There was never much doubt that Muammar Qaddafi of Libya was a deluded narcissist but the incredible violence he has unleashed on his own people this week has now established that the man is a raving lunatic who will happily see his country descend into complete chaos and destruction rather than release his group on power.
Qaddafi still has loyal armed forces at his disposal despite the rapidly growing defections from within the Army and Air force. These forces, some of whom are lead by one of his sons, are bolstered it appears by large numbers of African mercenaries and together they have been engaging in seemingly wanton killing of civilians.
Many countries had large numbers of their citizens working in Libya and there is a scramble to get the remainder of these people out of the country. Western leaders have been slow to take action against the Libyan regime and this might be seen as at least in part due to the fact that they are still playing catch-up with fast moving events in Mediterranean Africa and the Middle East. However it also seems likely that they are only just now beginning to take firm positions on such matters as sanctions because of a fear that their citizens in Libya might be taken hostage by the regime. That fear should now be rapidly passing though and the time has come to consider what further actions might be taken to support the Libyan peoples revolution.
Passing resolutions at the UN and throwing Libya out of international Human Rights organisations is all very symbolic but is likely to have little effect on the decisions taken by a madman. Neither is the imposition of sanctions likely to have any impact in the short term on the murderous behaviour of Gaddafi's regime. Threats that members of the regime will be taken to an international court might work for a sane leader but probably wont work with Qaddafi.
Qaddafi it seems has decided that if he cant rule Libya then he and his country have reached their Gotterdamerung. This man is mad enough to want to go out in an orgy of blood and destruction rather than step aside.
The only question then at this stage is whether a way can be found for Qaddafi to meet his fate without him taking the lives of many more thousands of Libyans with him.
A no fly zone wont really deal with this situation and there will be little appetite in the west for any intervention on the ground. Western armies do now though have access to remote technologies that could be used to target Qaddafi and either kill him or weaken him enough to allow the Libyan people to complete their revolution.
One solution to this present situation might be for the security council to recognise the madness of this dictator and to authorise the use of cruise missiles and /or drones to target Qaddafi's known centres of power and known loyal armed force bases.
It would not be wise for any group of nations to do this without UN backing of course but with UN security council support this would be a legitimate act. The problem is that the security council has on it nations who themselves are autocratic states such as Russia and China who will not wish to authorise actions against a tyrant - even a mad tyrant - when they themselves are little better and may now themselves be feeling vulnerable to this wave of people revolutions. So the cruise missiles and drones will probably stay in their bases. More the pity.
Feb 25, 2011
Feb 23, 2011
Airgun shooting at Auchinleck Academy
The Ayrshire village of Auchinleck was shocked today when a shooting incident at Auchinleck Academy resulted in injuries to nine pupils. The shooting took place at around 1:30 today in the Church Street area of Auchinleck and some reports suggested that two people were involved in shooting the young people. More recent reports have suggested that the police have now arested an 18 year old man in connection with the incident. The nine injured children were taken to Crosshouse Hospital in Kilmarnock were eight discharged quickly but one was kept in for further treatment.
Reports suggested that the pupils had been shot in the legs or the back. The school appeared to act quickly and called in the police.and notified parents. East Ayrshire Council has indicated that it is working with the school to arrange apropriate support for the pupils involved.
This incident comes hard on the heels of of a riot at a recent local football match between Auchinleck Talbot and Cumnock Juniors which made the national news and it does further serious harm to the reputation of the area.
Reports suggested that the pupils had been shot in the legs or the back. The school appeared to act quickly and called in the police.and notified parents. East Ayrshire Council has indicated that it is working with the school to arrange apropriate support for the pupils involved.
This incident comes hard on the heels of of a riot at a recent local football match between Auchinleck Talbot and Cumnock Juniors which made the national news and it does further serious harm to the reputation of the area.
Feb 16, 2011
Iran regime seeks conflict as distraction from protests
Reports suggesting that Iran may be about to try to send warships through the Suez Canal to Syria have produced a predictable angry and threatening response from Israel. This is entirely what the Iranian regime is looking for - conflict with Israel which will distract from the protests in Iran.
