Problems associated with a rapid buildup of deficits and debt should not be compounded by ill-advised, ad hoc policies.
The postbubble stresses that will emerge around the globe in 2010 will produce substantially more market volatility than was seen in 2009.
The complex and rapidly evolving Sino-American relationship has become the most important bilateral relationship either country has.
The U.S. economy is still struggling, and the Federal Reserve should not try to stop the slide of the dollar; doing so would be an abrupt removal of still-necessary stimulus.
Wall Street stocks are rising again, but will a financial bounce boost the real economy in coming quarters?
Three AEI scholars discuss the financial crisis and the misguided policies that led to it.
Three lessons stand out from the financial crisis; one hopes that they will provide guidance for a quicker policy response in future crises.
China's aggressive attempts to maintain an 8 percent growth rate carry substantial risks.
Deflation remains the signal concern in this economy, but inflation worries are not unreasonable given current fiscal trends.
The idea that home ownership confers special benefits on American society is deeply embedded in our culture--so much so that our national tax policy confers a special benefit of its own on it.
Ben Bernanke and others are pointing to "green shoots" that they say are signs of economic recovery, but there are fundamental contradictions embedded in the scenario.
Unless sustained positive U.S. consumption growth appears at midyear, it will be extraordinarily difficult for China to sustain high growth rates based on rebounding exports.
The Fed's balance sheet expansion is the only game in town when it comes to avoiding a total financial meltdown.
As the global financial and economic crisis has grown increasingly dire, market participants and policymakers alike have looked to three past crisis models.
The global financial and economic crisis that emerged in August 2007 has entered a dismaying fourth phase.
The Fed has made history by actively initiating a battle against deflation through quantitative easing.
A deflationary spiral must be avoided at all costs since such a development would virtually ensure a global depression.
The accelerating adverse feedback loop must be broken before further wealth destruction and more intense economic contraction usher in a global depression as devastating as the one in the 1930s.
There is a simple solution to the housing-bubble problem that lies behind the current panic: an institution that makes a mortgage loan should be required to keep that loan on its balance sheet.
The ultimate lesson from the collapse of the housing bubble and the attendant credit crisis is that financial and economic cycles will always be with us.
AEI Online
August 1, 2008
As concerns about the economy grow, wecan expecta continued, rapid drop in home prices, the emergence of more troubled financial intermediaries, and continued "rescue packages."
The Fed is in a bind, pulled toward easier monetary policy by a weak economy and fragile credit markets, while simultaneously needing to resist higher inflation.
Will the U.S. economy improve or worsen between now and Election Day in November?
The bursting of the U.S. housing bubble has beenfollowed by suggestions that the worst is over, but the underlying problem has grown worse.
While tax rebate checks may boost growth slightly, the persistent drag from wealth losses will undercut the Fed's forecast for a sustainable growth rebound.
The Fed should use reflation to stabalize the housing market.
The pattern of market panic and reaction by the Fed to save the day has been repeated over and over again and with rapidly increasing frequency since last August.
Japan's experience in the 1990s is a compelling reminder that the worst approach to dealing with the unusual set of problems we currently face would be to deny that they exist.
AEI Online
February 1, 2008
Comingafter a sudden deterioration of household finances tied to the fallout from falling home prices and stocks, the stimulus package will not avert the recession that is already underway.
AEI Online
January 1, 2008
The prospects for the U.S. economy in 2008 are not good, but there is hope for 2009.
AEI Online
December 1, 2007
As a matter of policy, central banks should not relieve financial firms of the consequences of the firms' risky behavior.
AEI Online
November 1, 2007
The subprime superfund will inappropriately reward financial players who undervalued risk and got burned.
AEI Online
October 1, 2007
The global economy is rebalancing itself away from U.S. demand growth and toward global demand growth.
Is a recession in the cards for the upcoming year?
AEI Online
August 28, 2007
What happens to global financial markets when liquidity dries up?
