Tuesday, September 16, 2008
The Next To Fail?
16 Sep 2008 08:12 pm
Felix Salmon is worried:
The message is loud and clear: AIG is toast. This is the massive counterparty failure everybody's been scared of, and frankly I'm astonished that the broader stock market isn't plunging as a result. No one is prepared for the repercussions here: the failure of AIG is likely to be an order of magnitude more harmful than the failure of LTCM would have been. And it's not even happening on a Friday, where we could have yet another Emergency Weekend to try to work things out.
Face Of The Day
16 Sep 2008 07:33 pm
Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Robert Mueller listens during a House Judiciary Committee hearing on Captiol Hill September 16, 2008 in Washington, DC. The committee asked Mueller about the FBI's anthrax investigation, allegations of improper collection of information on reporters, the Bureau's approach to the mortgage fraud crisis, and the expanded investigative and intelligence gathering powers resulting from the proposed Attorney General Guidelines concerning the FBI's domestic operations. By Chip Somodevilla/Getty.
Responding To Hanson
16 Sep 2008 07:20 pm
I know that the partisan right is now taking their cues from the lies of the McCain and Palin campaigns, but this sentence from Victor Davis Hanson demands a response:
We've seen that with the Atlantic Monthly pictures and blog rumors about Palin's recent Down Syndrome pregnancy ...
The only Atlantic Monthly picture of McCain is perfectly respectable, and the essay written by someone deeply fond of the man. And our editor has apologized for the photographer's extra-curricular activities, even though he had, in my view, no reason to. And that's a sign of media derangement? It's more class than NRO has ever displayed. By equating the picture selected with those that were rejected and calling them all "Atlantic Monthly pictures," Hanson is deliberately smearing this magazine. I won't let that stand, especially since Hanson must know that these editorial decisions were made long ago, well before the current war between the press and the McCain camp.
As for blog "rumors" about a Down Syndrome pregnancy, all this blog has done is ask for facts and context about a subject that the Palin campaign has put at the center of its message, facts about a baby held up at a convention as a political symbol for the pro-life movement, and cited in Palin's acceptance speech. You do that, you invite questions about it. I make absolutely no apologies for doing my job.
Continue reading "Responding To Hanson" »
Obama's Opportunity On The Economy
16 Sep 2008 06:35 pm
Andrew Romano makes an important point about the economic crisis:
Now that the press and the public are finally paying attention, Obama can't just say that McCain is out of touch and call it a day. He has to explain what he would do differently--and better. He has to sell his plan for righting an economy still reeling from the real estate and mortgage crises--something he shied away from doing today, preferring instead to rely on the "same vague... pitc[h] he has sounded over the past few months for fixing what ails the country.”
My advice: give a speech offering concrete solutions followed by a press conference. I think Obama and Biden should be giving many more press conferences. It is bizarre, to my mind, that one vice-presidential candidate has never given a national one - and we have only six weeks to go. More than bizarre: outrageous.
Pro-Lifers And Amnio, Ctd
16 Sep 2008 06:27 pm
A reader adds:
I think your answer lies in the reader who stated that Palin was also at risk for a neural tube defect. While a baby at risk for DS may not force a woman to have an amnio, a neural tube defect certainly will. That kind of defect is often something a baby cannot survive and is a major reason someone would have a abortion in the last trimester. The baby with that kind of defect could have no chance of survival outside of the womb.
Palin could’ve been looking at a situation where she was carrying to term a fetus that had essentially died. I don’t know what her pro-life conscience would’ve told her to do in that situation, but it could’ve been a reality that she had to face.
Thanks. I can certainly understand the difficulties. Nonetheless, an opponent of abortion in all circumstances would not, surely, have an abortion in the third trimester anyway, unless the mother's life was at risk. If a pro-life woman has a miscarriage that is as much a tragedy as it is for every pregnant mother. But, again, a real pro-lifer would not do anything to increase the chances of such a miscarriage - unless, in Palin's own words, is could affect not the health but the actual life of the mother.
