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Archive for November, 2007

So what happened to the 2007 hurricane season?

Friday, November 30th, 2007

Lots of experts are weighing in as the Atlantic hurricane season comes to an end (today). One of my favs, Jeff Masters, summarizes it this way:

The Atlantic hurricane season of 2007 is over, and it was a strange one. For the second straight year, we had a near average season, despite pre-season predictions of a very active season.

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Before going further, I should point out that hurricane forecasting experts tend to be on the wild side. The dean of forecasters, Bill Gray, has become a cranky global warming denier — you can read his detailed explanation of the 2007 season here. Masters, on the other hand, flew into hurricanes, of his own free will, for four years (!), sans parachutes (!!), until he was nearly killed flying into Hurricane Hugo, in “the most harrowing flight ever conducted by the NOAA hurricane hunters”.

On the more normal side, Chris Mooney, science writer and author of a good recent book on hurricanes and global warming, has his post mortem here.

Now the 2007 season did set a lot of records, as Masters notes:

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Hansen apologizes, warns against “averting our eyes”

Friday, November 30th, 2007

see-no-evil.jpgNASA’s James Hansen has apologized for his coal train/death train analogy (discussed here), in a post titled “Averting Our Eyes.” While I didn’t think the National Mining Association deserved an apology, Hansen came to see that others were legitimately offended:

I regret that my words caused pain to some readers. I hope that they will accept my apology for having caused discomfort, an apology that is heartfelt.

At the same time, Hansen is — like all of us — searching for the words, the metaphors, the pictures, really, anything that can help the public grasp the genuine scale of the dangers we face:

Burning all fossil fuels, if the CO2 is released into the air, would destroy creation, the planet with its animal and plant life as it has existed for the past several thousand years, the time of civilization, the Holocene, the period of relative climate stability…. We cannot pretend that we do not know the consequences of burning all fossil fuels.

I think that we still have a long way to go in making the danger clear, in part because of the inertia of the climate system and the danger of passing tipping points — points at which little or no additional forcing is needed to cause large, relatively rapid, undesirable effects….

We cannot avert our eyes and pretend that we do not understand the consequences of continued “business as usual.”

… the special interests have been cleverer than us, preventing the public from seeing the crisis that should be in view. It is hard for me to think of a different equally poignant example of the foreseeable consequence faced by fellow creatures on the planet. Suggestions are welcome.

Hansen does have more to say in his apology:

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McKinsey: Fighting climate change is affordable

Friday, November 30th, 2007

International consulting firm McKinsey & Co. has released a must-read study concluding:

The United States could reduce GHG emissions in 2030 by 3.0 to 4.5 gigatons of CO2e using tested approaches and high-potential emerging technologies. These reductions would involve pursuing a wide array of abatement options with marginal costs less than $50 per ton, with the average net cost to the economy being far lower if the nation can capture sizable gains from energy efficiency. Achieving these reductions at the lowest cost to the economy, however, will require strong, coordinated, economy-wide action that begins in the near future.

Yes — existing or in-the-pipeline technology can get us very far for the next quarter century (duh!).

Previously McKinsey had released a comprehensive cost curve for global greenhouse gas reduction measures (reprinted below, original article here), which came to the stunning conclusion that the measures needed to stabilize emissions at 450 pppm have a net cost near zero (the negative-cost efficiency measures just about compensating for the higher cost fuel switching).

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[This makes a great powerpoint slide for talks.]

A few key points on the new study:

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The Vision Thing III: What Will We Look Like in 2050?

Friday, November 30th, 2007

A few weeks ago, one of the presidential candidates’ advisors challenged a group of climate leaders to describe America’s future. His challenge triggered a flurry of e-mails as we attempted to articulate a vision.

We talked about carbon caps and price signals and new investments in R&D. That’s fine, the advisor responded, but what it the vision? What is America’s perfect future?

I’m not sure we ever satisfactorily answered this very good question, but I found myself trying to describe what America might look like 10, 20 and 40 years from now.

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Climate change news — foreign edition

Thursday, November 29th, 2007

china-drought1.jpgAutumn rain down 90 percent in China rice belt – Reuters. “Large areas of south China are suffering from serious drought, with water levels on two major rivers in rice-growing provinces dropping to historic lows.”

Africa “Forgotten Continent” in Climate Fight – Reuters. “The UN’s top climate change official said on Sunday … that damage projected for Africa by the UN climate panel would justify tougher world action to slow global warming even without considering likely disruptions to other parts of the planet.” [One reason why it's crucial that we pay attention to developing countries as we negotiate international steps.]

