Egypt: The NDP Nomination Process
November 3rd, 2010 by Jason
Michele Dunne and Amr Hamzawy have a new article describing the sometimes contentious nomination process for National Democratic Party (NDP) candidates. Gamal Mubarak and Organizational Affairs Secretary Ahmad Ezz have been working to make the NDP “look and function more like a political party and less like a patronage distribution network,” which has “complicated the selection of parliamentary candidates.” Dunne and Hamzawy describe the selection process as “a rather impenetrable three-tier process,” with a round of primary elections, a second round where the results of the primary are taken into consideration along with polling data, and then a third round where candidates are “submitted to the party leadership for the final—and probably the only meaningful—decision.” Independent candidates, often those that fail to make it through the “three-tier process,” seem to be free to “quit, run against the NDP, and rejoin the party later.” This has caused a variety of problems for the NDP, and the authors believe that the upcoming elections provide an opportunity to observe how the NDP handles the independents and their own party members.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Political Parties | Comment »
Iran: Controls on Education Tighten
November 3rd, 2010 by Jason
Following a decision to stop teaching certain social sciences deemed too “Western,” the Iranian government has now closed the Iran University for Medical Sciences in Tehran. Ali Chenar writes at Tehran Bureau that the recent moves reveal the governments strategy to “[revive] a strict centralism in the field of higher education, focused on conservative ideological values.” Control over the education sector had loosened during the presidency of Mohammad Khatami, but since Ahmadinejad’s election in 2005 things have changed. “‘From day one, Ahmadinejad sought to control the universities. He appointed his close allies to run the nation’s prestigious schools, ignoring the faculty’s views or objections,’” says a lecturer at the University of Tehran. According to another professor, “‘All of this is happening at a crucial time. In the past two decades, Iranian universities and colleges have been building up their academic strength. There is a huge demand for their expansion into graduate studies […] We need stability and peace to carry on teaching and research.’”
Posted in Freedom, Iran | Comment »
Iraq: Parliament to Convene Next Week
November 3rd, 2010 by Anna
Iraq’s acting speaker of parliament Fuad Massum announced today that the body will convene on Monday, November 8th after an eight-month lapse. Representatives will need to choose a speaker and two deputies, as well as a president. Iraqiya lawmaker Ahmed al-Ureibi said that as many as 30 Iraqiya members plan to support a Maliki-led government. Jalal al-Din al-Sagheer, a senior member of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, is pessimistic: “We need more than a miracle to say that by next Monday a real solution will be achieved.” Meanwhile, Iraqiya leader Iyad Allawi said in an interview with The Guardian yesterday that his bloc is considering walking away from the process, adding: “I have come to accept that opposition is a real option for us.” He expressed that the bloc does not want to be “false witness to history by signing up to something that we don’t believe can work.”
Posted in Iraq, Political Parties | Comment »
Republican Gains Will Likely Mean Cuts in Foreign Aid
November 3rd, 2010 by Anna
At Foreign Policy, Marc Lynch asserts that “there are real reasons to worry about the effects of a GOP-controlled Congress for Middle East policy.” He expresses concern that a Republican Congress might mean more hawkish policy on Iran, deference to Israeli settlement policies, and cuts in funding for the U.S. civilian mission in Iraq, “forcing the administration to scramble to deliver on its promise of a long-term civilian and political commitment.” At the Council on Foreign Relations, Senior Vice President James Lindsay similarly predicts that foreign aid will suffer under a Republican Congress, and at the Huffington Post, Marc Ginsberg writes: “the Obama Administration’s foreign aid program faces a very bleak future.” In Foreign Policy’s The Cable, Josh Rogin writes that the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will be more conservative following Wisconsin Democrat Russ Feingold’s loss. In another piece, Rogin adds that the next head of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen from Florida, “is likely to seek cuts in the foreign-aid budget in her authorization bill.”
