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Cheers and Jeers: Wednesday

Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 05:52:55 AM PDT

From the GREAT STATE OF MAINE...

A Massey Business: A Play in Two Acts

Act I: September 28

[Ding Dong!]

[Mine manager, in bathrobe and shower cap, opens door]

Manager: Yes?
Inspector: Good mawnin'. Is this the Seng Creek coal mine owned by...[flips up papers on clipboard]...Massey Energy?
Manager: Um... May I ask who wants to know?
Inspector: I'm sorry. Where are my manners? Yes, I'm from the Federal Mine Safety and Health Administration. Here's my ID. I'm just here for a little surprise inspection, is all. Shouldn’t take more'n a few minutes.
Manager: Well, this is surely a surprise. Normally we're told in advance of your arrival.
Inspector: Well, I'm sure you have nothing to worry about, my good man, seeing as you've so steadfastly cleaned up your operations after all those accidents and explosions and deaths and whatnot. In fact, we were just sayin' this mornin' back at the office how wonderful it was to know that, of all the inspections we're doing this month, we could count on at least one mine operator---Massey Energy!---to pass with flying colors!
Manager: Um... Could you excuse me for just one moment?

[Manager, smiling, closes door.]
[Manager pulls out Blackberry and texts, furiously: CODE RED! CODE RED!]
[Manager opens door, still smiling.]

Manager: Well, you look like you've traveled a long way. Would you like some coffee? Tea? Pot roast? Game of chess?
Inspector: Thank you, thank you, but I think I just wanna do my little inspection and leave you to your mining.
Manager, under his breath: I think I want my mommy.

Act II: October 7

[The stage is bare except for a radio on a stool.]

Radio newscaster's voice: "A surprise inspection has turned up serious safety violations that could have caused an explosion at another Massey Energy Co. coal mine in West Virginia, the federal Mine Safety and Health Administration said Thursday.

Inspectors caught Massey illegally cutting too deeply into the coal seam at its Seng Creek Powellton Mine about 40 miles south of Charleston in Boone County, the agency said. A foreman also admitted skipping mandatory tests for explosive gases, and inspectors caught Massey cutting coal with ventilation curtains rolled up and left out of the way, MSHA said."

Mine manager, in bathrobe and shower cap, enters from stage right, holds up the loofah in his hand, and shakes it vigorously: Damn you, big government and your meddling ways! Daaaaamn Yooooooooou!!!

[Curtain!]

Please stay and meet the cast in the lobby! Cheers and Jeers starts in There's Moreville... [Swoosh!!] RIGHTNOW! [Gong!!]

Poll

Yesterday U.S. District Judge Virginia Phillips ordered the military to immediately stop enforcing the 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' policy because it's unconstitutional. Do you agree with the ruling?

84%16 votes
15%3 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes

| 19 votes | Vote | Results


Open Thread

Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 05:32:02 AM PDT

Jabber your jibber.

Abbreviated Pundit Round-up

Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 03:48:17 AM PDT

Wednesday opinion (and let's start with Chile):

NY Times:

The first eight of the 33 miners who had been trapped underground for two months ascended to the surface here early Wednesday morning, as a rescue operation that has inspired the nation and riveted the world moved into its final phase.  

Nate Silver:

Although we’ve been skeptical about the notion that the overall political environment has improved by any discernible margin for Democrats, there are some exceptions in gubernatorial elections around the country. In recent weeks, Democrats have moved into the lead in the gubernatorial race in California, while closing their deficits in other states where they once trailed badly. Likewise, while there were relatively few shifts in this week’s gubernatorial polls, the exceptions generally benefited Democrats.

Mark Blumenthal:

My sense is that some of the big differences we have seen this year -- both in comparing Gallup's results to other national polls and on some polls at the state level -- may be about the way the classic likely voter model behaves in a year in which Republicans are generally more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats. The demographic pattern of enthusiasm reinforces the demographics of those already likely to vote, making the impact of the likely voter model on the overall result that much bigger.

PPP via twitter:

Bottom line on NV- Reid is unpopular, Angle even more unpopular, will be decided by Dem turnout

Anne Applebaum:

At one level, the use of "elite" to describe the new meritocrats simply means that the word has lost its meaning. As Jacob Weisberg points out, when Sarah Palin, Christine O'Donnell or -- bizarrely -- Justice Thomas's wife  fling the word "elitist" at opponents, it often means nothing more than "a person whose politics I don't like" or even "a person who is snobby." But after listening to O'Donnell's latest campaign ads -- in which the Senate candidate declares proudly, "I didn't go to Yale . . . I am YOU" -- I think something deeper must be going on as well.

