Jun
08

Barack Obama seeks to clarify remarks on private sector

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney pounces on statement to attack president for being 'out of touch'

Barack Obama declared on Friday that "the private sector is doing fine," drawing instant criticism from Republicans who said it showed a lack of understanding of the nation's economic woes. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney responded, "Is he really that out of touch?"

Reacting to the Republican attack, the president later sought to clarify his remarks, saying that it was "absolutely clear that the economy is not doing fine." He said that while there had been some "good momentum" in the private sector, public sector growth lagged behind, making it imperative that Congress act on his proposals to boost state and local government jobs.

It was the latest episode in a week of difficult turns for Obama's re-election prospects, including last Friday's report that the unemployment rate had risen slightly to 8.2% in May as job creation had slowed, and new signs that the European debt crisis was hurting the US economy.

The furore over Obama's remarks on the private sector overshadowed his wider message at a White House news conference. Accusing Republicans of pursuing policies that would weaken the economy, Obama urged passage of legislation that he said would create jobs, and that Republicans have long blocked.

The president said that if Congress had passed his jobs bill from last year, "we'd be on track to have a million more Americans working this year, the unemployment rate would be lower, our economy would be stronger."

"Of course Congress refused to pass this jobs plan in full," he said. "They left most of the jobs plan just sitting there, and in light of the headwinds we are facing right now I urge them to reconsider because there are steps we can take right now."

The president said businesses had created 4.3m jobs during the past 27 months.

"The private sector is doing fine," Obama said. Economic weakness is coming from state and local government, with job cuts initiated by "governors or mayors who are not getting the kind of help that they have in the past from the federal government and who don't have the same kind of flexibility as the federal government in dealing with fewer revenues coming in."

Romney, holding a campaign event in Iowa, said Obama's remark was "defining what it means to be detached and out of touch with the American people." He said the comment "is going to go down in history as an extraordinary miscalculation and misunderstanding."

But while "doing fine" is in the eye of the beholder, Obama was correct that the job picture in the private sector is brighter than in the public sector. Since the recession officially ended in June 2009, private companies have added 3.1m jobs. Largely because of cuts at the state and local level, governments have slashed 601,000 jobs over the same period. According to the government, corporate profits have risen 58% since mid-2009.

Even so, by historical standards, private job gains in the last three months have been weak after such a deep recession.

Obama pressed Congress to enact parts of his jobs agenda, including proposals to help state governments rehire teachers, police officers and firefighters.

"I cannot give you a good reason why Congress would not act on these items other than politics," Obama said after being asked to respond to the Republican criticism.

Yet his comments about the strength of private sector hiring were bound to be replayed in television ads meant to discredit his message on the economy, the top issue for voters.

Seconds after Obama made the remark, Republicans circulated the quote on Twitter and Romney seized on it about an hour later after meeting farmers.

Behind the scenes, Romney aides worked furiously to push what they hope could be a shift in the campaign. Many remember four years ago, when Republican nominee John McCain asserted that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" in the midst of a meltdown. Obama's team went after McCain then and voters were left wondering what the Republican was thinking.

Obama campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt said Obama had taken office "in the midst of a severe economic crisis and fought back against that to the point where businesses have now created more than 4.3m private sector jobs. The president has always been clear that we need to do more than recover from the recession."

Obama and his campaign did some manoeuvring to come up with their figure of 4.3m new private jobs. They counted from the low point for the private sector, in February 2010, ignoring huge job losses in the first year of his presidency. Counting from the end of the recession, private-sector job growth was considerably smaller.

Adding to a difficult week for Obama and his fellow Democrats, Wisconsin's Republican governor, Scott Walker, turned back a recall movement, and Romney overtook Obama in May fundraising.

Romney's campaign and the Republican National Committee said they had raised more than $76m combined in May, surpassing the $60m haul by the Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee.

Barack ObamaMitt RomneyUnited StatesUS politicsUS economyEconomicsDemocratsRepublicansguardian.co.uk

Jun
08

Spain bailout terms ‘to be agreed within a week’

Urgency reflects growing consensus that Spanish collapse might start chain reaction that could topple Italy and destroy the euro

The first planks in a dramatic bailout for Spain will be bolted together this weekend, with a final figure on the size of the rescue package to be ready within a week, according to sources in Brussels and Madrid.