Continue reading "Pro-Lifers And Amnio, Ctd" »
The Perfect GOP Story
16 Sep 2008 06:26 pm
From St Paul, home of Larry Craig's wide stance and Cindy McCain's $300,000 outfit:
He met her in the bar of the swank hotel and invited her to his room. Once there, the woman fixed the drinks and told him to get undressed. And that, the delegate to the Republican National Convention told police, was the last thing he remembered. When he awoke, the woman was gone, as was more than $120,000 in money, jewelry and other belongings.
Quote For The Day
16 Sep 2008 05:46 pm
"Fascist writer Westbrook Pegler, an avowed racist who Sarah Palin approvingly quoted in her acceptance speech for the moral superiority of small town values, expressed his fervent hope about my father, Robert F. Kennedy, as he contemplated his own run for the presidency in 1965, that "some white patriot of the Southern tier will spatter his spoonful of brains in pubic premises before the snow flies." It might be worth asking Governor Palin for a tally of the other favorites from her reading list," - Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (Hat tip: Danny.)
Graphing Lessons
16 Sep 2008 05:41 pm
Justin Wolfers posts competing charts on the candidates' tax plans. Chartjunk's is very helpful, especially when adjusted for the actual contribution to revenues that the successful make:
Quote For The Day II
16 Sep 2008 05:32 pm
“Moose are, truth be told, Élites. They are big and fast and sort of rule the forest. Sarah took that one down a notch. Who’s Élite now, Bullwinkle?” - George Saunders, New Yorker.
Reforming The GOP
16 Sep 2008 05:15 pm
Ross appears disheartened. McCain's campaign is not about reform, I'm afraid, because he has no proposals for reform of anything. And it's not about national security, as the Palin pick proves. It's about power and the lies you need to tell to gain it. That's why this GOP needs to be burned down before it can be rebuilt.
Ralph Nader Talks To A High-Brow Parrot
16 Sep 2008 05:10 pm
When you thought the campaign could not get any weirder:
Fiorina And Palin
16 Sep 2008 04:56 pm
Who could possibly quibble with this:
HOST: "Do you think [Sarah Palin] has the experience to run a major company like Hewlett Packard?"
FIORINA: "No, I don't. But that's not what she's running for."
She's just running to be the potential next president of the United States. Gulp.
Typos
16 Sep 2008 04:55 pm
They've been bad today. My apologies. We're on the road and I used the wrong saline and my eyes have been blurry. I'll try to do better.
Alaskans Protest Palin
16 Sep 2008 04:26 pm
According to Mudflats, the anti-Palin crowds that greeted this joke of a nominee in her return home to Alaska out-numbered those who attended the pro-Palin rally. Mudflats is a liberal Democrat, of course. But the Youtube of the protesters is impressive.
Pro-Lifers And Amnio: More Pros Weigh In
16 Sep 2008 04:23 pm
A reader writes:
I am a maternal fetal medicine specialist (high risk obstetrics) working in the midwest. Talking to women about why they make their decision to have amniocentesis and continue the pregnancy there are some common reasons put forward:-
1.) Many months of anxiety and concern are avoided by a certain diagnosis now rather than certain diagnosis at delivery. Many women say they could not enjoy any aspect of their remaining pregnancy without knowing the diagnosis.
2.) Family, friends and support mechanisms can be prepared
3.) The woman assumes some control over her situation and knows what she has to deal with
From the medical perspective the pregnancy may be managed differently. For example some Downs babies develop a bowel blockage that is usually not seen until 28 weeks. Many Downs babies have heart defects and abnormalities of growth. Such factors may well lead to delivery in a specialised unit rather than a small town.
On the face of it Sarah Palin's actions may appear contradictory, in my experience many women who would not dream of terminating a Downs fetus do exactly the same thing.
I'm grateful for the input. But again: no inherent risk to the life of the mother and an increased risk to the unborn child. And if all of this is designed to prepare for labor in a specialized unit, why did Sarah Palin not seek one? There was one right nearby in Texas where her water broke at 4 am. It's the Children's Medical Center:
Children's is accredited by the Joint Commission, and both U.S.News & World Report and Child magazine have named Children's as one of the nation's top pediatric providers.
So if the main reason for amniocentesis is to prepare for a grueling labor, how do you explain the bizarre behavior of Sarah Palin in the 24 hours after her water broke and she felt contractions?
