A few thoughts on overpopulation and increasing food prices

April 30, 2008

With cries of food shortages now being heard in many third world countries, the West is likely to be expected to once again step in with food aid to ameliorate the crisis. But this could well result in making the situation worse.

While the recent surge in commodity prices may spell trouble for the millions of third world poor living in overcrowded cities, it’s actually good news for many third world farmers, who form the backbone of the economy in most developing countries. Subsequently, if the West responds by aiding third world countries with food aid, as it has done in the past, it may well drive down the price of locally produced grain and impoverish local farmers.

This is why population control is so essential in many developing countries. Most poor countries have a large non-production population which serves as both a break on development, and a major headache for cash-strapped third world governments trying to establish basic infrastructure.

In the past, nature had a rather brutal, but effective means of getting rid of surplus humans and making room for new development – famine. In a particularly dramatic example, a recent international genetics project claims modern humans almost became extinct 70,000 years ago (“When humans came closest to extinction,” The Press, Saturday, April 26).

According to the Genographic Project, the human population crashed from around 10,000 – 100,000 people to just 2000, following ice age related climate change which made Africa cooler and drier. However, the Project’s director, Spencer Wells, says this population crisis ultimately became a major stimulus for human development:

“A shift in culture began. People began making better hunting tools they needed to survive the drought. Art makes its appearance. There is abstract thought.”

Another such stimulus, occurred in Europe during the 14th Century, following massive depopulation caused by the Black Death. With a sudden and profound labour shortage, workers wages increased, feudalism began to breakdown and the development and uptake of labour saving technology, such as horse-drawn ploughs and water mills began in earnest. This labour-shortage-fueled technology stimulus went on to became a major factor in the technological supremacy of Europe and its colonies from 1500 through to the present day.

It’s seems that population control plays a vital role in human development, but how then can human numbers be controlled without massive human suffering?

Many liberals argue that people will naturally have fewer children as they become more educated and affluent. But that is putting the cart before the horse. People can’t become more affluent if they are too numerous to be able to command increasing wages for their labour, or authorities are unwilling or unable to educate them.

The most humane option, and one which is in the best interests of rich and poor countries, seems to be managed population control through such measures as family planning, contraceptives, and economic incentives. Hopefully the end of the Bush presidency this year will signal a resurgence of interest in funding for population control programmes.

1 Comment | Demography, Economic inequality, Environmental issues | Permalink
Posted by mikecourtman

Counting the cost of population growth

April 24, 2008

With global food prices on the rise, we have yet another reminder to reconsider whether immigration-fueled population growth is really a good idea.

In an article on the News with Views website, American talk radio pundit Frosty Woolridge points out some of the numerous negative effects of large scale legal and illegal immigration into the United States:

“What does growth really bring to you and me? Yes, it creates a few ‘rich’ people. However, Bartlett said, “It brings more homeless, more unemployed, more people living in poverty, more traffic congestion, higher parking fees, more school crowding, more unhappy neighborhoods, more expensive government, more and higher taxes, more fiscal problems for the state, more air and water pollution, higher utility costs, diminished democracy, crowded highways, growing costs of infrastructure maintenance, higher food costs and more destruction of the environment.”

You will encounter a few more: overloaded campgrounds, beaches, ski resorts, more litter, higher gas costs, greater housing costs, water shortages and loss of choices and personal freedom. “

In my view this list constitutes a pretty powerful argument in favour of immigration restrictionism. Just about all of these trends can be applied to most other western countries including New Zealand.

About the only negative impact which doesn’t really apply to New Zealand is immigration-based unemployment. Fortunately, this country, unlike the US, doesn’t have a high level of unskilled immigration at present, so we don’t have quite the same problem with immigrants taking jobs away from unskilled native workers. Hence the unemployment rate is only about 3-4 percent, which is one of the lowest in the OECD.

Other than actually bite the bullet and reduce immigration, there is little governments can do to shield citizens from the impact of expansive immigration. For example, the Labour government has attempted to reduce poverty by reintroducing family benefits, but any benefits from increased government spending has largely been canceled out by the increasing cost of housing, food and utilities.

1 Comment | Demography, Environmental issues, Immigration | Permalink
Posted by mikecourtman

Western recruitment agencies undermining health care in the third world

April 21, 2008

Last week the Press had a couple of articles about Filipino nurses working as low paid care workers in Christchurch. According to the Press, trained Filipinos nurses are paying large sums of money to recruitment agencies to secure jobs in the city’s hospitals, only to end up in working in nursing homes.