Behind the troubling rise of uncertainty about the mortgage derivative market lies a complex, unfolding story of the relationship between the real economy and the financial sector.
What is the cause of the abrupt rise in interest rates?
American consumers' spending tendencies have managed to keep GDP in positive territory.
AEI Online
April 20, 2007
How is capital spending affecting the economy?
How are differences in inflation affecting the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan?
Testimony on therole of currency in the U.S.-China relationship.
AEI Online
March 21, 2007
Will there be a recession in 2007?
AEI Online
February 26, 2007
Now that the worst of the housing slowdown is over, potential homeowners have something new to worry about: the subprime mortgage market.
A new railway, connecting Beijing to Lhasa, is opening Tibet to commerce and tourism.
AEI Online
January 26, 2007
What should we expect from stock profits and interest rates before the end of 2007?
AEI Online
January 4, 2007
The United States and China both seek to preserve their own wealth, but each country has much to teach the other.
AEI Online
November 30, 2006
No one ever said that avoiding recession after a housing bubble would be easy.
AEI Online
October 23, 2006
How will the Fed's Open Market Committee respond to persistent inflation in 2007?
AEI Online
September 27, 2006
The central banks of the world’s two largest economies--the United States andJapan--are both worried but hopeful about inflation.
AEI Online
August 22, 2006
The Fed's recent decision to raise the federal funds rate may have unintended consequences.
AEI Online
August 1, 2006
Despite predictions, both the broad trade-weighted dollar and the dollar exchange rate against other major currencies such as the yen and the euro have been remarkably stable.
Markets should understand that the Fed will be unwavering in its determination to bring inflation back into the 1 to 2 percent target range.
Is Ben Bernanke making a mistake by being honest with financial markets?
What is so special about hedge funds? How do they relate to mutual funds?
The Chinese and the leaders of other major nations of the world economy cannot continue to complain about global imbalances while resisting exchange rate adjustments.
AEI Online
March 31, 2006
The time has come for a tighter monetary policy, and central banks in the United States, Europe, and Japan have all begun to apply it.
AEI Online
February 22, 2006
The Bank of Japan must exit quantitative easing and normalize monetary policy with a return to modest positive interest rates.
AEI Online
January 31, 2006
The asset bubble has spread to long-term government bonds, especially those with inflation protection.
AEI Online
December 20, 2005
Will consumers continue to use easier access to credit tied to wealth increases so that spending rebounds early in 2006 and poses an inflation threat that forces the Fed to tighten further?
AEI Online
December 1, 2005
While the dollar’s value will continue to fluctuate in global currency markets, the factors underscoring its long-run attractiveness will probably remain.
AEI Online
October 31, 2005
Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi’s postal service privatization drive will play a significant role in sustaining a higher level of economic performance for Japan’s economy.
Tragedies can present opportunities to improve growth and future prospects, but rebuilding without enhanced flood protection in the wake of Hurricane Katrina would be unwise.
AEI Online
September 1, 2005
American consumers continue to make purchases despite recent interest rate boosts and ongoing high energy prices.
Wall Street Journal
August 17, 2005
The Federal Reserveneeds to keep moving cautiously on tightening over the year because the housing slowdown will probably arrive suddenly as speculative sentiment dies.
AEI Online
August 1, 2005
If the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, it could weaken both the U.S. housing boom and the global economy.
We willprobably witness a major turnover among European leadership; younger, more pragmatic leaders will see that, ultimately, Europe’s monetary arrangements need to change.
Two underlying drags are hindering the economy: the rise in energy prices over the past year and the resulting upward pressure on inflation.
The Federal Reserve's measured move toward a "neutral" federal funds rate, the short-term rate that keeps the economy growing at about 3.5 percent, is a tricky process.
The Federal Reserve should proactively move to end the housing bubble to aovid even more disruption of financial markets should the bubble burst on its own.
AEI Online
February 24, 2005
Saving is a good thing, but it is possible to overdo it.
