Burden sharing in the EurozoneDirk Schoenmaker, 18 October 2010The financial crisis has shown that countries put national interests first. On the banking side, the handling of Fortis, Lehman and the Icelandic banks are clear examples of coordination failure. On the sovereign side, the Greek saga illustrates the damage of ad hoc attempts to coordinate. This column explores how burden sharing can be made to work in practice. Foreign investment in southern Africa: Why so little?Daniel Lederman, Lixin Colin Xu, 17 October 2010Foreign direct investment has been an important component in development success stories around the world. This column explores why southern African countries have not been part of this story. Using newly available data it finds that FDI can help development and provide positive spillovers to the local economy. But Africa must have strong fundamentals to attract investment – in particular, greater openness to trade. A “one dollar, one vote” explanation of the welfare stateLoukas Karabarbounis, 16 October 2010Why do Europe and the US, both affluent regions, differ so much in the size of their welfare state? To answer this question, this column examines OECD countries between 1975 and 2001, finding that countries with wealthier rich- and middle-classes are associated with a smaller welfare state while those with a richer poor class are associated with a larger one – supporting the “one dollar, one vote” explanation. Decriminalizing cannabis: the impact on crimeImran Rasul, 15 October 2010Imran Rasul of University College London talks to Romesh Vaitilingam about his research with Jerome Adda and Brendon McConnell on the effects of a localized policing experiment that decriminalized cannabis possession in the London borough of Lambeth between 2001 and 2002. The interview was recorded at the annual congress of the European Economic Association in Glasgow in August 2010. The Diamond, Mortensen and Pissarides Nobel: Search and market frictionsBarbara Petrongolo, 15 October 2010The 2010 Nobel Prize in Economics has been awarded to Peter Diamond, Dale Mortensen, and Christopher Pissarides "for their analysis of markets with search frictions". This column explains how their research relates to fundamental economic issues that are both at the core of the wellbeing of society at large and now near the top of many policymakers’ agendas. A brief guide to hiring PhD economistsRaphael Auer, Goran Mišković, Jason Wildhagen, 15 October 2010Whether you are in academia, government, or private business, the hiring of PhD economists is very different from standard recruiting. This column documents the peculiarities of the job market for junior economists and describes how the job market boards of walras.org and VoxEU.org can be used to disseminate information about job openings and receive online applications. The European Commission’s proposals: Empty and uselessFrancesco Giavazzi, Luigi Spaventa, 14 October 2010The European Commission now recognises that fiscal discipline alone is not enough to ensure the stability of the euro. Yet this column argues that the new proposals to combat the Eurozone’s fragility are an empty and useless exercise – Europe’s policymakers should instead be worried about unchecked credit expansion. Your new composite index has arrived: Please handle with careMartin Ravallion, 14 October 2010Policymakers and commentators are constantly looking for new ways to measure development. This column warns against embracing new composite indices with little guidance from economic or other theories. It provides a critical overview of the strengths and weaknesses of using such “mashup” indices of development. Stronger economic governance in the EUMarco Buti, Martin Larch, 14 October 2010The European Commission’s proposals for stronger economic governance in the EU have aroused both broad approval and outright condemnation. In this column, the European Commission’s Director-General for Economic and Financial Affairs outlines why he and colleagues are confident that the proposals will work. Ensuring globalisation after the global crisisGary Clyde Hufbauer, Kati Suominen, 13 October 2010The global crisis has rocked people’s faith in globalisation. This column introduces a new book arguing that, despite taking a step back, globalisation is one of the most travelled routes the world has known for spreading growth and prosperity. It provides policy recommendations for renovating that road dealing with the WTO, social security, global imbalances, and foreign direct investment. Can financial reform reduce tax evasion?Thorsten Beck, Chen Lin, Yue Ma, 13 October 2010Can financial sector reform help bring informal firms into the formal sector? This column examines over 22,000 firms from 43 countries. Firms in countries with a credit registry are 20% less likely to evade taxes, and the tax evasion ratio in such countries is 11% lower. Systemic liquidity risk and bankruptcy exceptionsEnrico Perotti, 13 October 2010How did the bank-funding system get so fragile to mletdown and lead to the worst crisis since WWII? In a new CEPR Policy Insight, Enrico Perotti argues that an important part of the answer lies in the bankruptcy privileges granted in 2005 to overnight secured credit and derivatives by the US authorities. These privileges made such lending safe for the lenders and thus cheap for the borrowers. The result was fantastic growth in this market to the detriment of stability. Greece and the fiscal