from LobeLog: News and Views Relevant to U.S.-Iran relations for October 6th, 2010:

Wall Street Journal: John Hopkins professor Fouad Ajami defends the whole of the Iraq War and addresses concerns that the country is subject to undue Iranian influence. He acknowledges that many commentators see evidence of Iran’s influence in the election last March — and the ongoing jockeying for power — in the role of anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and his exile in Iran. Ajami, who holds positions at the neocon Middle East Quarterly journal and the hawkish United Against a Nuclear Iran, credits Iraqis, especially Shiites, with a “healthy fear of Iran and a desire to keep the Persian power at bay.” He thinks al-Sadr’s defection to PM Muri al-Maliki’s re-election camp is because of the cleric’s desire for “access to state treasure and resources” and that Iraq needs “Pax Americana” to “craft a workable order in the Persian Gulf” in order to flourish.

Commentary: J.E. Dyer, in the Contentions blog, claims to have found evidence that Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wants to lead an invasion of Israel. Or, as Dyer phrased it, “plant the Revolutionary Iranian flag in Jerusalem.” On Ahmadinejad’s visit to Southern Lebanon next week, Ahmadinejad is scheduled to appear before a model of the holy city’s al-Aqsa mosque flying an Iranian flag. Dyer views the move as “a symbolic announcement that the ‘race to Jerusalem’ is on.” Insisting “[t]his is not meaningless symbolism,” he says the “blatant signal is something Ahmadinejad should be prevented from sending,” and wants the United States to pressure Lebanon to do just that.

Foreign Policy: The American Enterprise Institute’s Roger Noriega claims his research reveals Venezuela has been pursuing a nuclear program for the past two years with Iranian assistance. Noriega says, “documents suggest that Venezuela is helping Iran obtain uranium and evade international sanctions, all steps that are apparent violations of the U.N. Security Council resolutions meant to forestall Iran’s illegal nuclear weapons program.” Even more conspiratorially, he adds that “other documents provided by sources within the Venezuelan government reveal a suspicious network of Iranian-run facilities in that South American country that could contravene Security Council sanctions.” Noriega concludes that Venezuela’s nuclear program and participation in sanctions busting trade with Iran should lead the U.S. and the UN to “challenge Venezuela and Iran to come clean and, if necessary, take steps to hold both regimes accountable.”

Tablet Magazine: In looking at the relationship between Iran and Hezbollah, visiting Hudson Institute fellow Lee Smith backs up his belief that the formation of Hezbollah had nothing to do with Israel’s 18-year occupation of Southern Lebanon. For him,”Hezbollah is a projection of Iranian military power on the Eastern Mediterranean.” He adds, “There is nothing Lebanese about Hezbollah except the corporal host; its mind belongs to the Revolutionary Guard.” As proof, Smith points to captured Hezbollah documents show telltale signs of having been translated from Farsi into Arabic. This runs counter to other perspectives, including Ehud Barak’s understanding of Hezbollah: “It was our presence [in southern Lebanon] that created Hizbullah.” Smith’s account of history removes all Israeli responsibility for the growth of Hezbollah and shifts the focus to Iran – a variation on the “reverse linkage” argument.

You supply the pictures and I’ll supply the war
– William Randolph Hearst

The call to war with Iran is alive and well today, as hawkish self-styled media outlet Newsmax.com is pushing a story entitled “Iran Admits It Could Pull Nuke Trigger on US, Israel“. The article is festooned with scare quotes designed to prove that Iran’s Defense Ministry is “dropping the pretense that it is developing nuclear technology purely for peaceful purposes.”

And in the great history of Yellow Journalism the story appears to be virtually entirely invented out of whole cloth. The article quotes heavily from a fictional “strategic analysis” by an apparently fictional “top adviser to (Iran’s) Defense Minister.”