Mental Health Break
16 Sep 2008 04:13 pm
John McCain gets interrupted:
The Women's Vote
16 Sep 2008 04:13 pm
Obama attacks McCain over equal pay for equal work for women. I've seen this has been brought up a lot by the Obama peeps:
NRO cries "no fair," while Ezra Klein approves. I'm generally skeptical of government's efforts to make markets fairer. I don't like this part of Obama's liberalism.
McCain, Obama And The Issues
16 Sep 2008 04:08 pm
Not everyone agrees with John McCain's campaign manager that this election has nothing to do with the policy choices ahead of us.
As The Bounces Recede
16 Sep 2008 03:53 pm
According to RCP's poll of polls, McCain's post-convention bounce peaked at a 2.9 percent national lead over Obama on September 8. Six days later, it's now at 1.3 percent. Obama's post convention bounce gave him a peak of 6.4 percent on September 2. It was gone by September 6. Pollster's poll of polls gives McCain a national lead of 1.8 percent. Pollster's electoral college prediction still shows a small Obama advantage. RCP's electoral college tally records a small advantage for Obama-Biden in the electoral college. But 538 shows a clear McCain lead in the electoral college.
Now's the time to begin to see the fundamentals emerge after both conventions and the soap opera of Palin temporarily dies down. Basically: it's tied with a tiny edge to McCain in the national vote and a tiny edge to Obama in the electoral college. Gallup's tracking shows the race closing again. My own view is that Palin has all but killed the McCain candidacy. And her real advantage was novelty. Once people realize she has no record of even interest in foreign policy and is a serial liar, her unfavorables will continue to rise.
Big Corn And Fat Asses, Ctd.
16 Sep 2008 03:34 pm
Yglesias wants someone to take on the corn industry as a whole. Ezra chimes in here and explains that pretty much every ingredient you can't pronounce is made of corn.
Palin's Favorables Tank
16 Sep 2008 03:33 pm
Palin's popularity tanks as voters get to see more of her:
The Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos now has Palin's favorability-unfavorability scores at 45-44 -- just a +1. Six days ago, when the poll launched, she was at a 52-35, a +17.
A loss of 16 points in six days. You can fool some of the people ...
Pro-Lifers And Amnio: A Professional OB/GYN's Take
16 Sep 2008 03:15 pm
A reader writes:
Interestingly, I started to write you about this very question a few days ago, and figured there were bigger fish to fry. My background: I'm a board-certified OB/GYN, full professor at a major medical school, with an additional degree in epidemiology. Most of my work involves using the tools of decision analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis to address questions in women's health, both at the level of individual decision making and for policy (for example, looking at the cost-effectiveness of vaccination for HPV in combination with cancer screening). Screening for Down syndrome is something I'm very familiar with, from both a personal clinical perspective as well as a classic teaching tool.
Most pregnant women don't get an amniocentesis. They are offered a combination of ultrasound and blood tests which quantify the risk of Down syndrome (and a few other chromosomal anomalies, some of which are much more severe). If the risk of an anomaly is greater than the risk of a loss from the amniocentesis (about 1 in 200-1 in 300), then an amniocentesis is offered. As women age, the risk increases--for a 35 year old, it's about 1 in 200, which is why amnio is routinely offered. For a 44 year old, the risk is about 1 in 50. In order to be optimal, the ultrasound/blood testing needs to be done in the first trimester--it's possible this pregnancy was diagnosed too late to have it done.
Continue reading "Pro-Lifers And Amnio: A Professional OB/GYN's Take" »
873,000 Arrested For Pot
16 Sep 2008 02:57 pm
A new record. Give the drug warriors four more years and I'm sure they can break a new one. Remember: McCain opposes medical marijuana even for the terminally ill with cancer. Palin smoked pot when it was legal in Alaska.
The War With Pakistan
16 Sep 2008 02:53 pm
In an excellent and prescient piece, Hitchens takes on Pakistan. He's right, I think, to acknowledge that an Afghan-Pakistan war is now a de facto reality and that the Bush administration has just followed Barack Obama's advice and started fighting the core al Qaeda now given refuge by Islamabad. Hitch:
...[Obama] is committed in advance to a serious projection of American power into the heartland of our deadliest enemy. And that, I think, is another reason why so many people are reluctant to employ truthful descriptions for the emerging Afghan-Pakistan confrontation: American liberals can't quite face the fact that if their man does win in November, and if he has meant a single serious word he's ever said, it means more war, and more bitter and protracted war at that—not less.
