• Ad Watch: Wild thing

    From NBC's Ali Weinberg and Alison Bruno
    Sharron Angle and Harry Reid (and their surrogates) release new ads today in anticipation of their first and only debate tonight… Pat Toomey touts his "Lifelong Democrat" supporters… In MO-4, Republican Vicky Hartzler uses Rep. Ike Skelton's words on the House floor against him… In PA-11, Lou Barletta puts out an ad that has Rep. Paul Kanjorski's camp crying ageism… and Harold Johnson in NC-8 tells voters to stop the Kissell/Pelosi agenda.

    NV SEN, Reid "Wild"

    10/14

    ANNCR: Sharron Angle voted against background checks to identify sex predators. She's against enforcing restraining orders that protect victims of domestic violence. She says rape victims should be forced to have the baby. Sharron Angle would wipe out Social Security. Medicare. And she'd privatize the VA. RENO MAYOR BOB CASHELL: Oh she's wild, she's wild, and with the wild ideas she has, we would never get anything done. REID: I'm Harry Reid, and I approve this message.

    NV SEN, Angle "300"
    10/13

    ANGLE: I'm Sharron Angle, and I approve this message. ANNCR: You're looking at every time Harry Reid voted to raise taxes. Income taxes, taxes on Social Security, taxes on small businesses, even the dreaded death tax. A staggering 300 times Reid voted to raise taxes. And it's a big reason for Nevada's economic meltdown. Now Reid and Pelosi are planning to raise taxes on 34,000,000 families right after the election. Let's stop Harry Reid from ever raising our taxes again.

    NV SEN, Reid (Vote Vets) "Highway"
    10/13

    NV VET TONY FUNCHES: High school was 46 miles away. They said going would be impossible. So he walked and hitched his way. 46 every Monday, 46 back come Friday. Asked his girlfriend's father for her hand, he growled and said 'impossible.' Five children and sixteen grandchildren later, he and his girlfriend are still holding hands. Everyone knows a nobody could never get elected to office. Impossible? He proved them wrong again. A nobody from Nevada could never become the most powerful man in the Senate. Never single-handedly stop Yucca Mountain. Never bring Nevada thousands of jobs, or be the one to demand that our veterans be treated with dignity and honor. For those would be impossible. Reelection? Some say darn close to impossible. Throw them all out. But in this day, this time of world-wide distress, we think Nevada needs him and that determination more than ever. So let's send him back, where he'll keep quietly, patiently, doggedly doing what he's always done for us. Yup: the impossible. Vote Vets Action Fund is responsible for the content of this advertising" (Youtube, 10/12).

    NV SEN, anti-Reid (Crossroads GPS) "Story"
    10/10

    ANNCR: Harry Reid. Champion of liberal special interests inside the beltway. Disconnected from Nevada and its residents. The Obama playbook to which Senator Reid hitched his fortunes has failed miserably. A vote for Harry Reid is a vote for the status quo in Washington. More of the same big spending. More of the same disdain for the job-creating private sector. Nevada just can't afford more of the same old Harry Reid. Crossroads GPS is responsible for the content of this advertising.

    PA SEN, Toomey "Lifelong Democrat"
    10/14

    MAN: I'm a lifelong Democrat, but this year I'm voting for Pat Toomey. Washington has gotten so extreme and Joe Sestak is a big part of it. The health care law went too far, even forcing changes to my Medicare coverage. The bailouts and the spending are exploding the debt, leaving our grandkids with the bill. I'm more comfortable with Pat Toomey. He'll bring balance to Washington.

    Lifelong Democrat from Pat Toomey on Vimeo.

    MO-4, Hartzler, "Change for the Worse"
    10/13

    HARTZLER: "I'm Vicky Hartzler and I approve this message, because we deserve better." ANNCR: "Ike Skelton, on what we could do if we disagree with Nancy Pelosi's extreme agenda." SKELTON: "Stick it up your a**." ANNCR: "If we object to Skelton's vote for new energy taxes that would cost us over 50,000 jobs, and nearly double our utility bills." SKELTON: "Stick it up your a**." ANNCR: "Or Skelton's support for giving illegal immigrants welfare benefits, free education, even amnesty."