Yet there is no indication, beyond that article, that the so-called author of the analysis Alireza Sedidabadi even exists, and the “intelligence ministry website alef.ir,” from which Newsmax author Ken Timmerman claims to have obtained the shocking revelations, isn’t real either.

No kidding, visit alef.ir. Now ask yourself “how many Iranian government websites feature prominent pro-Green Movement articles and Samsung advertisements.” You could also go to the “links” section on the site and ask “how many Iranian government websites link to the Jerusalem Post” as a news source?

Indeed, the only Iranian quoted in the whole Newsmax article who seems to be real is self-described CIA spy Reza Khalili, who of course plays up the call to war that the piece so clearly is designed to be, even claiming Iran is “very close to being able to arm their ballistic missiles with nuclear war heads,” a claim so demonstrably absurd it seems incredible that it was even included.

Taking a page out of Hearst’s book, Newsmax is quite literally trying to “supply the war” here. Fortunately for us they don’t seem to be particularly good at it, and such nonsense will likely only “convince” the people who were sold on the idea of the war already.

from LobeLog: News and Views Relevant to U.S.-Iran relations for October 5th, 2010:

Bloomberg: Raj Rajendran reports that recent Japanese sanctions against Iran may reduce oil exports from Iran by 25-percent, a reduction of 500,000 barrels per day. The sanctions, which were announced on September 3, lead to the suspension of new oil and gas investments in Iran and froze the assets of 88 organizations and 24 individuals who do business with Iran. Projections estimate Iranian crude oil production will drop from the pre-sanctions target of 5.3 million barrels to 3.34 million by 2015.

The Weekly Standard Blog: While The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies’ Mark Dubowitz applauds the State Department’s announcement last week about sanctions enforcement, he calls attention to the “many European and Asian companies [that] continue to make deals with Iran,” including Chinese and Swiss companies. Last week FDD revealed the Swiss firm Cresesola TLS had sold Iran €1 billion of tunneling and heavy earth-moving equipment. Dubowitz, who calls for punitive measures against European, Chinese and Russian companies on a nearly weekly basis, warns that “If the Obama administration opts for only symbolic and selective measures, it could collapse our Iran policy, making it likely to require more drastic measures to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.”

Financial Times: Najmeh Bozorgmehr writes Iran has dropped the espionage charges against Hossein Rassam, an Iranian national employed as the chief political analyst at the British embassy in Tehran. Although cleared of those charges, Rassam was hit with a charge of “propaganda against the regime.” That carries a 12 month sentence that will be suspended for five years, meaning Rassam can’t have any contact with foreign embassies or political groups. Nonetheless, the reduction of the charge indicates the weakness of those conspiracy theories that the British were behind the unrest following Iran’s disputed June 2009 presidential election.

The Wall Street Journal: While some hawks have squaked about an unnatural and nefarious Iranian influence in Iraq, WSJ’s Sam Dagher reports from Baghdad that Iranian clout over the Shiite community is an “unexpected casualty” of the post-election wrangling. While the anti-occupation cleric Moqtada Al-Sadr, by lending his support, appears to have put Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki in a good position for a second term, Dagher notes that the Islamic Supreme Council of Iran (ISCI) is no longer backing Maliki. ISCI is the Shiite party considered closest to Iran. The report also notes that the key Kurdish player in coalition negoatiations is not Jalal Talabani, the current president with strong ties to Iran, but Masoud Barzani, who “has had a difficult relationship with Iran” and holds the most Kurdish seats.

On Wednesday, October 6, 2010 at 6 pm, a panel of speakers from a variety of political positions, all of whom oppose the war in Afghanistan, will meet at First Unitarian Universalist Church in San Francisco to discuss how to build a consensus to end the war in Afghanistan.