Yes, it could. The difference is: it would be a war against the real enemy, not one we partly created with the security vacuum we opened up in Iraq. Since I'm not a liberal on these things - despite what today's "conservatives" claim - I can face the idea of a president Obama taking on and finally defeating Osama. In fact, that's the major reason why I favor his candidacy. I want to win the war on terror we are currently losing. And I want all of us in this war - Democrat and Republican. Getting a Democratic president to take responsibility for a war we will have to fight for generations is critical to our long-term success. If it remains a partisan enterprise, used for domestic political points on the Cheney and Rove model, al Qaeda will win.
Continue reading "The War With Pakistan" »
Not Landing The Punch
16 Sep 2008 02:14 pm
Obama goes after McCain's "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" gaffe:
This strategy strikes me as overly reactive. Where is the Obama ad explaining what he would do about this crisis?
Formerly In The Tank
16 Sep 2008 01:44 pm
Richard Cohen airs his disappointment with McCain.
Pro-Lifers And Amnio, Ctd.
16 Sep 2008 01:31 pm
So far, I've learned nothing from my readers that resolves the conundrum of a fervently pro-life woman risking the life of her child even in a small way by an amniocentesis. Here's one of the more succinct first-person testimonies from a pro-life couple I have received so far:
You've made some good observations in your post. My wife and I were discussing this last night. When she was pregnant with our third child, certain tests (blood or urine, I think) suggested that the baby had Down syndrome. So the doc recommended ultrasound. The ultrasound was inconclusive, so the doc recommended amnio. We declined. In our view, there is only one reason to do amnio, and (as you note) there is risk involved in doing it. Therefore, we chose not to do amnio.
So we went forward, knowing that there was some chance our child would have Down syndrome. We told no one, and just worked out the issue in our own hearts. We were at peace and ready for anything. When the child was born, the nurse quickly checked him and whispered in my wife's ear ("He doesn't have it"). As opponents of abortion, that was how we dealt with the situation. I think we are pretty typical.
Palin's decision was atypical for a pro-life mother. Here are some possible explanations:
As a retired military person, I can think of one possibility where this would make sense for a pro-life person to consider amniocentesis.
Continue reading "Pro-Lifers And Amnio, Ctd." »
The Postmodern Campaign
16 Sep 2008 01:01 pm
Jonathan Rauch imagines the next turn in the absurd McCain-Palin campaign. He imagines a McCain-Shcmidt conversation that gos something like this:
"Our tracking polls show age is the public's biggest remaining concern about you, sir. People love Sarah as running mate or VP. But when we test the words 'President Palin' ... "
"So? What are you suggesting?
"We need to go on offense. Our theme is that Barack Obama is too old for the job and that the public needs a younger, more vigorous brand of leadership ...
Continue reading "The Postmodern Campaign" »
The View From Your Window
16 Sep 2008 12:41 pm
Jacksonville, Florida, 2.30 pm.
Obama And Abortion
16 Sep 2008 12:34 pm
The Born Alive Infant Protect Act rears its head again. Here is factcheck.org on Obama's votes. But the decision to put abortion at the front and center of the campaign makes my questions about Palin's decision to put her own child's life at risk of miscarriage from an amniocentesis all the more relevant, no?
McCain Helped Create The Blackberry
16 Sep 2008 11:55 am
Al Gore, call your office. Does McCain use a Blackberry?
The Odd Lies Of Sarah Palin X: The Teleprompter
16 Sep 2008 11:53 am
More absurdity:
At a fundraiser in Canton, Ohio, this evening, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin had an interesting description of her speech to the Republican convention. “There Ohio was right out in front, right in front of me," Palin said. "The teleprompter got messed up, I couldn’t follow it, and I just decided I’d just talk to the people in front of me. It was Ohio.”
Is this true? Again, the strangeness of this lie is that it's easily rebutted by the record:
Continue reading "The Odd Lies Of Sarah Palin X: The Teleprompter" »
Who's To Blame?