    PA-11, Barletta, "It's Been Too Long"
    10/8

    ANNCR: "Know a guy who wears out his welcome? Paul Kanjorski has just been around too long. Long enough to get 10 pay raises and raise taxes 150 times. Long enough to bail out his donors on Wall Street. And cost us millions of jobs. Long enough to steer millions of taxpayer dollars to his family. Paul Kanjorski. Simply long enough." KANJORSKI: "I'm Paul Kanjorski and I approve this message."

    NC-8, Johnson, "Kissell's Gone Washington"
    10/14

    ANNCR: Larry Kissell's gone Washington. A politician not truthful with the facts. KISSELL: Let's take our country back. ANNCR: Kissell's the problem. He votes with Nancy Pelosi 96% of the time. The failed stimulus. Federal bailout. Piling up trillions in debt. Killing jobs. Kissell voted to give tax credits to firms employing foreign workers in Communist China. Now Kissell falsely attacks Harold Johnson. KISSELL: Let's take our country back. ANNCR: You want your country back? Stop the Kissell-Pelosi agenda.

  • Obama admin. to appeal DADT ruling


    The Justice Department has asked a federal court to put a hold on the judge's order this week that declared the military's "Don't ask, don't tell" policy unconstitutional.

    "The Government intends to appeal the Court's decision. During the pendency of that appeal, the military should not be required to suddenly and immediately restructure a major personnel policy that has been in place for years, particularly during a time when the Nation is involved in combat operations overseas," said Clifford Stanley, Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness in documents filed this afternoon in a California federal court. The magnitude of repealing the DADT law and policy is demonstrated by the Department's ongoing efforts to study the implications of repealing DADT."

    What's more, Stanley says, "an injunction before the appeal in this case has run its course will place gay and lesbian servicemembers in a position of grave uncertainty. If the Court's decision were later reversed, the military would be faced with the question of whether to discharge any servicemembers who have revealed their sexual orientation in reliance on this Court's decision and injunction. Such an injunction therefore should not be entered before appellate review has been completed."

  • Illinois candidate unamused by misspelling

    You can file this one under less-than-optimal typos:

    From the Chicago Sun-Times:

    The last name of Green Party gubernatorial candidate Rich Whitney is misspelled as "Whitey" on electronic-voting machines in nearly two dozen wards -- about half in predominantly African-American areas -- and election officials said Wednesday the problem cannot be corrected by Election Day.

    Whitney, the paper reports, is considering legal action to fix the mix-up before Election Day. He told the Sun-Times that the error may be the result of "machine politics."

    "In any event, whether it is or not, this has to be disconcerting to a voter," he said.

  • The kids aren't alright: Obama and the youth vote

    If you're under 30 and registered to vote, the president – along with his political advisers – is talkin' 'bout your generation.

    President Barack Obama will made an appeal to youth voters Thursday in a commercial-free "youth town hall" broadcast on BET, MTV and CMT – his second event this week focused on energizing a key voting bloc for his party.

    Young people have provided substantial boosts for the Democratic Party for the last three election cycles, lending the lion's share of their support to Democratic candidates in presidential and congressional races in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

    And they were particularly visible participants in Obama's campaign, appearing in unprecedented droves at campaign events and donating money at higher-than-usual rates. Two-thirds of voters under 30 backed Obama in the 2008 election – a percentage that made the disparity between young and older voters the largest in the history of exit polling.

    But can the man who rode what looked like a spectacular generational wave two years ago inspire young people to turn out for somebody named Michael Bennet or Russ Feingold or Joe Sestak?

    Peter Levine, the director of the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, sees why the strategy is an appealing one to the White House. "Campaigning to young people generally works," he says. "And it's cost-effective. It's a good place to put your money because young voters aren't usually being targeted by other groups, so your message isn't diluted."

    In tight statewide races like those in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – where the president has recently held rallies targeting young people – a small uptick in youth turnout could help Democrats beat expectations of the much-talked-about "enthusiasm gap" between the president's party and the opposition.

    "This is an interesting strategy and it's a good group for him to go after, but the yield is not going to be dramatic," says Scott Keeter, director of survey research at the Pew Research Center. "He's trying to make sure [youth turnout] doesn't fall below 2006 levels."

    That could be tough. According to Pew's measures, the percentage of young Democrats who say they have "given a lot of thought" to the upcoming election has plummeted 20 points since the last off-year election in 2006. (Young people who identify as Republicans, by contrast, are even more engaged now than they were during the 1994 midterms.)