I suspect the "anti-elite-educationism" that Bell predicted is growing now not despite the rise of meritocracy but because of it. The old Establishment was resented, but only because its wealth and power were perceived as undeserved. Those outside could at least feel they were cleverer and savvier, and they could blame their failures on "the system." Nowadays, successful Americans, however ridiculously lucky they have been, often smugly see themselves as "deserving." Meanwhile, the less successful are more likely to feel it's their own fault -- or to feel that others feel it's their fault -- even if they have simply been unlucky.

Gallup:

Americans are essentially equally divided in their views of the role of the federal government, with one-third tilting toward a preference for a government that actively takes steps to improve the lives of its citizens, one-third preferring a limited government that performs mostly basic functions, and the remainder in the middle.

Clear as mud, eh? Just do what America wants. That is... what, exactly? No socialism  – and take your hands off of my medicare?

via Ezra, "Immigration, Offshoring and American Jobs," by Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, Giovanni Peri and Greg C. Wright:

We test the predictions of the model on data for 58 US manufacturing industries over the period 2000-2007 and find evidence in favor of a positive productivity effect such that immigration has a positive net effect on native employment while offshoring has no effect on it. We also find some evidence that offshoring has pushed natives toward more communication-intensive tasks while it has pushed immigrants away from them

Julian Zelizer:

Americans, he [Larry Bartels] shows, in all income brackets have enjoyed more economic success when Democrats inhabit the White House. Meanwhile, the economic policies of Republican presidents, such as regressive tax cuts, have disproportionately benefited the wealthy.

In another book, political scientists Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson have reached a similar conclusion. They have shown how the mobilization of business in Washington during the 1970s profoundly effected inequality.

Open thread for night owls: Anti-gay Claremont Institute

Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 09:03:29 PM PDT

At The Nation, Kathryn Joyce writes At Claremont Institute, Christine O'Donnell Was Taught ABCs of Homophobia:

In the past few weeks, Delaware [Senate] candidate Christine O'Donnell has come under ridicule for seeming embellishments to her résumé. A CV posted on the networking site LinkedIn transformed a 2001 summer seminar she attended in rented space at Oxford University into a term of study at the school, and represented a week-long fellowship at the right-wing think tank the Claremont Institute as graduate coursework at Claremont Graduate University. Although, at O'Donnell's request, the profile has since been taken down—her campaign claimed the enhanced resume was a fake posted to embarrass her (a charge LinkedIn expressly would not confirm, and other sources seem to refute), the real story is what O'Donnell actually did learn at the Claremont Institute, and how thoroughly the candidate absorbed its viciously antigay politics.

The Claremont Institute, which shares no official affiliation with the consortium of seven interconnected schools that make up Claremont Colleges but which lists a number of Claremont McKenna College faculty as fellows or scholars, works on a number of projects, including hawkish advocacy for ballistic missile defense programs. But its most feverish passion seems to be opposition to gay rights, evident in the Institute's advocacy against gay teachers or Boy Scout leaders and in support of "reparative" gay conversion therapy. The Institute, which publishes the right-wing Claremont Review of Books, was founded in 1979 by students of Harry Jaffa, a philosophy professor who studied under neocon patriarch Leo Strauss and the author of Barry Goldwater's famous call for "extremism in defense of liberty." The institute praises extremism in its own right, this year bestowing its Statesmanship Award on Dick Cheney. O'Donnell's fellow Tea Partier, Sharron Angle, claims that in 2004 she was awarded its Ronald Reagan Freedom Medallion.

But like many right-wing institutions investing in conservatism's future, the institute focuses on new faces in the movement, offering two fellowships for young conservative leaders, including the Lincoln Fellowship O'Donnell was awarded in 2002. Participant lists for the fellowship are a catalogue of Congressional staffers, state Republican party operatives and conservative pundits in the making, including Andrew Breitbart, who went on from his fellowship to accuse former USDA appointee Shirley Sherrod of racism against whites this summer, and National Review's Kathryn Jean Lopez. One past participant, Brian Lee, a former staffer for the staunchly anti-choice Congressman Jeff Fortenberry, called the institute a premier "training ground for a lifetime campaign in the trenches of political warfare." Another, 2009 fellow Jon Fleischman of FlashReport.com, compared the fellowship to "taking the ‘red pill' " of The Matrix. The Institute itself says it is targeting "rising stars of the conservative movement … to teach them how to be ‘able and orthodox teachers.'"

• • • • •

At Daily Kos on this date in 2005:

To those who have held out hope, it just ain't gonna happen.

Former Vice President Al Gore said Wednesday he had no intention of ever running for president again, but he said the United States would be "a different country" if he had won the 2000 election, launching into a scathing attack of the Bush administration.

"I have absolutely no plans and no expectations of ever being a candidate again," Gore told reporters after giving a speech at an economic forum in Sweden.

Poll

What is the situation in your state in the governor's race?

