QR National $6 billion share float receives conflicting reviews from analysts
- From: National Features
- October 25, 2010
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The float is the biggest since Telstra was privatised / Supplied Source: Supplied
THE second-biggest share market float in Australia's history, coal rail freight business QR National, is getting mixed reviews from analysts.
The QR National $6 billion float - being sold off by the Queensland Government - will be the largest listing since Telstra was privatised in three stages from 1997.
But not even the best adviser, with good intentions, can tell you how this business will trade on day one, let alone 10 years from now.
The 145-year-old business is being sold as a growth stock, with a dividend yield of only 3.3 per cent. Investors chasing security and interest could do better with a term deposit or savings account paying up to 6.5 per cent.
The maximum price for retail investors will be $2.80 a share and there will be a loyalty bonus of one for 20 shares (one for 15 for Queenslanders), if you hold shares for a year.
Greg Fraser, of Fat Prophets, says the final offer price is yet to be determined.
QRN has a strong growth profile in its coal haulage business, but faces increasing competition from Asciano and possibly the coalmining companies themselves. Even pricing QRN at the lower end of the indicative range makes the stock appear expensive.
Independent analyst Roger Montgomery says it is not a high-quality company.
The yield is miserly, so they are pitching it as a growth story, he says.
Jamie Nicol, of Dalton Nicol Reid , says QRN looks expensive on a price-earnings valuation basis, and the risk is China falling over.
Burrell Stockbroking, which receives no remuneration other than a stamping fee on applications, believes the investment case for QRN is balanced.
Investors who acknowledge the Asian growth story, and believe in the ability of management to align the performance of its coal freight network with industry best practice, should feel QRN presents a genuine investment case, Burrell analyst Robert Boyd says.
But for conservative investors targeting yield from their investments, QR National is not likely to be particularly exciting.
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