    That doesn't mean that young people's political affiliations have changed dramatically since 2006, although there has been some narrowing of Democrats' advantage with youth voters since 2008. In 2006, 52 percent of voters under 30 described themselves as Democrats or Democratic-leaning; that number jumped to 62 percent in 2008 and is back to 56 percent now.

    But they're just not all that interested in the election.

    In the latest NBC/WSJ poll, only 23 percent of voters aged 18 to 34 said that they have a high level of interest in the 2010 elections, compared to almost 50 percent of all respondents.

    Democrats are generally less engaged than Republicans this midterm cycle, Keeter says, and that trend is even slightly exaggerated among young people, who have been hit particularly hard by the economic recession.

    "Objectively, young people may actually have been hurt by the recession more than many older voters," he says, adding that they're likely to have difficulty finding jobs without prior experience and are more vulnerable to firings than longtime employees.

    "The fact that they're still loyal to Democrats is somewhat amazing," Keeter says. "Young people aren't angry at the party in power, but the toll has come in their level of enthusiasm."

    Another reason that young people might not turn out, Levine adds, is their feeling that Obama's hopeful campaign messages have not resonated in his presidency.

    "They voted overwhelmingly for a particular flavor of change," Levine says. "They're either still hopeful or disappointed, and persistent unemployment for a young person is pretty disappointing."

  • Mixing it up in Washington's Third District

    From msnbc.com's Tom Curry:

    LONGVIEW, Wash. -- The race in Washington's Third Congressional District is crucial for control of the House. With ballots in voters' mailboxes in the next few days, neither GOP candidate Jaime Herrera nor Democrat Denny Heck appear to have a significant lead even though political observers have seen the race trending toward the Republican in recent weeks. The two are vying for the seat being vacated by retiring Democrat, Rep. Brian Baird.

    The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee may have written off some House seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania and other states, but a DCCC operative was with Heck at Wednesday's debates and this still seems a race Democrats might win even in a bad year for the party. A new poll in The Hill Wednesday showed the race statistically tied. The race is a good test district of the national mood, because it is a pure toss up with no ideological leaning one way or another and split evenly between Democratic and Republican voters.

    In their first two face-to-face debates Wednesday, Herrera, in contrast to the older, more aggressive, and wonkish Heck, came off as young, (she's 31), earnest, rather tense, and given to answering questions with generalities instead of specifics. in the second debate Wednesday night in Longview, Wash., she entirely skirted the question of what specific cuts she would make in federal spending

    Herrera had one seemingly spontaneous and personal moment in the first debate in Lacey, Wash., when asked to name the biggest mistake she has made in her life. "There were times I used credit cards to make ends meet. ... It is a big, big mistake ... I learned it is OK to not have a lot, it is OK to not have a brand-new car," she said.

    Heck, 58, a long-term Democratic insider as an ex-state legislator, former chief of staff to Gov. Booth Gardner in the 1990s, and candidate for state education superintendent, seemed by far the more self-assured candidate.

    Given the $1.3 trillion deficit, Heck's cost savings ideas may have sounded either small-bore (a ten percent pay cut for members of Congress which he insisted "isn't a gimmick") or untried on jittery 85-year old Medicare recipients (comparative effectiveness research in order to deter less useful medical procedures).

    But at least Heck's offerings were specific. Herrera offered no specific cuts in either debate. (After the Longview debate, when pressed for details, she said wanted $270 billion of unspent stimulus funds returned to taxpayers and elimination of bureaucracies created by Obama's health care bill.)

    If you were a deficit hawk, you couldn't help noticing that Heck proposed more spending increases than spending cuts: he urged more outlays on the federal Title I education program, more money for educating handicapped children, more infrastructure spending, more spending on Mount St. Helens National Volcanic Monument, and a new tax break for buying American-made machinery (what's called a "tax expenditure" in budget lingo).

    At the Longview event Herrera faced an audience which included hostile Heck partisans who often booed, mocked, and heckled her, shouting "Answer the question" when she didn't supply specifics to a question about how to improve American education.

    Heck got one brief bout of abuse from Herrera partisans in the crowd when he said he supported an estate tax "because I believe there is a danger in the accumulated concentration of wealth."

    At one point Heck turned on Herrera and scolded her for repeatedly saying he supported cap-and-trade legislation. "Unless you can provide proof that I've ever said that I would vote for that bill, I would kindly thank you for stop saying that which is not true."

