Update

I'm gone today, and will be back tomorrow....

As if a bemused observer

Haley Barbour tells Newsmax that Republicans might have a shot in New York's gubernatorial race, but implicitly, says more than he probably means.

"This race is a lot more interesting since Carl Paladino became our party's nominee."

Pawlenty: Teachers union silences Rhee

Tim Pawlenty's created a bit of buzz by being the first prospect to deliver a say-it-aint-so to news that Michelle Rhee has resigned.

Our nation's capital is losing a superwoman in education. Michelle Rhee's resignation is more evidence of the corrosive impact of teachers' unions in American schools.

Despite -- or maybe because of -- the early success of her school reforms, the teachers' unions worked tirelessly to stop her, showing no compassion for the thousands of children stuck in failing D.C. schools.

Despite the teachers' unions' success in defeating Michelle Rhee, her leadership is inspiring to reformers everywhere and will make it harder for the unions to defend the failed status quo.

And if every crisis shouldn't be wasted -- as we've been told -- so every time a head of the D.C. Public schools resigns, a PAC shouldn't let the political opportunity drift away.

And thus, Tim Pawlenty's invitation on his Freedom First PAC:

Say YES to reform that puts children first, and NO to teacher's unions that stand in the way of making schools better.

Sign up today and take a stand!

If you sign up, you'll give your name, email, and zip code. Then you'll wait for an email, which will never come.

Which means it looks like this is a way for T-Paw to build up his email list.

Mondale rips Gingrich for "despicable" comments

While talking with NPR, Walter Mondale responds to Newt Gingrich's anti-colonial/Kenyan comments:

"It's despicable.

The president has grown up in America. He was in Indonesia as a child, but the rest of his life has been here. He's gone to great American schools; he's worked on the streets of Chicago.

That's why he got elected: people knew him. To talk as though he is some sort of alien from somewhere else who knows nothing about America is an outrage and Gingrich is good at that."

Joe Scarborough is probably nodding his head to the emphasis added text.

Stewart on Palin, O'Donnell

This isn't Jon Stewart, as seen on TV.

This is Jon Stewart -- as heard by a live audience in NYC for a sit-down with Terry Gross, where the Daily Show host reveals himself as the thoughtful, smart guy he is.

And that includes very good advice on how Democrats should approach Christine O'Donnell (and note -- it's not how Stewart as comedian would.

Sometimes you get the sense the Democratic party looks to Stewart and not Tim Kaine on how to treat these things):

"The last thing that I would suggest is that her witchcraft or masturbation stance should be what we should be thinking about or focusing on, and I think that's an enormous mistake that the Democrats will make.

We like to sit around the office and we have a little game called 'How will the Democrats blow it?' And that's the way they'll do it. They'll think somehow that that will resonate with voters, that 20 years ago Christine O'Donnell on MTV said 'Masturbation is a sin.' And they'll play it, and they'll ridicule it, and the voters will be like, 'Yeah, I don't have a job.' That's how they'll blow it."

And Stewart on Sarah Palin (via Matt Lewis).

"There's a difference between disagreeing with people, like newscasters on Fox News that I think are incorrect in their analysis of the days events, and people that threaten to kill you for putting a cartoon image of Mohammad in a bear suit [which is what "South Park" did].

And that's a line that we too often forget. And it's very easy to dehumanize -- and I will say in this room, I would imagine [Glenn] Beck and [Sarah] Palin are easier punching bags -- and we think of it as, 'Oh, my God, I'm so scared if they take over.' . . . And you know what, we will be fine. . . .

I think we always have to remember that people can be opponents, but not enemies. And there are enemies in the world. We just need the news media to help us delineate."

Barack Obama is not an enemy of America; Sarah Palin is not an enemy of America. Is that too hard to stomach for Americans?

Richard Land: Hillary will run

Dr. Richard Land, president of the influential Southern Baptist Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission, gives the other ideological side advice (and thus, needs an asterisk for possible mischief-making potential).

"If this is as bad as I think it's going to be, I'll make a prediction for you: Within 30 days [of the election results], Hillary Clinton will resign as secretary of state, and she will shortly after that announce that she's running for president.

She will say that Barack Obama abandoned the Israelis, [but] she will not; she will support Israel, and...the only thing that stands between the Democratic Party and a political debacle is Hillary Clinton."

Land is not and has never been a fan of Hillary Clinton.

During a lecture in 2008, Land warned that "Clinton would be parking her broom at the Supreme Court for 25 years" as Chief Justice if John Kerry had been elected President.

So whether his warning about a Hillary run is intended to strike fear in Obama's heart or in those who can't suffer the thought of Hillary is up for debate.

But if Hillary decides to skip the bloodfest that a Democratic nominating contest with Obama would be for the slightly less bloody affair of a three-way matchup with Obama and Sarah Palin, Fox News has got you covered with a recent three-way poll (pdf).