Posted in Elections, Foreign Aid, US foreign policy, US politics | Comment »
Egypt: New Election Website, IRI Delegation to Egypt
November 3rd, 2010 by Jason
Al Masry Al Youm has set up an English language website focusing on the upcoming elections. The website includes sections for photos, video, and media monitoring. Al Masry Al Youm also has a report on the arrival of an International Republican Institute (IRI) delegation in Cairo. The delegation met with members of the National Council of Human Rights (NCHR) including the head of the parliamentary elections unit, Makram Mohamed Ahmed, and Mahmoud Karem, NCHR secretary-general. According to the report, the delegation from IRI asked why NCHR had denied international election monitors access to the country. “‘It’s a popular decision coming from people, not the state,’” said Ahmed. Ahmed’s statement seems belied by polling data showing that the Egyptian people due, in fact, support international election monitors.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Middle Eastern Media, Public Opinion, Technology | Comment »
Yemen: Central Problems are Ineffective Government, Mismanaged Economy
November 3rd, 2010 by Anna
Oliver Holmes writes at Al Jazeera that counterterrorism dollars for Yemen are missing “the crux of the problem – Yemen’s struggling economy.” By focusing their efforts on terrorism, rather than development, leaders in Washington risk ignoring the country’s worsening economic situation. The troubled economy arguably poses a bigger threat and risks “drawing [Yemenis] towards radicalization and militancy,” according to a recent Chatham House report. As Christopher Boucek of the Carnegie Middle East Program points out, “unemployment, subsidies, the failure to plan for a post-oil economy and corruption…are the biggest challenges.” As such, interventions to improve security must be balanced with efforts to improve Yemen’s political and economic development. According to one official: “The economy is highly mismanaged due to the ineffectiveness of the government,” which exacerbates frustration among the population and worsens security problems. U.S. air strikes “won’t solve anything,” notes Princeton University Yemen expert Gregory Johnsen – rather, firm commitments in development aid are needed.
Posted in Foreign Aid, Military, Terrorism, US foreign policy, Yemen | Comment »
Clientelism in Middle Eastern Politics
November 3rd, 2010 by Anna
James Liddell of the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE) argues at CIPE’s Development Blog that “we shouldn’t ignore what happens in the lead up to the elections [in the Middle East] – how candidates reach out to citizens and how citizens in turn react, or fail to act, at the ballot box.” Drawing on a recent article he wrote for the Journal of North African Studies, Liddell contends that undemocratic states’ relationship with their electorates are often characterized by patron-client relations. He calls for “a greater focus on the relationship between citizen and representative, which is often mediated by complex networks of dependency, gift exchange, reciprocity and patronage.” When interacting with a less educated electorate, political candidates and parties rely more on their personal contact with voters than on substantive platforms. Candidates “offer or withhold favors based on the delivery of votes,” which calls into question whether voting is really an expression of popular will. Acknowledging that democracy is about more than elections, Liddell nevertheless argues that “electoral dynamics are an important barometer for overall democratic governance.” Although some elections may appear free and fair on voting day, they often take place in a broader context of voter manipulation.
Posted in Elections, Political Parties | Comment »
Egypt: NSC Meets to Discuss Support for Democracy
November 3rd, 2010 by Jason
Laura Rozen reports at Politico that members of the National Security Council, including Dennis Ross, Dan Shapiro, and Samantha Power, met with a bi-partisan group of democracy advocates on Tuesday. The group included POMED’s Executive Director Andrew Albertson, Carnegie Endowment’s Michele Dunne, and Brian Katulis from Center for American Progress. “[The participants] suggested the meeting comes in the midst of the Obama administration conducting a review of its policy on democracy in the Middle East, and a significantly stepped-up focus by senior Obama administration officials on the Egyptian democracy issue in particular.” Other topics discussed included the issue of international monitors and the likelihood of the Muslim Brotherhood winning a majority of seats in the upcoming parliamentary elections. This was the first such meeting on Egyptian democracy issues to include Ross and Shapiro, the senior officials for Middle East policy at the NSC. “Tuesday’s meeting was interpreted by the outside foreign policy experts as a significant indicator that the Obama administration is giving more serious and high-level policy attention to the issue.”
