Monday, April 18, 2011

Trendsetter

 -- by Horatio Algeranon

A trend of one
Is friend to none
Until the others
Think it's fun.

But fun it is
Indeed pure bliss
To jump into
The great abyss.


Even lemmings have trendsetters.

For context, read Cherries Jubilee and Cherry Cobbler Recipe.



Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Half Life

-- Horatio Algeranon

Half a life 
Is not that long
Before it's mostly 
Up and gone.

If you can't see it, 
You won't feel it
It's not a good thing 
To reveal it.



Has BP Really Cleaned Up the Gulf Oil Spill? "Officially, marine life is returning to normal in the Gulf of Mexico, but dead animals are still washing up on beaches – and one scientist believes the damage runs much deeper" (by Suzanne Goldenberg, Guardian)
"On her descent to a location 10 miles from BP's well in December, [Marine scientist Dr. Samantha] Joye landed on an ocean floor coated with dark brown muck about 4cm deep. Thick ropes of slime draped across coral like cobwebs in a haunted house. The few creatures that remained alive, such as the crabs, were too listless to flee. "Most of the time when you go at them with a submarine, they just run," she says. "They weren't running, they were just sitting there, dazed and stupefied. They certainly weren't behaving as normal." Her conclusion? "I think it is not beyond the imagination that 50% of the oil is still floating around out there."
At a time when the White House, Congress, government officials and oil companies are trying to put the oil disaster behind them, that is not the message from the deep that people are waiting to hear. Joye's data – and an outspoken manner for a scientist – have pitted her against the Obama administration's scientists as well as other independent scientists who have come to different conclusions about the state of the Gulf. She is consumed by the idea that she – and other colleagues – are not really being heard.
////////// End of Guardian quotes

Marine scientist Dr. Samantha Joye has spent nearly half her life* studying the Gulf Of Mexico. After many others decamped when the BP well was "capped", she stayed to study the oil's long term impacts -- despite the fact that some had assured her that the oil was mostly gone, or at least no longer a significant threat (read Mission Accomplished). 
*And you thought "Half Life" was a reference to the Japanese nuclear disaster, didn't you now?  ~@:>
Among other things, Dr. Joye's team of scientists were the first to document the presence of a large "oil plume" during the ongoing BP oilcano. Dr. Joye (and others) also documented the presence of an oil layer on the sea floor in the months after the well was "capped".

//////////////////////////////
While it might be completely unrelated, in recent months, anomalous numbers of dead dolphins and sea turtles (some of them contaminated with oil) have been washing up on the beaches of the Gulf Coast. It's still too early to say why they died (that requires autopsies and even then we may never know for sure)  but the occurrence is nonetheless out of the ordinary.  

"Dead baby bottlenose dolphins are continuing to wash up in record numbers on the shores of the Gulf of Mexico, and scientists do not know why.
Since February 2010 to April 2011, 406 dolphins were found either stranded or reported dead offshore.

The occurrence has prompted the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to designate these deaths as an "unusual mortality event" or UME
Similar to the dolphin deaths, an abnormally high number of turtles have been found either floating close to shore or washed up on shores in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
The vast majority of these are dead,"


Sunday, April 10, 2011

Refutation

 -- by Horatio Algeranon

You really should believe me
My refutation precedes me
Last week, I said "The warming's small".
And this week, "It's not there at all."



Second verse, same as the first
A little bit louder and a little bit worse

Friday, April 8, 2011

Credible Incredability

-- by Horatio Algeranon

John Q. P
Should listen to me
I've proven my incredability
By saying lots of goofy things
Like "Warming's bunk"
And "Pigs have wings."



"Incredability" -- the ability to say incredible things day in and day out (and in seriousness, of course) -- actually makes one more credible among climate change "skeptics". 

So, for example, saying things like "Global warming is a hoax",  "Climate scientists are engaged in a conspiracy to defraud the public", "The hockey stick is the Piltdown Man of climate science" and (less extreme, but unsupported and questionable nonetheless) "Not a single polar bear has died because of receding ice" greatly boosts one's credibility and overall standing in some circles.

In fact, that's mainly why Horatio writes goofy poetry -- in the hopes that he too will one day be included among the Credibly Incredables.


Swindler's List

 --by Horatio Algeranon

Swindler's List
By Heartland kissed
Should not be  
Carelessly dismissed.

The basic gist
Is warming dissed
And climate scientists
Booed and hissed.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

High Order Nonsense

-- by Horatio Algeranon

My latest curve fits to a T --
A polynomial to the tenth degree.
The global trend
Has downward bend
A basic fact that's plain to see.


Fitting high order polynomials -- eg, with terms raised to the 4th, 5th, 6th powers (or even higher!) -- to the global temperature data in an effort to "extrapolate" future temperatures  and, in particular, predict whether they are headed down or up, is a pretty typical "error" among "armchair skeptics." It's basically nonsense, given the "noise" from one year to the next.


Black Swans


-- by Horatio Algeranon

"No need to worry" said the expert,
"The chance of that is slim to none:
Might happen every million years,
Don't let it spoil the current fun."

"The plant is safe, the market's sound,
The global climate will rebound.
The ice age cooled things in the past
Good grounds to think the warmth won't last."

"And droughts and floods, those rare events,
Will just be itty-bitty dents --
Mere fender-benders along the way
For which we can afford to pay."

About Black Swans we should not brood
Just harmless fowl -- quite good when stewed!



Inspired by Gambling with the Planet (by Nobel economics Laureate Joseph Stiglitz)
[The] wizards of finance, it turned out, didn’t understand the intricacies of risk, let alone the dangers posed by "fat-tail distributions"*- a statistical term for rare events with huge consequences, sometimes called "black swans".
If there were other planets to which we could move at low cost in the event of the almost certain outcome predicted by scientists, one could argue that [global warming and climate change] is a risk worth taking. But there aren’t, so it isn’t. The costs of reducing emissions pale in comparison to the possible risks the world faces."

*The distribution for "Climate Sensitivity" -- the change in the global temperature in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide -- is one such "fat-tail distribution".

Wikipedia has more on Black Swan Theory.