The Iranian regime tried to claim that the revolts in Tunisia and Egypt were Islamist revolutions inspired by Irans own Islamist revolution but nothing could be further from the truth. The revolts started as protests against economic and social conditions but quickly morphed into wider demands for an end to autocracy and demands for democratic freedoms. The revolts had an Islamic flavour of course - that is to be expected and is not an unreasonable thing in countries which are essentially Islamic. But the slogans of the revolutions were not Islamist - people were not on the streets demanding that the dictatorship of Mubarak be replaced by a dictatorship of the Mullahs.
In a dictatorship as tightly controlled as Iran though the religiously minded autocrats thought that they could fool their own people by claiming that the Pan Arab revolutionary atmosphere supported their own Shia Islamist world view. The Iranian regime immediately started a campaign of misinformation and intimidation intended to frighten the pro-democracy movement in Iran from attempting anything similar to what as happened in Egypt.
The Iranian thugocracy has perhaps even less scruples than the Mubarak regime. They are likely to be less troubled by firing on their own citizens given their shameful record of executing dissidents.
There is a wind blowing in the Middle East though that can't be stopped. People clearly are fed up with autocracies of any form and they want the freedom to express their views and choose their own rulers. They want freedom from the threat of secret police and religious police.
The regime is showing signs that it is worried by the protests and there are calls for the leaders of the opposition movements to be executed. Protesters are being decried as agents of foreign powers and the media is under tight control with little access for foreign journalists. The Iranian regime is wheeling out all the same tired tactics that dictatorships do when their people revolt and cry "enough" !
Not only should we expect the Iranian regime to be more violent in its response but we should not be surprised when we hear them take actions which provoke conflict with Israel and the West. The regime will be desperate to create headlines for its people which give them something to rally around other than calls for proper democracy. It's in that context that Iran is now perhaps about to send ships through the Suez Canal.
The regime will figure that whatever the outcome it will gain. If Israel responds firmly and harshly then the regime will have a cause to rally the Iranian people. If Israel does not respond then Iran has shown that it can exert naval; power and influence in the Mediterranean right next door to Israel.
The Iranian regime tried to claim that the revolts in Tunisia and Egypt were Islamist revolutions inspired by Irans own Islamist revolution but nothing could be further from the truth. The revolts started as protests against economic and social conditions but quickly morphed into wider demands for an end to autocracy and demands for democratic freedoms. The revolts had an Islamic flavour of course - that is to be expected and is not an unreasonable thing in countries which are essentially Islamic. But the slogans of the revolutions were not Islamist - people were not on the streets demanding that the dictatorship of Mubarak be replaced by a dictatorship of the Mullahs.
In a dictatorship as tightly controlled as Iran though the religiously minded autocrats thought that they could fool their own people by claiming that the Pan Arab revolutionary atmosphere supported their own Shia Islamist world view. The Iranian regime immediately started a campaign of misinformation and intimidation intended to frighten the pro-democracy movement in Iran from attempting anything similar to what as happened in Egypt.
The Iranian thugocracy has perhaps even less scruples than the Mubarak regime. They are likely to be less troubled by firing on their own citizens given their shameful record of executing dissidents.
There is a wind blowing in the Middle East though that can't be stopped. People clearly are fed up with autocracies of any form and they want the freedom to express their views and choose their own rulers. They want freedom from the threat of secret police and religious police.
The regime is showing signs that it is worried by the protests and there are calls for the leaders of the opposition movements to be executed. Protesters are being decried as agents of foreign powers and the media is under tight control with little access for foreign journalists. The Iranian regime is wheeling out all the same tired tactics that dictatorships do when their people revolt and cry "enough" !
Not only should we expect the Iranian regime to be more violent in its response but we should not be surprised when we hear them take actions which provoke conflict with Israel and the West. The regime will be desperate to create headlines for its people which give them something to rally around other than calls for proper democracy. It's in that context that Iran is now perhaps about to send ships through the Suez Canal.
The regime will figure that whatever the outcome it will gain. If Israel responds firmly and harshly then the regime will have a cause to rally the Iranian people. If Israel does not respond then Iran has shown that it can exert naval; power and influence in the Mediterranean right next door to Israel.
Feb 12, 2011
Egypt and Algeria : the same but different?
After the successful overthrow of Mubarak in Egypt there are now signs that Algeria is going to be the next Arab country to see mass demonstrations for democratic reform. Algeria like Egypt is a police state, riddled with corruption and governed under ong standing state of emergency laws. Today there are reports of a large anti-government protest in the capital Algeria.
Chanting "no to the police state" and "Bouteflika out" thousands of demonstrators were initially outnumbered by riot police and struggles broke out.