Panelists:
John Dennis, Republican Candidate, 8th Congressional District
Daniel Ellsberg, Author and Activist
Michael Eisenscher, US Labor Against the War Nat’l Coordinator
Karel, Green 960 AM Radio Talk Show Host
Angela Keaton, Antiwar.com Developmental Director
Moderator: Jeff Johnson, PeacePundit.com

Time and Place:
Wednesday, October 6, 2010, 6 pm
First Unitarian Universalist Society of San Francisco
1187 Franklin Street, at Geary Blvd
Admission: FREE

On October 7th 2001 US military aircraft began bombing Kabul. Nine years later, US military operations continue in Afghanistan with no end in sight. Within the next year, the US-led war on Afghanistan will exceed the length of the 1980s Soviet occupation of that unfortunate country.

The war has already claimed the lives of over 1100 American service men and women; while more than 7500 have been wounded. Much larger numbers of Afghan and Pakistani civilians have lost their lives due to US and NATO bombing, including by pilotless drones.

A recent opinion poll shows that 58% of Americans oppose the war in Afghanistan, yet both Democratic and Republican leaders still support it.

from LobeLog: News and Views Relevant to U.S.-Iran relations for October 4th, 2010:

New York Times: Though details are not available, William Yong writes that Iranian authorities have arrested an unspecified number of “nuclear spies” in connection with the Stuxnet virus infecting computers at Iran’s nuclear operations. In his announcement, Iranian intelligence minister Heydar Moslehi said: “The intelligence Ministry is aware of a range of activities being carried out against the Islamic Republic by enemy spy services.” Separately, the head of Iran’s state-run information technology company hopes to clear the virus out of Iranian systems in the next “one to two months.”

Washington Post: Former peace process negotiator and State Department advisor Aaron David Miller lays out “Five Myths about Middle East Peace.” The Wilson Center public policy scholar attempts to debunk the myth that Arab-Israel peace is critical to securing U.S. interests in the Middle East with an anti-linkage argument: White “[i]t would help [regional issues... Arab-Israeli peace] will not stop Iran from acquiring enough fissile material to make a nuclear weapon.” Writing on her Commentary blog, neocon and reverse-linkage crusader Jennifer Rubin gets Miller’s name wrong and gives him a back-handed complement in her select reading of his analysis. But Think Progress’s Matt Duss dissents, writing that “no one has ever claimed that Arab-Israeli peace would do any of these things,” but rather peace will “make addressing those problems easier, by sealing up a well of resentment from which demagogues and violent extremists have for decades drawn freely and profitably.”

National Journal: At the magazine’s National Security blog, editor Richard Sia poses a question: “Will Saber Rattling And Sanctions Work Against Iran?” Steven Metz of the Strategic Studies Institute of the Army War College, responds, “No, of course not.” But of a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, he writes: “It is hard to imagine a greater strategic folly.” Metz lists a myriad of disastrous likely consequences of such a strike, and argues for Soviet-style containment of a nuclear Iran. “There is absolutely no evidence that a nuclear armed Iran would undertake conventional aggression,” he writes. “However repulsive the Iranian regime, there is no evidence that it is suicidal.” He writes that in a cost-benefit analysis, the costs of attacking Iran are too high for the U.S.: [A]s the United States develops its approach, the the focus must remain on AMERICAN national interests (Are you listening, Senator Lieberman?).”

from LobeLog: News and Views Relevant to U.S.-Iran relations for October 1st, 2010:

Weekly Standard: On the Standard’s blog, Jamie Fly, the foreign policy programs director of the neoconservative Foreign Policy Initiative, warns that Russia’s decision to deny Iran S-300 anti-aircraft missiles could change at any time. Fly picks up on a post from Foreign Policy’s The Cable blog and another from Max Boot at Commentary, and writes: “The problem is, this “bold” decision is not a final decision. Nothing in Medvedev’s announcement cancels the 2007 contract and, as [FP blogger Josh] Rogin notes, the ban could be lifted at any time.” Fly adds that if the deal goes through, Israel might be tempted to bomb Iranian nuclear sites before the hardware is in place, “given that nuclear facilities protected by the S-300 system would be much more difficult to attack.”