The moves towards bailing out the finance sector of the eurozone's fourth biggest economy reflect a growing consensus that a Spanish collapse must be averted to prevent a devastating chain reaction that could bring down Italy and destroy the single currency. There were fears that this would spark a global downturn extending to the US and China, and both countries urged Europe to move swiftly to fix its long-running debt crisis.

President Barack Obama called on European leaders on Friday to strengthen their banks and urged Greece to remain in the eurozone. "There is a path out of this challenge," Obama told reporters at the White House. "These decisions are in the hands of Europe's leaders; they understand the urgent need to act. There are specific steps they can take right now to prevent the situation from getting worse. One of those steps is taking clear action as soon as possible to inject capital into weak banks."

With fears that Greek voters may add further fuel to the fire by electing a government that will lead them out of the euro on 17 June, Spain hopes to have a final figure ready by next Friday, sources in Madrid said.

Senior finance officials from around Europe are due to start drawing up detailed plans this weekend on how to shore up Spain's banks in a so-called "bailout lite" that would be smaller and less onerous than those of Portugal, Greece or Ireland. Spain must formally request help and last night Vitor Constancio, vice-president of the European Central Bank, told Portuguese radio that Spain was expected to do so "soon", according to Reuters.

Prime minister Mariano Rajoy's conservative government insists that a full and final figure on its needs can only follow independent valuations of the country's banking assets. The deadline for delivery of those estimates is 21 June, when eurozone finance ministers are due to meet, but the Spanish government is pressing auditors to provide them by the end of the week.

"No decisions have been made," Spain's deputy prime minister, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, said . "The government will declare its position once it knows the estimates."

A first indication would come by Monday, she said, with an International Monetary Fund report on Spain. That is expected to say that Spanish banks need a capital injection of €40bn (£32bn) and may be considered sufficient for a preliminary bailout request over the weekend, especially as the government has already seen the figures.

It remained unclear, however, when an announcement would come and how detailed it would be.

A Spanish bailout will almost certainly be targeted directly at its banks, avoiding a wider crisis that could prevent Spain borrowing on the markets to fund government spending.

Payment would probably be made by the European Financial Stability Facility to Spain's bank restructuring fund, known as the Frob. Speculation about the amount needed varies wildly. Three former savings banks, including the recently nationalised Bankia, have already asked for €28bn.

Spain's senior banker, Santander boss Emilio Botin, has said €40bn would be enough, but a second recession in three years will inflict further damage on a banking system already struggling to digest vast amounts of toxic real estate left over from a burst housing bubble.

The ratings agency Fitch estimates Spain's banks need additional capital of between €50bn and €100bn, though part of this could be covered by the banks themselves, with stronger banks such as Santander and BBVA avoiding state aid. Neighbouring Portugal, which has a much smaller economy, accepted a €78bn euro bailout.

It would be the first time that a mechanism aimed directly at a national bank restructuring fund has been used and it was unclear what European officials would demand in return.

Experts said Rajoy's attempts to wriggle out of external control of Spain's economy were doomed to failure. "The terms and conditions are going to want to see a clear path to restore growth and structural budget balance. That will include structural reforms and fiscal measures," said Luis Garicano, of the London School of Economics. "But I guess they will try to find a face-saving way of doing this."

"There will have to be conditions, otherwise what will the Germans say to their voters?" said Santiago Carbó, of Granada University. "They won't be as detailed as for Greece or Portugal, but they won't just be about restructuring the financial sector."

Pension reforms, increases in sales tax, a pruning of Spain's three million-strong civil service and further pressure on the government to slash its deficit with austerity measures could be on the list of demands. Concerns about the people running Spain's former savings banks, whose loans to property developers and speculators have poisoned the whole financial system, may also see demands that political appointees be removed from boards.

Spaniards are deeply pro-European and were not thought likely to turn their rage against the EU despite the prospect of even more suffering. A recent poll said 62% per cent already expected a bailout.

Spain has repeatedly warned that its economy is too big to fail without bringing down the euro.

Ministers have said the euro's fate will be played out in Spain and Italy over the coming weeks, while challenging European colleagues to agree a plan for greater banking and fiscal union in order to calm market pressure.