13%548 votes
7%297 votes
3%125 votes
0%22 votes
7%300 votes
8%329 votes
3%156 votes
26%1034 votes
13%531 votes
11%463 votes
0%34 votes
2%85 votes

| 3924 votes | Vote | Results

Open Thread and Diary Rescue

Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 08:16:05 PM PDT

Tonight's Rescue brought to you by HoosierDeb, ItsJessMe, YatPundit, claude, and pico.

Diary Rescue is all about promoting good writers, so remember to subscribe to diarists whose work you enjoy reading.

jotter has High Impact Diaries: October 11, 2010.

brillig has Top Comments - Golden Rule Edition.

Please suggest your own, and use as an open thread.

Polling and Political Wrap, 10/12/10

Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:46:05 PM PDT

Today marks one of the better polling days of recent vintage for the Democrats, cause perhaps for renewed optimism as the countdown now goes to T-Minus three weeks and counting until the 2010 midterms are visited upon us.

The House of Ras, for the second day in a row, has good numbers for Democrats that the Ras-sies work very, very hard to ignore. Meanwhile, Patty Murray and Virg Bernero enjoy their best polling in weeks, and we see an object lesson in when a challenger's internal poll actually is bad news for that challenger.

All that (and more!) as we peruse the 34 polls that made the cut in this, the Tuesday edition of the Wrap...

THE U.S. SENATE

THE ANALYSIS: This is a pretty big turnaround day for the Democrats, with leads in races where polling leads have been somewhat hard to come by lately. The Dems even produce a poll in Wisconsin showing Russ Feingold still drawing breath in that uphill battle. Joe Manchin and Harry Reid move back into a lead, and Patty Murray enjoys her biggest lead to date in the Elway Poll. The biggest downer here might be Arizona, where the Behavior Research Poll that showed the gubernatorial race tightening show no such positive movement in the Senate race. Which is good news for....oh, never mind.

THE U.S. HOUSE

THE ANALYSIS: Perhaps the most interesting poll of the bunch is SurveyUSA's latest poll from southern Virginia. They release two different models: one with Random Digit Dialing (RDD) and the other with what they have used this year (Registration Based Sampling--RBS). The RDD poll shows a race where the margin for Republican Rob Hurt is halved from previous SUSA polls. Perhaps a tacit admission that they, too, were concerned about having numbers in the 5th dramatically different from even GOP internal polls? Meanwhile, AZ-05 is looking more and more interesting, as even Republican pollsters concede that any lead enjoyed by Republican David Schweikert seems to have disappeared. Meanwhile, Dems in PA-13 smack down any notion that their race is close, while Dems in IL-11 are trying to reassure their voters that the race is still close. Finally, Delaware still is on track to be a Democratic pickup, according to a public poll from Monmouth.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

THE ANALYSIS: If the new poll out of Michigan is to be believed (the pollster, FWIW, is a new name to me), Virg Bernero might be in the midst of a bounceback. We also see some Democratic polling in Iowa that hints at a bit of a Chet Culver renaissance, as well. Tom Barrett's relative health in Wisconsin depends on who polls the race, as a Dem poll there has it pulling into a toss-up.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
A hilarious tweet from Nate over at 538 today noted that it was curious to see Rasmussen bury the lede by being surprisingly mute about the two biggest headlines in their polling the last two days. Both polls (coincidentally, I am sure) showed good news for Democrats.

Yesterday, it was John Kitzhaber in Oregon. Today, it's Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois.

Also, the Ras/Fox nexus throws new data on the pile. Even they can't show anything close to momentum for Christine O'Donnell. Wow...she must really be toast.

CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 47%, Tom Foley (R) 43%**
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 49%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%**
DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 54%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 38%**
IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 44%, Mark Kirk (R) 43%
NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) 49%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 47%**
NH-Gov: Gov. John Lynch (D) 53%, John Stephen (R) 43%
OH-Gov: John Kasich (R) 47%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 42%**
OH-Sen: Rob Portman (R) 52%, Lee Fisher (D) 35%**
OH-Sen: Rob Portman (R) 57%, Lee Fisher (D) 34%
OR-Sen: Sen. Ron Wyden (D) 52%, Jim Huffman (R) 36%
WA-Sen: Dino Rossi (R) 47%, Sen. Patty Murray (D) 46%**
WI-Sen: Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 45%

(**)--Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research polls

Election Diary Rescue 2010 (10/12 - Three Weeks 'til Election Day!)

Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:16:05 PM PDT

   This Rescue Diary covers the period from 6 PM, Monday, 10/11 to 6:00 PM EDT, Tuesday, 10/12

Today's Menu Includes :
55 Diaries Overall

- 12 On House races

- Covering 8 individual Districts in 6 states

- 18 On Senate races

- Representing 12 different states

- 12 On Various election races and ballot issues

- Encompassing Governor, Secretary of State, Local, and more

- 13 General election-related diaries

   

And be sure to follow the Election Diary Rescue on Twitter

(Tonight's compilation and more after the jump............)

