Why Tony Abbott will need more than 49 percent to win

Malcolm Mackerras (pictured below) is the man who invented the pendulum. Malcolm loves his pendulum, and so should you; it is a very useful tool.

Since the AEC started doing full preference counts in all seats in the 1980s, it has been possible for anyone to make a pendulum by simply ranking all seats in order of two party preferred vote. Here is the current (very pretty) Mackerras pendulum; it’ll open in a new window and you can toggle.

What a difference a leadership change makes. Until Wednesday of last week, most political observers favoured, though not greatly, the Rudd government to survive the next election. Now they nearly all agree Labor “could not win” under Kevin Rudd.

Hey, let’s all live in the present, where the fact that X has occurred retrospectively vindicates it. A psychologist would probably tell us these after the event rationalisations are part of the human condition, but aren’t we supposed to have our thinking hats on?

(Repost from old Mumble)
Kristina Keneally is still preferred premier in the latest NSW Newspoll in the Oz!

Irony on It’s time to roll Barry O’Farrell who languishes on both the preferred premier and approval ratings. Barry can’t win on these numbers.

(Oh, and the Coalition is ahead in the arcane “voting intentions” measure 61 to 39.) Irony off

And another thing: tweets to Kevin

You’d have read about the former PM (and wife) continuing to tweet. If you’re wondering why, you can see the tweets that have been sent his way, including many nice ones, here and entering @kevinruddpm into the search box.

(Repost from old Mumble)
Lots of people reckon Rudd needs to get or regain something called a “narrative” about why they’re there to win the election.

Rubbish: the only narrative in town is that Abbott & co are dangerous and we the government are by contrast safe and doing what governments do, which is govern. There’ll be plenty of time for wild stories from around 7:10pm AEST election day, whichever way it goes.

And media narratives tend to reflect current wisdom about how the parties are travelling – which largely comes from published opinion polls.

The prime minister’s unhealthy interest in fluff and nonsense has bored our beloved country stupid for three years and gotten his government into its current pickle. It should not be encouraged.

Tony Abbott is a “risk”

Correct message Labor. But you’re repeating the word so much it’s in danger of losing power. Why not give the tale some interest, let people join the dots to come up with the word/concept themselves, that way it’s more likely to stick.

Abbott’s task is, naturally, to negate the idea of “risk”. No-one really cares if you’re “authentic” or “real” or have “convictions” or whatever; if they’re tired of the incumbent, the main thing they want from you is that you won’t make a mess of things.

Shadow cabinet was right to kybosh his handout to stay-at-home mums.