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June 05, 2010
At the Personal Democracy Forum 2010, I moderated an
interesting panel -- including
Jane Hamsher,
Lisa Stone and
Patrick Ruffini -- on the continued importance of blogs in politics even as the use of social media has exploded.
Rather than spending time on the mechanics of using blogs for political purposes, we mostly discussed the actual effect blogs have had in specific races.
See more...
Rep. Mark Kirk's (R-IL) problems with "
misremembering" or "casualness ... with details," as he described it last week, "go beyond his military record to his comments about foreign policy issues that are supposed to be his strong suit," the
Chicago Sun-Times reports.
Confirming the results of every other recent survey, a new
Field Poll in California shows Carly Fiorina (R) leading Tom Campbell (R) in the GOP race for Senate, 37% to 22%, with Chuck DeVore in third at 19%.
A new
Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada shows Brian Sandoval (R) remains the odds-on favorite to win the Republican gubernatorial nomination away from Gov. Jim Gibbons (R).
Sandoval leads Gibbons, 47% to 33%, with Gibbons faring especially poorly among women voters.
Said pollster Brad Coker: "When you are an incumbent with a high negative rating, that is almost impossible to overcome."
June 04, 2010
A new
DailyKos/Research 2000 survey in Arkansas fins Bill Halter (D) edging Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) in their runoff election, 49% to 45%, with another 6% still undecided.
The runoff is on Tuesday.
A new
Public Policy Polling survey shows Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA) leading his possible Democratic opponents for reelection by 26 to 30 points.
"Grassley's approval numbers are less than stellar, with 46% of voters approving of him and 37% disapproving. But for now voters don't see any of his potential Democratic opponents as viable alternatives."
"He's very thoughtful. I mean, who comes out with a 240 page book to do a job. I have read parts of the book. Are you kidding? It's 240 pages."
-- Food Network personality Sandra Lee, quoted by
Politico, on her boyfriend, Andrew Cuomo.
In a radio interview on
WVOC-AM, Nikki Haley said she will resign if she is elected governor and the
allegations that she had extramarital affairs are proven to be true:
Host: "If something comes out after you win the primary, or after you win the general election become South Carolina's next governor, if something were to come out that validates the claims that have been made against you -- in terms of stepping out on your husband and on your marriage -- would you resign as governor because basically the way you've handled it has been an absolute, 100 percent denial? Would you resign or would it be dragged out?
Haley: "Yes."
Host: "Yes, you would resign?"
Haley: "Yes."
The latest
Political Insiders Poll finds President Obama fairing poorly in his response to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, with Democrats giving him an average grade of C- and Republicans nearly failing Obama with an average grade of D-.
Democrats: "Too little sense of urgency and command in the early days. And too much confidence in BP's ability to handle this crisis... While it's easy to say it's BP's fault and only BP has the know-how to fix it, somehow I don't think most Americans thought this was the change they were voting for in 2008."
Republicans: "Obama's core voter attribute was competence. And this has taken a big hit because of the Gulf oil spill... I never thought we would say 'Brownie' wasn't so bad! Can you imagine what the Democrats would be saying if this was on George Bush's watch?"
Newsweek says Democrats are actively downplaying expectations for their chances in November because of an important rule in politics: "Political results are only as useful as they are unexpected."
"Dig a little deeper at the DNC, DSCC, and DCCC, and you'll find that the Democrats in charge are actually rather confident about getting their fellow Dems elected this year. The reason? They have a plan -- a plan that they believe will produce much better results on Election Day than anyone expects."
Bottom line: "This year, careful planning, internal GOP conflict, an improving economic climate, and yet-to-be-introduced technologies have the potential to limit Democratic losses to less-than-catastrophic proportions."
The U.S. economy added 431,000 jobs in May -- but 411,000 of those were temporary government hires for the 2010 Census, the
Wall Street Journal reports. The private sector created just 41,000 jobs after adding 218,000 jobs last month.
The unemployment rate fell only moderately to 9.7%.
A new
Field Poll in Calfiornia shows Meg Whitman (R) with a 2 to 1 lead over Steve Poizer (R) in the Republican race for governor, 51% to 25%, with another 18% undecided.