To register as nurses in New Zealand they first have to pass an International English Language Test examination, which is proving to be a major stumbling block for many applicants. Since the Philippines, like most developing countries, has a looming shortage of doctors and nurses, which is arguably more serious than ours, it seems a waste of human potential for them to be working as low paid, semi-skilled workers in a western country rather than as skilled nurses in their home country, where they know the local language and customs.

Care work is also one of the lowest paid professions in the country, with most workers getting paid slightly above the minimum wage of $12 per hour. Before trying to strip the developing world of it’s medical staff, it might be an idea to try and offer slightly better work conditions for native workers.

In a sign of the times, the article also revealed that Filipinos were the largest group of net migrants from Asia last year, with 6143 immigrants, up from 5065 the previous year.

1 Comment | Health, Immigration, Labour shortages | Permalink
Posted by mikecourtman

Quote of the week

April 20, 2008

From a recent Fred Reed post on those borders:

“To grasp American immigration policy, to the extent that it can be grasped, one need only remember that the United States forbids smoking while subsidizing tobacco growers. “

1 Comment | Immigration | Permalink
Posted by mikecourtman

Double standards from TVNZ

April 19, 2008

Over the last few weeks the popular UK documentary series Ross Kemp on Gangs has been screening on New Zealand TV and I’ve found it quite eye opening.

For example, I knew Jamaica had quite a high crime rate, but I had no idea that the nation’s capital, Kingston is arguably the most violent city in the world (for the size of its population).

Unfortunately though, the episode on gangs and football violence in Poland, was a bit disappointing. In the show Kemp interviews a neo-Nazi skinhead, who doesn’t speak any English, about his about his political views and reasons for engaging in soccer violence. Naturally, the youth doesn’t have many intelligent things to say, and Kemp looks suitably disgusted by his predictable opinions about Jews and other races. Kemp also fails to ask the most obvious question, and the first one I would have asked – “why do you like a guy like Hitler, who killed so many Polish people? “

Anyway, Kemp then turns up at a football match where a neo-Nazi gang is clashing with a rival non-Nazi nationalist gang, and very briefly interviews an English-speaking non- Nazi nationalist whose face is concealed by a bandana. The young gang member, who appears more intelligent that the neo-Nazi interviewed earlier, then states that the two groups often fight each other after matches, but have significantly different ideologies

Now to my mind, it would have been interesting to interview one of these non-Nazi nationalist gang members, and find out what their views were, and why they disliked the neo-Nazi skinheads, particularly since the former appeared more typical of the average Polish gang member. Unfortunately though, the programme appears to be more about creating shock value than looking into the attitudes and habits of the typical gang member and what makes them tick.

Certainly one episode of the series has been viewed a little too shocking for local audiences by Television New Zealand. On Radio Live this week Michael Laws said TVNZ has decided not to play an episode about the New Zealand Mongrel Mob.

It seems it’s ok to look at other country’s gang problems in a slightly sensationalised way, but politically correct TVNZ isn’t keen on the same treatment for New Zealand’s indigenous underclass.

Leave a Comment » | Media, crime, the underclass | Permalink
Posted by mikecourtman

Living with resource shortages

April 15, 2008

Despite all the talk about peak oil these days, you don’t get much of an impression that people are very concerned about rising fuel prices.

Fuel hungry SUVs still seem to be popular with New Zealand motorists, and although the Police say some drivers are slowing down to say fuel, I haven’t really noticed it much myself. Most people still seem to drive as they usually do – at the speed limit when the Police are around, and 10-20 km above the speed limit when the coast is clear.

There also seems to be a swift from manual to automatic cars, which isn’t doing much for fuel conservation as many auto cars are only 4 speeds. My parents recently purchased a near-new 2 litre 4-speed station wagon, which, much to their disappointment, actually uses more gas than the 11-year-old 2.8 litre manual wagon which it replaced.

Cars with permanent 4WD also have lousy fuel economy, yet this isn’t putting people off buying them for that once a year trip to the ski fields. The European trend towards diesel cars hasn’t really taken off here either, despite the fact that some of the newer diesels out-perform hybrids cars in terms of overall fuel economy.