    Heck bad-mouthed the stimulus as spending too little and too slowly on infrastructure and not channeling enough money to this congressional district and other high unemployment areas. But flawed execution, Heck said after the first debate, "is not a reason never to do it again or never to try again."

    Herrera inexplicably failed to avail herself of the candid remark President Obama made in Wednesday's New York Times about the stimulus program. What he'd discovered in retrospect, the president said, was that "there's no such thing as shovel-ready projects." It seemed a line tailor-made for assailing Heck's support for the stimulus, but Herrera said instead "over the last two years we've seen that when government takes and spends more of our money, they can't get it right."

    If Herrera wins, it may be in spite of her soft-spoken and less aggressive debate style and because she offers herself as the candidate of change: "If the economy is where you'd like to see it, then don't change direction."

    If Heck wins, in a district that Republicans ought to win if it's a wave election, then maybe 2010 isn't shaping up to be a wave year. Or perhaps this will turn out to be one race where the more self-assured and hard-punching candidate wins despite a national tide which looks ready to pull down Democrats in other districts.

  • First Thoughts: I want my MTV

    Why Obama is focusing on younger voters… His MTV/BET/CMT town hall is at 4:00 pm ET… Is something going on Alaska's Senate race? Don't forget about Scott McAdams… Breaking down the movement in other key Senate contests… Mark Kirk and Alex Sink unable to pull away against their flawed opponents… VCI update: -40… Michelle Obama in CO, Bill Clinton in NM, and Joe Biden in IN… Four Senate debates to watch today… Is Blumenthal beginning to pull away in CT?... And spotlight on HI-1.


    *** I want my MTV… : Once again today, President Obama is focused on turning out young voters. At 4:00 pm ET, he participates in a town hall that's being broadcast live on MTV, BET, and CMT. Why is he spending his time on young voters and not, say, Democratic-leaning seniors (the Washington Post notes that likely senior voters are breaking the GOP's way, while less likely senior voters are potential Dem votes)? Our take: Democrats are dividing up the labor. Obama is working on young voters -- who often take the most time and effort to turn out -- and African Americans. That leaves other Dem targets (like soft seniors and soft labor) to the Democratic candidates and Dem-leaning groups themselves. Turning out younger voters is hard and expensive so at this point, it probably makes the most sense for DNC/Obama to do this. By the way, the DNC is up with a new TV ad (airing on BET and MSNBC) featuring footage of Obama's recent rallies with young voters in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

    *** Is something going on in Alaska? It very well could be that Alaska's three-way Senate contest is more of a contest than Florida's three-way. Consider: Scott McAdams (D) has raised a significant amount of money by Alaska standards ($685,000 in the past quarter) and his ads are compelling (the Hulk tie and the Inouye endorsement were interesting tributes to Ted Stevens); Joe Miller (R) hasn't been running a very good race (see: his press conference announcing that he wouldn't take questions about his past); and there is uncertainty (anecdotally from folks in the Anchorage business community) that Lisa Murkowski can't win a write-in campaign. In fact, the McAdams fundraising surge (again, by Alaska standards) may be evidence that some in Anchorage biz community are their hedging bets. Bottom line: Don't be surprised if we begin to see a McAdams surge, or if we begin to see some outside groups jump and, well, muck around.

    *** How the rest of the Senate map looks: Here's our understanding of how other Senate races are trending today, per conservations with Democrats and Republicans over the last 48 hours. First, Democrats have some momentum in Illinois (which is a Toss Up contest) and in Pennsylvania (which we have had Lean Republican). Second, both Colorado (Toss Up) and Wisconsin (Toss Up) appear to be moving toward the Republicans a bit. Third, we don't think anyone has a handle on Nevada, which seems like a pure 50%-50% race -- or, because of "none of the above" and other third-party candidates on the ballot, 45%-45%. And fourth, Democrats seem to have solidified their standing in Connecticut (Lean Democrat) and in California (Toss Up), though we'll know more next week. And then there's Washington, where Murray looked like she was solidifying and now that seems to have moved back into a pure Toss Up. If the GOP can put away either CO or WI quickly, don't be surprised if Rossi becomes beneficiary. As for West Virginia, it's another pure Toss Up, as Manchin has appeared to stop the bleeding for now, thanks to the "hicky" business.