AEI Online
February 1, 2005
The United States may press for further currency realignment, meaning, in effect, a weaker dollar, at the upcoming G7 meeting.
AEI Online
January 1, 2005
Pundits who have predicted higher U.S. interest rates due to budget and current account deficits are wrong.
AEI Online
December 1, 2004
Asian countries are actively supporting the dollar in order to avoid the deflationary pressure that would come with an appreciation of their currencies against it.
Wall Street Journal
November 15, 2004
Another year of dollar pegging will mean a U.S. current account deficit of over $700 billion and a negative U.S. saving rate.
AEI Online
November 1, 2004
Markets are flashing warning signs as interest rates and the stock market grind lower and the dollar has slipped to a six-month low.
Wall Street Journal
October 19, 2004
With U.S.inflation and growth both falling, there is no inflation risk attached to a pause in Federal Reserverate increases.
AEI Online
October 1, 2004
The U.S. economy faces a challenging year as it adjusts to the withdrawal of substantial stimulus (both monetary and fiscal), to higher oil prices, and to higher short-term interest rates.
AEI Online
September 1, 2004
Cushioning the pain of higher oil prices by cutting oil taxes or drawing on the Strategic Petroleum Reserves would only prolong the period of adjustment to higher oil prices.
AEI Online
August 1, 2004
The coming year will see the Federal Reserve decide whether to target price stability or try to sustain growth and financial markets.
With the goods newson Japan's economycomes one problem: the interest rate on Japan's government bonds--of which there is ample supply--is rising rapidly.
China's creaky financial system seems destined for an economic hard landing this year.
The U.S. economymay be nearing the end of a benign, unusual period of faster growth and lower inflation and moving into a period of slower growth and higher inflation.
Exacerbation of excess supply in the world economy as U.S. demand growth slows would be reflected in market prices.
Wall Street Journal
March 3, 2004
Japan's intensifying deflation could be relieved by replacing its surge in dollar buying with more printing of money employed to buy back its own interest-bearing government debt with cash.
The attention being paid to exchange rates and to utterances about them by finance ministers and central bankers is misplaced.
AEI Online
February 1, 2004
The current economic cycle is fundamentally benign, but if policymakers fail to recognize it as such and ignore falling prices because output growth is strong, a global recession could occur.
AEI Online
January 1, 2004
As we move into 2004, 2003 may really start to look like it was as good as it gets.
The policy stimulants administered in very large doses to the U.S. economy at midyear are wearing off fast.
AEI Online
November 1, 2003
A move toward global reflation to absorb excess capacity would be a positive-sum game.
AEI Online
October 1, 2003
U.S. demand growth is accelerating to a level that will probably produce a third-quarter annualized GDP growth rate above 5 percent.
AEI Online
September 1, 2003
The Japanese economy and the Japanese stock market are, by some measures, flashing recovery signals even more strongly than their American counterparts.
AEI Online
August 1, 2003
A strengthening dollar aided by continued dollar purchasing by Asian central banks represents another headwind for the U.S. economy to overcome.
By emphasizing deflation avoidance, the Federal Reserveoffers an assurance to markets that short-term rates will remain low--or lower--for some time.
U.S. policymakers are breaking new ground with important reflationary measures to move the economy onto a path of sustainable recovery.
Wall Street Journal
May 22, 2003
In the short run, tax cuts at the federal level will be necessary to offset sharp tax increases at the state and local level.
By the end of this year we shall see the Fed targeting higher inflation after having been unable to avoid a U.S. double-dip recession that precipitates a global recession.
The damage of prolonged exogenous forces is already great enough to justify a rapid move to additional stimulus on both the monetary and fiscal fronts, both in the United States and abroad.
Elimination of the double taxation of dividends would be an excellent start down the road to full elimination of the tax on corporate income and a movement toward an integrated tax system where corporate income is imputed to its ultimate owners—households—and taxed once at that level at the same rate that all income is taxed.
Stimulative tax rate cuts are needed now.