Barack Obama 30% Sarah Palin 29% Hillary Clinton 27%.

In more colloquial terms, it would be a toss-up, a barn-burner, a heart-stopper, and the political equivalent of the race between Saving Private Ryan and Shakespeare in Love for the 1998 Oscar for Best Picture.

Report: Obama expects to run against Huckabee

Mike Allen pulls a fascinating nugget from Peter Baker's upcoming, Sunday N.Y. Times Magazine feature, "Education of President."

Obama advisers expect to incorporate the reelection campaign around March and think the Tea Party ultimately will reelect him by pulling Republican nominee to the right.

They doubt Sarah Palin will run, figure Mitt Romney can’t get nomination because of his Massachusetts health care program and guess that Obama may end up running against Mike Huckabee.

I'll be interesting to read the whole piece on Sunday. Is this a case of public posturing or private concern?

If it's the latter, the irony is that top Democratic bigwigs give Huck a better shot than Republicans do.

Thune: Democrats waging "war on the West"

John Thune, while campaigning in Colorado yesterday for Senatorial candidate, Ken Buck.

.... there is today, ladies and gentlemen, going on in Washington DC, a war on the West.

There are policies coming out of Washington that are completely counter, completely anti to what makes this part of the country tick."

Huck: The electorate is catching up with me

The conventional wisdom is that if Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin decide to run, they'll fight each other for socially conservative voters, and that's probably true.

But, in this climate, it's more likely that the major battle will be for tea party support, and that group of voters doesn't always intersect with the socially- conservative base.

That's why Mike Huckabee's words this morning and throughout the past two years are so interesting -- it's clear he's not about to concede the tea party to Palin.

Yesterday, he told Harry Smith that the spirit of the tea party lived in his '08 campaign, if not the ballot box.

"I was four years too early, Harry, obviously.

But I think that there was a sense of discontent that was beginning to brew, and I was speaking to it. But obviously it's grown."

And he's been one of the leading critics of TARP, an issue that has to do as much with what it symbolizes as what it actually was (and incidentally, an issue that Palin has been more reluctant to broach because she once supported it; and Romney, more reluctant to talk about, because he still supports it).

Huck recently told Politico.

“Every person who voted for it is going to have explain if not apologize for their vote on it."

And he's been similarly angry over other issues near and dear to the tea party heart, telling Fox News that the electorate feels "a sustained burn.... anger, frustration, rage".

Then there's been Huck's disaffection with the Republican establishment, a familiar feeling for tea party supporters.

Sarah Palin might be getting the most attention for her attacks on the "machine", but Huckabee's rhetoric has been just as pointed.

Earlier this month, he said:

"I've never been an establishment kind of guy.

They've never been all that enamored with me, nor I of them, and in terms of just a visceral, emotional attachment, [I identify] probably more with the dissidents and insurgents of the tea party."

And last month, he was caught in Arkansas in one of the more fiery broadsides against the party hierarchy you'll find, Palin's attacks on Karl Rove, notwithstanding.

Huck:

"I think the Republican establishment in D.C. is getting spanked and deserves it.

Frankly, I'm thrilled that they're getting a little kicking in the backside over the races like in Delaware, because there has been this elitist and pompous, contemptuous attitude toward a lot of the grassroots."

So he's been making appeals to both the issues of the tea party and the less tangible sentiment of distrust toward D.C. Republicans. That's a checklist Sarah Palin's been working on, too.

Now, remember when I started this post by noting that the tea party has usurped socially-conservative voters as Huck and Palin's intended audience?

To bring that full circle, I came across a very interesting clip of Huck while he was on Greta Van Susteren's show in April -- he actually uses the Christian Coalition playbook to springboard into tea party issues.

The tangible result? A tea party voter guide.

"Often people thought that the Christian Coalition back in the '80's and early 90's was primarily a Republican front. It really was not. It just was that Republicans tended to agree with them more on issues of traditional marriage and pro-life. But they had their issues. You either came to them or you didn't. And if you did, then voter guides helped you, and if you didn't, then the voter guides that they would distribute hurt you.

The tea party could do something along that line of a voter guide, coming up with questions that they would ask candidates, that candidates would answer. [For example] Will you support a balanced budget amendment, will you support reduced spending, will you support and, you know, list the things that are important to them."

So the big question is this: where do Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty fit in if both Huck and Palin are laying strong claims to the angst and economic populism of the tea partiers, as well as the socially conservative inclinations of other key segments of the GOP electorate?

That's what Pawlenty and Romney are going to have to figure out.

Bachmann raised $5.4 million last quarter

Today is a day of big hauls for Republican female candidates and prospects -- Sharron Angle took in an extraordinary $14 million last quarter, Sarah Palin's PAC took in an impressive $1.2 million, and Michele Bachmann's campaign announced it raised $5.4 million since July.

