With the trial of the 15 Andijon “terrorists” still ongoing, the West has decided that it isn’t interested in ongoing diplomatic talks with Karimov over the massacre. It’s more interested in isolating the regime. At the meeting of the OSCE, the U.S. fully condemned the Uzbek government for the actions that it took.

Uzbekistan????????s disregard for its OSCE commitments is undermining its security, the United States believes. The systemic failure to observe these basic rights has exacerbated circumstances in Uzbekistan and, we believe, is a radicalizing factor, Finley said.

The United States, European Union, United Nations and OSCE have called for an independent, international investigation into the facts surrounding the Andijon massacre.

By using the war on terror as an excuse to crackdown on all political opposition, as Finley correctly notes, the Uzbek government is just creating more of an incentive for the general population to radicalize. Killing literally hundreds and hundreds of people for protesting against the government is no way to stop whatever Islamic militants might be in the country. So far, as the Bush administration says, “Karimov fears democracy more than terrorism.”

Seriously, who is he trying to fool here? Nobody believes that Karimov seriously supports the war on terror, so he isn’t even useful as a short-term ally. And, long-term, his internal repression will only make the population turn to extremism, which means the region can only become more volatile. It is therefore in the West’s long-term interests to isolate the current government and boost as much as possible any pro-reform entities.

It looks like that’s what is about to happen. Even more than the U.S. criticism, the Europe will be imposing sactions on the Uzbek government because of the Andijon massacre.

29 September 2005 — Reports from Brussels say the European Union will impose sanctions on Uzbekistan — including visa bans and an arms embargo — for Tashkent’s refusal to allow an international probe into the violence that took place in Andijon in May.

The sanctions are due to be announced on 3 October during a meeting of EU foreign ministers.

Western news agencies cite the draft document as criticizing what it calls “the excessive, disproportionate, and indiscriminate use of force by the Uzbek security forces.”

The draft says the European Council has decided to impose an embargo on exports to Uzbekistan of arms, military equipment, and other equipment that might be used for “internal repression.”

Other measures include cuts to EU aid programs, and a renewed call on EU states to highlight the need for respect of human rights in all bilateral dealings with Tashkent.

The Foreign Ministry in Tashkent had no immediate comment.

I think it’s likely that the U.S. will soon follow suit with sanctions of its own. Of course, there is the new Central Asia Democracy Act, which requires the administration to reduce aid and cooperation with the Uzbek government in light of no progress on human rights issues, but something more immediate has not yet happened. But I think with the high-pitched criticism, something will happen soon, and should.

The reason I put “really?” in the title of this post is because for all of the isolation maneuvers the West is making, Uzbekistan remains open to another part of the world. Russia and China have backed up Karimov completely, reasserting the claim that Islamic terrorists were the organizers of the Andijon uprising, and that they sought the violent overthrow of the government. Of course, that’s completely false, but it has the effect of propping up the regime. Sure, Karimov is becoming isolated from the west, but that doesn’t mean complete isolation, which means that Russia and China are making it infinitely harder to put pressure for reform on Uzbekistan.

Now, all hope isn’t lost. If we remember correctly, Russia was exerting massive influence over countries like Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan. But pro-reform opposition was eventually able to mount to the point where external aid to the respective governments simply didn’t work. Hopefully that will be the case, even though Uzbekistan is notably more repressive on all counts than those countries. It will certainly be more difficult.

Nathan has a really good idea for the opposition. Given that Karimov is definitely more interested in saving his own power by putting down political opposition than fighting any real terrorists, and it’s becoming ever more apparent even to many inside Uzbekistan, “Pro-reform and genuinely interested in counterterrorism for counterterrorism????????s and regional security????????s sake (as opposed to the sake of one????????s own behind) is a pretty nice alternative to say the least. ”

As I said earlier, the moves that Karimov is making are actually hurting national and regional security by radicalizing people. Since an authoritarian govenrment like Karimov’s tries to make people believe that it is the end-all solution to everything, especially security, making people realize that the government isn’t serving the people’s interest and is even failing on this ground would really bolster the opposition and provide an opportunity to create a wedge in the government’s power.