FYI everyone, the deadline to register to vote in this November's election is tomorrow at midnight. I'm pretty sure everyone who reads this site regularly has all their paperwork in order, but we all have those friends who only vote when prodded to, so now is the time to make sure they are registered at their proper address if they've moved recently or if they aren't registered but should be.
In this year of (among other things) anger at undocumented immigrants (a.k.a. illegal aliens), you would think that someone whose public persona is best known for having led the angry charge would make sure that he never, EVER, hired anyone without checking for papers first.
But in the case of Lou Dobbs, you would be wrong.
The Nation magazine has a long article on Dobbs's hypocrisy, and it's a dilly. Meg Whitman? Child's play compared to Dobbs.
It's been obvious since Crazy Carl stomped hapless Rick Lazio in the primary that Paladino is in way over his head. The not-ready-for-primetime campaign has stumbled from one ridiculous embarrassment to another over the last few weeks. Now comes word that he's bought TV time across the state to make a "major announcement" later today. Lord only knows what this is all about.
Republican gubernatorial nominee Carl Paladino is planning to make some sort of major television announcement tomorrow at 5:13 p.m., my sources tell me.
"Paladino has purchased a [block of TV time] in Buffalo with the 3 network affiliates at 5:13 with a satellite uplink avail for downstate media. You cannot turn on the major channels with-out seeing Carl.
"The broadcast will be rerun in Rochester, Albany and Syracuse (broadcast ) and Channel 12 on LI, plus Westchester Fox cable later that evening," Source 1 tells me. "YNN and NY-1 [were] asked to sell Paladino time for statewide reach -- they both declined. [He is] trying to buy FOX statewide at 5:13... Simulcast difficult -- may be on at 6 p.m. Huge audience. Then the campaign looked to put it up statewide on a Sports network where few women watch. [It] fell through -- too complicated for simulcast. [About] 45 % of general elections upstate will see it.... Satellite will reach [approximately] another 30 % through news outlets."
Paladino is taping this message -- whatever it may be -- at 4 p.m., and it will post online at 5:13 p.m., Source 1 said.
....
"He's getting contacted by a lot of Republicans, Conservatives and Tea Party leaders... At a Democrat rally [tonight] he was talking to some very old friends [from Buffalo]."
Paladino, Source 2 said, went home and "he's spending time there, and he's making his mind up what he's going do. There are party regulars telling him he needs to apologize. There are party irregulars telling him to go foward and reveal" some sort of bad oppo about Cuomo. "He's taking his own counsel."
The only thing that seems not to be in the works is a Paladino announcement that he's pulling out of the race... But who knows???
Paladino "taking his own counsel" is a scary thought indeed.
So what do you think he's up to? A McCain-esque "suspension" of his campaign while he does...I dunno, something? Does he reveal some sort of evidence of Cuomo shenanigans? Does he go all Ross Perot on us and reveal a plot against his family? Does he apologize for something (or everything?)
Or is he just a nutter jerking the chains of 19 million New Yorkers?
When Neil Di Carlo lost the GOP Primary to Nan Hayworth in September, he did not congratulate or endorse the victor. In his mind, there are still other choices for conservative voters in New York's 19th Congressional District.
And in Orange County, fliers and signs asking voters to write in Di Carlo for Congress are popping up, likely because of Nan Hayworth's stances on abortion and other social issues. And while Di Carlo hasn't quite came out and say to write him in come November, Di Carlo is adamant that voters select another candidate in the race instead of Hayworth or Congressman John Hall.
On his campaign website, Di Carlo asked voters to stick by their principles and not vote for Hayworth:
To endorse or vote for Nan Hayworth, however, would require me to place profound moral principles beneath mere party expediency - a price neither I nor any candidate should be required to pay. Our differences on social issues fall within these bounds.
I believe that forsaking our moral American heritage is to blame for much of our country's downfall.
To those who feel that neither candidate represents their concerns, I encourage you to still vote on November 2nd and write in a candidate of your choice.
We cannot assume that pro-life voters will swarm to a write-in candidate, nor can we even assume that these voters will sit on their hands because of Hayworth's stances on abortion and other social issues. Still, don't doubt that the votes gathered by Neil Di Carlo on election day won't peel away, at least a bit, from Nan Hayworth's tally.
BOOM! This one finds its mark hard. Lee Zeldin has been taking gobs of campaign cash from all the usual wingnut suspects and even South Carolina whackadoo Jim Demint. This ad calls him out.