AEI Online
February 1, 2003
Tax cuts should be larger, not smaller, in view of the weakening economy.
AEI Online
January 1, 2003
The rise in the price of gold serves as a sign that many investors perceive that reflation efforts have not been successful and will have to be intensified.
AEI Online
December 1, 2002
Fears of deflation and lower growth in the United States are becoming more intense.
AEI Online
November 1, 2002
The notion that a central bank can mitigate the pain of business cycles and avoid depressions, an article of faith especially during the "Greenspan" era, is both untrue and counterproductive.
AEI Online
October 1, 2002
The Fed's role in creating preconditions for a stock market bubble was, at most, peripheral and that the Fed did undertake to cool an overheating economy in 1999.
AEI Online
September 1, 2002
A pervasive idea that has misled American households attempting to preserve and enhance wealth is the notion that stocks always yield better returns than bonds or other assets.
Financial Times
August 12, 2002
If U.S. spending stalls and a still weaker dollar exports more deflation, how is global recession in a world of excess capacity to be avoided?
AEI Online
August 1, 2002
The mood of investors is certainly saturnine, that is, gloomy, and, given the behavior of stock prices in past post-bubble periods, it is probably rational for investors to be gloomy.
Australian Financial Review
July 22, 2002
Japan's policymakers have found a dangerous way to avoid confronting the nation's decade-old financial and economic crisis.
The U.S. economy may need a weaker dollar to drive a sustainable recovery.
The Wall Street Journal
May 9, 2002
Last week, for the first time in more than a decade, a U.S. Treasury secretary was forced to testify on exchange-rate policy before the Senate.
Since 2000 we have seen a sharp drop in investment spending, but no persistent slowdown in consumption.
Now we have economic recovery instead of recession.
Nightly Business Report
March 21, 2002
Economic change for the better has todo with a powerful boost from extra government spending, an idea Keynes pioneered, and from tax rate cuts, an idea pioneered by Ronald Reagan.
The policy tuners at the helm of the American economy have become so adept at managing systemic risk that the last two potential disasters to hit the economy have been turned into triumphs.
AEI Online
February 1, 2002
The idea that tax increases are good for the economy is to sound economic principles what bloodletting and leeches are to sound medicine--a dangerous and discredited notion.
AEI Online
January 1, 2002
During 2001, Japan passed from a prolonged and serious recession into outright depression.
AEI Online
December 1, 2001
Help needed to overcome the depressing effects on demand arising from an intensifying synchronous global recession and elevated uncertainty created by terrorist attacks.
AEI Online
November 2, 2001
Probable outcome will be a sharp market sell-off either later this year or early next year as earnings disappointments and lower growth exceed the most negative of current forecasts.
AEI Online
October 1, 2001
The first order of business is to reduce the uncertainty and fear that follow naturally from the horrifying images of September 11 and its aftermath.
AEI Online
September 1, 2001
U.S. productivity growth and job creation still provide ample room for U.S. growth rates above those of most industrial nations.
AEI Online
August 1, 2001
It is time for economists to quit touting a second-half recovery.
Wall Street Journal
July 11, 2001
The second-half economic recovery touted by analysts and forecasters is a myth; the second half is here and the only things falling are interest rates.
Fed could use help from foreign central banks, which might benefitask why their currencies keep falling against the dollar while they look upon the U.S. central bank as "trigger happy."
If Japan combines a reflationary monetary policy,rapid deregulation, restructuring of its domestic sector and an attendant surge of investment will promote the flow of capital.
Let us hope that picture changes rapidly if the U.S. consumer, exhausted by losses in the stock market, rising debt, and a sharp rise in tax burdens, decides to stop spending.
The Weekly Standard
April 16, 2001
There have been two instances in the past century in which a stock market collapse followed an investment-led boom and both times, depression resulted.
Monetary policy is complacent in view of the dangers facing the U.S. economy, but deductions in interest rates cannot eliminate the recession, they can cushion it.
