Peace Processing

B'Tselem: Settlements occupy 42 percent of West Bank

I mentioned this in my Netanyahu visit post, but it's worth highlighting in more detail: B'Tselem has a new report out which concludes Israeli settlements occupy 42 percent of the total land area in the West Bank.

The actual construction in the settlements occupies just 55,479 dunam of land, roughly 1 percent of the total area of the West Bank. But B'Tselem argues, based on official state documents and maps, that the jurisdiction of the settlements -- including the various "regional councils" in the West Bank -- actually extends over 2.4 million dunam.

Israel's Isolation

Ben-Eliezer makes "secret trip" to Turkey: Israeli TV

(Updated below) Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to quietly mend fences with Turkey: He dispatched Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, his industry minister, on a secret "mediation" trip to Ankara, according to Israel's Channel 2 news.

Tension in the Levant

CENTCOM talking sense on Hamas and Hizballah

Mark Perry strikes again over on Foreign Policy's Middle East Channel:

In a "Red Team" report issued on May 7 and entitled "Managing Hizballah and Hamas," senior CENTCOM intelligence officers question the current U.S. policy of isolating and marginalizing the two movements.

Perry reported in March that Gen. David Petraeus asked to include the West Bank and Gaza in CENTCOM's area of responsibility (some notes from a follow-up conversation I had with Perry are here). Today's report fits in the same vein: Military leaders, if not civilian policymakers, are starting to see the deep structural flaws in US policy in the Middle East.

War in Afghanistan

Haqqani talks: The leaks are important but so is the leaker

I have to say, I'm a little skeptical of reports that Sirajuddin Haqqani, one of NATO's primary targets, got on a plane and flew to Kabul to meet with Hamid Karzai.

That's not to say negotiations aren't happening. Nick Schifrin reported for ABC News tonight that Karzai is holding indirect talks with Haqqani (should we call them proximity talks?) via Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence.

"We don't need to deal with Haqqani directly. We can deal with the ISI," says [a] senior Afghan government official.

Haqqani has well-documented ties to the ISI -- senior Pakistani officials have reportedly referred to his network as a "strategic asset" -- and Islamabad has recently claimed that it can "deliver" the Haqqani leadership to Karzai, according to the New York Times.

Iraqi Elections

"So Iraqiyya is not close to any coalition?"

This was an unintentionally funny exchange from Al-Sharq Al-Awsat's interview with Iraqi vice president Tariq al-Hashemi (عربي):

Q: Which of the coalitions is closest to you in forming the government?

Hashemi: It is a coalition which is committed to the constitution and to the rules of democratic behavior. [...]

Q: So Iraqiyya is not close to any coalition?

The interviewer was clearly just trying to press him on an evasive answer, but given the events of the last three months, the question seems somewhat appropriate. Hashemi goes on to say that Iraqiyya will not take part in the goverment if it's excluded -- a fairly serious threat I can't recall Iraqiyya having made before.

Of course, whether or not they follow through is another story: We've heard a lot of rhetoric since March 7, and most of it is just political posturing.

In any event, should make for a fun time this afternoon when Nouri al-Maliki and Iyad Allawi hold their second post-election meeting.

Peace Processing

Settlement factories close up shop after PA boycott

The Palestinian boycott of settlement products is starting to have an impact -- but not just on settlers.

Salam Fayyad, the Palestinian prime minister, went to a Ramallah supermarket yesterday to launch the PA's new inspection campaign. 66,000 shops across the West Bank will be checked for settlement goods. Those in compliance with the boycott will get a certificate; those in violation will receive a fine, potentially worth several thousands of dollars.

War in Afghanistan

SIGAR: Poor training, "backsliding" plague Afghan army, police

The latest UN quarterly report on Afghanistan concluded that the Afghan army and police are ahead of their interim training goals. US and NATO officials routinely cite those figures as evidence that they're making progress in Afghanistan.

But a new report from the US special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction (SIGAR) concludes that NATO has overestimated the capabilities of those units.

Peace Processing

Likud votes to restart West Bank settlements

The flotilla disaster has already chewed up a month or so of the four months earmarked for Israeli-Palestinian proximity talks.

And the Likud party delivered a reminder today that the window for talks is unlikely to be extended: The party's central committee voted in favor of resuming settlement construction when the 10-month West Bank settlement freeze expires in September.

The Bin Laden Hunter

Gary Faulkner speaks

And he's planning to go back. There's nothing I can add. Just... watch (h/t Andrew Exum).

Insecurity in Pakistan

Puncturing Pakistan's "madrasa myth"

Brookings has a new paper out -- it's two papers in one, really -- examining the role of madrassas (religious schools) in promoting militancy in Pakistan, and the interplay between education and conflict.

The educational system in Pakistan is a mess, due in part to the federal nature of the education system. Literacy is 54 percent nationwide, a figure that masks great regional and gender disparities (less than 10 percent of women in Balochistan can read, for example). 6.8 million children between the ages of five and nine are not in school; less than one-fourth of girls finish primary school.