The meeting has also garnered press attention in Egypt, including articles in Al-Dostor (Arabic) and Al-Masry Al-Youm (Arabic) .
Update: The Al-Masry Al-Youm article in now available in English.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, US foreign policy | Comment »
Egypt: “Political System” Explains Violence on Egyptian Campuses
November 3rd, 2010 by Anna
In World Affairs, Alaa Al Aswany juxtaposes his own positive experiences in the American university system with an incident in which a female student at a branch of al-Azhar University in Egypt, upon refusing to allow a security officer to search her bag, was brutally beaten on campus. He contends that the reason, at least in part, that students in Egypt can be abused is the political system. Although the president of a university in the U.S. is chosen “through a rigorous selection process” by multiple committees, monitored throughout his term, and free of government influence, the rector of al-Azhar “is appointed only after the security agencies have approved of him — and a single security report can lead to his dismissal.” Ultimately, the Egyptian security officer that beat a student, Aswany writes, “knows that he is much more powerful than the rector of the university.” Aswany contends that Egyptian university leaders are more interested in demonstrating loyalty to the regime than in education, and concludes: “The difference between what happens at the University of Illinois and al-Azhar University is the difference between a country where the people have authority and the law is sovereign, and a country where only the ruler has authority and is sovereign — while the people have no dignity and no rights.”
Posted in Egypt, Human Rights | Comment »
Jordan: IRI Publishes Election Guide, Announces Monitoring Delegation
November 2nd, 2010 by Evan
The International Republican Institute recently
published a guide to the November 9 Jordanian parliamentary election. According to the author, “The November 9 elections represent an opportunity to show Jordan is committed to administering open and transparent elections. If this is the case, the new parliament will begin its work with a stronger mandate and the potential to further democratic reforms.” IRI also recently
announced the members of its election monitoring delegation, which will be the first international group ever to monitor a Jordanian election.
Lorne Craner, President of IRI, will lead a team of international experts including
Michele Dunne from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
Dr. Wajeeha Sadiq Al Baharna, President of the Bahrain Women’s Society, and
Hassan Habib Mohamed El Shamy Deputy Director of the Parliamentary Election Monitoring Project at the Ibn Khaldun Center in Egypt, among others.
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Elections, Jordan | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Iraq’s Development Challenges”
November 2nd, 2010 by Jason
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) held a roundtable discussion Tuesday titled “Iraq’s Development Challenges.” The discussants were Christine McNab, Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General & UN Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator for Iraq, John Desrocher, Director, Office of Iraq Affairs, US Department of State, and Leslie Campbell, Regional Director for the Middle East & North Africa, National Democratic Institute (NDI). The discussion was moderated by Frederick Tipson, Director of UNDP/Washington.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or click here for pdf.) Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in Civil Society, Elections, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Iraq, Political Parties, Public Opinion, Reform, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iraq: Government Formation Moving Forward?
November 2nd, 2010 by Jason
The Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila) has announced its support for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s bid to retain the premiership in Iraq. The party initially refused to back Maliki, instead entering negotiations with Iraqiyya. Juan Cole writes that the addition of Fadhila to Maliki’s coalition means that the State of Law coalition now comes to “at least 142 by my count, more if some Shiite independents within the Shiite fundamentalist National Iraqi Alliance swing around to him.” Cole adds that Ammar al-Hakim’s Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and Kurdish political parties are key to the formation of a government.
Reidar Visser, however, calls the formation of an Iraqi government before 2011 “not realistic.” The Kurdish demand for a strengthened presidency is “constitutionally impossible” without a referendum, which would be contentious and “time consuming,” according to Visser. He also says that the religious calender is going to have a deleterious effect on the government formation process. “First there is Eid al-Adha in mid-November. Then, towards the end of November, the Shiite holy month of Muharram commences; it culminates with Ashura in the first half of December but the celebrations will keep going well into January 2011 with Arbain marking the 40-day mourning period for the death of Imam Hussein. As a consequence, politics in Iraq will inevitably move more slowly again.”