We must confront nonchalance on the part of banks, starting with Japan, moving on to Europe, and finally to a bout of market-driven complacency in the U.S.
AEI Online
February 1, 2001
Federal Reserve must take care not to cling too hard to a fear of inflation.
AEI Online
January 1, 2001
The tax rate cuts that President-elect Bush proposed during the campaign are going to become more and more popular as the economy weakens.
Los Angeles Times
December 3, 2000
The most important question about the outlook for the U.S. and global economies is this: If the U.S. stock market ends the year at or below current levels, what would that imply for investment and consumption behavior next year?
AEI Online
December 1, 2000
The possibility of a profits recession leading to an economic recession creates a "double or nothing" situation for equity investors.
AEI Online
November 1, 2000
The U.S. stock market bubble is bursting--starting with the Internet bubble and continuing with the information technology communicationssector bubble.
AEI Online
October 1, 2000
If oil pricesstay at $35 a barrel, the picture for global growth and markets gets ugly.
Financial Times
September 13, 2000
Aclose look at the reasons behind the current global configuration of trade and capital flows suggests that the frightening combination of a drop in the flow of investments into the US and an attendant sharp drop in the dollar is unlikely to happen.
AEI Online
September 1, 2000
There is no theoretical or empirical support for the enduring notion that either lower budget deficits or surpluses that lead to government debt reduction are beneficial to the economy.
The Orlando Sentinel
August 20, 2000
More spending will increase employment and output and thereby will help to arrest the accelerating deflation in Japan.
AEI Online
August 1, 2000
The important thing to remember about this year’s slowdown and the likely pickup during the second half of the year is that existing inflation pressures will intensify, in contrast to previous years.
The key to understanding the fundamental problem facing the Japanese economy can be found in the Keynesian notion of the paradox of thrift.
While financial markets are pricing a soft landing for the U.S. economy, the economic data appearing this spring contain the seeds of a hard landing.
Like most “too much, too soon” events, the wealth explosion, while exhilarating, has upset the balance of the economy.
Going forward, a full recovery of the Japanese economy might be most helped by the political turmoil that would follow the defeat of the economically inept Liberal Democratic Party.
The policy instruments that the Federal Reserve uses to maintain balanced growth are far better suited to adjusting demand growth than to adjusting supply growth.
AEI Online
February 1, 2000
While the future may bring significant volatility in financial markets, the real economic health of the U.S. economy is far better now than at any time in the past century.
AEI Online
January 1, 2000
Everyone expects stocks to keep going up, and so wants to own them until they don’t go up any more; when they don’t go up any more, the bubble bursts.
AEI Online
December 1, 1999
The main contribution of Clintonomics was to do relatively little harm to the favorable economic environment it inherited.
AEI Online
November 1, 1999
Japanese economy could slip back into negative growth and deflation, which would prompt an easing of monetary policy, faster money growth, and inflation targeting.
AEI Online
October 1, 1999
Fed should keep inflation low by responding to the recent modest uptick in inflation with appropriate modest tightening.
House Ways and Means Committee
September 29, 1999
John H. Makin's testimony before the Ways and Means Committe on September 29, 1999.
AEI Online
September 1, 1999
If the Fed wants to bring the underlying growth rate down by a percentage point, from around 4 percent to 2.5 to 3 percent, 150 basis points of short-term rate increases will be required.
United States Trade Deficit Review Commission
August 19, 1999
Testimonyto the Trade Deficit Review Commission byJohn H. Makin.
AEI Online
August 1, 1999
Either markets put interest rates up too high for the stock market to bear, or central banks do.
As bond yields have begun to move higher, the U.S. stock market has taken note and retreat ed about 4 percent from the highs achieved in April.
The Fed is returning to its role as a U.S. central bank after nearly two years as the world’s central bank.
The merits of fixed versus flexible exchange rates and whether the recent shift in U.S. and other official views on exchange rate regimes is appropriate.
