OK, So on the eve of the Armenian Parliamentary elections, I am sat here, in my relative comfort of the “western world”, in a nation with strong traditions of Democracy, free elections are taken for granted here in the UK, and I must admit, in our recent local elections, I didn’t vote. Mainly because I didn’t have my ballot paper at my University address, my fault entirely…
Anyway, many would say it’s very very wrong of me to be more concerned about Armenia’s election, but I am, I can’t help it, every Armenian knows this could change Armenia over the next few years, and who knows, if I did ever live in Armenia, these results could determine who my own government will be…
So here are my (subjective, and personal) predictions, please feel free to challenge and debate them, everyone has their own feelings on this!
Serge Sargsyan, and the Republican Party, will take an overall victory. I think the vast number of civil servants, and easily scared citizens may well end up giving their votes to this party, as well as a significant number of people who believe in their policy, and their supporters of course.
Next in line I think will be the Prosperous Armenia party, their strong financial backing and support of the President would not have been invested had they not been in line for a victorious finale.
In terms of opposition, as my colleague noted, the strength of feeling towards the opposition is heightened, and I think many of these anger votes will go to Artur Baghdasaryan’s “Country of Law” party. His credibility has recently increased following a government attempt to accuse him of treason by taping a conversation he had with a British Diplomat, asking if they could condemn the elections before election day. What the authorities failed to realise is that when President Kocharyan accuses someone of being a traitor, the public don’t believe him.
The votes will be followed next in line by Raffi Hovhanissian and “Heritage” party .
I think we will be greeted by a pre written, highly predictable speech from Mr Serge Sargsyan, probably commenting on his party’s strong traditions of running Government, and the people choosing the right leaders. Similar speeches can be expected from Bargavach Hayastan. Will they be fraudulent? It’s not for me to say, but with the authorities getting worried, we may see more than expected, but I still don’t think it’ll be enough for the international community to condemn them, and I think the Millennium Challenge money will remain safe.
As for Opposition Protests? A lot may depend on the leaders of the opposition and how they feel about the conduct of the election, but by the look of things, people are ready to take to the streets.
All this said, I dearly hope for clean elections tommorow, so that people in Armenia can at least have some faith restored. I Hope tommorow is something we can be proud of, and feel confident in the figures chosen to lead the country.
We’ll see tommorow.