Reuters: Olli Heinonen, former chief inspector at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and current Harvard senior fellow, says in an interview that Iranian nuclear progress is “slow but steady.” While ”the clock is ticking…there is still time for a negotiated solution.” He believes only the Iranians themselves know why they are developing this capacity, but attribute it to “complex” Iranian desires for ”prestige,” “security” and to be a “regional player.” As for the Stuxnet virus attacking computers in Iran, he’s not convinced it was directly targeted to sabotage that country’s nuclear program.

Politico: Laura Rozen blogs about the Symantec computer security firm’s report (.pdf) on the Stuxnet worm and two markers that may, or may not, point the virus’s code to Israeli origins. One refers to an Old Testament story (see yesterday’s Daily Talking Points); the other comes from the Symantec report: a “‘do not infect’ marker” in the code that reads “19790509.” The report suggests that the date of May, 9, 1979 might be significant since it was just after Iran’s Islamic Revolution and the date of the execution of a prominent Iranian Jewish figure. While Israeli intelligence expert Yossi Melman thinks Israel, the U.S., or both are behind the attack, he believes “Israeli intelligence would not leave such clumsy clues.” Rozen herself wonders if the code is a “false flag” to mislead about the source of the attack or “a meaningful tea leaf as to the possible origin of the worm.”

This interview with Pakistani General (ret.) Hamid Gul, by Bonnie Faulkner, took place on Wednesday, September 8, 2010 on the radio show “Guns and Butter,” KPFA-FM. To read the full transcript and hear the clip, scroll down for more info.

In this important interview, Gen. Hamid Gul explains that the US war in Afghanistan was doomed from the start. As a military professional with a distinguished career, he identifies the key factors that determine success or failure in war, and shows that the US is failing in almost every area.

Gen. Gul outlines the precariousness of the lines of communication depended upon by US forces (logistics), due to their length from Karachi to Afghanistan and susceptibility to frequent attack by a hostile population in Pakistan. He then surveys the intelligence failure, recently exposed in the WikiLeaks Afghan war materials, due to the almost total lack of reliable human intelligence and the uselessness of signals intelligence in a country like Afghanistan. He is especially critical of the increasing mixture of military and intelligence personnel, with their different training and skills, in the intelligence-collection effort, and the desperate resort to private contractors for intelligence.

Gen. Gul criticizes the failure on the part of US war planners to assess the nature of the enemy in Afghanistan, a people who never give up. He concludes that the resolve and resilience of the Taliban was seriously underestimated by the Pentagon. Further, the US has supported and tried to utilize corrupt elements of Afghan society to pursue its war aims, but that these people are completely unreliable. His principal example is the US employment of a local warlord, Hazrat Ali, which resulted in the escape of Osama bin Laden from Tora Bora.

Gul shows that the objectives of the US military have changed. The first objective, the capture of Osama bin Laden, failed. So a new objective was declared, to defeat the Taliban. Gul argues that all military thinkers from Sun Tzu to MacArthur have insisted on the selection and maintenance of a single objective, and that to change the goalposts is to guarantee defeat.

He then shows that the US cannot use its superior firepower because it cannot locate targets to attack; that it has a great disadvantage in manpower, as fighters are flocking to the resistance forces because they “smell victory”; that the Taliban control the countryside, with the US forces squeezed into garrison towns from which “they dare not venture”; and that time is on the side of the resistance, as the US cannot stay there forever. He makes a strong case that the Taliban are fully supported by the population throughout the country, and therefore the US cannot defeat them without defeating the entire Afghan people.

He goes on to compare the US occupation to that of the Soviet Union, and shows the considerable advantages the Soviet Union had over the current NATO forces. Yet, the Soviet Union was trounced. Gul says that if instead of 40,000 additional troops, the US were to send 400,000, it would still lose the war.