16 Sep 2008 11:43 am
Megan doesn't approve of Democrats blaming Bush for the current crisis:
Democrats seem unable, or unwilling to grasp, that to the extent that this is a regulatory problem, the seeds were laid under Clinton, not Bush. There simply haven't been any significant financial regulatory changes over the last eight years that we can point to as the culprit; nor does "stronger enforcement" work as the solution to a crisis when the companies in trouble seem to have been in full compliance with the law.
So no responsibility for not recognizing the problem and not doing anythng about it for almost eight years? I'm not an expert but blaming the current meltdown entirely on ... Clinton seems a stretch to me.
Colbert Bait
16 Sep 2008 11:40 am
Correction
16 Sep 2008 11:23 am
That Youtube of Romney describing John McCain's lies was from earlier this year. My sincere apologies. I have deleted the post. The transcript of the actual remarks are as follows:
ROBERTS: An awful lot of back and forth between you and Senator McCain. And I wonder, just a few days before the primary, is that what the voters want to hear? Didn't they want to hear substance on the issues?
ROMNEY: Oh, I think substance. I think Senator McCain was called out for what everyone has said was a false accusation.
Continue reading "Correction" »
Pro-Lifers And Amniocentesis: Some Questions
16 Sep 2008 10:45 am
An interesting debate has been going on out of the media limelight. Sarah Palin's decision earlier this year to have an amniocentesis to determine if her unborn child had Down Syndrome is not uncontroversial among pro-lifers. I'd be curious to find out from women readers, especially pro-life women readers, what their views of amniocentesis are, and how common it is for totally principled pro-life pregnant women to consent to having them. The reason for the debate is two-fold: a) if you are not considering an abortion, there isn't much point in having an amniocentesis; and b) much more important for a pro-lifer, an amniocentesis poses a small but real risk to the life of an unborn child. According to the Christian News Service:
Technological advances now allow women alternative pre-natal screenings to determine the risks of their child having Down syndrome, including blood tests and ultrasound.
But more reliable results require chromosome diagnostic testing such as amniocentesis, which collects amniotic fluid in the womb by inserting a needle through the woman’s abdominal wall into the uterus.
The procedure increases the normal rate of miscarriage, which is 2 percent to 3 percent, by ½ to 1 percent, according to Dr. Len Leshin, a pediatrician in Texas who has a son with Down syndrome and has written extensively on the subject.
So why would a pro-life woman choose the procedure that could lead to the death of her unborn child rather than the safe, less invasive procedure? I don't know. It's one of many mystifying weirdnesses in Palin;s own account of her pregnancy. Why do you need to know for sure that your baby has DS when it could mean a small risk of killing the child that you're determined to keep alive? Here's the Wikipedia entry on the procedure:
Continue reading "Pro-Lifers And Amniocentesis: Some Questions" »
Pranking CNN
16 Sep 2008 10:13 am
Watch as two guys make out behind CNN's reporter in a story on the Wall Street meltdown. At least some people have kept a sense of humor in all this.
War With Pakistan?
16 Sep 2008 10:09 am
This strikes me as very big news:
Pakistan's military has ordered its forces to open fire if U.S. troops launch another air or ground raid across the Afghan border, an army spokesman said Tuesday.
The orders, which come in response to a highly unusual Sept. 3 ground attack by U.S. commandos, are certain to heighten tensions between Washington and a key ally against terrorism. Although the ground attack was rare, there have been repeated reports of U.S. drone aircraft striking militant targets, most recently on Sept. 12.
Who Is Using Whom?
16 Sep 2008 10:03 am
Tyler Cowen thinks Palin has her own agenda:
The people who are right now the happiest may end up the most concerned. For better or worse, they're about to lose control of their movement.
Who does he think he's kidding? Do we have any idea of any agenda in her past except drilling for oil, the Assemblies of God, and her own ambition? Palin fits the Bush mold, but ratcheted up one more notch toward absurdity, and several more notches toward puppetry. She is a passionate Christianist - no legal abortion ever, no sex education, no gay rights, no embryonic stem cell research, creationism in schools. And she is being tutored by AIPAC and Joe Lieberman on foreign policy: war against Iran, war against Russia, permanent occupation of Iraq, and entrenchment of torture as a key American value.
