Last updated: October 12, 2010

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Prepare for RBA to lift its official cash rate

RBA

Economists say the latest housing data is likely to prompt the RBA to lift its official cash rate / File

  • Housing data points to rate rise 
  • "Biggest monthly price hike in five years"
  • Experts predict rate rise

RISING house prices and improving credit demand could sway the Reserve Bank of Australia to resume lifting its official cash rate at its meeting next Tuesday.

New data released today showed house prices posted their biggest monthly increase in at least five years in January, while consumers appeared to be regaining confidence in taking on credit despite last year's interest rate rises, The Courier-Mail reports.

The reports came on top of this week's stronger-than-expected construction and capital expenditure data, upbeat business investment plans for the next 18 months and recent robust labour force data.

Still, pricing on financial markets suggests the rate decision will be a line-ball call as to whether the central bank lifts the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.0 per cent at its meeting.

Economists too aren't overly confident that it will move after February's shock decision to stay at 3.75 per cent.

"On balance we expect the Reserve Bank to lift rates next week, but we don't hold the view with supreme confidence," Commonwealth Securities (CommSec) chief economist Craig James said.

Likewise, JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters viewed the decision as "something of a coin toss".

"Our forecast is that the RBA will leave policy steady on Tuesday although, like that of the market, our level of conviction is low," Mr Walters said.

"The case for a further rate rise is convincing, but it was even stronger back in February when the RBA bucked unanimous expectations for a fourth straight hike."

Still, whether or not the there is a rate rise next week, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens has made it clear that there will be further increases this year given that lending rates are still 50 to 100 basis points below their decade average.

Despite the three rate rises in as many months late last year, there was a modest improvement in credit demand in January, RBA data showed.

Total credit rose by 0.4 per cent in the month, double economists' expectations and the fastest pace of monthly growth in a year.

Demand for housing loans lead the way, rising 0.7 per cent and matching December's growth despite the end of the government's increased first home owners grant at the end of last year.

Other personal loans rose by 0.5 per cent, lifting the annual rate to 0.2 per cent, the first positive yearly rate since September 2008.

But business credit growth fell a twelfth consecutive month.

Also released was the RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Australian Home Value Index - Australia's largest property database - which showed home prices rose by 1.8 per cent in January, the biggest increase in the five-year history of the series.

Home prices were up 11.8 per cent on a year ago, the fastest rate in 22 months, although CommSec's Mr James pointed out that prices are coming off a low base.

He said the strong gains represent "great news" for homeowners, serving to boost wealth levels and confidence.

"While budding home buyers would prefer prices were a little lower, its clear that they wouldn't be keen to get in the property market if prices were going backwards."