Herald Sun financial commentator Terry McCrann / File Source: Herald Sun

Not even if today's GDP numbers show a booming economy.

And that probably holds for the October meeting as well. On the assumption that the GDP numbers won't show a boom, or if they do it'll be unreliable.

Then, thus, it's over to the banks. If they want to lift their home mortgage rates -- they probably would prefer to tack 15 points on top of 25 from the RBA -- they are going to have to do it all on their own.

The RBA isn't intending to cut its rate, either next week or any time soon, either. But I have to make the qualification that it would if we got ambushed by some form of global meltdown.

The simple point is that it can if necessary. Indeed, it can slash rates by as much as it did in 2008 and they would actually flow through to borrowers. Fed head Ben Bernanke can only whistle nervously and unconvincingly in a very cold wind.

There's a very tiny bit of politics in this. Or perhaps more accurately, political economy. RBA chief Glenn Stevens would not want to hike -- with the banks quite possibly adding their bit -- into the current political gridlock.

To stress, he most certainly does not want to hike. He would be entirely happy to wait and watch. And he and the RBA have earned the luxury to do that, by the timely and sensible rate hikes through the new year.

And further the 'decision' not to hike in September was really made in the decision not to hike in August.

All that said, he would be thankful that the RBA is not being put to the test. Hiking in September would be seen as very political.

But he would be thankful as much for economic as political reasons. A hike out of the blue into the gridlock could be highly destabilising.

It is not going to happen. It's on to Cup Day and a decision in the wake of the September-quarter inflation data, crucially, in the context of what is happening in the global economy and world financial markets.