crisis in the EurozoneThe Editors, 12 October 2010The saga of Greece’s public finances continues, and it is not the only country whose fiscal sustainability is in doubt. This column introduces a new Policy Insight by Willem Buiter and Ebrahim Rahbari that analyses the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone and the response of the national authorities, EU institutions, and IMF. The two rebalancing actsOlivier Blanchard, 12 October 2010A “strong, balanced, and sustained world recovery” as demanded by the G20 is a daunting challenge for policymakers. This column argues that two rebalancing acts are required: internal rebalancing – replacing government spending with private-sector demand, and external rebalancing – addressing the global imbalances between exporting and importing countries. These two rebalancing acts, it adds, are taking too long. Services sector reform and the Indian manufacturing miracleJens Matthias Arnold, Beata Javorcik, Molly Lipscomb, Aaditya Mattoo, 12 October 2010Conventional explanations for the post-1991 growth of India’s manufacturing sector focus on trade liberalisation and industrial de-licensing. This column examines 4,000 Indian firms from 1993 to 2005 and argues that a key factor for the success of Indian manufacturing may lie outside of manufacturing – in the services sector. European jobs in 2040: Thinking ahead in the NetherlandsGeorge M M Gelauff, Bas ter Weel, Albert van der Horst, 11 October 2010How will we earn our money in 2040? This column develops four scenarios for how the Dutch economy may evolve. It argues that the future depends on the development of technology – the fundamental driver of future economic development. Many of the lessons and analysis apply equally to the rest of Europe. Social policy in times of crisisMegan Gerecke, Naren Prasad, 10 October 2010Financial crises, such as that of 2008-2009, cause GDP to decline, trade to shrink, unemployment to rise, and social problems to increase. What is the link between financial crises and social security spending? This column examines the trends in social security spending in the aftermath of a financial crisis, advising that now is the time for developing countries to expand their social spending. Currency wars: China should impose green taxes on its exportsGérard Roland, 9 October 2010How should China respond to the threat of tariffs from the US? This column provides a solution that could result in the desired appreciation of the renminbi and at the same time allow China to take the lead on climate change. Childcare subsidies and child wellbeing: New evidence from the USChris Herbst, Erdal Tekin, 9 October 2010Do subsidies for childcare succeed in getting parents to work and improving the wellbeing of the children? This column presents evidence from the US suggesting that childcare subsidies have an unintended consequence. In the short run, children from low-income families are worse off as their parents go off to work and they receive low-quality childcare. Regional development policies: Place-based or people-centred?Indermit Gill, 9 October 2010Economic development is not evenly spread, and in some places it is still yet to arrive. This column looks at suggestions from the World Bank’s World Development Report to combat this inequality. It argues that economic growth will be unbalanced, and to try to spread it out – too much, too far, or too soon – is to discourage it. Instead, policymakers should focus on economic integration. A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateBarry Eichengreen, Kevin H. O’Rourke, 8 March 2010This column updates the original Vox columns by Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke comparing today’s global crisis to the Great Depression. The three previous columns have shattered all Vox readership records with over 450,000 views. This latest edition covers up to February 2010 showing that, while there is cause for optimism, there is no room for complacency. Views 575160Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsJames J. Heckman, Paul A. LaFontaine, 13 February 2008Official statistics for US high school graduation rates mask a growing educational divide. This column presents research showing that a record number of Americans are going to university – while an increasing number are dropping out of high school. This poses major social challenges for the United States. Views 133864Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesBarry Eichengreen, 4 May 2010Originally posted 17 November 2007, this Vox column is more relevant than ever arguing that adopting the euro is effectively irreversible. Leaving would require lengthy preparations, which, given the anticipated devaluation, would trigger the mother of all financial crises. National households and firms would shift deposits to other Eurozone banks producing a system-wide bank run. Investors, trying to escape, would create a bond-market crisis. Here is what the train wreck would look like. Views 84666Subprime 'crisis': FAQs (revised & updated)Stephen Cecchetti, 15 August 2007A revised and updated version of the 13 August column on the basic how's and why's of what the Fed has been doing to calm financial markets. Views 77637Five decades of evidence on financial crisis and recession: How long? How deep?Stijn Claessens, M. Ayhan Kose, Marco E. Terrones, 7 October 2008The house and equity price busts on top of a credit crunch make this an unprecedented crisis for the modern