All she has is ambition, the willingness to lie at any time about anything - and the ability to placate the two central constituencies: the Christianist base and the neocons. She is Bill Kristol's wet dream: Dan Quayle with lipstick.
Push-Polling Jews
16 Sep 2008 10:01 am
Yes, the campaign is in its vile phase: Jon Cohn gets a push-poll phone call spreading hysteria about Obama among Jewish voters.
Ahem
16 Sep 2008 09:27 am
Tina Fey is sexist? It is not sexist to point out that the Palin candidacy is a farce. A man with her non-qualifications, long, long record of demonstrable, outright lies and utter lack of interest in foreign policy would never have been considered for the role.
Make That English Degree Work For You
16 Sep 2008 09:06 am
Ezra Klein has an idea:
I've always thought that the next frontier in vanity industries should be commissioned biographies. Someone should set up a company employing out-of-work, or in-school, writers, and charge $30-$40,000 for beautifully bound, broadly positive, built-to-order biographies. They can even include some pictures. That way, you not only live forever, but get to control your story after you're gone. It's the perfect gift for the man who has everything but literal immortality.
And it can be full of lies! Just make it all up. That's what our national politicians do, isn't it?
Life Of A Smear
16 Sep 2008 08:26 am
Bill Wasik on "the origin of specious."
In Defense Of Lying
16 Sep 2008 08:13 am
Ross Douthat tells us he is very comfortable with outright lies in politics. In fact, it is so faux to care about truth in politics (but never faux to display outrage at journalists asking factual questions about Palin's stories about her own family). He couldn't get worked up about Clinton's lies either, he tells us. Why? Because the ends always justify the means. If you're going to ban all abortion, you just have to tell a few whoppers and demonize a few opponents along the way:
The point of being in national politics is to win elections and govern the country in accordance with whatever goals led you into the arena in the first place, not to please columnists who disagree with you on ideological grounds but appreciate a finely-tuned sense of political principle.
It's really come to this? Notice the avoidance of what is at stake here: the basic question of truth: empirical, checkable, verifiable truth. How naive to care about that.
Call A Press Conference
16 Sep 2008 08:08 am
Judis sends Obama a memo.
McCain: "The Fundamentals Of The Economy Are Strong"
16 Sep 2008 08:06 am
McCain tees up Biden. Biden is showing he was a very good pick to make this kind of argument:
All You Can Do Is Laugh
16 Sep 2008 07:33 am
This parody ad is pretty hilarious. At least, I think it's a parody.
Leaving
16 Sep 2008 06:48 am
When you're plugged into the blogosphere, there is no real getting away any more. But as we leave the Cape at dawn today (and yes, that picture above is dawn from my window, not dusk), I'll have my usual spell of melancholy. Thoreau understood what this place means, and it's wonderful to feel that Atlantic founder keeping us Cape-lovers in good company across the centuries. My head is too full of politics to write anything fitting for our annual trek back home to DC. So I'll just link to a post I wrote last year about Provincetown, the first place the Pilgrims encountered America. It's called "Always."
It expresses my passion and awe for this God-drenched coil of sand in the ocean.
Monday, September 15, 2008
The Politics Of Crisis
15 Sep 2008 09:33 pm
Marc makes a good point about the Wall Street meltdown:
Both McCain and Obama have to strike a balance between acknowledging the crisis and using their authority to convince Americans not to run on their banks and head for the hills. That's what McCain was doing this morning when he said the "fundamentals" of the economy are strong; Obama will strike a different balance.
Given McCain's record of appearing aloof to most people's economic problems, he'd better tread carefully. Call me crazy (and they do) but it strikes me that the incumbent party is not likely to do that well when it is presiding over a financial collapse. Unless people are voting entirely on cultural identity. In which case: death to elitists who know something about economics!
Money Talks
15 Sep 2008 09:32 pm
CNN looks over the candidates ties to Wall Street. Ken Silverstein delves deeper. His bottom line:
So how will the presidential campaigns and congressional candidates seek to politically exploit the collapse of the financial sector? Very, very carefully.
