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If the rumors are true and Verizon does eventually get to carry the iPhone, AT&T's CEO should probably be a little more worried than he is. Analyst Drake Johnstone says that if Verizon does carry Apple's smartphone, 40% of its customers are likely ready to jump ship for another carrier. That's 6 million of AT&T's estimated 15 million customers, all yearning to break free of their bonds to AT&T.

That sounds high to me, and indeed, Johnstone admits that, as time goes on, that number will probably be much lower. Not only are AT&T's plans tough to get out of (and therefore not really worth the trouble to switch), but even if you do, they've just upped their termination fees, which will put another roadblock in the way. And Johnstone also says that AT&T's coverage is getting better by the day, so by the time Verizon does have the iPhone, AT&T's technical problems might not be so bad.

Even if the number isn't quite as high as 40%, iPhone exclusivity has been a huge boon for AT&T in the past, and losing it won't be good for the company. If Apple announces a Verizon deal later this year, investors will be keeping a huge watch on what AT&T ends up dealing with.

It's what we thought... until the Wall Street Journal told us we were wrong. It's what USA Today originally reported, although nobody else was ever able to confirm it... until now. Nilay Patel at Engadget has unearthed some 2008 filings in a 2007 class-action lawsuit that clarify the matter: the AT&T/Apple deal for exclusive domestic service on the iPhone, which has caused much wailing and gnashing of teeth, was originally set for a five-year term. That would put the earliest appearance of a Verizon iPhone into the summer of 2012 -- assuming that there wasn't any reason for one or the other party to break off the agreement.

Those disclosures are a couple of years old now, and the circumstances may have changed a bit (exclusivity may have been extended since then), but at least there's some grounding for what the original half-decade setup was intended to be. Even though recent analyst musings led to the surmise that the iPad's bargain data plans, which are delivered sans contract, might have been a carrot in extending AT&T's hold on the iPhone for a few more months, it's not at all clear that an extension would have been necessary to lock in sales through the end of this year.

TechCrunch has the word that Apple may be implementing a "VIP" ad program within its upcoming iAd service. An email reportedly sent from a Quattro sales representative mentions a "Verification of iTunes Purchase" program, in which an advertiser for a certain app would be able to see his or her users' iTunes purchases, and deliver ads based on that information. Quattro is the mobile ad company purchased by Apple a while back, and presumably the division overseeing iAds.

That verification process would allow app creators to not only know which of their customers has already bought other apps of theirs, but it would enable them to only show you ads for apps you haven't yet purchased. In Flick Baseball Pro, for example, you wouldn't see ads for Flick Fishing if you'd already bought it from the store.

That might give Apple the advantage against other ad programs on the App Store, and even if not, it would let them charge a premium price. Since everyone else is guessing at iTunes sales data, Apple would actually be able to deliver real numbers for iTunes purchases, and help app developers target app ads.

We have received exclusive access (via an envelope slipped under the door of TUAW headquarters somewhere west of Socorro, NM) to a set of documents outlining last-minute changes to Apple's iPad, which is due to arrive in stores, homes, and offices throughout America on Saturday, April 3rd. These documents are part of a required Apple filing with the FCC*, released today -- April 1 -- and they show hardware features that have not previously been seen in public demos or videos of Apple's new tablet device. A gallery of photos accompanies this post and shows these changes for the first time.

First, and most important to the estimated quarter-million people who will have iPads in their hands on Saturday, is that there will be a front-facing digital camera on the device. As you can see in the gallery, the camera is a 6.0 megapixel unit with a zoom lens. It's apparent that Apple partnered with Canon on the camera -- the first time the Cupertino-based computer manufacturer has gone "out of the house" on a digital camera since the original Apple QuickTake was designed and manufactured by Kodak.

The second feature makes a lot of sense, considering the power of the Canon-designed camera on the device. It's an SD card slot, which means that photos and videos captured with the camera can now be easily transferred to other devices via inexpensive and commonly-available SD cards.

In the documents, there are also details of other members of the iPad "Most Wanted List" that appear to have made it to the shipping. In particular, Flash has been added as well. That's right -- Flash can be seen in one of the photos. Be sure to click the Source link below for a better look at the documents.