    *** Kirk and Sink unable to pull away: Speaking of Illinois, the fact that Mark Kirk (R) has been unable to pull away from Alexi Giannoulias (D) -- despite Giannoulias' bank woes -- has to be one of the Republicans' biggest disappointments this general-election cycle. Indeed, the mirror image appears to be playing out in Florida's gubernatorial contest, where Alex Sink (D) hasn't been able to pull away from Rick Scott (R), despite Scott's problems with his old Columbia/HCA hospital chain. Both Kirk and Sink could very well win next month. But both also shouldn't be in dead heats right now. Does this mean they are running the most lackluster campaigns of the cycle? Perhaps, at least right now.

    *** Our latest VCI update: -40: Voters' level of confidence has appeared to solidify before this 2010 midterm election. And it's not good news for the Democrats. For the second straight month, NBC's Voter Confidence Index shows President Obama and Democrats near -40. September's VCI average was -39, and with a spate of polls out this month, it is now exactly -40. That is worse than President Clinton and the Democrats in 1994 (VCI: -30) when Democrats lost 54 seats in the House, and worse than Ronald Reagan and the Republican in 1982 (VCI: -35), when the GOP lost 26 House seats. It remains better than former President George W. Bush in 2006 (VCI: -65), when Republicans lost 30 seats. More on the VCI here and here.

    *** First lady still on the trail: After hitting Wisconsin and Illinois yesterday, First Lady Michelle Obama is in Colorado, campaigning for Sen. Michael Bennet. Elsewhere, former President Bill Clinton stumps in New Mexico for Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, who's running for governor. And Vice President Biden stumps for Indiana Senate nominee Brad Ellsworth.

    *** Four Senate debates to watch: The marquee debate is in Nevada, where Harry Reid (D) and Sharron Angle (R) face off. Other debates today: Jack Conway (D) vs. Rand Paul (R) in Kentucky, Roy Blunt (R) vs. Robin Carnahan (D) in Missouri, and Dino Rossi (R) vs. Patty Murray (D) in Washington state.

    *** Is Blumenthal beginning to pull away? In Connecticut's Senate contest, a new Quinnipiac poll shows Richard Blumenthal leading Linda McMahon by 11 points among likely voters, 54%-43%. That's a significant change from Blumenthal's three-point lead in the poll late last month. (Did Quinnipiac tinker with its likely-voter model?) A front-page New York Times story notes how McMahon appears to be struggling with female voters.

    *** 75 House races to watch: HI-1: The GOP nominee is first term Rep. Charles Djou, who was elected in a May special election to fill the seat vacated by Neil Abercrombie (D), who's running for governor. The Dem nominee is state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa. In 2008, Obama won 70% of the vote in this district – which represents Honolulu – while Kerry got 53% in 2004. As of Aug. 29, Djou had nearly $430,000 in the bank, versus Hanabusa's $400,000. Cook and Rothenberg rate the race as a Toss Up.

    Countdown to Election Day 2010: 19 days

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  • Obama agenda: Michelle Obama's day on the trail

    The AP on First Lady Michelle Obama's campaigning: "The two-state Midwest swing was the first time the popular first lady has hit the campaign trail since her husband's 2008 election. Over the next two weeks, she has other stops planned in Colorado, Connecticut, New York, Washington, California and a joint rally Sunday with her husband in Ohio. Obama talked about her husband's accomplishments in office but acknowledged there was still work to be done." She said she would cast her ballot today in Chicago and encouraged others to vote early.

    The Washington Post: "Her presence on the trail, a welcome one for struggling Democrats in need of money and a re-energized base, adds another layer to Obama's role as first lady - one she, like other first ladies, took to with some reluctance but then seemed to embrace. In highly personal terms, Obama lays out the case for her husband's agenda, vouching for his policies and who he is as a person, and urge support for Democrats locked in tight races."

    In Wisconsin, "Mrs. Obama lauded Feingold for supporting health care reform and campaign finance reform, and for fighting to create jobs and cut taxes. She also touted Feingold's maverick credentials, saying the president has mentioned how Feingold doesn't always agree with him. 'So Russ, you and I have a little something in common,' she said, drawing laughter."

    "President Obama's former car czar Steve Rattner will fork over $5 million to the feds for his role in a massive state pension fund pay-to-play scandal," the New York Daily News reports. "In addition to paying the Securities and Exchange Commission, Rattner will be barred from working in the securities industry, a source with knowledge of the deal said."