With European institutions and other countries now increasingly in favour of such a union, pressure on Spain's borrowing costs has relaxed over the past week despite a sudden downgrade by the Fitch ratings agency on Thursday.

Unemployment in Spain is already at 24% and a douple-dip recession looks likely to last until well into next year, bringing more misery.

The European commission said Spain had made no request for aid, but a spokesman added that if it did, the eurozone was ready to help.

"If such a request were to be made, the instruments are there, ready to be used, in agreement with the guidelines agreed in the past," spokesman Amadeu Altafaj said. "We are not at that point."

Germany's chancellor, Angela Merkel, denied pressing Spain and said it was up to Rajoy to request a bailout. "It's down to the individual countries to turn to us," she said. "That has not happened so far."

Unnamed German officials told Reuters, however, that an agreement needed to be hammered out before the Greek election next weekend.

SpainEuropeEurozone crisisEuropean UnionEuropean monetary unionEconomicsBankingEuropean banksFinancial crisisFinancial sectorEuroGiles TremlettIan Traynorguardian.co.uk

Jun
08

Clinton Cards loses 400 jobs as more stores close

Some of the 330 units not part of purchase by US firm American Greetings are closed

More than 400 people lost their jobs yesterday after another wave of store closures at Clinton Cards.

The group – the UK's biggest specialist cards retailer – went into administration last month, although 397 of its stores were sold to Ohio-based American Greetings on Thursday, saving 4,500 jobs.

Administrators at Zolfo Cooper closed 43 of the 330 stores not included in the deal, leading to 408 redundancies. They have already closed 44 sites last month but are looking for buyers for the remaining stores to try to save nearly 3,000 full and part-time jobs.

The ailing high street retailer, which operated the Clintons and Birthdays brands, had nearly 800 stores and employed more than 8,000 staff in total.

Clinton CardsRetail industryRecessionEconomicsguardian.co.uk

Jun
08

Spain’s savings banks’ culture of greed, cronyism and political meddling

The behaviour of executives at Spain's savings banks or cajas is now coming under scrutiny as the sector prepares to seek taxpayer bailouts

As European taxpayers prepare to rescue Spain's ailing banks, anti-corruption prosecutors, academics and regional parliaments are uncovering a tale of greed, cronyism and political meddling that has brought many of the country's leading savings institutions to their knees.

With the fourth biggest lender, Bankia, demanding €19bn (£15.4bn) and authorities now admitting a further €9bn is needed by two former savings banks – CatalunyaCaixa and Novagalicia – concern is focusing on both the mushrooming bill and the way banks have been run.

Court investigators are also scrutinising payments to former senior executives and the part-flotation of Bankia, in which 350,000 small investors saw two-thirds of their money wiped out.

The bill that Europe's rescue funds must pay has been increased by the multi–million euro payoffs taken by some senior executives shortly before their banks collapsed and decisions taken by unqualified board members who admit they were incapable of analysing the banks' books. Boards were stuffed with political placements or people who had little idea about banking – including, in one case, a supermarket checkout worker.

They often rubber-stamped decisions. In some cajas they were rewarded with well-paid positions on the boards of subsidiary companies as well as with luxury foreign trips and soft loans.

Trips to India, China or Chicago and the hundreds of millions of euros in loans to executives, board members and their families formed part of the gravy train of political favouritism and cronyism.

Chairmen were often unqualified politicians, with academic investigators finding a close relationship between the size of a bank's bad loan book and the inexperience, lack of qualifications and degree of politicisation of the chairman.

A committee in the Valencia regional parliament is looking into how the Caja de Ahorros del Mediterraneo (CAM) – described by the Bank of Spain as "the worst of the worst" – collapsed last July.

"Did I check through the accounts?" asked José Enrique Garrigós, a small businessman who was a CAM board member. "Look, I'm an average businessman, I don't have the time or the training to do that."

He said that other board members at the savings bank, based in Alicante,, eastern Spain, included a checkout worker and a sociologist. A dance teacher, an artist and a university psychologist were also reportedly on the board.

"The things we have been hearing are surreal," said Mireia Mollà, a regional MP for the leftwing Compromis party. "We still don't know what payments senior management took with them when they abandoned the ship."