Peace Processing

Talking about direct talks: Netanyahu returns to the White House

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivering a statement in Jerusalem on July 1, 2010. (Photo: AFP)
US president Barack Obama will use a White House meeting with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to push for an extended West Bank settlement freeze. If Netanyahu doesn't offer one - and the domestic politics are quite difficult for him - it's hard to see any possibility of direct talks with the Palestinian Authority later this year.

The Afghan Surge

Obama's southern strategy

Gen. David Petraeus testifying on Capitol Hill. (Photo: Reuters)
The president's decision to nominate Gen. David Petraeus as the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan won't mean a major change in strategy. But there are mounting reasons for pessimism about current policy, particularly the relentless focus on southern Afghanistan. The deployment of tens of thousands of additional troops to Kandahar and Helmand serves few NATO objectives.

Nuclear Negotiations

U.N. Security Council passes new Iran sanctions, but will anything change?

The so-called P5+1 countries have threatened that their 'patience is running out' with regards to Iran's nuclear program.
Twelve of the Security Council's 15 members voted in favor of a fourth round of sanctions on Tuesday, but the new resolution reflected strong desires by China and Russia to avoid crippling the Islamic Republic's economy. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad quickly dismissed the sanctions as a "used handkerchief" that should be thrown away.

Hariri's first visit to Washington as Prime Minister: Scuds, Hizballah and Iran

Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, for the first time since his election, meets with President Barack Obama in the Oval Office on May 24, 2010.
It's going to be hard for Saad Hariri, whose moderate March 14 alliance came into power in Lebanon's parliamentary elections last summer, to assert himself during his first state visit to Washington this week. The White House and Congress are dominating the conversation with fears of Syrian arms transfers to Hizballah and a push to get Lebanon's support on U.S.-led efforts to approve sanctions over Iran's nuclear program.

Karzai's visit: Patching up or papering over?

Afghan President Hamid Karzai laughing opposite Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on May 11, 2010, during Karzai's first visit to the United States in a year and the first since his re-election.
During Afghan President Hamid Karzai's four-day visit to Washington, D.C. -- the first since his re-election last fall -- he and Obama administration officials managed to batten down the hatches and put on a well-choreographed show of unity. But will compromise on issues of serious disagreement follow all the diplomatic finery?

Nuclear Negotiations

U.N. nuclear conference starts in NYC with low hopes on Iran, nonproliferation

The so-called P5+1 countries have threatened that their 'patience is running out' with regards to Iran's nuclear program.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who delivered a pugnacious speech this morning, is the highest-ranking government official attending the United Nations review conference for the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which convened today in New York City and will continue throughout May. Observers don't expect any official action on Iran, with most just hoping the treaty will hold firm.

Freedom Flotilla Killings

Anticlimax: How much did the flotilla raid really change regional politics?

A demonstration in London against the Israeli attack on the Gaza-bound flotilla. (Photo: AFP)
It has accelerated Israel's isolation from several of its neighbors and allies; it has sharpened divisions within Turkish domestic politics; it has deepened perceptions that the Obama administration as too close to Israel. And it seems to have had a remarkably minor impact on Palestinian domestic politics.

Freedom Flotilla Killings

Flotilla raid, day 2: Death toll revised down, int'l calls for investigation

This frame from a Sky News video appears to show flotilla passengers attacking Israeli troops with clubs after the troops rappelled onto the ship from helicopters.
Intent on stopping six Gaza-bound ships carrying hundreds of people and tens of thousands of tons of supplies, Israel launched a nighttime raid early on Monday morning, boarding all six ships with helicopter-borne troops. Video showed the troops fighting hand-to-hand with flotilla passengers, at least 10 of whom were killed, while a handful of Israeli soldiers were injured.

Nuclear Negotiations

A real breakthrough, or a gambit to block economic sanctions?

The leaders and foreign ministers of Brazil, Iran and Turkey take a photograph after announcing a nuclear fuel swap deal in Tehran on May 17, 2010. (Photo: EPA)
If the deal is accepted, Iran will be obligated to ship more than half of its low-enriched uranium to Turkey within one month. The agreement will almost certainly block the U.S.-led push for tougher economic sanctions against Iran.

Peace Processing

Erekat: East Jerusalem settlements could "take down the proximity talks"

Palestinian laborers work on a construction site in the East Jerusalem settlement of Ramot Shlomo. (Photo: AFP)
Less than 48 hours after the Palestinian leadership agreed to join indirect peace discussions with the Israeli government for the first time in more than a year, Israeli promises to continue construction in East Jerusalem neighborhoods may mean that such talks, already fragile and two months late, are dead on arrival.

Peace Processing

A direct push for indirect talks

Israeli and Palestinian demonstrators yelling at each other during a settler rally in the Arab neighborhood of Silwan in East Jerusalem. (Photo: New York Times)
Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas seems to have climbed down from his opposition to indirect talks with Israel. The Obama administration hopes that an Abbas visit to Washington next month, and an upcoming vote at the Arab League, will pave the way for Israeli-Palestinian "proximity talks." But there's little enthusiasm, on either side, for renewed negotiations.