
AP / Rick Bowmer
The release of emergency oil reserves by the IEA which sent shock waves throughout the oil and foreign exchange market is set to be reviewed by the IEA at the end of this week. It is estimated that there could be another such release within this year at some point. There are some countries are either hesitant or in direct opposition against this measure by the IEA at least for now.
No matter what the IEA decides, the United States is can release more oil to the market from its strategic reserves. The United States was responsible for the release of half of the 60 million barrels of oil released to the oil market. In the long run of IEA for the last 37 years, this was only the third time that it announced the release of its emergency oil reserves. This measure by the IEA caused the oil market a sell-off of about 6%.
The US dollar index rose by 0.9 % emphasising the negative relation between oil prices and the US currency. The oil prices have since then recovered. Brent crude oil rose to 116$ per barrel as opposed to the 114$ per barrel prior to the release of emergency reserves. For most of the year 2009 while the world was emerging from recession the negative correlation between the US currency and oil prices was sustained. An economic boost was provided by availability of cheap money to the world economy. This created a frenzy of buying in dollar denominated assets while weakening the US dollar. Oil became cheap to other currency holders opposed to US currency holders.
The OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) has cause to raise oil prices to protect its dollar income, which it may choose to do against a weakened dollar. The QE2 (US quantitative easing) aided in maintaining a sustained market oil market in the second round. The second round commenced last year in the final quarter and gained impetus after Libyan oil supply was halted due to the civil war.
Ben Bernanke, the chairman of Federal Reserve Bank has proposed further quantitative easing if economic growth and inflation has slackened. This move could further weaken the US dollar. The negative relation between US dollar and oil prices could be curtailed by the fear that rising oil prices is lowering demand particularly in the US which is the largest world market for oil but constitutes a frail economy.