Some board members have suggested that minutes of meetings may have been tampered with. They question, for example, whether they were ever really consulted on key matters such as executive pay or warnings from the Bank of Spain that the caja was in dire straits.

"I didn't see the official minutes as the law requires," said Jesús Navarro, another board member. "Except on a computer screen."

AAnalysing the accounts would have required her to be a superwoman, complained one CAM board member. "I didn't have sufficient financial, legal or accountancy skill… board members were not legally required to have any sort of qualifications or experience," agreed fellow board member Juan Pacheco.

This left control of CAM in the hands of chairman Modesto Crespo, director general Roberto López Abad and a few senior executives, they said, with the board effectively rubberstamping their decisions.

"There was barely any debate and votes were … unanimous," said Pacheco.

"One board meeting a year was held abroad," said Navarro. "I refused to go on principle." But he admitted attending a meeting hundreds of miles away in San Sebastian with some 50 other people: "Obviously I went with my wife, and the rest of the board took their partners too."

Over six years, board members and senior executives – or their families – received €161m in loans, often at soft interest rates, according the Workers Commissions trade union. Senior executives doubled their salaries over the same period.

Cajas as a whole gave senior management a 50% pay rise over that period, though profits only rose 7%, the union said.

Mireia Mollà, a regional MP for the leftwing Compromis party, said a common way of getting round limits on paying board members at the not-for-profit CAM was to give them well-paid places on boards of companies owned – or part-owned – by the bank.

LLocal politicians appointed many board members and used cajas to fund pet projects.

"The use of cajas as the banks of regional governments is part of the origin of the problem," said Alvaro Anchuelo, an MP for the small, centrist Popular and Democratic Union party. "They used them to finance airports with no flights and theme parks that failed."

Two days before the collapse of CAM, the bank reportedly loaned €200m to the cash-strapped regional government of Valencia – run by prime minister Mariano Rajoy's People's party, which also controlled most board appointments.

Part of CAM's senior management had opted for early retirement as the bank headed towards disaster, with six members, including director-general López Abad, estimated to have left with payoffs jointly totalling more than €10m.

Similar stories of multimillion euro payments are emerging from other cajas, which have now been forced into takeovers or mergers to form commercial banks – with the savings banks as shareholders.

Bankia, for example, paid executive Matías Amat €6.2 m for taking early retirement. Bancaja, one of the seven cajas that merged to form Bankia, reportedly owes executive Aurelio Izquierdo €14m.

CAM was nationalised and sold for €1 to Banco Sabadell after receiving €3bn from Spain's bank restructuring fund – which now looks incapable of meeting the financing of other former savings banks.

Attempts to investigate Bankia have been blocked by the People's party in the national parliament and the Madrid regional assembly, but Spain's attorney general has admitted that it is under investigation. Twelve of the 45 cajas that existed three years ago are reportedly being looked at by anti-corruption investigators.

On Thursday, the Catalan parliament agreed to set up a committee to look at banking problems as a whole.

"If we really knew the truth about Bankia and the other cajas, the two big parties – the People's party and the socialists – would explode," said Arsenio Escolar, editor of the 20 Minutos newspaper.

SpainEuropeEurozone crisisEuropean UnionEuropean monetary unionEconomicsBankingEuropean banksFinancial crisisFinancial sectorEuroGiles Tremlettguardian.co.uk

Jun
08

Greek debt crisis: chronic drug shortage risking lives of the sick

Patients groups' warning comes as pharmaceutical companies become increasingly reluctant to deliver drugs on credit

Clutching a prescription and a ticket numbered 192, Aris stood on the pavement and waited his turn at the state pharmacy. When speaking of his daughter, whose multiple sclerosis medication he had come to collect, the 74-year-old was short on words and visibly moved. When asked about the drug shortages afflicting his country, his reserve melted away and in its place came rage.

"I was told that at some point there would be a problem," he said of the drugs that can cost up to €2,500 (£2,000) for "a tiny box of 22 pills".

"From what I can see, everyone is going to have a problem," added the retired electrician. "If they don't pay the suppliers, how are they going to bring drugs into the country?"