Mind you, drivers aren’t getting much help from the motor industry. Many of the mileage figures cited in newspaper advertisments are a long way off the mark. In city traffic, some SUVs actually have 50 percent worse fuel economy than on the open road, and most mileage figures are based on open road driving conditions.

With fuel prices likely to rise significantly in the next 5-10 years, people could be making a big financial mistake in not buying a fuel efficient car, particularly when you also factor in rising food prices, surging electricity bills, and continuing high interest rates.

3 Comments | Fuel prices, Motoring, Resources | Permalink
Posted by mikecourtman

Ducking demographic problems

April 12, 2008

Amid the recent criticisms of New Zealand First for questioning Asian immigration, liberal political pundits have overlooked the fact that Statistics New Zealand is predicting the population of NZ will grow to over five and half million by 2026 (that’s about what you get if you add up their predictions for the country’s major ethnic groups).

Such a population increase will mean that the country will have to take a whole new approach to power supply and infrastructure development.

New Zealand, with just over million citizens is one of the few countries in the world that obtains almost all its electricity needs from hydroelectric power stations. This has been a cornerstone in the country’s “clean green” anti-nuclear image that’s been promoted by the Labour Party.

However, the nation is now at a crossroads. Nearly all the best sites for hydroelectric power generation have already been developed and if the population increases by the amount predicted by Statistics NZ, then Nuclear or Coal power will become essential. Wind power, while a useful supplement to other forms of energy, just doesn’t produce enough power on a consistent basis to provide for a population increase of this magnitude.

Similarly, big investments will have to be have to made in the countries transport infrastructure. The many roads and bridges built between the 1930s and 1960s, are now beginning to deteriorate under increased traffic, and further population growth will mean that many will have to be either rebuilt completely or expanded to accommodate greater traffic volumes.

At present, there are no motorways linking any of the country’s main cities, and if the population increases by over a million it will become essential to put in dual carriageways on the busiest routes, such as the infamous road between Auckland and Hamilton. This will consume a huge amount of public spending and put an end the Greens’ hopes of running down the roading budget and putting more money into public transport.

It’s fast getting to stage where the country’s so called environmentalists (which now apparently includes the National Party) will have to decide whether they should continue to follow a liberal approach, in favour of expansive immigration and a utopian faith in alternative energy and public transport, or a hard-headed conservative approach, which puts limits on immigration as well as economic excesses.

Leave a Comment » | Demography, Environmental issues | Permalink
Posted by mikecourtman

National MPs on labour shortages

April 10, 2008

According to pro-National blogger David Farrar, today’s National Party bases its policies on a combination of liberalism and conservatism, however after reading political commentaries by National MPs over the last few years, I’d say liberalism usually trumps conservatism.

For example in a North Canterbury community newspaper last week, Kaikoura representative Colin King criticises the government for not providing enough overseas workers for the viticulture industry. The opinion piece, from the Hurunui News (not online) is entitled “focus on employing people based on ability, not nationality.”

Mr King argues that local vineyards are having problems finding enough suitable workers under the goverment’s Recognised Seasonal Employer Scheme for Pacific Island guest workers, and that visas should be extended for experienced seasonal workers form other countries.

However, as an elected MP, Mr King, and his fellow National MPs, don’t just have to take into account the interests of local employers, but also local citizens, who are likely to hold more conservative views on immigration.

The question, I would ask, as no doubt would many other people of a conservative disposition, is where do these experienced workers from other countries come from, ie, which countries. Do they come from relatively developed, pro-western countries, and are they likely to be a future burden to New Zealand taxpayers if they overstay? Since work on grape-vines is unskilled work, Mr King has things exactly backed to front. It’s nationality, rather than ability, that is of most concern to local citizens.

If the National Party really is based on a combination of liberalism and conservatism, then I would expect more debate about such matters, rather than blind allegiance to an ethnically neutral, politically naive, pro-business stance on immigration and labour matters.

In a previous comments thread I argued that a reasonable compromise might be to extend visas for workers from developed western countries, as well as those from pro-western middle income countries, such as Argentina, Poland, Uruguay and the Baltic States, while excluding workers from poor non-western countries such as Indonesia and China.

Such a policy would go a reasonable way to help satisfy the current labour need, while reducing the risk of inviting in a potentially hostile underclass, or driving down wages for those local workers and backpackers who are willing to take up seasonal labour jobs.