  • Yesterday's debates

    ARIZONA: "The son of former Vice President Dan Quayle and his Democratic opponent in Arizona's 3rd Congressional District focused on questioning each other's character in their only televised debate Wednesday, doing little to differentiate themselves on the issues. Democrat Jon Hulburd got things started by questioning Republican Ben Quayle about his involvement with a sex-steeped Arizona website, repeatedly asking him why he would want to draw Internet traffic to the racy site."

    ARKANSAS: The AP on the Lincoln-Boozman debate: "Democratic Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln repeatedly painted herself as an independent voice and moderate lawmaker on Wednesday during her second debate with her Republican challenger Rep. John Boozman, who sought to link the two-term senator to President Barack Obama and his agenda. Lincoln, who trails Boozman in most polls and is viewed as one of the Senate's most vulnerable incumbents this year, emphasized her ability to work with Republicans and Democrats and said she bows to no political agenda."

    CONNECTICUT: The AP wraps yesterday's gubernatorial debate: "The Republican candidate for governor in Connecticut promised not to raise taxes while his Democratic opponent said he couldn't make that pledge during a debate Wednesday night."


    DELAWARE: The AP on the Coons-O'Donnell debate: Trailing by double-digits in most polls, Republican Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell went on the offensive Wednesday, attacking Democrat Chris Coons as a career politician with Marxist views who would raise taxes and rubber-stamp Democratic policies. Coons, meanwhile, during a nationally televised debate portrayed O'Donnell as an extremist more interested in clever sound bites than offering solutions to the problems confronting the nation."

    The New York Daily News: "Christine O'Donnell's first debate with her opponent was no cup of tea. The GOP nominee for Delaware's Senate seat and Tea Party darling went on the attack Wednesday night against her Democratic opponent, Chris Coons, but found herself mostly on the defensive."

    In a debate last night, Republican Christine O'Donnell "stuck to her theme of smaller government and lower taxes, and returned to attacks against Coons for his tax increases as New Castle County executive," the Wilmington News-Journal reported. Democrat Chris Coons "highlighted his proposed programs, criticizing O'Donnell for a lack of specifics."

    More from the debate: "When asked to name a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision that she disagreed with, O'Donnell was unable to name one. 'Oh gosh, give me a specific one,' O'Donnell responded. When [the moderator] told O'Donnell she had to think of one herself, she said she would post one on her website later. Coons cited the Citizens United decision, which ruled that corporations could spend unlimited funds on political advertisements."

    "At one point, O'Donnell referred to multiple skits on Saturday Night Live, spoofing her as a witch," the Philadelphia Inquirer recounts. "'You're just jealous you weren't on Saturday Night Live,' she said to Coons. 'I'm dying to know who will play me, Christine,' he said."

    Mike Castle says he won't endorse.

    MASSACHUSETTS: "Hours before a judge heard a contentious lawsuit, the Massachusetts gubernatorial candidates were essentially put on trial Wednesday as a debate moderator asked them a searing series of questions about alleged backroom dealings in the campaign," AP writes. "Republican Charles Baker, independent Timothy Cahill, Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick and Green-Rainbow Party candidate Jill Stein were called to account before 500 business and community leaders in the aftermath of a dizzying spate of developments recently that have overshadowed any focus on more pedestrian issues such as job growth and tax policy."

  • The midterms: Saving Harry Reid

    "Republican and Democratic officials say Democrats are planning to sink more than $2 million into television advertising to try to save Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid in Nevada while scaling back spending in Missouri as polls show their candidate trailing," the AP writes.

    Three Republican groups - American Crossroads, American Action Network and the Commission on Hope, Growth and Opportunity - are "launching a $50 million advertising blitz this week in a final push to help the GOP win a majority in the House, representing the biggest spending blitz ever by such groups in a congressional election campaign," the Wall Street Journal writes.

    More: "The coordinated effort, which the groups have dubbed the 'House surge strategy,' tops what the official Republican House election committee expects to spend on television ads for the entire contest. It is aimed at the few dozen competitive races where Democratic candidates have significantly more money in the bank than their Republican opponents, eating into one of the Democrats' last financial advantages."

