Living with resource shortages

April 15, 2008

Despite all the talk about peak oil these days, you don’t get much of an impression that people are very concerned about rising fuel prices.

Fuel hungry SUVs still seem to be popular with New Zealand motorists, and although the Police say some drivers are slowing down to say fuel, I haven’t really noticed it much myself. Most people still seem to drive as they usually do – at the speed limit when the Police are around, and 10-20 km above the speed limit when the coast is clear.

There also seems to be a swift from manual to automatic cars, which isn’t doing much for fuel conservation as many auto cars are only 4 speeds. My parents recently purchased a near-new 2 litre 4-speed station wagon, which, much to their disappointment, actually uses more gas than the 11-year-old 2.8 litre manual wagon which it replaced.

Cars with permanent 4WD also have lousy fuel economy, yet this isn’t putting people off buying them for that once a year trip to the ski fields. The European trend towards diesel cars hasn’t really taken off here either, despite the fact that some of the newer diesels out-perform hybrids cars in terms of overall fuel economy.

Mind you, drivers aren’t getting much help from the motor industry. Many of the mileage figures cited in newspaper advertisments are a long way off the mark. In city traffic, some SUVs actually have 50 percent worse fuel economy than on the open road, and most mileage figures are based on open road driving conditions.

With fuel prices likely to rise significantly in the next 5-10 years, people could be making a big financial mistake in not buying a fuel efficient car, particularly when you also factor in rising food prices, surging electricity bills, and continuing high interest rates.


Taking Western agriculture for granted

April 1, 2008

The recent surge in global food prices shows how important the “bread baskets” of western nations like the U.S, Canada are to the global food supply, and that they shouldn’t be taken for granted.

The US is the world’s largest grain exporter, and many countries such as Egypt are heavily dependent on US grain imports. Global grain production actually peaked about 1995, yet many developing countries haven’t been doing much to try and reduce their dependence on imported grain.

Like oil, grain seems to be something which most nations, and their neo-liberal advisors, seem to take for granted.

However, rather than criticising countries like Egypt for becoming over-dependent on food imports, most commentators seem to be blaming US and European farmers for switching from the production of food grain to the production of grain for bio-fuels.

While it’s right to question whether good quality agricultural land should be used to grow crops like corn and rapeseed for bio-fuels, It seems a little arrogant to automatically assert that the primary role of western agriculture is to provide cheap grain for developing countries that refuse to recognise their own overpopulation/underproduction problems.

For one thing, high food prices aren’t necessarily bad news for most developing countries. High food and fuel prices give small scale third world farmers, who rely mostly on cheap labour costs, the chance to compete with large scale western agribusiness which is heavily dependent on petroleum imports for fuel and fertilizer. Central Africa, South East Asia and South America may actually benefit form rising food prices. It’s mainly the arid countries, in Eastern Africa and the Middle East which have to worry.

For another thing, indebted western countries, with strong agricultural sectors, need reasonably high food prices to help pay for imports of manufactured goods from countries like China and costly petroleum imports from the Middle East.

Ultimately, sovereign states have a right to do what they think is best for their own economic security and if that includes giving bio-fuels a fair trial, that that’s their business. (Admittedly, in the US case this sort of investment should have started 5 years ago, using the money subsequently wasted on the Iraq invasion, but we can’t turn back the clock now).

Furthermore, the technology used in producing ethanol from corn and rapeseed may possibly be adapted to producing “second generation” bio-fuel from other plants like pine trees which can be grown on land unsuitable for food crops. At this point in time no one really knows what the potential of bio-fuels are, yet many people are already declaring them dead in the water.

Instead of being seen as another example of “western greed,” the current surge in food prices should be taken as a timely warning by developing countries and their first world advisors that they need to take a more serious attitude to the issues of food production and population control.