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Political Parties | Comment »
Is America Responsible for Meaningless Elections?
November 2nd, 2010 by Evan
Writing in the Asia Times,
Ramzy Baroud argues that while democratic rhetoric has spread quickly across the region, little genuine reform has occurred. Baroud blames American policy for this reality. In recent years, Arab governments have learned two lesson: First, the U.S. is not interested in the development of genuine democracy across the region; the Muslim Brotherhood’s success in the 2005 Egyptian parliamentary election and Hamas’ victory in 2006 scared policymakers, Baroud writes. Second, countries will be judged not by the validity of their democracy, but by how well their political systems serve U.S. interests. According to Baroud, these two realizations have perpetuated a system of meaningless elections and engineered democracies.
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Foreign Aid | Comment »
Jordan: MCC Funds New Water Program
November 1st, 2010 by Evan
Last week, the U.S. awarded Jordan a $275 million grant to improve water access in the northeastern region of Zarqa through the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). During the signing ceremony in Washington, D.C. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said: “Americans understand that a strong and prosperous Jordan is good for the region and good for the world. We want to work with you to realize our shared aspirations and shape the future together.” Originally created in 2004, the MCC funds development projects in countries that meet rule of law and democracy performance criteria. Jordan’s participation in the MCC program remains controversial. The country has failed to meet the political rights and civil liberties criteria in recent years.
Posted in Diplomacy, Foreign Aid, Jordan | Comment »
Yemen: Governance Improvement Projects are Key to Security
November 1st, 2010 by Anna
The Carnegie Endowment’s Christopher Boucek writes in the Financial Times that the recent discovery of a bomb plot originating in Yemen has generated considerable debate over how the U.S. and others should respond. While many have called for increased counterterrorism and military efforts in the country, Boucek argues that “a new, expensive and singular focus on hard security will make matters worse.” Since Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and other terrorist groups “thrive…on Yemen’s internal disarray,” he suggests that it would be more productive to focus attention on its economic situation, governance problems, and resource (mainly water) scarcities. Rather than military assistance, Boucek calls for additional humanitarian aid and capacity building projects to improve Yemen’s legal infrastructure, police forces, land reform, and education, as well as to fight corruption.
Posted in Foreign Aid, US foreign policy, Yemen, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Egypt: “Crisis of Governance” Over Parliamentary, Presidential Elections
November 1st, 2010 by Anna
In an opinion piece for Al Masry Al Youm, Director of Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies Bahey Eldin Hassan examines “the current crisis of governance in Egypt.” Unlike in previous years, some in the ruling elite believe that President Mubarak’s “continued grip on power is no longer in their interest or the regime’s interest.” Problematically, however, the regime has no alternate candidate that would garner the support of the entire elite. Furthermore, there are concerns among regime elites about how to ensure the political legitimacy of the next president, given the “unprecedented expansion of economic and social protests over the last two years.”
The current election environment is also shaped by the fact that political reform in the Middle East is not central on international agendas. Consequently, “the regime knows very well that even if the upcoming parliamentary elections are the worst in 58 years, it will incur no more than a harsh word or two.” The actual composition of the new parliament, meanwhile, has effectively “already been announced,” according to Hassan. Moving forward, he adds, one factor that will affect the political environment is the extent to which unofficial opposition groups can “project a coherent, influential message to the mass of regular Egyptians.”
