Penny Herscher

Penny Herscher

Posted March 6, 2009 | 01:06 PM (EST)

Evidence the U.S. Layoffs Trend Has Peaked

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There's a turn in the U.S. employment market happening. There's evidence that the number of layoff announcements and reported layoff events has started to drop. This does not mean the number of job losses will drop yet since announcements precede the actual elimination of jobs, but it is a leading indicator of the turn in the employment market.

Here's the monthly data for the last few months - and you can see the charts and data behind it here.

Number of unique web stories on announced layoffs or reported layoff events in the U.S.
October 08: 754
November 08: 1799
December 08: 2218
January 09: 3268
February 09: 2161

For the last few months it has seemed as if the bad news on layoff announcements just kept growing and as I watched the web news flow on U.S. Layoffs specifically - as you can do too both in the free FirstRain newsletter Eye on the Storm - or on the front page of firstrain.com - it has been like watching a train wreck every day.

But I've also been watching the statistics to look for a turnaround in the trend - and it's started. There is no way to know if this is the turn or a turn in the trend but it is a compelling change in the data and could be a leading indicator of a change in the way companies are dealing with the crisis.

The weekly data (see it here) shows that the number of layoff announcements and reported events climbed through to the end of November - dropped back for the holidays - and then went back into a steep climb with the worst week being the week following the inauguration. This is because between October and January companies realized things were getting very bad very quickly and many acted decisively to manage their businesses in the face of the economic crisis - leading to the horrible job loss statistics we've been seeing. The report published by Watson Wyatt last week also corroborates that many companies have made the sweeping deep cuts and the majority are now focusing are local management measures such as salary freezes and cutting 401(k) contributions to further manage costs.

Note: The FirstRain data is a count of unique articles on the web about a reported layoff event or the announcement of a planned or actual layoff - it's important to count just the original stories (we use technology to do this) because stories get copied, repeated and changed as they ripple through the web.

There's a turn in the U.S. employment market happening. There's evidence that the number of layoff announcements and reported layoff events has started to drop. This does not mean the number of job lo...
There's a turn in the U.S. employment market happening. There's evidence that the number of layoff announcements and reported layoff events has started to drop. This does not mean the number of job lo...
 
 

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- New texastrixie See Profile I'm a Fan of texastrixie permalink

The ANNOUNCED (as in big companies) layoffs may be tapering off (and I really don't even believe this), but we have only begun the layoffs of 1 or 2 people from small companies, or the uncounted millions from hiring freezes. That's what a hiring freeze is - someone leaves or retires, and you don't offer that job to anyone else (when normally you would have). Whether the person is hired and then let go, or never hired in the first place, that's a person who will be out of work.

Announced layoffs RESULT in people taking their children out of daycare since there is an unemployed adult at home (layoff of child care worker), in people deciding that they can't go out for pizza every weekend like they did (layoff of waitress at pizza place), and in people not buying clothes, new towels, fancy jam at the supermarket, or Tide (store brand will do). All these actions will eventually result in other people being laid off, but not always in "announcements."

Using the web as a statistical reference seems quite bizarre - thank god we don't base actual govt economic theory and response on this information (?) source.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:01 AM on 03/07/2009
- TheMadHedgeFundTrader See Profile I'm a Fan of TheMadHedgeFundTrader permalink

February nonfarm payroll came in at -651,000, taking the unemployment rate up to 8.1%, a 25 year high. The unemployment rate in California is now well over 10%. There were huge revisions up in the December and January figures. Remember when the market used to have a heart attack over a job loss of 100,000? Those were the days! More than 4.4 million workers have lost their jobs since December, 2007, taking the total unemployed to a record 12.5 million. It may be only a matter of months before we surpass the 1981 peak unemployment rate of 10.8%. These figures suggest that the current quarter GDP could be as low as -8%, the worst since the thirties .www.madhedgefundtrader.com

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:24 PM on 03/06/2009
- KillTheMessenger See Profile I'm a Fan of KillTheMessenger permalink

Well, in my world, when the number of stories about something drops, it mostly means that people are getting tired hearing about it. But I admit that your world might be less cynical than mine.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:33 PM on 03/06/2009
- steelmill See Profile I'm a Fan of steelmill permalink

It's peaked huh,ya right

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:09 PM on 03/06/2009
- DavidBBlack See Profile I'm a Fan of DavidBBlack permalink

Great information, thanks.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:06 PM on 03/06/2009
- billw8017 See Profile I'm a Fan of billw8017 permalink

This is exciting news. The possibility remains that it means nothing at all, but any hopeful sign is to be welcomed.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:58 PM on 03/06/2009
- calluna See Profile I'm a Fan of calluna permalink

I've been monitoring a site called

http://www.layoffdaily.com/

which aggregates news of layoff, furloughs and unemployment stats every day.

I did a quick count of yesterday's real and announced job cuts, furloughs etc. It came to 20,645
Today has been kind -- so far only 3,054 announced cuts...unless the Gov of NJ makes good on his threat to cut 7,000 state jobs. We hear a lot about the big cuts by the big companies, but all those companies and organizations cutting 30, 50, 70 people at a time...those add up, quickly.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:47 PM on 03/06/2009

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