In a few years the Japanese economy could be modernized and internationalized to include world-class banks and producers, in both the domestic and the international sectors.
The dollar peg made borrowing in the local currencies of Asia and Latin America too cheap, and the resulting excess capacity made those currencies overvalued, and the currency pegs collapsed.
G-7must distinguish between the desirability of seeking price-level stability in a world of excess demand and the dangers of pursuing exchange rate rigidity in a world of excess supply.
AEI Online
February 1, 1999
Financial markets will be disappointed if the current euphoria is predicated on yet another Fed easing in response to anything other than a recession in the United States.
AEI Online
January 1, 1999
Interesting aspect about central banks is the inverse relationship between the proactive reflationary measures undertaken and the degree of deflation confronting them.
AEI Online
December 1, 1998
Based on the market reaction to the Fed’s two easings, America’s Golden Age returned almost instantly,but this time the markets’ sunny projections may be very mistaken.
Sunday Times (London)
November 29, 1998
The West may have to tolerate more imports but that is better than leaving Tokyo to sink.
AEI Online
November 1, 1998
If everything goes just right--which is improbable--we may see signs of an economic recovery by the dawn of the new millennium.
AEI Online
October 1, 1998
The causes of this crisis can be traced to sources distinctly inconsistent with free markets and unfettered global capital flows in both directions.
AEI Online
September 1, 1998
There is a compelling need to learn the difference between the dangers of currency devaluation in an inflationary world and the benefits of currency devaluation in a deflationary world.
AEI Online
August 1, 1998
Weak Asian economies preclude a preemptive monetary tightening while U.S. wage pressures preclude a preemptive easing.
After a lengthy exercise in denial--which only postponed necessary measures to repair the badly damaged banking system--in June 1998 Japan succumbed to the crisis environment in Asia.
The party for the American Golden Age can end in two ways: the economy overheats,or overinvestment puts too much capacity in place and investment and earnings collapse.
Asia’s crisis is a reflection of massive excess capacity and the accompanying deflationary pressure.
The United States government has offered ample advice to the Japanese government on ways to end its economic and financial crises.
The U.S. economy and European economies, for that matter, will probably experience slowing growth as we move further into 1998.
Can the Federal Reserve maintain the balancing act the economy needs?
AEI Online
February 1, 1998
While it is encouraging that the United States and the IMF are well past the denial phase in Asia, it is too soon to declare that the Asian crisis is over.
AEI Online
January 1, 1998
Asia's most fundamental problem is the existence of too much productive capacity already in place.
AEI Online
December 1, 1997
Asia's financial institutions need to learn to operate with less government direction and coddling, not more.
AEI Online
November 1, 1997
Time for dollar appreciation to relieve some excess capacity and to slow some of the investment growth that will eventually become excessive in the United States.
Barron's
October 27, 1997
AEI Online
October 1, 1997
If Asian efforts to export deflation through currency depreciation and export promotion are pursued aggressively, protectionist pressure within Asia and the Western Hemisphere will rise.
AEI Online
September 1, 1997
Potential consequences of Asian deflation for financial markets are far greater than a resumption of U.S. growth or a modest increase in interest rates by the German Bundesbank.
AEI Online
August 1, 1997
Like most investment-led recoveries, the limits for the expansion of the U.S. economy will probably come with a temporary exhaustion of investment opportunities.
If Europe freezes its exchange rates together, European monetary union will not survive for very long without resorting to a highly counterproductive increase in trade protection.
In a U.S. expansion when pressures on productive capacity and on credit markets to finance continued capacity expansion are high, the implied rise in interest rates will be large.
Can the Fedengineer yet another soft landing to bring demand growth back into line with sustainable supply growth so that inflation does not accelerate?
With or without the encouragement of Rubin and his G-7 colleagues, the dollar will continue to rise.
AEI Online
February 1, 1997
The Federal Reserve now faces the delicate task of reminding investors of that reality without causing them to panic.