This time, Aris walked away with his daughter's medication – giving as he went the traditional Greek gesture of insult, the moutza, to the "thieves and fraudsters" of the state. But not everyone is as lucky. On Thursday, the multiple sclerosis patients' association warned that if the problems persisted, sufferers could be "led to their deaths". Associations representing cancer, diabetes and kidney disease patients have also spoken of the gravity of the situation. "Finding medicines," said the MS association, "has become a marathon for people with chronic illnesses."

In the Greece of today, a country gripped by economic collapse and paralysed by political uncertainty, more and more users of expensive medicines are finding a healthcare system that had problems even before the eurozone crisis hit is close to disaster. Medicine shortages, reported by Greek health workers and patients for months, show signs of worsening as pharmaceutical companies become increasingly reluctant to deliver drugs on credit to a state whose debts to them are predicted to top €1.5bn by the end of this month. Public hospitals, which have had budgets cut by 40% over the past two years of austerity, do not have the money to stock all the drugs they are expected to, and struggle to pay suppliers – even as demand for their services increases.

But the problem does not stop there. Even if the medicines are theoretically available, they are not always accessible. Commercial pharmacies, which claim they are owed €540m by the EOPYY, the main state health insurance fund, are insisting customers pay up front for medicines. For many residents of a country in its fifth year of recession, that is simply not possible. State pharmacies providing the most expensive drugs for free or at a fraction of the cost do exist – but there are only 10 in the whole of Greece.

Konstantinos Lourantas, chair of the Parmacists' Association of the Attica region in and around the capital, announced on Thursday that his group was opening a bank account into which philanthropic individuals could make donations for expensive drugs. But pharmacists, he added, could not continue "replacing the state".

"We're in debt up to here," he said, gesturing at his neck and demanding urgent repayment from the state, which has repaid €200m of this year's debt but still owes €70m. Caretaker health minister Christos Kittas has said that, by election day, the state will have paid €310m to the fund, and €130m to public hospitals. But by then, say critics, it could be too little, too late. According to a list brandished by Lourantas, 84 patients in the region had reported medicine shortages over the course of three days at the end of May and beginning of June. As Greece imports most of its medicines, most of the pharmaceutical companies with drugs on the list were foreign. Fifteen of the 33 medicines were for cancer.

That came as no surprise to Panos, a 44-year-old teacher who was diagnosed with stomach cancer five years ago and was told last year it had come back, and spread to his lungs. Fellow patients have talked of shortages "since January", he said, although he has not encountered them himself, a fact he puts down to receiving his treatment in hospital rather than at home. A friend's father was searching for two medicines to treat his prostate cancer, but could find neither in commercial pharmacies, he said.

While he may have escaped the shortages, Panos, who did not want to give his surname, is feeling the effects of EOPYY's debts. Three years ago, he was refunded the cost of an MRI scan within four months. In September he had another scan, paid €1,500, but is still waiting to be reimbursed.

When EOPYY was formed six months ago from a number of health insurance funds, it inherited many of their debts as well. This week, Greece's caretaker health ministry struck a deal with pharmaceutical companies to deliver a fresh supply of some of the most expensive medicines to EOPYY pharmacies, provoking a rush of patients . Health minister Christos Kittas promised to ensure a steady flow of medicines and said the state had to put patients "above everything". But, as well as bringing some relief to those in need, the provision caused frustration among many who left empty-handed.

Exiting the pharmacy on crutches, Mariana, who said she was on dialysis, had been told her insurance fund was not yet part of EOPYY, which covers around 9 million of Greece's 11 million people. She was told she would have to go elsewhere for her €200 medication. "I have to go to a regular pharmacy but pay upfront. And it's a lot of money," she said. Of some 1,700 people who had come to look for medicines at the pharmacy by late afternoon, at least 500 left emptyhanded, an employee said. "There was crying and screaming and moments of real tension," she said.

Kalliope Metaxa, a retired paediatrician and volunteer for the Kefi cancer patients' association, said fears were mounting despite the fresh supplies. "Does EOPYY have the money to procure more?" she asked. And what would happen after the elections of 17 June? "God knows." She is convinced, however, the two parties that have dominated Greek politics for decades, Nea Demokratia and Pasok, do not deserve to be returned to power. "Everyone knows they sank the country," she said.