Senate Snapshot, October 12th: Optimism!

Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:48:04 PM PDT

If you are like me, then you waver between optimism and pessimism about the 2010 elections on an almost daily basis. Today is one of those optimistic days.

Dems have gained a seat in the Senate Snapshot since Friday, to reach 51. This is due to across the board gains in Washington, Nevada, West Virginia, Illinois and Colorado. However, as I have said repeatedly, this is merely a Snapshot of where the campaign currently stands, and it not a prediction of future trends.

If I was forced to guess where the campaign ends up, I think Dems actually sweep Washington, Nevada, West Virginia, Illinois and Colorado. The early Dem turnout machine has proven its worth in recent years, and all five of those states have early, in-person voting. Also, as PPP notes, there are good reasons to expect the enthusiasm hap to close, even if only slightly, between now and Election Day. That should be enough to push any campaign within 3% into the Democratic column, as long as those states have early in-person voting.

Fifty-four seats should be enough to achieve meaningful rules reform in the Senate, so Democrats might even be able to govern for the next two years. So, today is one of the good days Right now, I think there is real hope, even if I may not feel that way in a day or two.

Senate Competitive Campaigns Chart


Senate Outcome Odds Chart

While the competitive Campaigns Chart only shows Democrats ahead in 50 seats, the most likely outcome is 51. This is due to the small GOP leads in Nevada, West Virginia, Illinois and Colorado.

Notes
--This is a snapshot, not a forecast. All of the odds presented here are based on if the election were held today. It is not a prediction of future trends.

--Only campaigns closer than 12.0% are listed. If a campaign isn't listed here, then it is not currently as close as any of the campaigns listed here.

--I am not projecting odds of victory in Alaska, due to the write-in campaign of Lisa Murkowski.

--With few exceptions, all polls used in the averages are taken from Pollster.com.

--A complete description of the methodology behind this snapshot, along with all the research and a FAQ, can be found here.

Open Thread

Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:24:01 PM PDT

Jabber your jibber.

Chamber lends a hand to corporatist Dems

Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:18:05 PM PDT

If you want a cheat sheet on the worst Democrats in the House, just look at who the US Chamber of Commerce is funding:

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which has been a powerful ally for Republican candidates in this year's midterm campaigns, quietly moved across the aisle this week and bought ads touting nearly a dozen Democratic House members.

The "voter education" spots are running on behalf of 10 members of the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Coalition, many of them in the South, including Georgia's Jim Marshall, Virginia's Glenn Nye, Maryland's Frank Kratovil, Mississippi's Travis W. Childers and Alabama's Bobby Bright.

The ads were spotted by political media trackers. A spokesman for the chamber would not confirm the buys, but filings with the Federal Election Commission show that the Chamber spent a total of $1,899,772 to run two separate ads for each candidate.

The Chamber desperately wants to fuel the narrative that the Democrats overreached the last two years, but that'll be a much harder sell if it's obstructionist corporatist Democrats getting the axe. So they spend without abandon against real Democrats, trying desperately to defeat them, while they dump $2 million intro shoring up their best corporatist friends on the Democratic side of the aisle.

It's not a bad strategy, particularly if they've concluded that the Democrats will hold the House.

CNN has learned that Tom Donohue, the powerful president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce who has vowed to spend more than $75 million on key House and Senate races, has privately told colleagues in recent weeks he believes Democrats will just barely hold on to the House majority.

Two sources familiar with the conversations said Donohue has privately said he's gone over every single key race in the House, and he believes Republicans will lose a few seats -- losses he believes they don't see coming -- because it is more of an anti-establishment election than an anti-Democratic election.

The Chamber has more money than god, and has likely polled every single competitive (or potentially competitive) district. If they were confident in a GOP takeover, they'd go all-out in order to pave the way for Speaker Boehner. Instead, they've decided to hedge their bets by currying favor with the Blue Dogs.

That this spending comes this late in the cycle suggests particular pessimism on Donohue's part. Why enrage Republicans by going to the aid of some of the GOP's biggest targets?

Because if he can't get Speaker Boehner, then the next best thing is a functional corporatist majority in the House, that can team up to make Pelosi's life hell, or even make mischief by electing -- with Republican support -- a Speaker Gene Taylor or Sanford Bishop.

WA-Sen: Washington-based Elway shows increasing lead for Murray

Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 05:46:05 PM PDT

The latest Elway poll of Washington's Senate race between Dem incumbent Patty Murray and real estate speculator Dino Rossi is out, and shows a comfortable lead for Murray, 51-38, which opens to 55-40 if leaning voters are factored in. Goldy evaluates:

That’s a far cry from the spate of surveys from national polling firms that have recently shown the lead bouncing back an forth, near or within the margin of error.