Eric Roper puts it in perspective.

That's more than any Minnesota congressional candidate has raised in an entire election... The $5 million boost brings Bachmann's fundraising total this cycle to just about $10 million.

And... she reportedly has over $3.4 million cash-on-hand.

Evening eats

Thomas Hobbes said that life is "nasty, brutish, and short." And the final 21 days of the election promise to be, as well.

And so:

a. Tonight... Rick Santorum vs. Howard Dean.

b. Monday... Levi Johnston vs. Elisabeth Hasselbeck.

c. On the radio... A slightly more serious candidate than Alvin Greene vs. Jim DeMint.

d. At the bank... Harry Reid vs. Sharron Angle.

e. In Minnesota... Michele Bachman vs. Nancy Pelosi, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama.

f. At a fundraiser.... John Bolton vs. Excitement.

g. Without Kendrick Meek... Charlie Crist vs. Marco Rubio.

h. George Pataki... Green fatigue vs. our future.

i. 2012... Obama vs. Electoral Math.

j. In South Dakota.... the next Sarah Palin (?) vs. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin.

k. On the screen.... Jay-Z vs. the unemployment rate.

Would you rather work for Palin or Obama?

HR solutions company, Adecco, polled 1,000 American adults to see which celebrity boss they'd like to work for the most.

Respondents were given thirteen names; then allowed to pick three.

Oprah Winfrey showed up on the highest percentage of ballots; Tony Hayward of BP, the lowest.

Sarah Palin fared well, though the numbers suggest more people would rather serve in an Obama administration than a Palin one.

1. Oprah Winfrey 37%

2. Barack Obama 35%

3. Donald Trump 28%

4. Michelle Obama 26%

5. W. Bush 19%

6. Arnold Schwarzenegger 16%

7. Sarah Palin 15%

8. Martha Stewart 14%

9. Jack Welch 12%

10. Mark Zuckerberg (aka the face of Facebook) 9%

10. Joe Torre 9%

12. Simon Cowell 8%

13. Tony Hayward 4%

[Hat tip: Business Insider]

Scott Brown, Obama to cross paths in Rhode Island

Michelle Smith, on a visit with a few story lines.

The Republican who succeeded the late Sen. Edward Kennedy in the Senate is heading to Rhode Island to campaign for the Republican who hopes to succeed Kennedy's son in Congress.

Congressional candidate John Loughlin's campaign says Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown will fundraise and campaign with him on Oct. 25, the same day President Obama is coming for a fundraiser with Democratic Congressional candidate David Cicilline.

Helen Thomas on Hillary, Palin

She doesn't like either in an interview with WMRN-AM in Ohio.

Thomas described Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton as "a hawk." "I thought women in politics would have more compassion, be more liberal," Thomas said.

As for Sarah Palin, Thomas said she believed the former Alaska governor and Republican vice presidential candidate was ambitious enough to run for president.

"That would be a tragedy, a national tragedy," she said, describing Palin as "very conservative, reactionary, unbelievable."

And it turns out Thomas might be the great-great-great-great-great grandmother of Rick Sanchez.

"I hit the third rail. You cannot criticize Israel in this country and survive."

[Hat tip: Dan Riehl]

Jindal still mum on Vitter

Bobby Jindal seems tired of questions about whether or not he'll eventually endorse David Vitter.

“We don’t get involved in every race and certainly, if something changes, we’ll let you know.”

Last month, Jindal supposedly closed the topic:

"Voters can make up their own minds."

But the next day his chief spokeswoman sort of opened the door again with a cryptic remark:

"The governor hasn't gotten involved in the Senate race yet."

SarahPAC pulls in over $1.2 million

Ken Vogel reports on SarahPAC's big take, which covered July through the end of September, 2010, and was almost 50% more than her next highest mark.

.... Perhaps more significant for Palin’s own operation was SarahPAC’s substantial investment in fundraising, which has helped her build a base of mostly small donors.

The report shows SarahPAC spent $205,000 on direct mail solicitations, $38,000 on internet fundraising and $40,000 on finance consulting.

Pence to headline big GOP dinner in Florida

In another sign of his spreading national buzz, Mike Pence is headed to Hillsborough County (Florida's fourth most populous) on October 21 to headline the local Reagan Day Dinner.

Earlier this month, Pence visited Iowa, where he wryly noted that the media would take notice.

“The old saying is ‘nobody ever comes to Iowa by accident’ and, for the media in the room let me be clear, I did come to Iowa on purpose and my purpose is to ask the people of Iowa to help us end the Pelosi-led Congress once and for all."

UPDATE: CBN's David Brody gets to Pence after a quick process of elimination.

Look, here's the deal. If Mike Pence does run for President, he could thread the needle and wind up as the GOP nominee.