Although Barbara Bartoletti of the NY League of Women Voters apparently admitted yesterday that redistricting isn’t the sexiest of topics, it is one that has a big impact on women in New York.Redistricting happens every ten years, when the new census results are received and districts need to be readjusted to account for population changes.At least that’s the theory.In practice in New York, districts are redrawn to benefit the party in power and make it easier for incumbents to keep their seats.For decades, a sort of “gentleman’s agreement” has prevailed in New York, whereby Assembly districts are drawn to benefit Democrats, and Senate districts are drawn to benefit Republicans.
One upshot of these gentleman divvying up the state between themselves has been the abysmal lack of women in the State Senate.Republicans, in general, are less likely to elect women—there are currently 2 sitting Republican women as opposed to 8 sitting Democratic women.Moreover, incumbents, particularly long-time incumbents, are much harder to run against, as they often have a prohibitive fundraising advantage.Redistricting that protects incumbents means less turnover, which means fewer opportunities for women candidates.
The drawing of districts to maximize the Republicans’ advantage in the Senate has also meant that New York has less progressive laws than its citizens, on average, support.New York, for instance, is majority pro-choice, across the state, although you wouldn’t know that from the current number of anti-choice Senators.Similarly, polls found that marriage equality had majority support across the entire state, but not a single Republican Senator voted in favor.
So it is no surprise that Cynthia Appleton, Didi Barrett, Kathleen Joy, Jennifer Maertz, Pam Mackesey, Susan Savage, Robin Wilt, Mary Wilmot, and Joanne Yepsen have all signed the New York Uprising pledge for government reform, including redistricting reform.They understand that fair redistricting will benefit all New Yorkers, but perhaps especially women.
Crossposted at 16% and Rising, supporting Democratic women candidates for State Senate.
Say what you want about negative campaigning, but one tenant is more important than any other; don't edit a video to make your opponent look worse. Not only is it ethically wrong, but you'll probably get caught eventually. In this case, New Yorkers for Growth, a sort of mini Club for Growth in New York, has been caught editing a video of Sen. Oppenheimer as part of their attacks against the Senator in support of slumlord conservative candidate Bob Cohen.
The right-leaning New Yorkers For Growth group has already endorsed Cohen, pointing to a rather painful video that shows Oppenheimer -- chair of the Senate Education Committee -- struggling to answer questions from GOP Sen. John Flanagan about school funding.
However, a fuller version of the video...and a transcript of her exchange with Flanagan we obtained, which has the cut portions of their testimony highlighted in yellow, appears to show that the tape was edited to make Oppenheimer look, well, just plain bad.
This is a great catch by Celeste and the Daily News. The original ad, which can be found here makes it look like Senator Oppenheimer can't answer basic questions about the budget and has to rely on his staffer for all of the information. But the real video shows the Senator and her opponent, Senator Flanagan, having a pretty free-flowing and normal discussion on this subject with Senator Oppenheimer astutely answering most of Flanagan's questions. That video (which starting at around 1:16:00 gets to the good stuff) makes this point very clear.
And even better, there's a transcript that matches up to the alleged video and shows the actual answers to the questions!
Look, maybe NY Club for Growth doesn't like the substance of what Senator Oppenheimer was saying. And they're more than welcome to push against her on the substance of the issues. But when a group starts to edit videos down to make an individual look bad, they're playing a disingenuous game. It shows that they're bankrupt on ideas and stuck with just making stuff up to make their opponents look bad. And that's a game that the media and the blogosphere will catch them on every time.
The New York Senate race was a lot more fun when we still had Harold Ford to kick around. Today, unfortunately, we have to make do with reactionary dick Joe DioGuardi, going up against Netroots All-Star Kirsten Gillibrand.
But as it turns out, republic/tea party candidate Joe has a lot of potential for would-be mockers. Like all of his ilk, Joe is a big tax-cutter. What we're learning now is that he made his own tax cut by simply not paying them.
Regrettably, the Internal Revenue Service doesn't really like that.
(Tim is the Workers' Rights Policy Specialist at Progressive States Network, a national non-profit that works with state legislators and advocates to develop and advance progressive legislation in the states.)
The case against a proposed law requiring paid sick days in New York City is falling apart. City Council Speaker Christine Quinn should change her current course, embrace the bill as her own, and move forward aggressively before further delays and equivocation cost her politically. Far from bolstering the case against the bill, a survey by business groups released last week contradicts testimony they provided before the City Council just a few months ago and casts the case of the opposition in doubt.
Speaker Quinn is using an inordinate amount of political capital to delay a vote on paid sick days. In May, the Partnership for New York City (the advocacy group for the city's largest corporations) testified that paid sick days would cost businesses an additional $3 billion to $3.5 billion per year. After the hearing, the Speaker agreed to wait months for the coalition of business groups, led by the Partnership and the Chambers of Commerce, to conduct a study they claimed would back up their estimates. Months later, the results of the survey project a cost at least four times less than what its authors promised at the Council hearing -- and far closer to the estimates provided by supporters of the bill.