In supporting a rival to Nikki Haley (R) for South Carolina governor, state Sen. Jake Knotts (R) used a slur for Arabs to describe both her and President Obama,
The State reports.
Said Knotts: "We already got one raghead in the White House. We don't need another in the governor's mansion."
Knotts later defended his comments saying they were "intended in jest."
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) alerted Senate committee chairmen "that he plans to move comprehensive energy legislation in July,"
The Hill reports.
"Reid asked the chairmen to recommend legislation to deal with the Gulf oil spill before July 4 so that leaders can include those ideas in the comprehensive energy package."
June 03, 2010
"I simply misremembered it wrong."
-- Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL), in an interview with the
Chicago Sun-Times, explaining how he exaggerated his military record.
In trying to explain how he might have exaggerated his military record in the past, Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) told the
Chicago Sun Times in an interview that "he was never fired on as he flew over Iraq or Kosovo" but also insisted "he never said he was."
However, there's a
video of Kirk on the House floor saying just that: "I just returned from Iraq and the trend is for the better. The last time I was in Iraq, I was in uniform flying at 20,000 feet and the Iraqi Air Defense network was shooting at us."
See more...
As many readers have noted, the latest Rasmussen surveys of U.S. Senate races in Connecticut and Kentucky seem to have swung wildly back in line with other recent polls.
Pollster.com notes "something funny has happened in the past four days."
Markos Moulitsas: "Remember, Rasmussen has two modes -- the narrative setting mode, which he's used to great effect this year to fuel the 'Democrats are doomed' narrative, and the 'get it right' mode he uses the closer we get to the actual election. Well, we're not that close to November yet, but apparently he felt threatened by having such massive outliers vis a vis other pollsters. So he rushed new polling more in line with the composite polling trendlines."
In an email, Scott Rasmussen declined to respond.
A
Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research tracking poll in California shows Meg Whitman (R) holds a commanding lead over Steve Poizner in the GOP gubernatorial primary, 48% to 20%.
Said pollster Adam Probolsky: "Whitman has this sewn up. It's done. She's going to really embarrass Steve Poizner."
In the GOP Senate primary, Carly Fiorina (R) has pulled away from rival Tom Campbell (R), 37% to 22%, with Chuck DeVore (R) at 12%. There's been "dramatic shift toward Fiorina over the past six weeks."
The latest
DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Nevada shows Sharron Angle leading the Republican Senate primary with 34%, followed by Sue Lowden (R) at 25% and Danny Tarkanian (R) at 24%.
These are very similar numbers to a
Suffolk poll released earlier today.
More surprising, however, is that Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) now leads each of his potential Republican challengers. He beats Angle, 43% to 37%, tops Lowden, 42% to 38%, and leads Tarkanian, 43% to 39%.
Nearly 18 months after his arrest, former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) walked into a federal courthouse this morning to begin one of the most highly anticipated corruption trials in recent memory.
Daniel Libit is live blogging the action.
A new
Rasmussen survey in Missouri shows Roy Blunt (R) and Robin Carnahan (D) running neck-and-neck in Missouri's U.S. Senate race.
Blunt barely edges Carnahan, 45% to 44%.
"A candidate that fails across-the-board like that obviously needs to find something else productive to do with his life."
-- Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL), in an interview with the
Birmingham News, on being upset for the Democratic nomination for Alabama governor.
The latest
Rasmussen poll confirms that Richard Blumenthal (D) still holds a solid lead in Connecticut's U.S. Senate race after he admitted misstating his military record during the Vietnam War.
Blumenthal is ahead of Linda McMahon (R) in a general election match up, 56% to 33% -- a lead very similar to other recent polls.
In an interview with
WHNT-TV, Rep. Parker Griffith (R-AL) talked about whether it was a bad move to switch political parties at the end of 2009.
Said Griffith: "I do not regret changing parties. I think it may have been, politically, a mistake, but on principle, it was the right thing to do."
A new
Public Policy Polling survey in Iowa shows former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) leading Gov. Chet Culver (D) by 15 points, 52% to 37%.
Key finding: Culver's approval rating is a paltry 28% with 56% of voters giving him bad marks.
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