US economy; its real economy effects are thus difficult to assess. This column provides insights based on evidence from 122 recessions in 21 advanced nations since 1960. Findings suggest recessions in such circumstances are much costlier and slightly longer. But the outcome can be affected by policy, and it’s high time that policymakers act swiftly and decisively. Views 71636The euro could surpass the dollar within ten yearsJeffrey Frankel, 18 March 2008One of the world’s leading international economists explains how the euro could surpass the dollar as the premier international currency and examines the geopolitical implications of such a shift. Views 70446Subprime ‘crisis’: FAQsStephen Cecchetti, 13 August 2007Here are the basic how's and why's of what the Fed has been doing to calm financial markets. Views 66909Rescuing our jobs and savings: What G7/8 leaders can do to solve the global credit crisisBarry Eichengreen, Richard Baldwin, 9 October 2008Without rapid and coordinated action by G7/8 leaders, this financial crisis could turn into a jobs crisis, a pension crisis and much more. This column introduces a collection of essays by leading economists on what the G7/8 leaders should do this weekend. The dozen essays present a remarkable consensus on a few points: we need immediate, coordinated global action that includes recapitalisation of the banks. Views 65857Subprime crisis: causes, consequences and curesCarmen M. Reinhart, 15 March 2008We may just have started to feel the pain. Asset price drops – including housing – are common markers in all the big banking crises over the past 30 years. GDP declines after such crises were both large (-2% on average) and protracted (2 years to return to trend); in the 5 biggest crises, the numbers were -5% and 3 years. This column, based on the author’s testimony to the Congress, picks through the causes and consequences. It argues that when it comes to ‘cures,’ it would be far better to get the job done right than get the job done quickly. Views 65217Good news at last? The recession will be over sooner than you thinkNicholas Bloom, Max Floetotto, 12 January 2009A key source of the today’s economic weakness is uncertainty that led firms to postpone investment and hiring decisions. This column, by the authors whose model forecast the recession as far back as June 2008, report that the key measures of uncertainty have dropped so rapidly that they believe growth will resume by mid-2009. This means any additional economic stimulus has to be enacted quickly. Delaying to the summer may mean the economic medicine is administered just as the patient is leave the hospital. Views 61272Trade and inequality, revisitedPaul Krugman, 15 June 2007It’s no longer safe to assert that trade’s impact on the income distribution in wealthy countries is fairly minor. There’s a good case that it is big, and getting bigger. I’m not endorsing protectionism, but free-traders need better answers to the anxieties of globalisation’s losers. Views 61084Krugman’s view on the dollarRichard Baldwin, 2 October 2007As the dollar has started to slide, the question is: how far, how fast? This column, which is based on Paul Krugman’s recent Economic Policy article suggests the answers are: pretty far and pretty fast. Views 59664Mother of all bailouts and what it means for EuropeDaniel Gros, Stefano Micossi, 20 September 2008The radical moves in the US have direct implications for European banks and indirect implications for European governments. This column discusses the likely channels and notes that several European banks are both too big to fail and may be too big to be saved by their national governments alone. Views 59489How bad could the crisis get? Lessons from IcelandJon Danielsson, 12 November 2008Iceland’s banking system is ruined. GDP is down 65% in euro terms. Many companies face bankruptcy; others think of moving abroad. A third of the population is considering emigration. The British and Dutch governments demand compensation, amounting to over 100% of Icelandic GDP, for their citizens who held high-interest deposits in local branches of Icelandic banks. Europe’s leaders urgently need to take step to prevent similar things from happening to small nations with big banking sectors. Views 58633Iceland’s banking collapse: Predicable end and lessons for other vulnerable nationsWillem Buiter, Anne Sibert, 30 October 2008In the first half of 2008, Buiter and Sibert were invited to study Iceland’s financial problems. They identified the “vulnerable quartet” of (1) a small country with (2) a large banking sector, (3) its own currency and (4) limited fiscal capacity – a quartet that meant Iceland’s banking model was not viable. How right they were. This column summarises the report, which is now available as CEPR Policy Insight No. 26 with an October 2008 update. Views 56146Tennis, pressure and the gender wage-gapM Daniele Paserman, 26 June 2007Female tennis players play more conservatively and commit more unforced errors when playing critical points. Does this explain the upper-echelons wage gap? Views 55522Slave trade and African underdevelopmentNathan Nunn, 8 December 2007Slavery, according to historical accounts, played an important role in Africa’s underdevelopment. It fostered ethnic fractionalisation and undermined effective states. The largest numbers of slaves were taken from areas that were the most underdeveloped politically at the end of the 19th century and are the most ethnically