It is well-known that Speaker Quinn intends to run for Mayor in 2013, and her decisions on major issues like this have to be viewed through that lens. The paid sick days issue enjoys deep support both in the city and throughout the country. This summer's Democratic primary for governor in Connecticut shows that the issue's resonance with voters can translate into a powerful advantage at the polls. By not supporting paid sick days -- or having been an obstacle to the bill passing -- Quinn risks fallout from ordinary New Yorkers by currying favor with big business.
A reader with an eye for Long Island politics just drew my attention to a shocking statement made by Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) this weekend.
DeMint said if someone is openly homosexual, they shouldn't be teaching in the classroom and he holds the same position on an unmarried woman who's sleeping with her boyfriend - she shouldn't be in the classroom.
Why should you care that a South Carolina Senator thinks that local school boards should be policing the bedrooms of their teachers? Because Senator DeMint has been raising money for Lee Zeldin, who is running against State Senator Brian Foley on Long Island.
Personally, I'd prefer that my school board focused on educating children and reining in ballooning property taxes over worrying about people's private lives - how about you, Long Islanders?
Crossposted at 16% and Rising, promoting women candidates and women's issues this election through the DSCC.
The poll, which I believe is somewhat flawed but still very useful, shows Andrew Cuomo up by 24 on Carl Paladino. While I believe that number is high (I think his lead is actually closer to 16-20), the crosstabs paint a beautiful picture: This race is over.
First, let me explain why I think the top-line number on the poll is flawed - Siena is predicting just 31% of the electorate to be Republicans (overall ~31-47-22). I think the number will be significantly higher with a more motivated base. However, even when the numbers are rejiggered to predict what would happen if Republicans were 40% of the electorate (40-40-20), Cuomo still leads by 16 points.
The most telling statistic is this: 10% of Democrats are planning to vote for Paladino, but 25% of Republicans are planning to vote for Cuomo. That means that the Republicans need to be 62% of the voters on election day for Paladino to win (weighting the crosstabs 62-29-9 produces a 8/100ths of a point lead for Paladino). Nate Silver recently explained that a lead of 9 points for a governor this close to election day has only been overcome once in the last 12 years, and a lead of 12 points or more has not been overcome in that timeframe. There is no reason to believe that this year will be any different.
A new poll out shows the State Senate race for the 40th district too close to call.
The numbers from Siena College show Assemblyman Greg Ball (R-Patterson) with a 1-point lead over Westchester County Legislator Mike Kaplowitz (D-Somers), 45-44 percent. Twelve percent are undecided. The lead, however, is within the poll's margin of error, which is plus or minus 4.5 percent. The poll was conducted from Sept. 28 to 30.
The poll also shows notable differences by region. Westchester voters back Kaplowitz 49-41 percent, while Putnam and Dutchess voters - placed into one category - back Ball 51-36 percent.
It doesn't take a genius to tell that Kap is going to have to turn out his Westchester base in order to win this race, which means there is a great opportunity for NYC-based activists to help Senate Dems right next door. With Stach's seat looking like a GOP pickup, Dave Mejias' implosion, and Tony Avella trailing in recent polls, this might be our best opportunity to pick up an insurance seat in case Aubertine or Valesky wobble upstate and retain a 31-31 tie that Duffy would swing in our favor come January.
We were all dissappointed when Regina Calcaterra was kicked off the ballot in SD-1 to challenge Ken LAvalle, but luckily we now have a suitable replacement in Calcaterra staffer Jennifer Maertz. The Suffolk Times recently ran a good profile:
Ms. Maertz was a member of Ms. Calcaterra's team, joining her on the campaign trail until the former candidate was knocked off the ballot in August after a judge agreed with a Republican challenger that she failed to meet a requirement for five years of continuous residency in New York.
(snip)
We could not find doors where people weren't upset with Albany," Ms. Maertz said at the Orient event of her door-to-door campaigning with Ms. Calcaterra. "They know what's going on and they don't like what's going on," she said. "We need to root out waste" she added, and provide "transparency" in government.
"It's the same campaign," Ms. Maertz said, asserting that she and Ms. Calcaterra had identical views on issues. They share a belief that Albany needs ethics reforms; a determination to revise the school aid formula that penalizes Long Islanders, who educate 17 percent of state students but get 12 percent of state school funds; a dedication to bringing jobs back to Long Island; and a commitment to a pro-choice agenda and marriage equality.
Maertz might renew hopes that we can take this seat in November but she needs all the help she can get from the base and all the name recognition she can get, so spread the word!