Elway of course is painfully aware that such a dramatic departure from the national narrative might “come as a surprise to many and as unbelievable to some,” so he goes on at some length explaining why these results should not be dismissed as an outlier. This survey only interviewed “likely voters,” defined as those who have voted in at least two of the past four elections, or who have registered since 2008. The demographic profile of this sample matches the samples all year, and the expected profile of likely voters....

But in the end, one of the big differences between Elway’s results and those of other pollsters comes down to “philosophy.”

One of the challenges of election polling is determining what to do with respondents who are undecided. The philosophy here has always been to let them be undecided. After all, it is still 3 weeks until election day and the purpose of a survey is to describe the campaign situation today—not to predict the outcome. As a consequence, The Elway Poll routinely indicates more “undecided” voters than other surveys—a position that fails to satisfy the partisans, often resulting in charges of incompetence and/or bias from partisans on the short end of data.

And not only doesn’t Elway push the undecideds, he also doesn’t statistically weight the data the way many national pollsters do, using some “secret sauce formula” to estimate how the undecideds will break based on party identification.

If Elway weighted the data by, for example, party ID, his results would have been 51-49, assuming that all of the remaining undecideds, mostly Republicans, would break for Rossi. In the straight polling, pushing leaners, they broke 2 to 1 for Murray.

Elway also points out the problem for Rossi that we have seen in numerous previous polls---there's just not room for him to improve. His high unfavorables and the relative few undecided voters in the state have given him a ceiling below 50 percent from the beginning, and since he's such a known quantity, he can't change that. As Elway says, "there are simply not enough undecided voters left."

One path for Rossi is to bring new voters into the electorate—people who were not in the “likely voter” sample. This is where Tea Party voters may help, assuming that there are a significant number who are not “likely voters.” Sufficient help from that quarter seems problematic for two reasons. First, it is not clear that Tea Partiers are disproportionally less likely voters. Second, Rossi has consciously not courted the Tea Party constituency.

This means Rossi must take votes away from Murray. He must convince enough Murray supporters to switch sides, which puts a premium on the two debates and on making an effective “closing argument” in the final three weeks of the campaign.

It would take a total meltdown on Murray's part in those debates for her to lose a sizable chunk of her 51 percent, an unlikely event. Again, back to Rossi's being a known quantity here--changing a Murray voter to a Rossi voter is a very tall order.

The poll has a MoE of +/-4.6% and the full memo is available here.

CO-Sen: Ken Buck's other prosecutor problem

Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 05:12:04 PM PDT

The DSCC has released this ad in the Colorado Senate race.

This story first broke in the primary, when Buck's opponent, Jane Norton, raised it. A decade ago, Buck was a federal prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney’s Office and left his job "after the U.S. attorney rebuked him for bad-mouthing a felony case to defense lawyers representing Aurora gun dealers." The details are somewhat damning.

Then-U.S. Attorney John Suthers called Buck's conversations with defense attorneys a "reckless disregard of your obligation to keep client information confidential," according to his letter of reprimand.

Buck, elected Weld County district attorney in 2004, says now that he doesn't think the conversations he had before the 2000 grand jury indictment are different from off-the-record chats prosecutors and defense attorneys have every day.

But others said those conversations very likely compromised the case. Only one of the three men initially indicted on felony charges was convicted, and that was for a misdemeanor.

He is now a Buck campaign contributor.

The case revolves around  Gregory and Leonid Golyansky, brothers who ran a gun store and pawnshop in Aurora in the 1990s and who were the target of an ATF investigaton, after "more than three dozen firearms sold at ABC Loan from 1995 through 1997 were impounded by Denver-area police agencies."

Agents first presented the investigation to the U.S. attorney's office in 1998, when Buck was chief of general crimes. At the time, Buck and a prosecutor below him declined to file charges because of weaknesses in the ATF probe, Buck said.

A new U.S. attorney took over in April 1999, right after the Columbine shootings, and decided to pursue the case. A mutual friend of Buck's and the brothers called Buck for a recommendation of defense attorney, and he recommended another social acquaintance. It's his conversation with that acquaintance, Stephen Peters, once he was the defendants' attorney that got him into trouble with his bosses, because Peters used information from that phone call--including the existence of a memo outlining some of the weaknesses in the case--in the defense of the Golyanskys.

So we come to a basic question about Ken Buck, reflected in this story and the rape case story that he refused to prosecute as Weld County prosecutor--did Ken Buck let his personal political connections and views interfere with his prosecutions? In this case, it's friendship with the Golyanskys (one of whom became a campaign donor to Buck) as well as his steadfast opposition to any kind of gun oversight by the feds. In the rape case, it's his making the case about abortion instead of about rape.

In both cases, it appears that Buck's fealty to the law--as a public servant where upholding the law was his sole professional obligation--came second to his personal beliefs. The rule of law has certainly proven to be a moving target for Republicans, so Buck is in good company there, but just because everyone does it doesn't make him qualified for the Senate.

