Strong signs ahead for shares after gloom
- From: News Limited newspapers
- November 01, 2010
- Share market is doing well
- Double-dip recession avoided
- Big miners post big gains since September
- Markets: Stocks, commodities, currencies
THE share market's two bogey months have passed without the dreaded crash and double-dip global recession that some were predicting, writes Anthony Keane.
The All Ordinaries index has climbed 6.6 per cent in the past two months, and a growing number of forecasters expect Aussie domestic stocks to grow faster in the future than shares in other countries shares in the future.
A Your Money analysis of Australia's 20 largest companies has found that the two big miners, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, have led the charge since the start of September, climbing 13 per cent and 20 per cent respectively.
Financial stocks were mixed, while big names Telstra and Westfield went backwards, albeit not too badly.
Ord Minnett senior strategist Russell Lander says stocks have benefited from rising commodity prices, China's economy not falling over as some people had feared, and a solid recent profit reporting season.
"Most companies were guarded on 2010-11 forecasts but very few have downdhgraded," he says.
Lander says Australia is surrounded by countries with a "high-growth trajectory".
"The growth story is not just China. It's Vietnam, South Korea, India; but it's not the United States."
"We now have the lowest gearing for the corporate sector since the 1950s. The mining sector's virtually got no debt now. The corporate sector looks in pretty good shape, and you won't get capital issues that dilute the value of your shares," he says.
A good sign for Australian shares has been renewed interest in companies from private equity investors, Lander says.
"Private equity ought to be the most acute valuer of stocks because they live or die by them. They're really now saying 'wake up, it doesn't look too bad after all'," he says.
Fidelity head of Australian equities Paul Taylor says Australian shares' price-to-earnings ratios a key method of valuing stocks are still well below their 20-year median.
He does not expect a double-dip global recession, but warns we are in a "lower-growth world".
The US Government is giving more money to its people than it is receiving in taxes. "They're trying to spend their way out," Taylor says.
Our market has been a world beater excelled over the past 110 years, he says, with average yearly returns of 7.5 per cent. Compare this with the US (5.88 per cent) Britain (5.28 per cent) and Germany (2.98 per cent).
The outlook for Australian shares is more positive than other countries because of structural issues such as good population growth, low-cost resources production, and changing consumer patterns that fuel growing demand for our raw materials.
"Structural growth will rule in a lower-growth world," Taylor says. "The share market's valuing everything on a low-growth multiple, but when you look below the surface you are getting real pockets of growth."
It is exactly three years since Aussie shares reached their peak of 6873.2 points, on November 1, 2007.
Taylor says it typically takes three to six years to recover all losses after a major share market downturn.
"You do actually get those losses back," he says.
"If previous cycles are a guide to this cycle, there's still a lot of upside left."
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