One thing everyone agrees on is that the political limbo resulting from the election six weeks ago is only making the situation worse. At a press conference called by the Attica pharmacists, a spokesman for the association of kidney disease sufferers had two requests: that pharmacies start to provide drugs on credit once more if the state repays its outstanding debts from March, and that politicians form a coherent leadership in the immediate aftermath of the forthcoming vote. "The president," he said, "should lock them in a room until they come up with a government."

GreeceEuropeEurozone crisisEuropean UnionEuropean monetary unionEconomicsBankingEuropean banksFinancial crisisFinancial sectorEuroHealthPharmaceuticals industryLizzy Daviesguardian.co.uk

Jun
08

The markets this week: from high hopes to default caution

As political turmoil continues in the eurozone and solutions fail to materialise, the wait-and-see brigade are setting the pace

In what is starting to become an increasingly regular pattern, the markets spent the first half of the week soaring on high hopes of solid political solutions, only to fall back to its default position of caution when none was forthcoming.

The FTSE had a short week, meaning it had a lot of catching up to do, which it did with aplomb, jumping more than 2% on Wednesday – the biggest one-day rise of the year.

Excitement grew that the Spanish banking crisis could see a resolution, the Bank of England or US Fed would introduce more quantitative easing, and the eurozone interest rates would be cut.

In the end none of the above occurred and the markets had to make do with the wait-and-see brigade maintaining its all too familiar pace, sending the FTSE, French CAC, German DAX and Italian FTSE MIB closing lower.

The FTSE 100 was boosted initially by strong rises from the mining companies, especially after raw material lover China cut its interest rates, spurring hopes for more spending.

But by yesterday realisation dawned that China may be in trouble if it has to cut rates for the first time since 2008, marking Vedanta, down 50p, 5%, to 933.5p, Rio Tinto, down 146p, 4.8%, to £33.39 and Eurasian down 17.4p, 3.9%, to 424.3p, the biggest fallers.

Catalytic converter makers Johnson Matthey provided some much needed cheer to investors, reporting better than expected results and announcing a 100p a share special dividend – the first in its nearly 200-year history. Bosses also increased the final dividend by 20% to 55p, leaving shares closing up 196p on the week at £23.03.

Royal Bank of Scotland's shares closed up 20p on the week at 220p, in its first few days of trading following a stock consolidation. The bank swapped one new share for 10 old ones to make the share price look more at home in the FTSE 100 and avoid the volatility that comes from what was starting to look like a penny share company.

It seems to be working, but the target price for the taxpayer to break even on their 84% investment now looks even further away at 500p instead of 50p at the old price.

Security group G4S held its annual meeting in secret this week amid protests at some of their practices, with some believing the board could be the next for the Shareholder Spring.

In the end the G4S board managed to control its shareholders, suffering the most minor of rebellions.

More troubling times were felt at pan-European publisher Mecom, which announced its second profit warning in as many months, sending shares down nearly 50%, closing at 75.5p. They had been as high as 230p in January.

Non-executive director Michael Hutchinson attempted to reassure the market, buying shares worth nearly £30,000. Unfortunately, none of the executive directors followed suit.

This week saw confirmation that hedge fund operator Man Group will be dumped from the FTSE 100 on 18 June and replaced by engineers Babcock in a reversal of the old adage: "Out with the old, in with the new".

It wasn't all bad news for Man, closing the week at 78.5p, getting an upgrade to "buy" from Citigroup. However, the reasoning from analyst Haley Tam was a back-handed compliment, suggesting "performance cannot get sustainably worse from here".

Stock marketsFTSEMarket turmoilEconomicsGlobal economyEurozone crisisBankingEuropean banksFinancial crisisFinancial sectorEuroEuropeSimon Nevilleguardian.co.uk

Jun
08

Spain’s 90s greed is at the root of its banking crisis | Robert Tornabell

A collective madness over property speculation made us poor and jeopardised our future. Spain must secure a partial bailout

Spain's banking crisis did not come out of the blue. In the 1990s the Spanish suffered a bout of collective madness. Interest rates fell from 14% (with the peseta) to 4% (with the euro) in a matter of weeks. In 1998 the centre-right government passed a law that significantly increased the amount of land for development. Developers got rich, selling the idea that everyone was going to win because property would always go up – never down – in value. German banks financed Spain's savings and commercial banks, which needed extra funds for high-risk mortgages. Greed made us rich for a while – but then it made us poor, and jeopardised our future.