At the age of twenty-six, Aaron Patzer founded the financial website Mint.com. In many ways Mint was much like an Apple product: it had a simple interface, it was easy to understand and use, and many of Mint's early adopters became very loyal evangelists. Word of mouth spread, and just 18 months after its launch (Mint officially went public in 2007), Mint had added its one millionth user.

To the dismay of many, Mint sold to Intuit in September 2009 for $170 million. I say dismay because many users of Quicken products had been less than thrilled with Intuit's offerings for some time, and some people were concerned what a twenty-year-old company that seemed stuck in its ways would do with a popular user-friendly Web 2.0 startup.

Out of all the negative press, perhaps Mac users could be forgiven for having the most anxiety over the acquisition. Many had abandoned Quicken Mac 2007 in favor of Mint.com. Mac users wanted to move on from the stale Quicken ecosystem and go with something simple and easy. Now, that simple and easy solution had moved to where the users had escaped from.

Luckily, Intuit wasn't like other companies who buy smaller start-ups just to eliminate a competitor. Intuit recognized that Patzer and his team possessed the much-needed original financial software ideas and UI design mojo to put a spark in their aging products. In November 2009, Intuit made Aaron Patzer VP/GM of Intuit's Personal Finance Group -- which left him in charge of Intuit's personal finance offerings, including Quicken for Mac.

The iPad is still a few months away from actual release, but it already has publishers scrambling to be in the right place when the revolution comes. First, Amazon gave in to Macmillan's bid to raise prices on their own store, and now HarperCollins is putting the pressure on that same site to raise eBook prices from $9.99 up to $14.99 or higher. Amazon finds itself in between a rock and an iPad -- if they don't give in to publishers' demands, they could find themselves abandoned for an exclusive Apple deal, but if they do raise prices, sales will start dropping even before the iPad appears. Jobs predicted about this much last week in an interview with Walt Mossberg, saying that publishers would run afoul of the Amazon store, and Jobs would be more than happy to pick them up in iBooks.

But the real question is: how much will Apple charge? Historically, Jobs has been pretty antagonistic on pricing against content providers, only recently giving in to the first price increase in the history of iTunes. At the Apple event the other week, Jobs said on stage that prices on the Kindle and the iPad for books would be "the same," so while fleeting images of the iPad showed bestsellers at around $10 (which is what Amazon charges), it's possible that Jobs would go with the $14.99 price to woo publishers over to his side.

It'll be an interesting battle -- when the iTunes music store first opened, there basically were no strong competitors in terms of other online music retailers. With the iBooks service, Jobs and the iPad are wading into already populated waters. And while Amazon is feeling the heat of the iPad even before it's on store shelves, odds are that they're not going to go down without an eventual fight.

Mashable's Ben Parr sat down at CES with Phil Libin, CEO of Evernote, which is not only a TUAW favorite, but acts as your "external brain," saving little clips and bits of information both collectible from and accessible by any device you happen to have with you. We love the app, and while it isn't a Mac exclusive, there are both Mac and iPhone versions, and apparently they're doing very well. Libin tells us in the video that not only are they picking up five thousand users a day (!), but over half of their two million users are using the iPhone app [iTunes link]. As Libin says, the app is "very good" -- it's easy to use (and free), the iPhone's camera makes picking up even real-life scraps of information super easy, and Evernote is designed to share information back to your Mac. Libin says that "most" of the iPhone users do access their information back on other PCs.

Libin also talks about power users of the service -- there's one in the system that has over 80,000 notes, though due to privacy, Libin doesn't share what they're keeping in there. And apparently one issue they're dealing with is retention, even for people who have used the service. I can identify with that -- while Evernote is a great service, it's tough to remember that you can use it to remember things, and for that reason I think that even with two million users, it's still very underrated. Libin sounds like he's on top of things, though -- he promises that they're always working on not only helping users figure out how to use the service, but also in polishing it and making it even easier and simpler.