For more information on this and other news on Egypt, sign up for POMED’s Egypt Daily Update.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Political Parties, Protests, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iraq: Mixed Reactions to Saudi Offer for Talks
November 1st, 2010 by Anna
On Saturday, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah offered to host talks in Riyadh between the leaders of Iraq’s main political factions. The talks, which would be under the Arab League’s auspices, would take place at the end of this month. The reactions to the offer were mixed. The Iraqiya party welcomed the initiative and called on other political blocs to take part. The National Alliance turned down the offer, expressing confidence that the political stalemate could be resolved in Baghdad without outside “interference.” The Kurdish bloc also reportedly rejected the offer, contending that King Abdullah’s involvement would only complicate the problem. Outside Iraq, the Arab League’s Secretary General Amr Moussa seemed to welcome the idea, and Egypt likewise expressed support for the initiative and urged Iraqi politicians to make the necessary compromises in order to end the political impasse.
Posted in Arab League, Iraq, Political Parties, Saudi Arabia | Comment »
Iran: Khamenei Courts the Clerical Establishment
November 1st, 2010 by Jason
In a new, detailed piece at Tehran Bureau, Muhammad Sahimi explains the history of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s troubles with the clerical establishment, and what, if anything, his recent trip to the holy city of Qom accomplished. “Unlike his predecessor as Supreme Leader — Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini — Khamenei has never had his own independent base of popular support.” The process through which Khamenei rose to the position of Supreme Leader was heavily influenced by Hashemi Rafsanjani, who thought Khamenei was “weak in religious credentials and therefore pliable.” The recent trip to Qom was an effort to “have the most senior grand ayatollahs and ayatollahs greet him as he entered the holy city, where about 30 Marjas taghlid currently reside. It became quickly clear, however, that aside from Khamenei’s reactionary supporters…no credible cleric would agree to that.”
Sahimi calls into question reports that Khamenei was able to achieve the main goals of the trip: to officially become a Marja taghlid, or figure of emulation, and to be named the Marja-e omoom, the foremost of the Marja. He said that it does not matter how various “daily hardline mouthpieces” and “other reactionary websites” refer to Khamenei. “The great aspect of Shiism is that it is the people who decide whom they want to follow, whom they want to emulate, whom they consider a true and pious Marja,” he says.
Posted in Iran, Islam and Democracy, Political Islam | Comment »
Turkey: YouTube Ban Lifted, Controversial Internet Law Still in Place
November 1st, 2010 by Evan
After two and a half years, Turkish officials
lifted the nationwide ban on YouTube over the weekend. A Turkish court suspended the popular video sharing site in May 2008 because of offensive videos about the founder of the Turkish Republic,
Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. According to Turkish Transport Minister
Binali Yildirim, whose office is responsible for Internet regulation, the offending videos were removed last week, clearing the way for YouTube to once again operate in Turkey. In a statement, YouTube
said that it had not removed the videos and the Turkish press
reported that a Turkish businessman living in Germany bought the rights to the videos and subsequently took them down. Despite the end of the YouTube ban, Turkey’s controversial Internet crimes law remains in place and according to observers over 6,000 websites are still censored by Turkish officials.
Posted in Journalism, Judiciary, Technology, Turkey | Comment »
Egypt: Wafd Will Run Despite Boycott Threats
November 1st, 2010 by Anna
After making threats to boycott the upcoming parliamentary elections in Egypt, the Wafd Party announced yesterday that it will participate. Last week, the government refused to air Wafd’s television ads, prompting threats of an election boycott by the group. The party’s leader Sayyed al-Badawi said yesterday that the Information Ministry has agreed to permit advertisements for the party to air on state television, but warned that the upcoming elections are the regime’s “last chance” to demonstrate its commitment to free and fair elections. Al Masry Al Youm writes that “[d]espite the threats, it seems doubtful the Wafd ever truly considered boycotting the upcoming vote.” Meanwhile, the High Elections Commission has begun licensing Egyptian civil society organizations as monitors for the election. The commission says that monitor groups must be impartial and will be allowed to report violations if substantiated with evidence.
For more information on this and other news on Egypt, sign up for POMED’s Egypt Daily Update.
Posted in Civil Society, Egypt, Elections, Political Parties | Comment »