    Now, that's SOME likely voter model: "Likely voters in battleground districts see extremists as having a more dominant influence over the Democratic Party than the GOP," The Hill writes. "This result comes from The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll, which found that 44 percent of likely voters say the Democratic Party is more dominated by its extreme elements; whereas 37 percent say it's the Republican Party that is more dominated by extremists."


    Here's The Hill's interactive map of its congressional district polls.

    "The DNC released a new television ad, 'Make History Again,' to coincide with Obama's simulcast town hall on MTV, CMT, and BET as part of the party's effort to drive young voter turnout on Nov. 2," The Hill reports. "The ad is the first to run on BET this election cycle, and is part of a $3 million push -- the most in the party's history -- in spending by the DNC to court black voters through traditionally African American media outlets."

    ALASKA: It's official. "Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) submitted paperwork Wednesday to make her write-in re-election campaign official, the Associated Press reported," Roll Call writes.

    CALIFORNIA: The AP writes, "The president of the National Organization for Women says California gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown should fire any campaign aide who uses the word 'whore,' as one of his aides did recently. NOW President Terry O'Neill also criticized Brown on Wednesday for saying during a debate that the private banter -- inadvertently captured on a telephone recorder -- is the kind of thing that typically happens in a campaign." Brown's campaign before the debate told First Read that it would not be conducting an investigation into who the staffer was, when asked directly if they would fire the individual. If this were a presidential campaign, the calls would have come faster to dismiss the staffer. http://bit.ly/cs9e7C and

    FLORIDA: Quinnipiac has Marco Rubio (R) up 44%-30% over Charlie Crist (I). Kendrick Meek (D) pulls just 22%.

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorsed Gov. Charlie Crist in his Senate bid yesterday. In a statement, Kennedy praised Crist's record on the environment, saying "Charlie Crist has been a champion for environmental protection, alternative energy, and green economy jobs. On the other hand, Tea Party darling Marco Rubio has assumed the radical role of climate change denier."

    GEORGIA: "Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop's once-safe hold on his southwest Georgia district has slipped away less than a month before Election Day, and the contest is now a statistical tie, according to a new survey from the campaign of state Rep. Mike Keown (R)," Roll Call writes. "Bishop led Keown 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent undecided. The 1-point difference was well within the survey's 4.9-point margin of error. Keown's poll, which was conducted by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies, was in the field Sept. 27 and 28 and surveyed 400 likely 2nd district voters. The new poll came four weeks after another POS survey showed Bishop ahead 50 percent to 44 percent."

    NEVADA: AP previews tonight's Reid-Angle debate: Early voting begins Saturday and Angle has said she would not debate after that because she wants an 'informed electorate.' With both candidates tied in the polls and only a handful of voters undecided, any hint of a gaffe or an unrestrained gesture during the hourlong debate could sway the race's outcome."

    The Boston Globe goes to Nevada to look at the Senate race.

    NEW YORK: "An upstate website is hitting Carl Paladino right in his self-proclaimed religious values - by dumping a new batch of sexually explicit emails he forwarded," the New York Daily News reports. "The emails, some dating back to 2008, were posted Wednesday on WNYMedia.net, which first revealed an earlier batch of smutty and racist missives. One of the new emails -- sent a year ago -- shows a young, pigtailed woman engaging in sexual acts. 'Awesome,' Paladino reportedly wrote."

    "Carl Paladino, a strong opponent of abortion, doesn't let his religious beliefs get in the way of making a quick profit," the New York Post reports. "The Buffalo bomb-thrower, who says his Catholic beliefs require him to oppose abortion -- including in cases of rape and incest -- is the landlord for a Planned Parenthood in Niagara Falls, The Post learned yesterday. The center provides services including the RU-486 pill, which Planned Parenthood calls 'medication abortion.'"

  • Poll: Reid leads Angle by 3

    A new poll could provide a little bit of good news for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, whose Tea-Party backed opponent, Sharron Angle, announced yesterday that she raised an astonishing $14 million in just three months.

    The survey from Suffolk University shows Reid with a 3-point lead over Angle – within the poll's margin of error but one of Reid's best performances in a nonpartisan poll since early last month.

    The poll showed 46 percent of likely Nevada voters supporting Reid, 43 supporting Angle, and 2 percent supporting Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian. Three percent of likely voters said "None of these candidates" when they were given the option to "lean" towards one of the contenders; when asked whom they supported without including the "lean" option, 13 percent said they would support none of them.