This afternoon I had the opportunity to talk to Jason Citron and Eros Resmini of Aurora Feint, the company behind the OpenFeint social gaming platform. At 360iDev, Aurora Feint announced the availability of OpenFeint 2.1 to the developers on hand, as well as touting that over 200 active games using OpenFeint are now on sale in the App Store.

Citron noted that there are about 500 indie developers, like those in attendance at 360iDev in Denver this week, who are working on other gaming titles using the OpenFeint platform. OpenFeint 2.1 is available immediately for download at www.openfeint.com, and information on the open and free business model for the platform is on the site as well.

OpenFeint is being used in some of the top games in the App Store right now, including geoDefense Swarm (which debuted at #2 when it launched), Rope 'n Fly 2 (currently in the top 50), and Apple featured games Unify and Above & Beyond. The platform provides a way for developers to add social gaming elements to their work without reinventing the wheel, as standard APIs are used instead.

TUAW will have more news from 360iDev tomorrow, so stay tuned!

Has your favorite movie gone missing from iTunes or Netflix lately? The reason could be television, says CNET -- apparently a slew of movies on iTunes and Netflix's streaming service have recently fallen prey to television exclusive agreements. With the onset of Apple TV and apps like Boxee making it possible to stream Netflix, TV networks with exclusive showing agreements have made sure that while they've got a lock on a movie, we can't watch it anywhere else.

Of course, as CNET notes, it's about the money (isn't it always?). If studios can make more money from the TV networks than they can from online rentals, then obviously they're going to go with television. The only problem with that, however, is that with an exclusive agreement, they'll never know, will they?

And of course the other issue here is the actual definition of places like iTunes and Netflix -- obviously, retail stores aren't barred from carrying these movies, so does that mean that Netflix and iTunes are actually content channels rather than retailers? Tough issue. You have to think that it'll eventually be settled in favor of digital distribution (what consumer wouldn't want to watch a movie on their own time rather than sticking to a TV network's schedule), but until studios are convinced otherwise, exclusivity agreements will likely be the rule.

[via Apple Insider]

According to this Dutch-language report, O2 says it does not have an iPhone contract with Apple to distribute the iPhone in England The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland not including her overseas territories. A spokesman denied signing a contract and would not discuss any ongoing negotiations. This contradicts earlier reports that O2 would provide exclusive iPhone service in the UK. Rumors are flying regarding European iPhone distribution deals but there is still no official word about anything yet over at the Apple PR site.

Thanks, Habbie.

Apple and the Beatles have a long, litigious history. As you may be aware, the Beatles created a record label on which they sold their music. The name of that label? Apple.

Apple Computer, many years ago, agreed not to sell music so that there would never be any confusion between the two companies. Then along came the iPod and the iTunes Store and then another lawsuit.

It would seem that Apple and Apple are letting bygones be bygones and are close to reaching an exclusive deal for the Beatles catalog. Steve had personally invited the Beatles to join the iTunes Store, and it looks like they may take him up on the offer. The iTunes Store, if Fortune is right, will be the only place where you will be able to purchase digital versions of the Beatles work. This will be a big boost to the iTunes Store, if it is true. Though I wonder if the Zune Market place is working on getting the Rutles' catalog.

Thanks, Sam G.

Limited edition iTunes Music Store gift cards that you can collect and trade with your friends? That's right, and they're exclusively available at Target. Cards featuring Jewel, Kanye West, James Blunt, Mariah Carey, Hoobastank, Dixie Chicks, and Panic! at the Disco have custom artwork and grant you access to exclusive bonus material. The rest of the 13 cards have custom artwork though, sadly, no super cool extra material.

All the cards come in $15 denominations and are available now.

[via iLounge]

iLounge is reporting that Incase has pulled out all their case-making stops and introduced a complete lineup of cases for Apple products that commemorate New York and some of its major landmarks. To top things off, these cases are exclusive to the new 24/7 5th Avenue Apple Store that opened last weekend.

The lineup consists of white and black cases for the 5G iPod, iPod nano and MacBook Pro. No word yet on whether Incase has been chosen to create the leather case for the giant glass cube that Dave mentioned yesterday.

[image via iLounge]