AK-SEN: Alaska Dems--don't buy Murkowski's schtick

Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 04:30:04 PM PDT

Lisa Murkowski is doing her damnedest to kiss up to Alaska's Democrats. Here she is in yesterday's Chamber of Commerce debate, answering the question of which Senators she most admired.

Incumbent Lisa Murkowski, a lifelong registered Republican who is waging a write-in campaign after losing her party's nomination in August, named two Democrats.

"The (senators) that immediately come to mind are those that are on the other side of the aisle and I have a good working relationship with," Murkowski said. She named Sen. Tom Carper, D-Delaware, and Sen. Jeff Bingaman, the New Mexico Democrat with whom Murkowski serves on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

Don't buy it, Dems. She's still a Republican and is still going to vote for Mitch McConnell as caucus leader. The polling is abundantly clear: a Dem vote for Murkowski hurts the extremely viable Scott McAdams.

Take that 35 percent who think they're doing something useful propping up Murkowski (and Mitch McConnell, who she has promised to vote for), give those votes to McAdams, and he's suddenly at 39 percent, or in the lead. In other words, the Democrats can win this seat if they come home to their excellent candidate.

The challenge for McAdams is to convince Democrats that he is viable in a split race, encouraging those Democrats to come home. For Murkowski, the challenge is to keep those Democrats afraid of wasting their vote while picking up the tiny number of undecideds. And for Miller? He better hope none of the above happens, as his support appears to be maxed out.

Come home, Alaska Dems. You can beat Joe Miller outright with a Democrat.

And we non-Alaskans can help McAdams spread the word and convince all those Dems to come home. It's a cheap state for media, but a hard state to get around physically. McAdams needs all the help he can get.

Contribute to Scott McAdams
Scott McAdams for Senate

Live Obama webcast for OFA's "Commit to Vote House Parties"

Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 04:00:04 PM PDT

President Obama kicks off the final three weeks of the election campaign with a town hall for supporters at George Washington University broadcast by OFA live over the web:

The webcast is availably for anybody who wants to tune in, but is geared particularly towards attendees of OFA's "Commit to Vote House Parties" being held across the country. The goal of the house parties is to encourage GOTV efforts, particularly among Obama supporters who cast ballots for the first time in 2008.

Update 1: Jeremy Bird just started the event, introducing Tim Kaine who is speaking from a House party in New Hampshire before President Obama. You can also see a larger version of the broadcast here.

Update 2: Kaine is with Paul Hodes, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire. Kaine says he doesn't want to go backwards -- he wants "to have the President's back" in moving the country forward.

Update 3: Things are launching on time -- President Obama arrived at 4:05PM and is starting off with a short opening speech before taking questions (which will come by Skype among other routes).

Update 4: President Obama's opening remarks focus on the narrative of his first 21 months in office, contrasting the 9 straight months of private sector growth with the 750,000 jobs being lost per month when he took office, with the risk of a Great Depression on the imminent horizon. He says that while things are still difficult we avoided the Great Depression and are finally moving in the right direction. He also acknowledges that we haven't yet accomplished every item on his campaign agenda, but points to health care in particular as a key accomplishment, also touting reforms in education, including the student loan system and expanded investments in clean energy. "We're not where we need to be yet," he says, "and this election will help determine whether we can keep along the path" that will allow us to continue addressing the challenging America must confront.

Update 5: President Obama characterizes the GOP campaign as one based on fear and says that to win this election, hope will need to triumph over fear -- and for that to happen he'll need the help of the OFA volunteers who helped win the 2008 election. He says to OFA supporters: "It's up to you" whether we continue along the path of progress or we allow the other side to take us back.

Update 6: First question -- not surprisingly -- is about the impact of corporate money on elections, asking how its impact can be minimized. President Obama says that the biggest problem with money in politics is the flood of untraceable corporate money unleashed by the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision. "We don't know if they're being funded by foreign corporations because they're not disclosed," he says. When you see an ad for "Americans for Prosperity," he says, you should be able to know who is funding that ad and why they might be saying what they are saying. Allowing these sorts of ads to air without disclosure, Obama said, is "hijacking our democracy." The medium-term response is to pass something like the DISCLOSE Act, but as far as November is concerned, the only weapon Democrats have, he says, is to get out to vote, and to talk to their neighbors about getting out to vote.

Update 7: Second question comes from Skype and the question is: what's the best way to convince someone to vote? President Obama says the most important message to tell people is that this election represents a choice -- it's not a referendum on the economy. The GOP, he says, is adopting a "throw the bums out" message. Democrats need to argue that this election is a choice between a party pushing to move America forward and a party that wants to try the same exact policies that got us into this mess in the first place. Obama says that when people see that this is a choice, a "lightbulb goes off" and they remember that the GOP are the guys who got us into this spot in the first place. Democrats might only be halfway to the finish line, but at least they are running in the right direction.