Pro-democracy demonstrators in Algeria can look to their colleagues in Egypt for lessons on how to conduct an inclusive non-violent revolution of course but the conditions in each country are perhaps not identical.
Unlike Egypt, Algeria has a recent history of extensive political violence and has in the past been on the brink of having a democratic system. In 1991 an Islamist group won the first round of democratic elections but the military stepped in and cancelled the next stage of the elections. The ensuing Islamist insurgency and Algerian civil war saw the death of around 160,000 people over the next decade.
In the context of such recent large scale and deadly internal conflict a generally restrained response from the regime is much less certain than it was in Egypt. The pro-democracy movement in Algeria will know that they have a huge hill to climb if they are to persuade the Algerian people to set aside their real fear of widespread political violence.
It will be interesting to see in the coming days if the pro-democracy movement in Algeria can create the sort of momentum that ultimately toppled the Mubarak regime.
Chanting "no to the police state" and "Bouteflika out" thousands of demonstrators were initially outnumbered by riot police and struggles broke out.
Pro-democracy demonstrators in Algeria can look to their colleagues in Egypt for lessons on how to conduct an inclusive non-violent revolution of course but the conditions in each country are perhaps not identical.
Unlike Egypt, Algeria has a recent history of extensive political violence and has in the past been on the brink of having a democratic system. In 1991 an Islamist group won the first round of democratic elections but the military stepped in and cancelled the next stage of the elections. The ensuing Islamist insurgency and Algerian civil war saw the death of around 160,000 people over the next decade.
In the context of such recent large scale and deadly internal conflict a generally restrained response from the regime is much less certain than it was in Egypt. The pro-democracy movement in Algeria will know that they have a huge hill to climb if they are to persuade the Algerian people to set aside their real fear of widespread political violence.
It will be interesting to see in the coming days if the pro-democracy movement in Algeria can create the sort of momentum that ultimately toppled the Mubarak regime.
Feb 11, 2011
The rebirth of Egypt
Truly amazing scenes of joyous celebration are still going on in Egypt following the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak a few hours ago. The Egyptian people have every cause to celebrate the overthrow of a dictator through a revolution that they conducted with great dignity and unity. They were an inspiration to many people.
It is easy living in a western democracy to fail to understand what it must be like for people who have lived under the rule of dictators for generations. The fear of the secret police has evaporated now in Egypt as the people place their faith in a temporary army council which, it seems, will run the country on an interim basis.
Given the conduct of the army so far there is hope that the army will stay true to the clear expressed will of the people and that it will help guide the country to free elections and democracy.
The members of the regime may yet try more tricks though. There will be those in Egypt who feel their livelihoods or wealth threatened by the collapse of the regime and they will look for ways to retain influence. It may not be impossible for example that we will see characters like Suleiman backed by the former ruling NDP party re-emerge and contest elections. These natural right wingers may yet find a future accommodation with equally right wing conservative Muslim religious groups. That seems an unlikely pairing in the short to medium term but not so unlikely in the longer term.
The future political balance of the country is coming under the control of the Egyptian people now - which is where it should be. Their choices will have consequences for relations within the Middle East and beyond. Whatever those effects are though other countries will happily now at least need to deal with Egypt in future as a fellow democratic state - a nation reborn in a January revolution.
It is easy living in a western democracy to fail to understand what it must be like for people who have lived under the rule of dictators for generations. The fear of the secret police has evaporated now in Egypt as the people place their faith in a temporary army council which, it seems, will run the country on an interim basis.
Given the conduct of the army so far there is hope that the army will stay true to the clear expressed will of the people and that it will help guide the country to free elections and democracy.
The members of the regime may yet try more tricks though. There will be those in Egypt who feel their livelihoods or wealth threatened by the collapse of the regime and they will look for ways to retain influence. It may not be impossible for example that we will see characters like Suleiman backed by the former ruling NDP party re-emerge and contest elections. These natural right wingers may yet find a future accommodation with equally right wing conservative Muslim religious groups. That seems an unlikely pairing in the short to medium term but not so unlikely in the longer term.
The future political balance of the country is coming under the control of the Egyptian people now - which is where it should be. Their choices will have consequences for relations within the Middle East and beyond. Whatever those effects are though other countries will happily now at least need to deal with Egypt in future as a fellow democratic state - a nation reborn in a January revolution.
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