Japan plans to buy carbon credits from Hungary to achieve Kyoto Treaty goalInternational Herald Tribune. “Japan is falling far behind its Kyoto commitments to cut its emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to 6 percent below its 1990 by 2012. Emissions in 2006, for instance, were 6.4 percent above 1990 levels…. Tokyo, which is putting together an action plan to meet the Kyoto requirements, currently plans to use carbon credits bought overseas to lower its emissions by 1.6 percent below 1990 levels. The additional 4.4 percent must be cut by other methods.”

Japan Sets Asian Benchmarck for Energy Efficiency – Voice of America. “Technology is one of Japan’s greatest strengths in conserving energy…. And yet, for all its good intentions, the country is falling far behind in its promise to cut its own emissions.” Wait, you mean technology by itself won’t solve the global warming problem? Who knew?

London Calling: Congestion Charge Recharges Electric Cars

Thursday, November 29th, 2007

London could soon replace California as the electric car capital of the world. Thanks in large part to Mayor “Red Ken” Livingstone, who enacted London’s much criticized congestion charge policy in 2003.

The policy, which exempts electric cars from hefty daily taxation, is resulting in increasingly significant vehicle choices for English consumers. India’s Reva was first into the market with the G-Wiz. The French Mega City appeared next from NICE (No Internal Combustion Engine). Sakura Battery Co is offering a line of EVs, including the Italian Maranello4 microcar. Despite being low-speed vehicles about which safety concerns have been raised, they have months long waiting lists. Limited ranged, lead-acid battery based cars, they have nonetheless proven the demand of even less than perfect electric vehicles.

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More on the Coal Campaign in Kansas

Thursday, November 29th, 2007

In true journalistic fashion, Andy Revkin of the New York Times dug deeper into the controversial coal campaign run in Kansas after the state rejected a new coal-plant. Curiously, he surfaced with some interesting investment numbers with regards to Venezuelan coal.

For background, see Grist and Climate Progress’s discussion. In short, after the state refused to allow the construction of a new coal-fired plant, a local utility conspired with a larger energy firm to run a smear campaign against the decision, accusing it of supporting foreign energy enemies like Hugo Chavez.

In more recent news, Revkin has posted his correspondence with Peabody Energy, the world’s biggest private coal company. Ends up, they’ve a 25.5 stake in a Venezuelan coal mine.

Revkin pried, and this is what he was told: (more…)

His Name is Earl — Part I: California dreamin’ is becoming a reality

Thursday, November 29th, 2007

Climate Progress is happy to introduce Earl Killian as a guest blogger. If his name sounds familiar, that’s because he’s been a regular commenter here — so yes, it can happen, commenters can become posters. You can read his full bio here. Welcome, Earl!

Joe has asked me to contribute to Climate Progress, and specifically to report on what is going on in California to address global warming. As one website puts it, “Everybody is talking about global warming. But California is actually doing something about it.” Quite a few states have programs as well, but I do think it is fair to say California is a leader on this issue; it has been extremely active, and a bewildering number of programs are already in place. In this post (Part I) and a follow-up, I will summarize several of the most important, and then I plan to follow up with more detailed descriptions of individual items over time so as to give an idea of the breadth of attack upon the problem interspersed with current California news. I believe that California’s actions can serve as a guide to other states and the Federal government.

California electricity per capitaWhy should we listen to California? Because they have been a leader on environmental matters for decades. Consider just the remarkable results of their multi-decade energy efficiency efforts (click on this figure).

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Do you want Tucker Carlson’s car?

Wednesday, November 28th, 2007

tucker.jpgIt is yours for the taking, since he has offered perhaps the dumbest bet in TV pundit history (if not the entire history of the universe), on his hopefully soon-to-be-axed MSNBC show:

Here is my guess, and I know that I’m right. I will bet my car, in fact. Bush will come out, this president when he leaves office, will come out in the next decade or so as a strong advocate on behalf of ending global warming. He will be, he will have an environmentally conscious post presidency.

Yes, and monkeys will fly out of my…. But, seriously. Tucker, don’t give up your dancing career yet — it shows more promise than your current one.

Bush has so far had an environmentally unconscious presidency. The only planet on which Bush could become an environmentalist is Htrae (aka the Bizzaro World).