Update 8: Question from Twitter expressing the hope that people would be more patient about the pace of change because it took eight years to create the problems we face. President Obama agrees with the premise of the question, but he also points to things like investments in new battery technology which he argues is creating the kinds of change we need. He says that people do need help now -- and he cites programs like loans and aid to teachers that are delivering that help -- but says the larger structural problems are going to take time, over several years, to solve and get the country back to where we want it to be.

Update 9: Question is about what has surprised Obama since taking office. First thing Pres. Obama mentions is the short attention span of the media that is focused on the latest developments instead of the long-term items on the agenda. He says it's a challenge to keep focused on long-term goals in that media environment. The second thing he mentions is that he's surprised at how courageous some members of Congress been. Even though Congress is unpopular, he says there are a lot of people who took tough votes that they knew would be bad politically -- health care, which he acknowledged is unpopular in some districts, or financial reform, which would bring a ton of money in attack ads. Specifically he calls out Tom Periello as a courageous congressman along with Betsy Markey and John Boccieri.

Update 10: Last question is about the economic future and prospects for jobs for young people just entering the workforce. One of the great strengths of America, Obama says, is our adaptability. This isn't the first time we faced challenges, and just as we've overcome past challenges -- many of which were more difficult than the ones we face today -- we can overcome them again this time. America is a country that adapts and changes and comes back stronger than ever. We have to "adjust to new realities" and "be honest about where we're falling short." Specifically we says we need to look at strengthening education, increasing exports, saving more, moving away from financial services, It won't be easy he says but if we stay focused on the long-term, we're going to get through this and solve our challenges. What makes President Obama confident about the future, he says, is having had the opportunity to meet the American people. He ends with another plea to vote on November 2, saying if Dems get out to vote, we'll do just fine on election day, and then goes into the crowd to shake hands.

Late afternoon/early evening open thread

Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 03:32:04 PM PDT

NV-Sen: Angle's evidence of Sharia Law overtaking America? A town that doesn't exist.

Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 02:56:03 PM PDT

Sharron Angle

You might be skeptical of the right-wing lunatics who claim Sharia Law is being imposed on cities throughout America, but Sharron Angle says she has all the evidence she needs to prove their fears are right. But her evidence falls just wee bit short.

First, Frankford, Texas, one of the two towns in which she claims has been overrun by Muslim invaders who have imposed Sharia Law, does not exist.

(CNN) - Nevada GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle told a crowd of Tea Party rally-goers last week that two cities — Dearborn, Michigan and Frankford, Texas — are under Sharia law, the sacred law of Islam.

“We're talking about a militant terrorist situation, which I believe isn't a widespread thing, but it is enough that we need to address, and we have been addressing it,” Angle said according to audio of the rally obtained by the Washington post. “My thoughts are these. First of all, Dearborn, Michigan, and Frankford, Texas, are on American soil, and under Constitutional law. Not Sharia law. And I don't know how that happened in the United States.”

The problem? Well, Frankford, Texas doesn’t really exist.

The other problem with Angle's evidence: Dearborn, the second city cited by Angle, is not under Sharia Law. In fact, Angle's claim forced the mayor there to write her a letter explaining that her allegation was utter nonsense.

In a letter sent to Angle Monday, Dearborn Mayor John O’Reilly, Jr. fired back at the Nevada Republican.

“I am deeply distressed that you have been misled about our community and the way that we conduct our affairs,” O’Reilly writes.

After explaining that the Detroit metro area, which includes Dearborn, has one of the country’s highest concentrations of Arab-Americans in the country, O’Reilly also informs Angle that “Arab-Americans practice religions other than Islam and the Chaldean and Lebanese cultures in our area represent a substantial number of Christians.”

“I am afraid that many share the perception that Muslims have only recently immigrated to this area and are imposing their culture on our region,” O’Reilly also writes, directly addressing Angle’s claims about the role of Muslims in his community.

The Michigan mayor adds, “Muslims have been practicing their faith in our community for almost 90 years without incident or conflict. To suggest that they have taken over ignores the fact that Dearborn hosts 7 mosques and 60 Christian churches.”

Clearly, Mayor O'Reilly must be in on the Sharia Law conspiracy. Why else would he have denied it?

AZ-Gov: Are Latinos making this a real race?

Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 02:16:03 PM PDT

Rock Mountain Poll (PDF). 10/1-10. Registered voters. MoE 4.2% (July results)

Jan Brewer (R) 38 (45)
Terry Goddard (D) 35 (25)
Other 6 (8)
Undecided 21 (22)

Most likely voters

Jan Brewer (R) 46
Terry Goddard (D) 35

Two caveats off-the-bat -- the 10-day polling period is weird polling methodology, and the "most likely voters" sample size is undefined, but given it's a sub-sample of the overall n=555 sample, the margin of error must be astronomical.