He concludes with a description of the corruption of the Afghan puppet government and the US reconstruction efforts, and the astonishing resurgence of opium production in the country, surmising that the opium is flown out of the country on US transport planes to Europe and the United States with the full knowledge of the highest US government officials.

To read the full transcript, go to gunsandbutter.org. To listen to the audio of the show, go to http://www.kpfa.org/archive/id/63837.

from LobeLog: News and Views Relevant to U.S.-Iran relations for September 30th, 2010:

The Washington Post: Thomas Erdbrink reports that sanctions imposed against Iran by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have resulted in the Iranian rial dropping in value against the U.S. dollar (by 15 percent) and the Euro since Sunday. With hard currency scarce and exchange rates on the rise, the government will receive more rials for its petrodollars to boost its income. This in turn may lead to inflation. The UAE is one of the largest finance and trading hubs in the Middle East and has been under pressure from the U.S. to impose sanctions on Iran.

The Wall Street Journal: The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies’ Mark Dubowitz and Benjamin Weinthal repeat their warnings that European firms, specifically in Germany and Switzerland, continue to do business with Iran. They say that a Swiss firm continues to provide equipment to an Iranian engineering firm and that Swiss and German companies continue to sign energy deals with the Islamic Republic. “Neither [the Swiss firm that signed a gas contract with Iran] nor any other company has been sanctioned by the U.S. Senior Obama Administration officials have told us that they are ‘very, very close’ to a decision on which firms will face penalties under U.S. law,” say Dubowitz and Weinthal. They conclude with a warning that, “The German Chancellor Angela Merkel should be held to the promises she made, including to the U.S Congress and Israeli Knesset, to stop Iran’s nuclear drive. The same goes for the rest of Europe.”

The New York Times: John Markoff and David Sanger write there may be a Biblical reference built into the code of the Stuxnet virus, which appears to have been designed to infect computers related to Iran’s nuclear program. The reference is to “the Book of Esther, the Old Testament tale in which the Jews pre-empt a Persian plot to destroy them.” Neither the Israelis nor the U.S., which both have robust cyber-warfare programs, have claimed involvement. No matter the origins, the virus serves Western interests by “ramp[ing] up psychological pressure,” observes one unnamed former U.S. intelligence official. The reporters cite a slew of troubles Iran has encountered with its nuclear program: “[S]omething — perhaps the worm or some other form of sabotage, bad parts or a dearth of skilled technicians — is indeed slowing Iran’s advance.”

Foreign Policy: Barbara Slavin interviews former Congressman and elder statesman Lee Hamilton, who is stepping down from his role as director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Hamilton will continue to advise President Obama on foreign policy and intelligence matters. He noted the President ignored his pleas to pursue the Turkish-Brazilian-brokered fuel swap agreement, which Hamilton said “wasn’t too different from what we had suggested” to Iran the previous fall. He added the U.S. “should have tried to build on the positive aspects of it” and thought the deal would come back up in future negotiations. Though currently favoring engagement and opposed to military strikes, Hamilton told Slavin: “A year from now I don’t know how I’ll feel.”

Washington Post ace Al Kamen has an outtake from Woodward’s new book that shows how Obama was on the wrong foot on Afghanistan from his first days in office:

“It wasn’t until well into the Obama presidency,” Woodward writes, that vet­eran diplomat Richard Holbrooke, the special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan, “learned definitively how much the president didn’t care for him.” The two had met and chatted briefly on Jan. 22, 2009, when Obama named him to the job.

“‘Mr. President, I want to ask you one favor,’ Holbrooke had said, expressing gratitude for the highly visible assignment. ‘Would you do me the great favor of calling me Richard, for my wife’s sake?’” Woodward writes. “… She disliked the name ‘Dick,’ which the president had been using.”

Obama referred to Holbrooke as “Richard” during the announcement ceremony but, Woodward writes, “told others he found the request highly unusual and even strange. Holbrooke was horrified when he learned that his request — which he had repeated to no one — had been circulated by the president.”