fragmented today. Recent research suggests that without the slave trades, 72% of Africa’s income gap with the rest of the world would not exist today. Views 55204Open Letter to European leaders on Europe’s banking crisis: A call to actionAlberto Alesina, Richard Baldwin, Tito Boeri, Willem Buiter, Francesco Giavazzi, Daniel Gros, Stefano Micossi, Guido Tabellini, Charles Wyplosz, Klaus F. Zimmermann, 1 October 2008This is a once-in-a-lifetime crisis. Trust among financial institutions is disappearing; fear may spread. Last week’s US experience showed that saving one bank at a time won’t work. A systemic response is needed and in Europe this means an EU-led initiative to recapitalise the banking sector. Unless European leaders immediately unite to address this crisis before it spirals out of control, they may find themselves fighting over how best to salvage the aftermath. Views 54273Is the LIBOR-OIS spread due to predatory behaviour?Francesco Giavazzi, 2 June 2008There has been a persistent spread between the rate at which banks lend each other money and government-backed securities yields in recent months. This column describes hypotheses explaining the spread – including the possibility that banks aren’t lending in order to bankrupt acquisition targets. Views 53954Do you really want to tax ability?N. Gregory Mankiw , Matthew Weinzierl, 12 June 2009Should the income tax system include a tax credit for short taxpayers and a tax surcharge for tall ones? This column explains how the standard utilitarian framework for tax policy analysis says that individual attributes correlated with wages, such as height, should determine tax liabilities. Taller individuals should pay higher taxes. If this is objectionable, then something is wrong with the standard framework. Views 52641The two rebalancing actsOlivier Blanchard, 12 October 2010A “strong, balanced, and sustained world recovery” as demanded by the G20 is a daunting challenge for policymakers. This column argues that two rebalancing acts are required: internal rebalancing – replacing government spending with private-sector demand, and external rebalancing – addressing the global imbalances between exporting and importing countries. These two rebalancing acts, it adds, are taking too long. Greece and the fiscal crisis in the EurozoneThe Editors, 12 October 2010The saga of Greece’s public finances continues, and it is not the only country whose fiscal sustainability is in doubt. This column introduces a new Policy Insight by Willem Buiter and Ebrahim Rahbari that analyses the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone and the response of the national authorities, EU institutions, and IMF. The European Commission’s proposals: Empty and uselessFrancesco Giavazzi, Luigi Spaventa, 14 October 2010The European Commission now recognises that fiscal discipline alone is not enough to ensure the stability of the euro. Yet this column argues that the new proposals to combat the Eurozone’s fragility are an empty and useless exercise – Europe’s policymakers should instead be worried about unchecked credit expansion. Currency wars: China should impose green taxes on its exportsGérard Roland, 9 October 2010How should China respond to the threat of tariffs from the US? This column provides a solution that could result in the desired appreciation of the renminbi and at the same time allow China to take the lead on climate change. How to avoid trade war: A reciprocity requirementDaniel Gros, 8 October 2010With the US threatening to label China a “currency manipulator”, this column presents a plan to address global imbalances without risking a trade war. It proposes a “reciprocity” requirement – if the US can’t buy Chinese government bonds, then China can’t buy US bonds either. Reforming the Stability Pact: Focus on financial supervisionGuido Tabellini, 5 October 2010The current European economic governance needs reform. This column argues that rather than trying to invade national governments’ autonomy in economic policy, the European authorities should focus on the transfer of sovereignty in the field of financial supervision. Eurozone reform: Not yet fiscal discipline, but a good startCharles Wyplosz, 4 October 2010Can the Eurozone’s Stability and Growth Pact be made to work? This column argues that the European Commission’s reform proposals for the pact include some good ideas but many bad ones. If adopted, it says the pact will not significantly advance fiscal discipline in the Eurozone but it could turn out to be a transition to an effective framework. Remake trade through a US-EU partnershipSusan Ariel Aaronson, 1 October 2010In response to Dr. Cernat’s call for feedback on the EU’s trade policy, this column calls on Europeans and Americans to rethink their trade policies. It argues both can meet 21st century needs only by collaborating, mostly at the WTO. Trade policy challenges are also an opportunity to make the system more coherent and meet the goals of expanding trade, enhancing human welfare and increasing employment. From currency warfare to lasting peaceBarry Eichengreen, 30 September 2010The "international currency war" mentioned by Brazil's finance minister poses massive dangers for the world trade and financial systems. This column by one of the world's most respected international economists argues that there is a better way. The G3 should engage in quantitative easing so they all can export more to each other. For the emerging markets, the