An expansion of US forces in Iraq is
widely expected. More significant is its expected function.
The Nouri Maliki government is
derided by the Bush Administration. Maliki's government is seen as a plaything of Shia supremicists committed to victory in a sectarian civil war (which is broadly the case). Though Moqtada al-Sadr's followers have left the governing coalition for now, the debacle surrounding the execution of Saddam - orchestrated to press every Shia sectarian button - is ample evidence that communal imperatives now shape the admittedly limited policy options of the Baghdad government.
A US troop surge will be designed to side-line and effectively demobilise domestic Iraqi security forces. This will be a complete reversal of occupation strategy to date. There will be an attempt to smash completely the al-Mahdi militia. The Iraqi government is to be left suspended in mid air, at the whim of the US. It is then to be be re-constructed as a non-sectarian, de-politicised and technocratic regime. For this fantastic project to be realised, it will presumably be neccessary to gut the remaining content of popular democracy .
This cannot be a project attractive to the Iraqi majoritarian government. Little wonder that
Maliki would prefer to leave office.
I have to admit that I'm rather impressed by Christopher Hitchens' prescience, a consequence presumably of his complete absorption of the NeoCon world view. We all had a good laugh when we read, in 2005,
Michael Totten's guileless account of liberal imperialists laying down the law to the natives over dinner and wine. Recall this:
"Christopher Hitchens said to Ghassan Atiyyah: “If the Iraqis were to elect either a Sunni or Shia Taliban, we would not let them take power.” And of course he was right [remarks Totten]. We didn’t invade Iraq so we could midwife the birth of yet another despicable tyranny. “One man, one vote, one time” isn’t anything remotely like a democracy.
"But Atiyyah would have none of that. He exploded in furious rage. “So you’re my colonial master now, eh?!” You have to understand – this man’s voice really carries."
Now Hitchens,
loyal interpreter of His Master's Voice to the remaining credulous lefties willing to listen, prepares the shtick-script to justify a neo-colonial imposition of an authoritarian regime (in the
Jeane Kirkpatrick sense).
Will Bush's strategy work? Of course it bloody well won't work. But let us be in no doubt about what is in the offing. This will be a troop incursion primarily to crush Shia Iraq and to destroy the country's limited capacity for independent government. It is a manouvre to reverse Iranian gains in the region. It may seem unbelievable, but such are the consequences of lame-duck leaders seeking historical vindication: we are on the brink of the second invasion of Iraq.