This explains why Obama’s foreign policy wizards were too busy to notice that the Karzai family were some of the biggest rascals in Central Asian history.

Protest Against FBI Intimidation of the Peace Movement

Greater Seattle Veterans For Peace (VFP 92) and the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR) are working together to organize a Thursday afternoon rally outside of the FBI offices in downtown Seattle. Many local peace, solidarity and civil rights organizations are being invited to join us in denouncing recent FBI raids on anti-war and solidarity activists in Minnesota, Michigan and Illinois.

The protest rally and sidewalk press conference will be on Thursday, Sept. 30, 4 pm, at 1110 3rd Ave., on the northeast corner of 3rd and Spring.

For more information, call Gerry Condon at 206-499-1220.

It is critical that Veterans For Peace and all who believe in the rights of freedom of speech, assembly, and privacy make their voices heard now. If we do not, the FBI or other repressive police and military forces could literally be coming after us next.

National Veterans For Peace is calling on all VFP member to send letters of protest to the Obama administration, specifically the Department of Justice.

from LobeLog: News and Views Relevant to U.S.-Iran relations for September 29th, 2010:

The Wall Street Journal: Benoit Faucon and Spencer Swartz report on Iran’s announcement on Tuesday that it would begin exporting domestically refined gasoline. Iran has depended heavily on imported gasoline in the past. Yesterday’s announcement sends a message of defiance about international sanctions as well as an indicating that Iran has significantly boosted its domestic refinery capacity. “Iran has achieved self-sufficiency in production of gasoline,” said Ali Ashgar Arshi, the international affairs director at the National Iranian Oil Co. It also appears timed to echo statements from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that the new sanctions have only made Iran stronger.

The Weekly Standard Blog: Bill Kristol posts an excerpt from the prepared text of Joe Lieberman’s speech today at the Council on Foreign Relations. Lieberman will say, “It would also be a failure of U.S. leadership if this situation reaches the point where the Israelis decide to attempt a unilateral strike. If military action must come, the United States is in the strongest position to confront Iran and manage the regional consequences. This is not a responsibility we should outsource.” “It is time to retire our ambiguous mantra about all options remaining on the table. Our message to our friends and enemies in the region needs to become clearer: namely, that we will prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapons capability — by peaceful means if we possibly can, but with military force if we absolutely must,” concludes Lieberman.

Commentary: Daniel Gordis, senior vice president of Jerusalem’s Shalem Center, writes in the October issue of Commentary on “The Other Existential Threat.” It’s not only the possibility of an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel that poses a threat, he writes, but on a more existential level the potential of Iran possessing of such a bomb will hang over Israel’s head. In turn, this will revert Jews back “to the status of European victims-in-waiting,” “dependent on the choices their enemies make.” In outlining what is at stake for Israel, Gordis concludes with why he does not believe Israeli leaders will allow Iran to go nuclear and what his country needs from the United States: “If Barack Obama could come to understand in precisely what way this is a matter that goes to the heart of Israel’s very existence [...] his administration might recognize the profound nature of the present moment and history’s call to this president to do what must be done.”

Spiegel Online: In a contentious interview, Iran’s nuclear agency chief Ali Akbar Salehi says that Iran “will not give up [its] guaranteed right to enrich uranium to a low level for civilian purposes” and accuses the new director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, of being biased against Iran. Salehi says he is not threatening to end cooperation with the IAEA, but is issuing a “friendly, but serious, warning that one should not allow oneself to be politically instrumentalized.” He considers the MEK’s allegations about a covert nuclear facility an “unjustified allegation,” and maintains Iran is still open to a deal to acquire fuel rods for its Tehran Research Reactor.

The above cartoon is from Washington Post cartoonist Tom Toles’ sketchbook today.

Folks should photocopy this cartoon and pass it around audiences when politicians give speeches prattling about their devotions to those “who made the ultimate sacrifice for their nation”…..