    It's not hard to see why Nevada voters might be dissatisfied with their major candidates. Fifty-two percent of respondents said they said they had an unfavorable opinion of Angle, and 54 percent said the same of Reid.

  • Ad Watch: Whitman's Chinese-American outreach

    From NBC's Ali Weinberg and Alison Bruno
    Meg Whitman
    releases an ad in Mandarin and Cantonese… Alexi Giannoulias utilizes footage from "Meet the Press"… And Carl Paladino has "A Plan"… In AL-2, Bobby Bright tells voters he's not a liberal… Jim Marshall's ad in GA-8, like that of Bill Owens' in NY-23, plays up his conservative voting record.

    CA GOV, Whitman "My Community" (translated from Mandarin and Cantonese)

    10/12

    ANNCR: Meg Whitman understands our community. She knows entrepreneurship, high-tech jobs and education are the keys to our future. She was a success at eBay, taking it from 30 people to 15,000. She can help California too. She'll get our economy moving with less taxes and red tape on small business. Control wasteful spending. Cut regulation. And invest in schools. More money in the classroom, help for higher education. Meg Whitman. The change we need to get California going again.

    IL SEN, Giannoulias "Whopper"
    10/12

    GIANNOULIAS: I'm Alexi Giannoulias, and I approve this message. NBC'S GREGORY: But the question, Mr. Giannoulias, should tax cuts be paid for? GIANNOULIAS: And this is why this race is so important. This is a fundamental public policy difference between myself and Congressman Kirk. He says he's a fiscal hawk. Look, the congressman has told some real whoppers during this campaign, but that may be the biggest one of all. He voted for every single one of the Bush budgets, which doubled our national debt. He voted to increase his own pay six times. He voted for the bridge to nowhere twice. He voted to raise the debt ceiling four times. The list goes on and on. So, Congressman, saying you're a fiscal hawk doesn't necessarily make it true, and your voting record proves that it's not true. The question is, for the Congressman, the $700 billion in tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, we don't have $700 billion. So my question to the congressman is, which country do you plan on borrowing $700 billion from? The Saudis? China? We can't afford it. And that's one of the problems, quite frankly, with Washington, D.C., this overborrowing, overspending.

    NY GOV, Paladino "I've Got A Plan"
    10/12

    PALADINO: Hi, I'm Carl Paladino. Unemployment is at record levels. The state budget is out of control. Taxes are driving good jobs and companies from our state. Albany insiders like Andrew Cuomo have failed us. Albany needs a major overhaul and I've got a plan to do it. I'll cut taxes by 10%, cut state spending by 20%, and stamp out corruption with new full disclosure laws for state legislators. We can get New York moving again and I'm not afraid to do it.

    AL-2, Bright, "Just Bobby"
    10/12

    BRIGHT: "I've heard my constituents and they don't want a liberal running the House, they want a conservative. I'm going to vote for the person who will allow me to best represent my constituents. I've already voted to repeal a portion of [the health care law], and anyone who tells you otherwise is just downright lying to you. I'm the most independent member of Congress and what I try to do is bring people together to make good things happen for our country. I'm Bobby Bright and I approve this message, and I sure hope you do too."

    GA-8, Marshall, "Long Way"
    10/13

    MARSHALL: "I'm Jim Marshall and I approve this message." ANNCR: "Georgia is a long way from San Francisco, and Jim Marshall is a long way from Nancy Pelosi. Jim Marshall doesn't support Nancy Pelosi, he voted the same as Republican leaders 65 percent of the time. Jim Marshall worked and voted against Nancy Pelosi's trillion-dollar health care bill because we can't afford it. And Jim Marshall is endorsed by the NRA, Right-to-Life, and the Chamber of Commerce. They wouldn't have anything to do with a Nancy Pelosi supporter."


    NY-23, Owens, "People Know"

    10/12

    OWENS: "I'm Bill Owens and I approve this message." ANNCR: "Wall Street people sure know how to lie with numbers. Bill Owens didn't vote with Nancy Pelosi 93 percent of the time. He voted with the Republican leader 63 percent of the time. And Bill Owens strengthened Medicare with better prescription drug coverage. Matt Doheny wants to replace Medicare with private bouchers and reduced benefits. He promoted it with his own money. And Matt Doheny said he wants to cut Social Security benefits too. Matt Doheny won't stand up for us."