danger lies in inflation, asset bubbles, and trade retaliation. To shield their key manufacturing sectors, they should encourage the domestic demand for manufactures. Culture can determine long-run growthYuriy Gorodnichenko, Gérard Roland, 21 September 2010Does culture affect long-run growth? This column argues that countries with a more individualist culture have enjoyed higher long-run growth than countries with a more collectivist culture. Individualist culture attaches social status rewards to personal achievements and thus provides not only monetary incentives for innovation but also social status rewards. The shortcomings of using states for federal macroeconomic fiscal policyRobert P Inman, 15 September 2010What can we learn from US President Obama’s fiscal stimulus? This column argues that channelling the stimulus package through state governments exposed it to agency costs, free-riding problem, and political expediency. As a result, the stimulus has failed to meet its objectives at the state level. The lesson is that fiscal stimulus should be conducted centrally. The Empire strikes backAvinash Persaud, 14 September 2010The role of financial institutions in the global crisis has led to a consensus that financial regulation must change. This column argues that the banking lobby, far from depleted, has struck back with a vengeance. It has managed to postpone the much needed regulation for a time when the need for it will be forgotten. The decade after the fall: Diminished expectations, double dips, and external shocksCarmen M. Reinhart, Vincent Reinhart, 13 September 2010Is the global economic recovery about to grind to a halt? This column provides evidence on economic performance in the decade after a macroeconomic crisis. It finds that growth is much slower and as well as several episodes of “double dips”. It adds that many of these economies experience plain “bad luck” that strikes at a time when the economy remains highly vulnerable. Do countries “graduate” from crises? An historical perspectiveRong Qian, Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, 31 August 2010Are declarations of victory against the global crisis premature? This column argues that “graduation” – the emergence from recurrent crisis bouts – is a long and painful process which neither developed nor developing countries look close to completing. Two centuries of evidence suggests that most countries need 50 years before the chances of further crises subside. A helicopter drop for the US TreasuryRicardo Caballero, 30 August 2010The US may be near a liquidity trap. This column argues that the ineffectiveness of monetary policy can be turned on its head by using money creation to finance fiscal policy stimulus – such as a large but temporary cut in sales taxes. To avoid future problems, the Treasury could commit to transfer resources back to the Fed when the economy is back to full employment. This would be a helicopter drop with a drainage contingency. Strengthening the financial system: The benefits outweigh the costsStephen Cecchetti, Benjamin H Cohen, 20 August 2010The extent of the damage from the global crisis has forced policymakers to rethink how they regulate finance. This column first examines the long-term impact of stronger capital and liquidity requirements and then estimates the transitional economic impact as the new standards are phased in. It argues that, while such reforms may come at a short-term cost, the benefits of a stronger and healthier financial system will be around for years to come. Cutting the corruption tax: A way out for GreecePaul Romer, 11 August 2010For many, corruption and political cronyism are seen as an inevitable part of Greek politics. This column argues that the same could have been said in the 1970s about Hong Kong, now a beacon of low corruption. Hong Kong managed this turnaround by appointing a non-elected governor accountable to the UK government. Greece could achieve the same by calling on the EU and start counting the benefits. Debt and growth revisitedCarmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, 11 August 2010With the advanced economies at a critical juncture, some economists are urging more fiscal stimulus while others argue that raising debt levels will stunt growth. This column presents the Reinhart-Rogoff findings on the relationship between debt and growth based on data from 44 countries over 200 years with a focus on the debt-growth link during high-debt episodes. The “stimulus debate” and the golden rule of mountain climbingFrancesco Giavazzi, 22 July 2010The global macroeconomy is at a juncture; some economists argue for continued fiscal stimulus to avoid a double dip recession while others argue for fiscal prudence. In this column, one of the world's leading macroeconomists argues for continued stimulus combined with a plan to ensure long-run sustainability by reforming the funding of pension liabilities. Leaving the euro: Lessons from ArgentinaMario I. Blejer, Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, 21 July 2010Rumours of Eurozone break-up are mounting. This column argues that exiting a strong currency for a weak one poses almost unthinkable challenges, from the redenomination of contracts and the imposition of bank restrictions to the restructuring of external debt and limiting of capital mobility. Lessons from Argentina illustrate just how radical the changes would need to be. |
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