Then again, Nate Silver rated these guys as the fifth best pollster in his rankings, which is why I'm taking this poll seriously.

Democratic candidate Terry Goddard is benefitting from a huge vote from the Latino community, 60 percent of whom say they will vote for him and only 13 percent say they favor Brewer. Goddard also out-polls Jan Brewer among other minority voters, who in Arizona are mostly Native American or Asian. These advantages are off-set by Jan Brewer’s anchor of voter strength among those who classify themselves as “Very conservative.” Of these voters, 63 percent of people favor Brewer and among voters who consider themselves “conservative” but not extremely so, the Brewer vote is still impressive at 57 percent. Goddard attracts a fifth of conservatives. Brewer also rolls up an impressive 65 percent of the GOP vote and out distances Goddard by only 33 to 26 percent among Independents.

The Latino vote is critical to future Democratic chances in Arizona. As I wrote in the Spring:

[W]hile conservatives might pat themselves on the back for passage of [SB 1070], the long-term effects shouldn’t be so comforting. Latinos make up 29 percent of Arizona’s population. If current population trends continue, Arizona will become a majority-minority state by 2015. In 2003, more Latino babies were born than non-Hispanic white babies. And by 2007, Latino babies were 45 percent of the total, compared to 41 percent for non-Hispanic whites, and 14 percent for non-Hispanic Asians, Native Americans and African-Americans.

In 2008, Arizona Latinos opted for Obama 56-41, which seems lopsided, but nationally, the number was 67-31 for Obama. Sen. Jon Kyl also got that respectable 41 percent in his 2006 reelection battle. In 2004, John McCain won 74 percent of the Latino vote.

While Arizona Latinos aren’t a solid Democratic voting bloc, this law may very well change that. The Proposition 187 analogy is instructive — the GOP engages in heavy-handed, hateful, discriminatory and partisan demonizing of immigrants at its own electoral peril.

Remember, Latinos were a 60-40 Democratic constituency in Arizona. Freakin Kyl got 40 percent of the vote. He never will again. If the poll is accurate with its 60-13 Democratic split for Brewer, the election-night split will be 75-25 or even better.

Now, that might not be enough to overcome the conservative vote in this teabagger-fueled election year (that intensity gap is a killer), but it's definitely a disastrous sign for the GOP's long-term prospects in that fast-growing state.

WV-Sen: PPP poll has Manchin back in the lead

Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 01:40:04 PM PDT

PPP polled West Virginia 10/9-10/10th and found Manchin retaking the lead 48-45, just inside the MoE of +/-2.8%.

He trailed by 3 points in a PPP poll three weeks ago and his improved standing is a clear example of the biggest potential game changer nationwide for this year's election in the final three weeks- if Democratic voters wake up some of their candidates' fates could shift quite a bit.

In 2008 56& of the voters who came out for President in West Virginia were registered Democrats while 29% were registered Republicans. The poll we did in mid-September found that the folks planning to vote in this year's election were considerably more GOP leaning- only 51% Democrats and 37% Republicans. But Democratic interest has perked up quite a bit over the ensuing three weeks and the likely electorate is now composed of 55% Democrats and 33% Republicans, still slightly more GOP friendly than in 2008 but enough to put Manchin back into the lead....

Manchin's 68% approval rating on this poll is the highest PPP has measured for any politician in the country in 2010. Majorities of Democrats (80%), independents (60%), and Republicans (50%) alike are happy with the job he's doing. John Raese on the other hand has seen his favorability numbers slide over the last three weeks to the point where now just 39% of voters see him favorably and 46% have an unfavorable opinion.

Manchin's net approval is 53 points better than Raese's net favorability yet this is still only a 3 point race because the political climate remains toxic for Democrats in the state. Barack Obama's approval rating in the state is only 33%. Out of 32 states PPP has polled in this year that is Obama's worst approval anywhere.

Manchin needs to keep hammering Raese. His favorables are high enough that he needn't worry about going heavily on offense and focusing on the carpestbagging issue, which has been made much more salient with the "hicky" story. The PPP polling memo addresses that.

While Manchin has become more popular, the ad scandal may have hurt Raese already, because he has turned a 41-35 favorability rating into a 39-46 one, a negative swing of 13 points overall—22 points and 24 points with Democrats and independents, respectively.

West Virginia firefighters jump into it with this, spending "$32,000 airing this ad on cable around the state through Sunday, enough to get it pretty widely seen in West Virginia."

It's an effective ad, with real West Virginians--firefighters, no less--contrasting themselves with "Philadelphia actors" and Raese's "tax break on his Florida mansion." Expect Manchin to keep hitting those themes for the rest of the race.


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