Leave a Comment » | Uncategorized | Permalink
Posted by mikecourtman

Cheap imports not so cheap

April 9, 2008

Rent, bills, services, fuel and medical bills may be steadily rising for the western consumer, but there’s aways ever cheapening Asian goods to look forward to isn’t there?

Well maybe not for much longer.

The question now is whether China will revalue its currency to compensate for inflation.

Leave a Comment » | China, Cost of living, NZ economy | Permalink
Posted by mikecourtman

Lets play bash the populist

April 7, 2008

Following New Zealand First deputy leader Peter Brown’s comments about the latest figures on Asian immigration, the Press has come out with the usual self-righteous cliches that the mainstream media likes to use to confirm its adherence to fashionable middle-class views.

What’s particularly depressing about this is that the Press isn’t a dogmatically liberal paper by New Zealand standards. Like CNN with Lou Dobbs, the Press at least manages to allow for some unfashionable views by publishing populist and traditionalist letters to the editor on a fairly regular basis. By contrast, I can tell you from personal experience that the type of material I publish in this blog wouldn’t stand much of chance of getting into the Sunday Star Times or Dominion (the later being NZ’s equivalent of the LA Times).

The Press’s official editorial piece on the topic, entitled “Contribution, not colour, is the best judge of a migrant” (Saturday, April 5 not online) starts reasonably, but soon gets sanctimonious:

“Playing the race card has become something of an election year ritual for New Zealand First. So much so that the only uncertainties this year were when the card would be produced and which NZ first MP would deal it. These questions were answered this weak when the party’s deputy leader, Peter Brown, cited a Statistics New Zealand forecast that Asians would outnumber Maori by 2006 because of short-sighted immigration policies. This was anathema to Brown, who argued that Asian migrants would not integrate into New Zealand society and that this would create division, friction and resentment. Not only are Brown’s views plain wrong, but the majority of voters will not be duped by this cynical tactic on polling day.”

Correct me if I’m wrong here, but hasn’t periodic immigration restrictionism had a pretty good track record of hastening rather than blocking integration ( as far as is practical when immigrants are from totally alien cultures). One reason why the grime predictions in Enoch Powell’s famous “rivers of blood speech” didn’t happen was because the UK government wisely decided to reduce immigration from Britain’s former non-white colonies during the late 60s and early 1970s.

In New Zealand, the relatively high unemployment rate among East Asian immigrants is finally starting to sort itself out precisely because Labour’s tougher English language requirements have lowered East Asian immigration in the last few years, thereby reducing tensions with established immigrants and giving employers time to absorb the labour influx.

You also have to wonder why the Press feels the need to take such a strident line against Brown if it believes his populist stance is unlikely to have much influence on voters anyway.

The Press also suggests Brown has no right to a view on Asian immigration because he is an immigrant, and that it is “richly ironic” that he should be questioning Asian immigration. I’m sorry but, I don’t get the irony. Immigrants are entitled to have an opinion on immigration just like everyone else. Many people have come to New Zealand precisely because it’s a lightly populated country which has traditionally been cautious about immigration. What’s “richly ironic” is that the Press seems to advocating colour blindness on the one hand (people from all cultures should be able should be able to come) , and snobbish nativism on the other (only native whites and indigenous Maori’s should get to debate immigration policy).

Then of course there’s the further irony that it’s a British immigrant who is being attacked for questioning non-western immigration, in what is arguably the most British country outside Britain.

While the writer of the article does make a point that NZ first has tended to exaggerate Asian crime levels, and should be precise when talking about immigrant groups, they drop another howler in talking about immigration and education by citing an Afghan refugee as a “prime recent example” of a high achieving Asian student. Now I’ve got nothing against giving credit where credit’s due, East Asian students in western countries do have an excellent academic record, but Afghans? I’m sorry but this isn’t a “prime example,” of academic success, it’s a very atypical one. According to the field of psychometrics, East Asians have an average IQ of 105, Afghans a likely average IQ of about 83.

If the Press can’t recognise that Afghan and East Asian levels of academic achievement are wildly different, then you have to question whether the paper should be assessing the relative contributions of perspective migrant groups.

Leave a Comment » | Immigration, NZ first, Political correctness, Populism, nz politics | Permalink
Posted by mikecourtman

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