This is now a country with a million unsold properties; hundreds of housing developments left unfinished by construction companies and real estate promoters, especially along the Mediterranean coast but also in city centres; 4.7 million people unemployed and an unemployment rate of 24.5% overall, and 50% in the 18–25 age bracket – and that's without including the student population. The situation of "extreme difficulty" described this week by the prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, has at its root the flats that the banks accumulated when people started defaulting on their mortgages.

As in other countries that experienced bubbles, such as the US and Ireland, it began with a fondness for real estate speculation and a belief that property values would never cease to rise. To be sure, the euro was an incentive for foreign investors eager for a piece of the real estate pie, but this could not stop the bubble from bursting and housing prices from dropping. We should have distinguished currency value from property value; some foreign investors preferred to invest in euros instead of risking their money in countries such as the Balkans.

All of these bubbles were like fires lit by greed: you could buy a flat on the Mediterranean coast (or in a city) for £100,000 and sell it the next day for £150,000; by the end of the month it was worth £250,000. And meanwhile, the flat, purchased off-plan, was still being built. The last buyer still believed that prices would never stop spiralling upward. All this began in 1998, and the bubble burst in 2007. Nine years of speculative madness (10, in Japan).

Banks have now discovered that their balance sheets were filled with non-performing loans and toxic assets: urban land, unfinished housing developments, unpaid real estate loans to developers, and so on.

The total assets of Spain's banking system amount to about €3tn. The net amount of toxic assets – unsold real estate valued market to market – is not known for certain. We do know, however, that, bar the country's three largest banks (BBVA, Santander and CaixaBank) and a handful of medium-sized commercial banks, the system needs to be recapitalised. Delinquency rates are increasing, to 9.5% on average and as high as 19% at some banks. The banks need to increase their tangible capital (equity) to €100bn, and the government does not have enough funds for a tough restructuring or a bailout (of the kind applied swiftly by Gordon Brown in the UK four years ago).

At a recent press conference, Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank chief, insisted that the ECB would not force any country – a reference to Spain, no doubt – to request a bailout or a full intervention. Showing his sense of practicality, he urged all countries to assess their particular financial needs and act accordingly. He also pointed out – in an oblique reference to calls for the ECB to once again intervene in the sovereign debt market by buying Spanish government bonds to drive up prices and bring down the risk premium relative to 10-year German bonds – that it is not the ECB's place to take on roles best played by others.

A less drastic eleventh-hour proposal now appears feasible: the European stability mechanism could provide support to Spanish banks that require recapitalisation, but the Spanish treasury would be responsible for taking measures to guarantee these bailout funds. As this would be only a partial bailout, Spain would not have to meet the stringent obligations imposed on the three countries bailed out to date: Ireland, Greece and Portugal.

Just days after the Spanish finance minister declared that the markets were closed to Spain, he managed to raise over €2bn from the bond markets – though at a higher interest rate, not a good sign. The main problem right now is politics. Spain's centre-right government has been delaying the inevitable: asking the ECB and the Eurogroup of finance ministers for ESM funds to cover a partial bailout of the country's under-capitalised banks. Tomorrow's conference call among eurozone members to discuss a possible bailout must bear fruit. No less than €100bn is needed, at least according to two foreign audit firms. Germany, it seems, opposes this kind of bailout because the ESM requires new rules, to be approved, possibly, in the next few months.

The referendum and general elections in Greece may be highly contagious to Spain's banking system. Spain could be forced to pay an even higher interest rate, and its banks would not be able to afford to take on debt. Eventually, the same could happen in Italy. In this country we favour a mutual eurobond system, a new European fiscal compact and a real European banking system – that is, more euro and fewer national markets. But our politicians need to ensure this comes about as swiftly as possible.

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SpainEuropeEuropean UnionEurozone crisisEuropean monetary unionEconomicsBankingEuropean banksFinancial crisisEuroRobert Tornabellguardian.co.uk

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