Election winners usually receive a boost in the polls. Not this one.

It is unusual for a winning party’s primary support to dip in post-election opinion polls, but that’s what’s happened to the Labor Party. In the Newspoll taken over the weekend, Labor is on 35, the Coalition 42 and Greens on 14. Two party preferred it’s 50 50, the same as the last Newspoll and the August election. Tables here.

One of the stories doing the rounds about this year’s federal election has to do with Kevin Rudd’s vote in his seat of Griffith.

Some people say that because the electorate swung by 3.9 percent to the LNP, voters there approved of Rudd’s removal as prime minister. Or didn’t disapprove too much. Or something.

In March this year, South Australia’s Rann government comfortably won a majority of seats despite getting a low, low 48 percent of the two party preferred vote.

This produced much praise, including from Mike Rann, for the man behind his marginal seats strategy, Bruce Hawker of Labor-connected lobbyists Hawker-Britton.

What makes an effective opposition leader? And what sort of an opposition leader is Tony Abbott?

There are theories about the role of oppositions in parliamentary democracies, but most party loyalists would see it as winning the next election.

Abbott was elected to oppose the government’s ETS, which set events in train that almost saw him become prime minister. 

The federal election this year saw a 6.8 percent non-turnout and 5.6 percent informal vote.

As has been described by Brian Costar and Peter Browne in Inside Story, and Tim Colebatch in the Age these are historically high numbers.

Australia has compulsory voting because, well, because we have it.

Colonial Australia was an electoral trail-blazer.

The idea of the government supplying ballot papers, with candidates’ names on them, was an Australian one. 

In two months Victorians have to do it all again. Go to the polls.

Most expect the Brumby government to easily win on 27 November. The most recent Newspoll had them ahead 55 to 45 after preferences.

But it’s likely to be much closer than that. In fact, there’s a pretty good chance of a change of government. There’ll almost certainly be a decent swing to the Coalition.

How well did the “sophomore surge” work at last month’s election?

The sophomore surge, you may recall, rests on the idea that members in the house of representatives routinely get personal votes.

Personal votes come from a percent or several of voters who would otherwise vote for the other side of politics but quite like their local member and so vote for them.

Adolf Hitler wrote that a big lie was more believable than a small one. This is probably true, but there’s another thing about lies: the more they are believed, the bigger they get.

For several months, NSW Labor sources have been explaining, through reporters, how they “saved” the federal government. 

With its cobbled together 76 seats against the opposition’s 74, the Gillard government is only one by-election loss away from a fresh general poll.

By-elections usually see swings against governments. This is because little is at stake and voters feel able to deliver a boot up the backside. They also often coincide with mid-term government slumps.

The counting is over and Labor ever-so-narrowly won the two party preferred vote.

Recall this post and before that this one.

See also William the Pollbludger at Crikey who mentions pollies and journos (and the odd academic) who stubbornly refused to allow facts to intrude on what “felt” right.

Is Mark Latham that influential?

At the election last month the House of Representatives informal vote rate jumped. From 4.0 percent in 2007 it looks to have been around 5.6 percent this year. That’s a big leap.

Could the former Labor leader, who advised viewers to vote informal on his 60 Minutes segment during the campaign, be responsible?

Last month’s election should hopefully see off a couple of enduring furphies.

One deals with the so-called importance of the preferred prime minister rating.

Optional preferential voting (OPV) is the electoral reform the Howard government didn’t implement but should have.

If last month’s election had been held under OPV, Tony Abbott would now be prime minister. And it’s an inherently good idea, regardless of which side it would favour.

Rod Cameron had a spray at the ALP’s federal election campaign on ABC1’s Lateline on Wednesday night.

The former Labor pollster who was involved in the party’s campaigns in the 1970s and 1980s is retiring from his company ANOP.

Cameron was very critical of the party’s obsessive reliance on qualitative research, aka “focus groups”.