AEI Online
January 1, 1997
Central bankers and government officials may be less inclined to speculate about appropriate levels of equity markets, interest rates, or exchange rates.
AEI Online
December 1, 1996
Japan has taken the first step toward economic recovery by demonstrating that massive Keynesian public works projects can produce only temporary, faster demand growth.
AEI Online
November 1, 1996
In the second half of 1996, U.S. interest rates are being held down by fortuitous (from the standpoint of the United States) economic slowdowns in Japan and especially in Europe.
AEI Online
October 1, 1996
Against the backdrop of global disinflation, widespread hesitancy about the appropriate next step for monetary policy in most countries is unsurprising.
AEI Online
September 1, 1996
John H. Makin analyzes the outlook for long-run growth as well asthe importance of balancing the budget and national saving.
AEI Online
August 1, 1996
August is the month when the world's movers and shakers, in search of a little peace and quiet, hope that nothing big will happen. Of course, for precisely that reason, major events in the political and the financial world often do occur in August.
Even supply-side, investment-led recoveries eventually come to an end either because of some accident or because of the collective fear of policymakers and investors that the higher equity prices rise, the further they must eventually fall.
The United States may have to get used to a return to the preeminent strength of the U.S. economy in a global economic setting that characterized the Bretton Woods system during the 1960s.
Since February, higher interest rates, higher energy and grain prices, and a stagnant stock market have raised questions about the happy picture of the American economy.
The fear of inflation is imparting a deflationary bias to the global economy that could result in a worldwide recession within a year.
An extended period of moderate growth, neither too fast to excite inflation pressures nor too slow to threaten profits, has supported both the stock and bond markets.
AEI Online
February 1, 1996
The outlook for the U.S. economy, hitherto sunny with few clouds, has turned somewhat ambiguous.
AEI Online
January 1, 1996
There are similarities and important differences between the behavior of the stock market and underlying economic performance during the 1990s and the 1920s.
AEI Online
December 1, 1995
During the third quarter the U.S. economy grew at seven times the underlying inflation rate.
Wall Street Journal
November 15, 1995
AEI Online
November 1, 1995
The U.S. economy always seems to surprise forecasters in the fourth quarter.
AEI Online
October 1, 1995
Aside from geopolitical shocks, such as the August 1914 start of World War I and the August 1961 erection of the Berlin Wall, financial shocks have appeared in the middle of August.
AEI Online
September 1, 1995
On August 15 the world's three largest central banks purchased more than $3 billion of an already resurgent dollar and sent its value up by more than 3 percent.
AEI Online
August 1, 1995
The response by other central banks and by financial markets to the Fed's modest cut of twenty-five basis points to the federal funds rate surprised Greenspan more than anyone else.
The United States is heading for negative economic growth during the second quarter.
Two useful reminders: growth does not simply continue uninterrupted along a smooth upward path, and inflation will not always remain quiescent.
Despite the consternation about the collapse of the dollar against the deutsche mark and the yen, 1995 has so far emerged as a golden age for the U.S. economy and financial markets.
Slippage from high yields of 8.0 percent takes us back to levels when the dollar was firm and market players expected the U.S. economy to slow during the second half of 1994.
Financial markets have spent the first six weeks of 1995 celebrating a "soft landing."
AEI Online
February 1, 1995
It is clear from events at the end of 1994 that there is too little global saving to go around.
AEI Online
January 1, 1995
The U.S. economy has had a magnificent year, with growth nearly a third higher and inflation just a bit lower than had been expected last January
Wall Street Journal
May 11, 1994
Barron's
February 7, 1994
International Economy
November 1, 1993
Wall Street Journal
February 8, 1993
Senate Finance Subcommittee on Deficits, Debt Management and International Debt
June 5, 1992
Wall Street Journal
March 10, 1992
Los Angeles Times
October 8, 1991
Los Angeles Times
April 3, 1991
The Washington Times
November 7, 1989
Review of Economics and Statistics
August 1, 1989
House Ways and Means Committee
April 19, 1989