Tucker isn’t the only one who is in an alternate universe. In the same discussion, columnist Bob Franken says — I kid you not:

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Ice Ice Maybe (not) — update

Wednesday, November 28th, 2007

I wrote about this important American Meteorological Society seminar earlier.

Now, you can access both the video AND the presentations (both HTML and PDF) here. In fact, going through the presentations while playing the video will really bring you up to speed on what is happening now — and what is likely to happen in the future — for both Arctic Sea Ice, the great ice sheets, and sea level rise.

The job-creating answer to global warming

Wednesday, November 28th, 2007

energy_cover.jpgA major new report from the Center for American Progress (CAP) provides a detailed roadmap for avoiding catastrophic global warming and restoring our energy security, while maintaining economic development.

The report, Capturing the Energy Opportunity: Creating a Low Carbon Economy, is by CAP’s John Podesta, Kitt Batten, and Todd Stern. It is well worth reading, and I say that not because I am a senior fellow at CAP, but because the 88-page report lays out the most comprehensive set of plausible job-creating climate/energy policies I have seen.

The authors understand the scale of the problem:

The challenge we face is nothing short of the conversion of an economy sustained by high-carbon energy–putting both our national security and the health of our planet at serious risk–to one based on low-carbon, sustainable sources of energy. The scale of this undertaking is immense and its potential enormous.

The urgency of this issue demands a president willing to make the low-carbon energy challenge a top priority in the White House–a centerpiece not only of his or her energy policy but also of his or her economic program–to produce broad-based growth and sustain American economic leadership in the 21st century. This task is so encompassing it will demand that the incoming president in 2009 reorganize the mission and responsibility of all relevant government agencies–economic, national security, and environmental.

The report explores the crucial steps needed to meet the challenge:
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The Vision Thing II: Where are the Giants?

Wednesday, November 28th, 2007

We are the nation we are because giants have walked among us.

America was founded by giants. Others have appeared since to guide us through crises or to great things: Teddy Roosevelt, FDR, Abraham Lincoln, Martin Luther King. We have had leaders whose oratory has, sometimes in a single sentence, rallied the American people around their obligations of citizenship, the morality of equal rights, the spirit of exploration, and the compassion our blessed nation should show to those who have never known security or abundance.

Are giants walking among us today? Are any of them in the present field of presidential candidates?

Polls indicate that most Americans agree the current President has demonstrated some qualities we do not want in the White House. I’d like to offer an unabashedly old-fashioned and idealistic answer about the qualities we DO want, drawn from the Presidential Climate Action Plan.

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Congressional fuel-economy deal near

Tuesday, November 27th, 2007

The Detroit Free Press reports:

Congressional negotiators are close to agreement on an increase in fuel economy standards to 35 miles per gallon by 2020, with some caveats to satisfy U.S. automakers.

What caveats?

The compromise would preserve the distinction between cars and trucks, something Detroit automakers have fought for, while giving federal regulators strict limits on how to put the increases into place. It also would include a provision backed by the UAW aimed at keeping small-car production in the United States.

Still, much better than no deal at all.

So you want to calculate your carbon footprint

Tuesday, November 27th, 2007

Well, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratories has collected many of the most popular carbon calculators — including their own — and compared their features here. Pick one and go for it!

NOAA: Record N. Hemisphere warmth in 2007

Tuesday, November 27th, 2007

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center reports that the Northern Hemisphere year to date (January through October) is the hottest since record-keeping began in 1880.

And NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts (another) warm winter (duh):

NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasters remain confident in predicting above average temperatures for much of the country — including southern sections of the Northeast — and below normal precipitation for the southern tier of the nation.

Click on the map to see the details of the forecasts.

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Must See TV: Ice Ice Maybe (not)

Tuesday, November 27th, 2007

iceflow.jpgDo you want the latest data — some not yet published — and the best post-IPCC scientific predictions for the stunning collapse of Arctic ice and unexpected shrinking of the Greenland (and Antarctic) ice sheets? Then you should definitely watch (UPDATE: this C-SPAN video) of yesterday’s American Meteorological Society seminar (see note on link below).

The seminar is by three of the world’s top cryosphere experts: Dr. Mark Serreze (NOAA), Scott Luthcke (NASA), and Dr. Konrad Steffen (CIRES) — full bios and program summary available here. I will post their presentations when AMS puts them online (which will be here).