Why? Every single potential GOP candidate has baggage: Newt (marriage/morality), Palin (Intellectual heft), Huckabee (Past record on taxes and capital punishment), Romney (Massachusetts healthcare and Mormonism), John Thune (voted for TARP), Mitch Daniels (Downplaying social issues), Haley Barbour (see Mitch Daniels), Tim Pawlenty (Fire in the belly?)

McDonnell: We started it

Bob McDonnell reminds people that he and Chris Christie were electoral trailblazers.

"We're kind of the beginning of the wave. We both won independent voters. We both had a 24, 25 swing from President Obama the year before. We kind of showed something was going on in the country."

After they won their respective races, it was McDonnell who got the 2012 questions, and not Christie.

And even though McDonnell ruled out a run, he wasn't as firm about a veep spot on a ticket.

Daniels: Presidential decision after April

Mitch Daniels says he's not ruling out a run, but he is ruling out a decision before spring.

Daniels has said he's totally focused on the business of the state right now and if he decides to run, it will be after the Indiana General Assembly breaks in April 2011.

So far, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich have all said they'll decide sometime early next year, with Newt most recently extending his deadline until March.

Santorum in Iowa, New Hampshire this week

Rick Santorum will be in Iowa this week for the sixth time since the 2008 election, and New Hampshire for the fifth time.

His Iowa engagements (October 13-14) include luncheons, rallies and fundraisers.

On Friday, he'll fly to Manchester, New Hampshire, where he'll continue making a bid for socially-conservative voters by keynoting Cornerstone-Action's Annual Steward of the Family Dinner Awards banquet.

Full info here.

Christie's approval rating rises

A new Fairleigh Dickinson/PublicMind poll shows Chris Christie's approval rating in New Jersey jumping to 51% approving and 37% disapproving.

Earlier this year, the group polled him at 43%/32%.

These numbers are quite a bit different from a recent Rutgers/Eagleton poll, which put Christie in negative territory, 45%/52%.

Still, while the substance of the Rutgers poll diverges, the trendline doesn't -- Christie's numbers improved by 6% since Rutgers' previous poll, so the bounce seems to be real.

Newt raises money in D.C.

The Fix:

Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) is holding a fundraiser for his American Solutions political action committee in Washington today, according to an invitation obtained by the Fix, an event sure to stoke speculation about his interest in a 2012 presidential bid.

The fundraiser, which will be held at the Caucus Room, has three levels of giving: host ($5,000 contribution), co-host ($2,500) and $1,000 contribution to attend.

While we're on the topic, Joe Scarborough writes up a column today, warning Gingrich that his rhetorical flourishes will backfire.

I think that's debatable, because as Scarborough himself says:

By tossing red meat at media talkers, Newt keeps himself in the middle of the shout fests that erupt among competing organizations. That, in turn, keeps him on blogs and talk radio, which helps sell more books, which helps him rack up millions of dollars.

Let’s face it. Rage is a good business for Newt Gingrich, whether he’s being praised by the extreme right or panned by the extreme left.

Right now, the fire is much warmer and stronger than the backfire.

Poll: Obama beats Palin by 16%

A new Bloomberg poll (pdf) shows Barack Obama beating Sarah Palin in a hypothetical 2012 matchup, 51%-35%.

Those big numbers are reflected in each candidates favorability ratings.

Obama 53%/44%.
S
Palin 38%/54%.

There's not a lot of room for Palin to maneuver here. 35% view her "very unfavorably", a higher number than those who view Obama (26%), Glenn Beck (27%), and George W. Bush (30%) very unfavorably.

That being said -- there is a national political figure polling worse than Palin, and that's Nancy Pelosi, who's at a net unfavorable rating of -18%.

[Hat tip: The Hill]

Palin: It's up to you

Sarah Palin talks to Newsmax about her 2012 plans, with a nod toward her strength (taking on the establishment) and weakness (electability).

She chats about it very casually, but it's the beginning of an argument -- that there's a clear choice between her and more conventional candidates.

"I just think that anyone is foolish to prematurely close any door that perhaps will be open for them, but I also know that really, it isn't my call.

It is the people of America -- whether they would be ready for someone a bit unconventional, out-of-the box, be used to taking on the establishment on both sides of the aisle, or if they want someone a little bit more conventional, maybe more electable, and that's who they would support.

I just wouldn't close the door to the idea, but [I am] very, very focused on the midterms."

Watch video here.

Fiorina: Palin is qualified

During an interview with CNN today, one of Sarah Palin's high-profile endorsees from a much more liberal state went further than Joe Miller.

CA Sen. candidate, Carly Fiorina, on Palin:

"I certainly think she's qualified to be president of the United States."

Joe Miller, answering the same question last week.

"We know that we have a constitutional requirement for somebody that's gonna run for President. Of course, she's qualified."