it’s a good idea on general principles. The grand irony being that, if we did allow people to put all or part of their Social Security contributions into private funds like a 401(k), it would become a genuinely socialist program.
Although people who don’t know what “socialism” is sometimes call the current system “socialist,” it isn’t. It’s actually just a fairly mundane, mandatory pension system wherein current workers pay for the retirement of current retirees, not much different than the way many private pension and even life insurance policies work. If we had a system wherein all workers automatically took money out of their paychecks to buy into stock-based mutual funds, then all workers would be part owners of the companies that run much of the country. Thus, “privatizing” Social Security would be real, honest to God, old-fashioned Socialism. Shh, don’t tell anyone!
It’s also a very good idea. Not only would even the poorest Americans finally truly own something that could never be taken away from them, and have a direct stake in our economic system, but it would tie Wall Street to Main Street in a way it never has been.
Indeed, one of the main objections to this idea has been the claim that it would mean Wall Street cronies would get to “play with” all that money. Um, no, what it would mean is that every politician in every district in America would have a direct interest in regulating the behavior of publicly traded corporations to make sure they behave in a way that is productive for all Americans.
If everybody owns stock, everybody has a stake in the market, and people who screw with the market are screwing with everybody. Although at first glance it looks like we’re handing Wall Street all sorts of control, what it would do in the long run is take a lot of the control away from Wall Street, because everyday voters would care a lot more about what happens in the market and would exert pressure on politicians to keep things stable and responsible.
In short, it’s a good, solid, progressive idea. And, yes, socialist, moving us towards having workers owning the means of production.
McCotter’s idea goes too far with it, but I’d like to see him in the debates so we can talk more about this as a country. I would prefer something much more like George W. Bush’s plan, which is to give people an option to invest a small portion of their payroll tax contribution into highly regulated 401(k) style accounts, in exchange for slightly lower returns from the main Social Security fund. This good idea was tragically shot down by Democrats a few years ago, but that doesn’t mean the idea should die. We really ought to be doing something like that; a society in which everybody has a true ownership stake would have positive effects all up and down the economic spectrum–and not always in the ways some people think, either. You want to equalize the social classes? Make every American an owner.
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