I have spent a great deal of time studying the ice and sea level rise issue (see links below) and still found the presentations informative and startling. It is very safe to say the Arctic Sea will be essentially ice free by 2030, and I’d personally bet on 2020 — any takers?

The most interesting presentation to me was the last one, by Konrad Steffen, who made a convincing case that the IPCC is “underestimating the rate of sea level rise” this century significantly. He expects one meter or more by 2100. The modelers are busy at work trying to account for ice dynamics in ice sheet collapse — but it may take 4 or 5 years for them to do that. When they are finished, sea level rise estimates for this century are likely to double or triple.

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WMO: CO2 levels hit new record in 2006

Tuesday, November 27th, 2007

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in its new 2006 Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, reports:

In 2006, globally averaged concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere reached their highest levels ever recorded … 381.2 parts per million (ppm), up 0.53 per cent from 379.2 ppm in 2005.

Note this is a one-year rise of 2.0 ppm, continuing the accelerated trend of the past decade, which is due to increases in global economic activity and carbon intensity, together with decreased efficiency of natural sinks, like the ocean.

wmo.gifWhy worry so much about soaring CO2 emissions? The WMO explains:

CO2 is the single most important infrared absorbing, anthropogenic gas in the atmosphere and is responsible for 63% of the total radiative forcing of Earth by long-lived greenhouse gases. Its contribution to the increase in radiative forcing is 87% for the past decade and 91% for the last five years. For about 10,000 years before the industrial revolution, the atmospheric abundance of CO2 was nearly constant at ~ 280 ppm.

We have radically altered the composition of the atmosphere, and the bill is coming due.

Hansen stands by coal train/death train analogy

Monday, November 26th, 2007

coal-train.jpgIn his final testimony submitted to the Iowa Utilities Board on the proposed coal-fired power plant in Iowa, NASA’s James Hansen used a very provocative metaphor about the trains that deliver coal:

If we cannot stop the building of more coal-fired power plants, those coal trains will be death trains — no less gruesome than if they were boxcars headed to crematoria, loaded with uncountable irreplaceable species.

The President and CEO of the National Mining Association wrote Hansen a letter (posted here by Hansen with his response) complaining:

The suggestion that coal utilization for electricity generation can be equated with the systematic extermination of European Jewry is both repellent and preposterous…. I believe you owe the hard-working men and women of the coal mining and railroad industries an apology and respectfully request that you refrain from making such comments in the future.

Hansen’s reply was:

There is nothing scientifically invalid about the above paragraph. If this paragraph makes you uncomfortable, well, perhaps it should.

I have a slightly different view of the metaphor.

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The Vision Thing I: Our Defining Moment

Monday, November 26th, 2007

As I mentioned in a previous post, many of my colleagues in climate-action circles are delighted at the detailed commitments the presidential candidates in the Democrat field are making about what they’ll do to fight global warming. It seems ungrateful to ask them for more. But ask we must.

We need to know what they’ll do to act quickly. And we need to hear their unifying vision for the post-carbon world.

On speed: We’ve all read Jim Hansen’s warning that the international community must take significant action within a decade if we wish to avoid the most dangerous consequences of global warming.

IPPC leader Rajendra Pachuari warns that speed is of the essence on global warming. Now the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has moved up the deadline. In announcing the IPCC’s final report on Nov. 16, Rajendra Pachuari warned, “If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.”

So, the question we must ask the candidates is not only what they’ll do, but when they’ll do it. What, for example, is each candidate’s plan for the first 180 days of the presidency — the six-month honeymoon period between inauguration and the middle of August, when Congress traditionally takes its summer recess?

What will the next President do about our constipated Congress?

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Weather disasters have quadrupled in 20 years

Monday, November 26th, 2007

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A new study, “Climate Alarm: Disasters increase as climate change bites,” by Oxfam International finds:

Climatic disasters are on the increase as the Earth warms up — in line with scientific observations and computer simulations that model future climate. 2007 has been a year of climatic crises, especially floods, often of an unprecedented nature. They included Africa’s worst floods in three decades, unprecedented flooding in Mexico, massive floods in South Asia and heat waves and forest fires in Europe, Australia, and California. By mid November the United Nations had launched 15 ‘flash appeals’, the greatest ever number in one year. All but one were in response to climatic disasters.

This is no shock to Climate Progress readers, but we all need to remember that this is a human tragedy (and it is going to get much, much worse if we don’t reverse emissions trends within the decade), as the Oxfam study reports in its summary:

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